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If you're wanting to learn more about weather, Lyn-M has a couple of weather books she'd like to give away to a good home. :) 

 

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CET Competition - the scores ongoing

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I plan to post a new table as you're right, I can't edit, and I have several other late entries to add. Might as well wait until after 3rd of July and get it all done in one operation. 

For the time being, these forecasts need to be added ...

18.2 ___ CHRIS.R (+1d)

17.3 ___ DAVID SNOW (+1d), STARGAZER (+2d)

17.1 ___ DON (+1d)

16.8 ___ GODBER.1 (+1d)

16.3 ___ ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (+1d)

Now 64 entries and median remains 17.2

(full edited table to be posted on 4th)

 

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Complete table of entries for July 2017 CET

Temp _ means _ Forecasts

22.0 ___ - - - - -  _ LETTUCING GUTTED

19.7 ___ 2006 ___

19.6 ___ 

19.5 ___ 1983 ___

19.4 ___

19.3 ___

19.2 ____________ 40*C

19.1 ____________ B 87

19.0 ____________

18.9 ____________ POLAR GAEL, DAMI

18.8 ___ 1783 ____

18.7 _ 1976, 1852 _

18.6 ____________

18.5 ____________

18.4 ____________

18.3 ____________

18.2 ____________ CHRIS R (+1d)

18.1 ____________ JONBOY

18.0 ____________ ROGER J SMITH

17.9 ___________ BOBD29, THE PIT, SEASIDE60, DAVEHSUG

17.8 ___________ SUMMER OF 95, MARK 4

17.7 __________ ED STONE, SUMMER BLIZZARD, J10, MARCH (+1d)

17.6 __________ TIMMYTOUR, DOCTOR32

17.5 .________ DR(S)NO, SUMMER SUN, SUNDOG, SINGULARITY

17.4 ________ DAMIANSLAW, COSTA DEL FAL, SYED2878, STATIONARY FRONT, MAN WITH BEARD

17.3 ________ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, DAVID SNOW (+1d), STARGAZER (+2d)

17.2 _______ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, MAPANTZ, STEVE B, WEATHER-HISTORY, MARK BAYLEY

____________________ median value __________________________________ DUNCAN McALISTER

17.1 _______ CONGLETON HEAT, DON (+1d)

17.0 _______ HAMMER, DANCERWITHWINGS

16.9 _______ BORN FROM THE VOID, REEF, RADIATING DENDRITE, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, CARL46WREXHAM

16.8 _________ WEATHER26, DANIEL*, SIMSHADY, GODBER.1 (+1d)

16.7 _ 1981-2010*_ VIRTUALSPHERE, GAEL_FORCE

16.6 ____________ ALEXIS J9

16.5 _ 1971-2000 _ JONATHAN F., DR HOSKING, MULZY

16.4 ____________

16.3 ____________ JEFF C, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (+1d)

16.2 ____________ SNOWRAY

16.1 _ 1961-1990 _

16.0 _ 1659-2016 _

15.9 ____________

15.8 ____________ VIZZY2004

15.7 ____________

15.6 ____________

15.5 ____________

15.4 ____________

15.3 ____________

15.2 ____________

15.1 ____________

15.0 ____________ WHITE CLOUDS

14.8 ____________ LET IT SNOW!

14.7 ____________ RELATIVISTIC

 

14.0 __ 1965 _____

13.6 __ 1879 _____

13.5 __ 1695,1802 

13.4 __ 1816

* 16.7 also 1987-2016 average

___________________________________________________

64 entries, median value 17.2 (five marked+1d, one is +2d)

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Table of entries for August, 2017

21.5 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED

19.2 _ (1995)

18.9 _ (1997)

18.7 _ (1975)

18.6 _ (1947)

18.3 _ (1747, 2003)

18.0 ___

17.9 ___ TIMMYTOUR

17.8 ___ DAMI

17.7 ___

17.6 ___ ROGER J SMITH

17.5 ___

17.4 ___ STEVE B, SUMMER SUN,

17.3 ___ MAPANTZ

17.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, SEASIDE60

17.1 ___ REEF

17.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DANCERWITHWINGS, STEWFOX, DOCTOR32

16.9 ___ THE PIT

16.8 ___ STARGAZER

16.7 ___ VIZZY2004, JEFFC, ED STONE, DAVID SNOW, SINGULARITY

16.6 ___ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER, JONATHANF., DON

16.5 ___ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, STATIONARY FRONT, J10, CHRIS.R, MARK BAYLEY

_______________________________ 16.5 median value __________________________

16.4 _ (1981-2010) _ BOBD29, SUMMER BLIZZARD 

16.3 ___ WEATHER 26, SUNDOG, DAMIANSLAW

16.2 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE, SYED2878, MULZY

16.1 ___ IREMEMBERATLANTIC252, GODBER 1

16.0 ___ POLAR GAEL, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, GAEL_FORCE, MAN WITH BEARD

15.9 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY

15.8 ___ DANIEL*, BORN FROM THE VOID, DAVEHSUG, DUNCAN McALISTER

15.7 ___ SIMSHADY

15.6 ___ ALEXIS J9

15.5 ___

15.4 ___

15.3 ___

15.2 ___ METALTRON

15.1 ___

15.0 ___

14.9 ___ LET IT SNOW!

14.8 ___

14.7 ___ ACCAS

 

14.1 ___ RELATIVISTIC

 

13.5 _ (1674,1683,1844,1845,1956)

13.3 _ (1725)

13.0 _ (1694, 1695)

12.9 _ (1912)

____________________________________________________

55 on time entries, median value 16.5 C

all late entries (1st-3rd Aug) will appear in an updated version of this post,

... I won't be editing them into this one. 

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Table of entries for August, 2017 (updated to include late entries)

 

21.5 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED

19.2 _ (1995)

18.9 _ (1997)

18.7 _ (1975)

18.6 _ (1947)

18.3 _ (1747, 2003)

18.0 ___

17.9 ___ TIMMYTOUR

17.8 ___ DAMI

17.7 ___

17.6 ___ ROGER J SMITH

17.5 ___

17.4 ___ STEVE B, SUMMER SUN,

17.3 ___ MAPANTZ

17.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, SEASIDE60

17.1 ___ REEF

17.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DANCERWITHWINGS, STEWFOX, DOCTOR32

16.9 ___ THE PIT, SNOWRAY (+1d)

16.8 ___ STARGAZER

16.7 ___ VIZZY2004, JEFFC, ED STONE, DAVID SNOW, SINGULARITY

16.6 ___ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER, JONATHANF., DON, JONBOY (+1d)

16.5 ___ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, STATIONARY FRONT, J10, CHRIS.R, MARK BAYLEY

_______________________________ 16.5 median value __________________________

16.4 _ (1981-2010) _ BOBD29, SUMMER BLIZZARD 

16.3 ___ WEATHER 26, SUNDOG, DAMIANSLAW

16.2 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE, SYED2878, MULZY

16.1 ___ IREMEMBERATLANTIC252, GODBER 1

16.0 ___ POLAR GAEL, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, GAEL_FORCE, MAN WITH BEARD

15.9 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY

15.8 ___ DANIEL*, BORN FROM THE VOID, DAVEHSUG, DUNCAN McALISTER

15.7 ___ SIMSHADY, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (+1d)

15.6 ___ ALEXIS J9

15.5 ___

15.4 ___

15.3 ___

15.2 ___ METALTRON

15.1 ___

15.0 ___

14.9 ___ LET IT SNOW!

14.8 ___

14.7 ___ ACCAS

 

14.1 ___ RELATIVISTIC

 

13.5 _ (1674,1683,1844,1845,1956)

13.3 _ (1725)

13.0 _ (1694, 1695)

12.9 _ (1912)

____________________________________________________

55 on time entries, and three marked (+1d) one day late, 58 in total ...

median value 16.5 C

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Table of entries for September 2017 CET forecast

More historical data can be found in post #1 of the September thread. This table only preserves recent normals and a few extremes. This table will list on-time entries. A revised version will be published around 5 September with late entries (4 Sept is a holiday for me and I will be on the road, so don't look for late entries to be posted on that day).

New feature this month -- order of forecasts posted (number in brackets after each name) ... applies to latest forecast provided, edit times are considered in this process (if the value changes, not for missing decimal). Earlier versions of later revised forecasts are not in the queue. Future revisions will attract late penalties and drop out of the queue. 

 

22.6 __ _ _ _ _ _ warmest day (2nd, 1906)

 

19.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (7)

 

17.1 __ CHRIS R (41)

 

16.8 __ DAMI (9) _ _ _ -_ _ _ - _ _ _ warmest (2006)

 

16.6 __ second warmest (1729)

 

15.7 __ ED STONE (8)

15.6 __ MAPANTZ (15)

15.5 __

15.4 __ THE PIT (26)

15.3 __ ROGER J SMITH (38), ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (53)

15.2 __ STEVE B (19), DAVID SNOW (49), SINGULARITY (54)

15.1 __ DANIEL* (22), MARK BAYLEY (42)

15.0 __ YARMY (29), DUNCAN McALISTER (55)

14.9 __ REEF (35), DOCTOR32 (36), SEASIDE 60 (45)

14.8 __ SNOWRAY (30), BORN FROM THE VOID (34), JONATHAN F. (39), MAN WITH BEARD (40)

14.7 __ GODBER1 (32)

14.6 __ BOBD26 (12), DON (46), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (47)

14.5 __ VIZZY2004 (2), SUMMER SUN (6), DR(S)NO (13), SYED2878 (21), STARGAZER (44)

========================== consensus (median) is 14.5 ====================================

14.4 __ WEATHER26 (4), DIAGONAL RED LINE (10), JEFFC (14), I REMEMBER ATLANTIC252 (23)

_________ DAMIANSLAW (43), STATIONARY FRONT (48), J10 (50)

14.3 __ POLAR GAEL (18), DAVEHSUG (56)

14.2 __ DANCERWITHWINGS (16), MULZY (51)

14.1 _ mean 1987-2016 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (27), WEATHER-HISTORY (33)

14.0 _ mean 1981-2010 __ SIMSHADY (5), SUMMER BLIZZARD (17)

13.9 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1), SUNDOG (28), NN2013 (31), POLAR MARITIME (37)

13.8 __

13.7 __ CHRISTOPHER (3)

13.6 __

13.5 __

13.4 __

13.3 __ ALEXISJ9 (20)

13.2 __

13.1 __

13.0 __

12.9 __ TIMMYTOUR (25)

12.8 __

12.7 __ LET IT SNOW! (11)

12.6 __

12.5 __

12.4 __

12.3 __

12.2 __

12,1 __ WEIRPIG (52)

12.0 __

11.9 __ RELATIVISTIC (24)


10.5 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

 4.9 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest day (28th, 1824)

_______________________________________________________________________

56 on-time entries, median 14.5 C ... table including late entries to be posted 5th September. 

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Table of entries for September 2017 CET forecast

More historical data can be found in post #1 of the September thread. This table only preserves recent normals and a few extremes. This table will list on-time entries. A revised version will be published around 5 September with late entries (4 Sept is a holiday for me and I will be on the road, so don't look for late entries to be posted on that day).

New feature this month -- order of forecasts posted (number in brackets after each name) ... applies to latest forecast provided, edit times are considered in this process (if the value changes, not for missing decimal). Earlier versions of later revised forecasts are not in the queue. Future revisions will attract late penalties and drop out of the queue. 

 

22.6 __ _ _ _ _ _ warmest day (2nd, 1906)

 

19.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (7)

 

17.1 __ CHRIS R (41)

 

16.8 __ DAMI (9) _ _ _ -_ _ _ - _ _ _ warmest (2006)

 

16.6 __ second warmest (1729)

 

15.7 __ ED STONE (8)

15.6 __ MAPANTZ (15)

15.5 __

15.4 __ THE PIT (26)

15.3 __ ROGER J SMITH (38), ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (53)

15.2 __ STEVE B (19), DAVID SNOW (49), SINGULARITY (54)

15.1 __ DANIEL* (22), MARK BAYLEY (42)

15.0 __ YARMY (29), DUNCAN McALISTER (55)

14.9 __ REEF (35), DOCTOR32 (36), SEASIDE 60 (45)

14.8 __ SNOWRAY (30), BORN FROM THE VOID (34), JONATHAN F. (39), MAN WITH BEARD (40)

14.7 __ GODBER1 (32), GAEL_FORCE (+1d..1)

14.6 __ BOBD26 (12), DON (46), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (47)

14.5 __ VIZZY2004 (2), SUMMER SUN (6), DR(S)NO (13), SYED2878 (21), STARGAZER (44)

========================== consensus (median) is 14.5 ====================================

14.4 __ WEATHER26 (4), DIAGONAL RED LINE (10), JEFFC (14), I REMEMBER ATLANTIC252 (23)

_________ DAMIANSLAW (43), STATIONARY FRONT (48), J10 (50)

14.3 __ POLAR GAEL (18), DAVEHSUG (56)

14.2 __ DANCERWITHWINGS (16), MULZY (51)

14.1 _ mean 1987-2016 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (27), WEATHER-HISTORY (33)

14.0 _ mean 1981-2010 __ SIMSHADY (5), SUMMER BLIZZARD (17)

13.9 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1), SUNDOG (28), NN2013 (31), POLAR MARITIME (37)

13.8 __

13.7 __ CHRISTOPHER (3), STEWFOX (+1d .. 2)

13.6 __

13.5 __

13.4 __

13.3 __ ALEXISJ9 (20)

13.2 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (+1d .. 3)

13.1 __

13.0 __

12.9 __ TIMMYTOUR (25)

12.8 __

12.7 __ LET IT SNOW! (11)

12.6 __

12.5 __

12.4 __

12.3 __

12.2 __

12,1 __ WEIRPIG (52)

12.0 __

11.9 __ RELATIVISTIC (24)


10.5 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

 4.9 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest day (28th, 1824)

_______________________________________________________________________

56 on-time entries and three more marked +1d

median 14.5 C 

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Table of entries for October 2017 CET forecast

More historical data can be found in post #1 of the October thread. This table only preserves recent normals and a few extremes. This table will list on-time entries. A revised version will be published around 4 October with all late entries added.

The order of forecasts posted (number in brackets after each name) ... applies to latest forecast provided, edit times are considered in this process (if the value changes, not for clarified numbers). Earlier versions of later revised forecasts are not in the queue. Future revisions will attract late penalties and drop out of the queue. 

 

20.2 __ _ _ _ _ _ warmest day (1st, 1985)

 

15.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (11)

 

13.3 __ xxxx (x) _ _ _ -_ _ _ - _ _ _ warmest (2001)

 

13.1 __ second warmest (2005)

 

12.7 __ ROGER J SMITH (54)

12.6 __ 

12.5 __

12.4 __ ED STONE (12)

12.3 __ 

12.2 __ 

12.1 __ 

12.0 __ 

11.9 __ 

11.8 __ 

11.7 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (32)

11.6 __ MAPANTZ (8)

11.5 __ SUMMER SUN (26), BLAST FROM THE PAST (45)

11.4 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (25), REEF (43)

11.3 __ MAN WITH BEARD (35)

11.2 __ WEATHER26 (4), BORN FROM THE VOID (31)

11.1 _ POLAR GAEL (22), SEASIDE 60 (34), DAMIANSLAW (37), MARK BAYLEY (42), STATIONARY FRONT (51)

11.0 _  BOBD29 (16),GAEL_FORCE (38)

10.9 __ mean 1987-2016 __ JVENGE (15), DANCER WITH WINGS (27), MULZY (39)

10.8 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1), SNOWRAY (24)

10.7 __ mean 1981-2010 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (13), SINGULARITY (49), DAVEHSUG (55)

10.6 __ JONATHAN F. (18), DON(45), DUNCAN McALISTER (46), J10 (50), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (52)

========================== consensus (median) is 10.6 ====================================

10.5 __ STEVEB (5), DR(S)NO (28), GODBER.1 (33), SYED2878 (34), STEWFOX (41), THE PIT (44)

______ POLAR MARITIME (53)

10.4 __ SIMSHADY (6), SUNDOG (30), DAVID SNOW (47), CHRIS R (57)

10.3 __ JEFF C (19), STARGAZER (56)

10.2 __ DANIEL* (23). WEATHER-HISTORY (40)

10.1 __ PEGG24 (2), PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER (10)

10.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE (21), JONBOY (36)

 9.9 __ NN2013 (7)

 9.8 __ VIZZY2004 (3)

 9.7 __ ALEXISJ9 (20)

 9.6 __

 9.5 __

 9.4 __ LET IT SNOW! (17)

 9.3 __ ROSS ANDREW HEMPHILL (29)

 9.2 __

 9,1 __ RELATIVISTIC (14)

 9.0 __

 8.8 __ SUMMER of 95 (48)


 5.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest (1740)

 0.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest day (29th, 1895)

_______________________________________________________________________

57 on-time entries, median 10.6 C ... table including late entries to be posted 4th October. 

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Table of entries for October 2017 CET forecast

More historical data can be found in post #1 of the October thread. This table only preserves recent normals and a few extremes. This table lists 57 on-time as well as three late entries. 

The order of forecasts posted (number in brackets after each name) ... applies to latest forecast provided, edit times are considered in this process (if the value changes, not for clarified numbers). Earlier versions of later revised forecasts are not in the queue. Late entries are marked (L-1) to (L-3) for their order of appearance, the number of days late happens to be the same as those numbers this month. 

 

20.2 __ _ _ _ _ _ warmest day (1st, 1985)

 

15.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (11)

 

13.3 __ -_ _ _ - _ _ _ warmest (2001)

 

13.1 __ second warmest (2005)

 

12.7 __ ROGER J SMITH (54)

12.6 __ 

12.5 __

12.4 __ ED STONE (12)

12.3 __ 

12.2 __ 

12.1 __ 

12.0 __ 

11.9 __ 

11.8 __ 

11.7 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (32)

11.6 __ MAPANTZ (8)

11.5 __ SUMMER SUN (26), BLAST FROM THE PAST (45)

11.4 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (25), REEF (43)

11.3 __ MAN WITH BEARD (35)

11.2 __ WEATHER26 (4), BORN FROM THE VOID (31)

11.1 _ POLAR GAEL (22), SEASIDE 60 (34), DAMIANSLAW (37), MARK BAYLEY (42), STATIONARY FRONT (51)

11.0 _  BOBD29 (16),GAEL_FORCE (38)

10.9 __ mean 1987-2016 __ JVENGE (15), DANCER WITH WINGS (27), MULZY (39)

10.8 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1), SNOWRAY (24)

10.7 __ mean 1981-2010 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (13), SINGULARITY (49), DAVEHSUG (55)

10.6 __ JONATHAN F. (18), DON(45), DUNCAN McALISTER (46), J10 (50), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (52)

========================== consensus (median) is 10.6 ====================================

10.5 __ STEVEB (5), DR(S)NO (28), GODBER.1 (33), SYED2878 (34), STEWFOX (41), THE PIT (44)

____________ POLAR MARITIME (53)

10.4 __ SIMSHADY (6), SUNDOG (30), DAVID SNOW (47), CHRIS R (57), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (L-3)

10.3 __ JEFF C (19), STARGAZER (56)

10.2 __ DANIEL* (23). WEATHER-HISTORY (40)

10.1 __ PEGG24 (2), PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER (10), DAMI (L-1)

10.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE (21), JONBOY (36)

 9.9 __ NN2013 (7)

 9.8 __ VIZZY2004 (3)

 9.7 __ ALEXISJ9 (20)

 9.6 __

 9.5 __

 9.4 __ LET IT SNOW! (17)

 9.3 __ ROSS ANDREW HEMPHILL (29)

 9.2 __ TIMMYTOUR (L-2)

 9,1 __ RELATIVISTIC (14)

 9.0 __

 8.8 __ SUMMER of 95 (48)


 5.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest (1740)

 0.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest day (29th, 1895)

_______________________________________________________________________

57 on-time entries, and three late, median 10.6 C ... 

... late entries marked (L-1) to (L-3), this is both the order of posting and the number of days late.

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November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- table of entries

 

13.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED (33)

10.1 ... ... ... ... ... 1994 -- warmest Nov

 8.8 ... RADIATING DENDRITE (10), VIRTUALSPHERE (20)

 8.5 ... ISOLATED FROST (14)

 8.4 ... 

 8.3 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (28), DAVEHSUG (55)

 8.2 ... STEVEB (6)

 8.1 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD (36)

 8.0 ...MAN WITH BEARD (66)

 7.9 ... VIZZY2004 (2), SNOWRAY (44)

 7.8 ... BOBD29 (12), JONATHAN F. (16), SUMMER SUN (40), LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO (46), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (63)

 7.7 ...SUNDOG (43), TIMMYTOUR (48)

 7.6 ... DAVID SNOW (1), CHRISTOPHER (7), REEF (50), J10 (60)

 7.5 ... THE PIT (39). DON (68)

 7.4 ... STATIONARY FRONT (42), BORN FROM THE VOID (58)

 7.3 ... HAD WORSE (23), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (53)

 7.2 ... mean 1987-2016 ... ... WEATHER 26 (4), DOCTOR32 (51), JVENGE (56), MARK BAYLEY (61)

 7.1 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ROGER J SMITH (59)

 7.0 ... ED STONE (19), SINGULARITY (52), MULZY (62)

================================== consensus value 7.0 ===============================

 6.9 ... DAMI (11), COLDEST WINTER (41), GAEL_FORCE (57),  STEWFOX (65)

 6.8 ... SIMSHADY (3), JEFF C (22), DIAGONAL RED LINE (32), SYED2878 (35)

 6.7 ... POLAR GAEL (25), 

 6.6 ... ALEXISJ9 (5), NN2013 (8), MAPANTZ (37), JONBOY (45), METALTRON (67)

 6.5 ... DANCER WITH WINGS (21), DAMIANSLAW (34)

 6.4 ... WEATHER-HISTORY (45)

 6.3 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (15), BOOFERKING (49), GODBER.1 (54)

 6.2 ... EASY-OASY (9), PEGG24 (29)

 6.1 ...DKEANE3 (30), DANIEL* (38)

 6.0 ... DR(S)NO (18)

 5.9 ... STARGAZER (27)

 5.8 ... CHRIS.R (64)

 5.6 ... MORE SNOW (17)

 5.3 ... JBM WEATHER FOREVER (31)

 4.9 ... RELATIVISTIC (24)

 4.1 ... WEIRPIG (26)

 2.8 ... ... ... ... ... 1782 -- coldest Nov

 2.1 ... LET IT SNOW! (13)

____________________________________________________________________________

68 on-time entries, median value 7.0 C.

Numbers in brackets refer to order of entries... if an entry is edited or superseded by a later entry, the order for that later entry or edit applies and not the time stamp of the first entry that was later changed. (e.g. Stewfox entry #7 (7.7 C) replaced by entry #65 (6.9 C)).

... table will be edited or reposted with late entries -- you can enter until end of 3rd of November -- good luck everyone (last month of this contest year) ,,,

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November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- table of entries (including late)

 

13.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED (33)

10.1 ... ... ... ... ... 1994 -- warmest Nov

 8.8 ... RADIATING DENDRITE (10), VIRTUALSPHERE (20)

 8.5 ... ISOLATED FROST (14)

 8.4 ... 

 8.3 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (28), DAVEHSUG (55)

 8.2 ... STEVEB (6)

 8.1 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD (36)

 8.0 ...MAN WITH BEARD (66)

 7.9 ... VIZZY2004 (2), SNOWRAY (44)

 7.8 ... BOBD29 (12), JONATHAN F. (16), SUMMER SUN (40), LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO (46),

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... FROZE WERE THE DAYS (63)

 7.7 ...SUNDOG (43), TIMMYTOUR (48)

 7.6 ... DAVID SNOW (1), CHRISTOPHER (7), REEF (50), J10 (60)

 7.5 ... THE PIT (39). DON (68)

 7.4 ... STATIONARY FRONT (42), BORN FROM THE VOID (58), DUNCAN McALISTER (L-1c)

 7.3 ... HAD WORSE (23), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (53), SEASIDE60 (L-1a)

 7.2 ... mean 1987-2016 ... ... WEATHER 26 (4), DOCTOR32 (51), JVENGE (56), MARK BAYLEY (61)

 7.1 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ROGER J SMITH (59)

 7.0 ... ED STONE (19), SINGULARITY (52), MULZY (62)

================================== consensus value 7.0 ===============================

 6.9 ... DAMI (11), COLDEST WINTER (41), GAEL_FORCE (57),  STEWFOX (65)

 6.8 ... SIMSHADY (3), JEFF C (22), DIAGONAL RED LINE (32), SYED2878 (35)

 6.7 ... POLAR GAEL (25), 

 6.6 ... ALEXISJ9 (5), NN2013 (8), MAPANTZ (37), JONBOY (45), METALTRON (67)

 6.5 ... DANCER WITH WINGS (21), DAMIANSLAW (34)

 6.4 ... WEATHER-HISTORY (45)

 6.3 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (15), BOOFERKING (49), GODBER.1 (54)

 6.2 ... EASY-OASY (9), PEGG24 (29)

 6.1 ...DKEANE3 (30), DANIEL* (38)

 6.0 ... DR(S)NO (18)

 5.9 ... STARGAZER (27)

 5.8 ... CHRIS.R (64)

 5.6 ... MORE SNOW (17)

 5.3 ... JBM WEATHER FOREVER (31)

 5.2 ... ROBBIE GARRETT (L-1b)

 4.9 ... RELATIVISTIC (24)

 4.1 ... WEIRPIG (26)

 2.8 ... ... ... ... ... 1782 -- coldest Nov

 2.1 ... LET IT SNOW! (13)

____________________________________________________________________________

68 on-time entries (numbers in brackets refer to order of entries), and three late (all one day, marked L-1a, b and c) median value 7.0 C.

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October 2017 Figures

CET this month - 12.4c

This month only Ed Stone got it spot on, with Roger J Smith and I remember Atlantic 252 not far behind.

image.thumb.png.243474ddcfe8fc243e38d0db564b8167.pngimage.thumb.png.c093732ec9b5dca8cf538e64330898d3.pngimage.thumb.png.9ba734a140945746a67555955f432526.png

Seasonal - All change with the 1-2-3 now virtualsphere, I remember Atlantic 252 and Radiating Dendrite.

Overall - a slight change at the top with

3rd. Weather 26 remaining in 3rd.
2nd. daveshug (was 1st last month),
1st. I remember Atlantic 252 (was 2nd last month),

Oct 2017 CET.pdf
Oct 2017 CET New.xlsx

 

Edited by J10

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August 2017 Results

Monthly - Only one player got 15.6c, Alexisj9.

Seasonal - The top 3 is

1. simshady,
2. Daniel*
3. BornFromTheVoid

Overall - The top 3 is

1. davehsug (1st last month)
2. I remember Atlantic 252 (2nd)
3. Weather26 (4th)

This month saw the best entries coming late in the process, probably due to the cooler weather becoming more apparent.

Resubmitted Excel sheets and PDF sheets.

August 2017 CET.pdf
August 2017 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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September 2017 Results

Firstly a big thank you to Roger for his massive help in running the comp each month.:clap:

Based on the confirmed 13.5c figure this month. No player got the figure spot on, but 3 players were 0.2c out.

Christopher (1st)
Alexis (2nd)
stewfox (3rd)

and this is the order for the Seasonal comp, (in brackets above). :clap:

Overall there is no change in the top 3 which remains

davehsug (1st)
I remember Atlantic 252 (2nd)
Weather26 (3rd)

:clap:

Resubmitted Excel sheets and PDF sheets.

Sept 2017 CET.xlsx
Sept 2017 CET.pdf

Edited by J10
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July 2017 Results

Now that the CET figure is "finally" in.I have this months figures.

Monthly - 4 players got 16.8c bang on. Weather 26, Changing Skies and simshady.

Seasonal - All Change at the top, with the top 3 vitualsphere, Changing Skies and simshady.

Overall the top 3 is

1st daveshug (still top)
2nd I remember Atlantic 252 (was 3rd)
3rd reef (was 7th)

Resubmitted Excel sheets and PDF sheets.

July 2017 CET.xlsx
July 2017 CET.pdf

Edited by J10
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June 2017 Results

Relativistic won June getting it spot on at 16.0c and leads the Seasonal comp, LetItSnow! and Roger J Smith were 0.1c out for June, and are 2nd and 3rd respectively in the seasonal competition.

Overall the 1-2-3 is

1. davehsug (1st last month)
2. The PIT (5th last month, only 0.2c out th
is month)
3. I remember Atlantic 252 (2nd)

As ever any problems let me know.

Resubmitted Excel sheets and PDF sheets.

June 2017 CET.xlsx
June 2017 CET.pdf

Edited by J10
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Table of entries for December CET forecast contest

12.0__ LETTUCING GUTTED (20)

 9.7 _warmest (2015)

 7.0 __ CHRIS BELL-NOT THE WEATHERMAN (56)

 6.6 __

 6.5 __ SYED2878 (45)

 6.4 __

 6.3 __

 6.2 __ DAMI (4), I REMEMBER AT:LANTIC 252 (13)

 6.1 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (59)

 6.0 __

 5.9 __ WEATHER 26 (14), STATIONARY FRONT (15), COLDEST WINTER @(L1-4)@

 5.8 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (8)

 5.7 __

 5.6 __ VIZZY2004 (1), DIAGONAL RED LINE (17)

 5.5 __ DR (S) NO (22), TIMMYTOUR (37), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (55), MARK BAYLEY (70)

 5.4 __

 5.3 __ PEGG24 (3), BOBD29 (18), FESTIVEFREEZE @(L1-2)@

 5.2 __

 5.1 __ MAPANTZ (10)

 5.0 _average 1987-2016 ... ... ... THE PIT (12), RELATIVISTIC (48)

 4.9 __ DKEANE3 (30), METALTRON (66)

 4.8 __ STEVE B (20), DON (67)

 4.7 __ MAN WITH BEARD (71)

 4.6 _average 1981-2010 ... ... ... SUMMER BLIZZARD (27), TERMINAL MORAINE (53)

 4.5 __ SUNDOG (40)

 4.4 __ STARGAZER (29), REEF (54), DAVEHSUG (65)

 4.3 __ BORN FROM THE VOID (34), SNOWRAY @(L1-3)@

 4.2 __ ALEXIS J9 (23), STEWFOX (25), SUMMER SUN (35), GODBER.1 (62)

==================== Consensus (median) 4.2 ============================

 4.1 __ JEFF C (21), NORRANCE (44)

 4.0 __ POLAR GAEL (24), GAEL_FORCE (46)

 3.9 __ V IS FOR VERY COLD (2), SEASIDE 60 (39), NN2013 (41), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (58)

___________ DAVID SNOW (63), THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (68)

 3.8 __ CHEEKY_MONKEY (16)

 3.7 __ SIMSHADY (9), VIRTUALSPHERE (31), DAMIANSLAW (38), MULZY (50), MOORLANDER (51)

____________ J10 (64), SINGULARITY (69)

 3.6 __ WEATHER-HISTORY (43)

 3.5 __ ROBBIE GARRETT (32)

 3.4 __ED STONE (33), CHRIS R (60)

 3.3 __

 3.2 __ DOCTOR32 (47)

 3.1 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (7), BOOFERKING  @(L1-1)@

 3.0 __ DANCER WITH WINGS (36)

 2.9 __ MATTHEW. (28), KENTISH MAN (57)

 2.8 __

 2.7 __ LET IT SNOW! (11)

 2.6 __ DANIEL* (26)

 2.5 __ DUNCAN McALISTER (61)

 2.4 __ MORE SNOW (52)

 2.3 __

 2.2 __ JONBOY (49)

 2.1 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER (6)

 2.0 __

 1.9 __ WEIRPIG (5), ROGER J SMITH (42)

 0.6 __ COMET @@(L2-1)@@

--0.8 __ coldest (1890)

________________________________

76 entries, 71 on time, four marked 1d late and one 2d late.

Numbers in brackets refer to order of entry. For late, the order is L1-1 to L1-4 then last entry L2-1.

Consensus (median) is 4.2 C.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

 

Table of entries for December EWP forecast contest

200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

193.9 _wettest (1876)

122.6 __ V FOR VERY COLD

119.1 __ PEGG24

114.5 __ TIMMYTOUR

111.3 __ TERMINAL MORAINE

110.1 __ DR (S) NO

109.5 __ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

103.0 __ JONBOY

101.6 __ VIZZY2004, REEF

101.0 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS

100.0 __ RELATIVISTIC

 99.2 __ SIMSHADY

 98.3 __ average 1987-2016

 97.3 __ average 1981-2010

 97.0 __ JEFF C

 90.5 __ STEVE B

 90.3 __ DKEANE3

 90.0 __ STEWFOX, NORRANCE, MULZY

 88.2 __ BORN FROM THE VOID

 85.4 __ CHRIS. R

 84.0 __ THE_PIT

 82.0 __ SEASIDE 60, MOORLANDER

 80.8 __ DAMI

 77.0 __ MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY

 75.5 __ SYED2878

 75.1 __ POLAR GAEL

 75.0 __ ED STONE, VIRTUALSPHERE, J10

 72.0 __ DANIEL*

 69.0 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER

 68.5 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 68.0 __ BOBD29, BOOFERKING (+1d)

 67.4 __ ALEXIS J9 

 67.0 __ MORE SNOW

 66.0 __ GODBER.1

 65.0 __ DAVID SNOW

 62.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 60.0 __ DON

 58.0 __ DOCTOR32

 55.0 __ STARGAZER

 53.3 __ STATIONARY FRONT

 53.0 __ DAVEHSUG

 50.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+1d)

 49.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY

 41.0 __ WEIRPIG

 40.5 __ ROGER J SMITH

 _8.9 __ driest (1788)

____________________________________________________

51 entries, 49 on time and 2 marked (+1d).

The median value of these forecasts is 26th ranked and that is 77.0 mm.

================================================ 

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January 2018 CET Forecasts

_ _ _ _ ___ note: EWP forecasts follow in a second table of entries ___ _

 

... ... numbers in this table shown in brackets after forecaster names indicate order of (last edited) entry ... ... there are 55 on time entries, then the order becomes (L1-n) for one day late, (L2-n) for two days late and (L3-n) for three days late. ...

 

 9.5 ... LETTUCING GUTTED (6)

 7.5 ... 1916 (warmest)

 6.9 ... SHANICE (3)

 6.8 ... FOZFOSTER (27)

 6.7 ... CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN (21)

 6.5 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (19), SYED2878 (38)

 6.2 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (9)

 6.1 ... VIRTUALSPHERE (20)

 6.0 ... 

 5.9 ... VIZZY2004 (4), SNOWRAY (29)

 5.8 ...

 5.7 ... 

 5.6 ...

 5.5 ...

 5.4 ... STEVE B (7)

 5.3 ... STARGAZER (34), POLAR GAEL (L1-3)

 5.2 ... NORRANCE (31)

 5.1 ... PEGG24 (17), DAMIANSLAW (35)

 5.0 ... DR(S)NO (30), DOCTOR 32 (39), BORN FROM THE VOID (L1-5)

 4.9 ... STEWFOX (32), REEF (48), SINGULARITY (L1 - 1) 

 4.8 ... DAMI (11), CASTELLANUS 80 (46)

 4.7 _ 1988-2017 average ... SUMMER SUN (2), ED STONE (15), SUNDOG (44)

 4.6 ... MARK BAYLEY (33)

 4.5 ... DIAGONAL RED LINE (23), THE PIT (36), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (55)

 4.4 _1981-2010 average ... WEATHER 26 (1), SUMMER BLIZZARD (12), MAN WITH BEARD (49)

 4.3 ... RADIATING DENDRITE (25), DKEANE3 (42)

 4.2 ... MAPANTZ (40), DUNCAN McALISTER (47), DON (L1-7)

 4.1 ... DANCERWITHWINGS (18), WEATHER-HISTORY (45), RAIN RAIN RAIN (L2-1)

 4.0 ... ALEXISJ9 (8), MULZY (38)

 3.9 ... KENTISH MAN (50), DAVID SNOW (52)

 3.8 ... BLAST FROM THE PAST (L2-2)

 3.7 ... SIMSHADY (13)

 3.6 ... GODBER 1 (37)

 3.5 ... METALTRON (L1-2), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (L1-4)

 3.4 ... STATIONARY FRONT (54)

 3.3 ... JEFF C (16), DAVEHSUG (L1-6), SEASIDE 60 (L1-8)

 3.2 ... IAPENNELL (22)

 3.1 ... NN2013 (10)

 3,0 ...

 2.9 ... RELATIVISTIC (14)

 2.8 ... TIMMYTOUR (28), BOOFERKING (51)

 2.7 ... ROGER J SMITH (26)

 2.6 ...

 2.5 ... DANIEL* (41)

 2.4 ... JONBOY (43)

 2.3 ... BOBD29 (24)

 2.2 ... CHRIS.R (53)

 2.1 ...

 2.0 ...

--3.1 ... 1795 (coldest)

--3.3 ... LET IT SNOW! (5)

=

55 on time entries and 10 late by 1 or 2 days ... median (consensus) is 4.4 C.

==================================================================

 

January 2018 EWP Forecasts

 

200.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

184.6 ... 2014 (wettest)

153.0 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER

148.0 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

123.0 ... JEFF C

120.0 ... FOZFOSTER, REEF

119,0 ... ALEXISJ9

115.4 ... CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

114,0 ... SINGULARITY

111.1 ... DKEANE3

110.0 ... STEVE B

108.0 ... MULZY

106.0 ... STARGAZER, STEWFOX

105.0 ... SYED2878, BORN FROM THE VOID (+1d)

102.0 ... POLAR GAEL (+1d)

101.0 ... VIZZY2004

100.0 ... DR(S)NO

 98.0 ... SIMSHADY

 97.9 ... 1988-2017 average

 97.0 ... JONBOY

 96.0 ... GODBER.1

 93.0 ... 1981-2010 average ... BOBD29

 92.4 ... MAPANTZ

 90.0 ... IAPENNELL, DON (+1d)

 89.0 ... PEGG24, DANIEL*

 86.0 ... STATIONARY FRONT

 85.0 ... WEATHER 26, BOOFERKING, SEASIDE 60 (+1d)

 78.0 ... DAMI, DOCTOR32

 76.0 ... MIDLANDS ICE AGE (+1d)

 75.0 ... WEATHER-HISTORY, DAVID SNOW

 74.0 ... CASTELLANUS80

 73.0 ... RAIN RAIN RAIN (+1d)

 72.0 ... RADIATING DENDRITE

 70.0 ... RELATIVISTIC, NORRANCE

 67.5 ... ROGER J SMITH

 66.0 ... ED STONE

 62.0 ... DAVEHSUG (+1d)

 60.0 ... THE PIT

 48.2 ... CHRIS.R

 35.0 ... BLAST FROM THE PAST (+2d)

 34.0 ... TIMMYTOUR

 16.6 ... 1997 (driest in recent years)

 04.4 ... 1766 (driest)

 49 entries, consensus (median value) is 90 mm.

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Scoring summary for EWP contest Dec 2017

ACTUAL VALUE _ 113.7 (196th driest and 57th wettest in series 1766-2017)

The closest forecast would have held the same rank as the actual value, therefore under the rules, 0.0 deduction. The least accurate forecast was more than 50 ranks out, so under the rules scores 0.0. There were 51 entries or 50 intervals which neatly divides to 0.2 per ranking. In my scoring system, order of entry does not matter so ties are all given the same score and however many intervals that uses up applies to the next ranked forecast(s). Consensus and the two recent normals get scores based on the rest of the scoring but do not influence other scores. 

Two scores marked # received 0.2 late deductions. 

 

Score __ Forecast ___ Forecaster

10.0 ___ 114.5 ______ TIMMYTOUR

 9.8 ___ 111.3 _______TERMINAL MORAINE

 9.6 ___ 110.1 _______DR (S) NO

 9.4 ___ 109.5 ______ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

 9.2 ___ 119.1 ______ PEGG24

 9.0 ___ 122.6 ______ V FOR VERY COLD

 8.8 ___ 103.0 ______ JONBOY

 8.6 ___ 101.6 ______ VIZZY2004, REEF

 8.2 ___ 101.0 ______ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS

 8.0 ___ 100.0 ______ RELATIVISTIC

 7.8 ____ 99.2 ______ SIMSHADY

 7.7 ____ 98.3 ______ average 1987-2016

 7.6 ____ 97.3 ______ average 1981-2010

 7.6 ____ 97.0 ______ JEFF C

 7.4 ____ 90.5 ______ STEVE B

 7.2 ____ 90.3 ______ DKEANE3

 7.0 ____ 90.0 ______ STEWFOX, NORRANCE, MULZY

 6.4 ____ 88.2 ______ BORN FROM THE VOID

 6.2 ____ 85.4 ______ CHRIS. R

 6.0 ____ 84.0 ______ THE_PIT

 5.8 ____ 82.0 ______ SEASIDE 60, MOORLANDER

 5.4 ____ 80.8 ______ DAMI

 5.2 ____ 77.0 ______ MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY (consensus also)

 4.8 ____ 75.5 ______ SYED2878

 4.6 ____ 75.1 ______ POLAR GAEL

 4.4 ____ 75.0 ______ ED STONE, VIRTUALSPHERE, J10

 3.8 ____ 72.0 ______ DANIEL*

 3.6 ____ 69.0 ______ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER

 3.4 ____ 68.5 ______ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 3.2 ____ 68.0 ______ BOBD29, BOOFERKING (+1d) # (score 3.0)

 2.8 ____ 67.4 ______ ALEXIS J9 

 2.6 ____ 67.0 ______ MORE SNOW

 2.4 ____ 66.0 ______ GODBER.1

 2.2 ____ 65.0 ______ DAVID SNOW

 2.0 ____ 62.0 ______ RADIATING DENDRITE

 1.8 ____ 60.0 ______ DON

 1.6 ____ 58.0 ______ DOCTOR32

 1.4 ____ 55.0 ______ STARGAZER

 1.2 ____ 53.3 ______ STATIONARY FRONT

 1.0 ____ 53.0 ______ DAVEHSUG

 0.8 ____ 50.0 ______ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+1d) # (score 0.6)

 0.6 ____ 49.0 ______ WEATHER-HISTORY

 0.4 ____ 41.0 ______ WEIRPIG

 0.2 ____ 40.5 ______ ROGER J SMITH

 0.0 ___ 200.0 ______ LETTUCING GUTTED

_______________________________________________________________

 

 

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February 2018 CET Forecasts

_ _ _ _ ___ note: EWP forecasts follow in a second table of entries ___ _

 

... ... numbers in this table shown in brackets after forecaster names indicate order of (last edited) entry ... ... there are 72 on time entries, then the order becomes (L1-n) for one day late, (L2-n) for two days late and (L3-n) for three days late. ...

 

10.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED (1)

 7.9 ... 1779 (warmest) ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (15)

 7,5 ,,, SYED2878 (24) 

 6.8 ... NORTHWEST SNOW (10)

 6.7 ... 

 6.5 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC252 (29)

 6.2 ... 

 6.1 ... 

 6.0 ... 

 5.9 ... STEVE B (18)

 5.8 ... BLAST FROM THE PAST (36)

 5.7 ... VIRTUALSPHERE (20)

 5.6 ...

 5.5 ...

 5.4 ... JAMES M (9)

 5.3 ... SUMMER SUN (13)

 5.2 ... WEATHER26 (4). KIRKCALDY WEATHER (14), RADIATING DENDRITE (16)

... ... ... ... ... CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWEATHERMAN (38), TIMMYTOUR (L1-3)

 5.1 ... 

 5.0 ... ROSS90 (12), CASTELLANUS80 (28), DIAGONAL RED LINE (31)

 4.9 ... PEGG24 (6), LETTERBOXER (33)

 4.8 _ 1988-2017 average ...  DAMI (5), MAPANTZ (40). MARK BAYLEY (42), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (58)

 4.7 ... SIMSHADY (3), STARGAZER (25), REEF (46), J10 (49), SUNDOG (53)

 4.6 ... THE PIT (34)

 4.5 ... DR(S)NO (27), WEATHER-HISTORY (37)

 4.4 _1981-2010 average ...  BOBD29 (11), SUMMER BLIZZARD (35)

 4.3 ... JEFF C (19), DANCERWITHWINGS (26),

 4.2 ... FOZFOSTER (2)

 4.1 ... GAEL_FORCE (47)

 4.0 ... POLAR GAEL (21), DAVEHSUG (66)

 3.9 ... ALEXIS J9 (43)

 3.8 ... VIZZY2004 (17), THUNDERSNOW DAYS (L1-1)

 3.7 ... ED STONE (7), DAMIANSLAW (54)

 3.6 ... DOCTOR32 (32), BORN FROM THE VOID (48), DON (68)

 3.5 ... MAN WITH BEARD (57)

 3.4 ... KENTISH MAN (50), MULZY (52), SKY FULL (L2-1)

 3.3 ... DKEANE3 (45). OPTIMUS PRIME (55), STEWFOX (64), SEASIDE 60 (71)

 3.2 ... DAVID SNOW (56)

 3.1 ... NORRANCE (L1-2)

 3,0 ...NN2013 (30),

 2.9 ... MIDLANDS ICE AGE (22)

 2.8 ... DUNCAN McALISTER (L1-4)

 2.7 ... JONBOY (39), SNOWRAY (65)

 2.6 ... ROGER J SMITH (72)

 2.5 ... 

 2.4 ... SINGULARITY (51), RAIN RAIN RAIN (67)

 2.3 ... 

 2.2 ... CHRIS R (60), GODBER 1 (69)

 2.1 ... DANIEL* (23), GREAT PLUM (70)

 2.0 ... METALTRON (63)

 1.9 ... RELATIVISTIC (41)

 1.7 ... STATIONARY FRONT (59)

 1.4 ... SLEETY (L2-2)

 0.8 ... STEVE MURR (44)

 0.6 ... LET IT SNOW! (8)

--0.3 ... FEB1991BLIZZARD (62)

--1.9 ... 1947 (coldest)

--2.0 ... COMET (61)

 

72 on time entries and 6 late by 1 or 2 days ... median (consensus) is 4.0 C.

==================================================================

 

February 2018 EWP Forecasts

 

500.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

252.0 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC252

158.6 ... 1833 (wettest)

143.2 ... 1990 (recent)

102.0 ... SIMSHADY

100.0 ... PEGG24, J10

 98.0 ... DAMI

 95.0 ... JEFF C

 92.0 ... DR(S)NO

 87.0 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER, SKY FULL (+2d)

 85.0 ... MAPANTZ. ALEXIS J9

 84.0 ... DIAGONAL RED LINE

 83.0 ... CASTELLANUS80

 82.0 ... STARGAZER

 81.5 ... CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWEATHERMAN

 80.0 ... REEF

 79.0 ... KIRKCALDY WEATHER, STEVE B, BLAST FROM THE PAST, BORN FROM THE VOID

 76.0 ... LETTERBOXER

 75.0 ... SYED2878

 73.2 ... 1988-2017 average

 73,0 ... STEWFOX

 72.0 ... FOZFOSTER, WEATHER26

 71.0 ... THUNDERSNOW DAYS

 69.0 ... DANIEL*

 68,0 ... SEASIDE 60

 67.0 ... ROSS90

 66.5 ... 1981-2010 average 

 66.3 ... DKEANE3

 66.0 ... GODBER 1

 65.0 ... JAMES M, WEATHER-HISTORY

 64.0 ... DOCTOR32, JONBOY, STATIONARY FRONT

 62.0 ... MULZY

 60.0 ... THE PIT, RELATIVISTIC. DON, GREAT PLUM  

 58.0 ... RADIATING DENDRITE

 55.0 ... POLAR GAEL , DAVID SNOW

 54,0 ,... NORRANCE (+1d)

 52.0 ... DAVEHSUG

 51.5 ... CHRIS R

 50.0 ... RAIN RAIN RAIN

 49.0 ... MIDLANDS ICE AGE, SINGULARITY

 48.0 ... NORTHWEST SNOW

 46.0 ... VIZZY2004

 45.5 ... LET IT SNOW!

 43,0 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, ROGER J SMITH

 40.0 ... TIMMYTOUR (+1d)

 37.0 ... BOBD29

 33.0 ... ED STONE

 13.8 ... 1993 (driest in recent years)

 03.6 ... 1891 (driest)

 59 entries, consensus (median value) is 67 mm.

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Scoring for January 2018 EWP Forecasts

 

The actual amount was 104.6 mm. The closest forecasts from Syed2878 and Born from the Void (105 mm) were within one rank and therefore score 10.0, except that BFTV had a late penalty of 0.2, so that Syed2878 has the high score for January. There were 50 forecasts, needing two intervals of 0.3, otherwise 0.2 separating each rank, and those larger intervals were placed after 17 and 34 positions.

 

10.0 ___ 105.0 __ SYED2878

 9.8 ___,105.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID (+1d) = 10.0 -0.2

 9.6 ___ 106.0 __ STARGAZER, STEWFOX

 9.0 ___ 102.0 __ POLAR GAEL (+1d) = 9.2 - 0.2

 8.8 ___ 108.0 __ MULZY

 8.6 ___ 101.0 __ VIZZY2004

 8.4 ___ 100.0 __ DR(S)NO

 8.2 ___ 110.0 __ STEVE B

 7.8 ___ 111.1 __ DKEANE3

 7.6 ___ 110.0 __ J10 (+3d) = 8.2 - 0.6

 7.6 ____ 98.0 __ SIMSHADY

 7.6 ____ 97.9 __ 1988-2017 average

 7.4 ____ 97.0 __ JONBOY

 7.2 ____ 96.0 __ GODBER.1

 7.0 ___ 114,0 __ SINGULARITY

 6.8 ___ 115.4 __ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

 6.6 ____ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average ... BOBD29

 6.3 ____ 92.4 __ MAPANTZ

 6.1 ___ 119,0  __ ALEXISJ9

 5.9 ____ 90.0 __ IAPENNELL

 5.9 ____ 90.0 __ Consensus

 5.7 ____ 90.0 __ DON (+1d) = 5.9-0.2

 5.5 ___ 120.0 __ FOZFOSTER, REEF

 5.1 ____ 89.0 __ PEGG24, DANIEL*

 4.9 ___ 123.0 __ JEFF C

 4.7 ____ 86.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT

 4.5 ____ 85.0 __ WEATHER 26, BOOFERKING

 4.3 ____ 85.0 __ SEASIDE 60 (+1d) = 4.5 - 0.2

 3.9 ____ 78.0 __ DAMI, DOCTOR32

 3.3 ____ 76.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE (+1d) = 3.5 - 0.2

 3.3 ____ 75.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY, DAVID SNOW

 2.8 ____ 74.0 __ CASTELLANUS80

 2.4 ____ 73.0 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN (+1d) = 2.6 - 0.2

 2.4 ____ 72.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 2.2 ____ 70.0 __ RELATIVISTIC, NORRANCE

 1.8 ____ 67.5 __ ROGER J SMITH

 1.6 ____ 66.0 __ ED STONE

 1.2 ____ 62.0 __ DAVEHSUG (+1d) = 1,4 - 0.2

 1.2 ___ 148.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE

 1.0 ____ 60.0 __ THE PIT

 0.8 ___ 153.0 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER

 0.6 ____ 48.2 __ CHRIS.R

 0.2 ____ 34.0 __ TIMMYTOUR

 0.0 ____ 35.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+2d) = 0.4 - 0.4

 0.0 ___ 200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Annual scoring updated (Dec - Jan)

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________________ Dec __ Jan ___ TOTAL

 

_01 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.6 __ 8.4 ____ 18.0

_02 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________8.6 __ 8.6 ____ 17.2

_03 ___ STEWFOX __________________7.0 __ 9.6 ____ 16.6

t04 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID _______6.4 __ 9.8 ____ 16.2

t04 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN _ 9.4 __ 6.8 ____ 16.2

t04 ___ JONBOY ____________________ 8.8 __ 7.4 ____ 16.2

_07 ___ MULZY _____________________ 7.0 __ 8.8 ____ 15.8

_08 ___ STEVE B ____________________7.4 __ 8.2 ____ 15.6

_09 ___ SIMSHADY __________________ 7.8 __ 7.6 ____ 15.4

(10)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16) __7.7 __ 7.6 ____ 15.3

_10 ___ DKEANE3 ___________________ 7.2 __ 7.8 ____ 15.0

_11 ___ SYED2878 ___________________4.8 __10.0____ 14.8

_12 ___ PEGG24 ____________________ 9.2 __ 5.1 ____ 14.3

(12)___  average 1981-2010 ___________ 7.6 __ 6.6 ____ 14.2

_13 ___ REEF _______________________8.6 __ 5.5 ____ 14.1

_14 ___ POLAR GAEL ________________ 4.6 __ 9.0 ____ 13.6

_15 ___ JEFF C ______________________7.6 __ 4.9 ____ 12.5

_16 ___ SINGULARITY ________________5.2 __ 7.0 ____ 12.2

_17 ___  J10 ________________________ 4.4 __ 7.6 ____ 12.0

_18 ___ MAPANTZ ___________________ 5.2 __ 6.3 ____ 11.5

(19) ___ consensus __________________ 5.2 __ 5.9 ____ 11.1

_19 ___ STARGAZER _________________1.4 __ 9.6 ____ 11.0

t20 ___ TIMMYTOUR ________________ 10.0 __ 0.2 ____ 10.2

t20 ___ RELATIVISTIC ________________ 8.0 __ 2.2 ____ 10.2

_22 ___ SEASIDE 60 _________________ 5.8 __ 4.3 ____ 10.1

t23 ___ BOBD29 _____________________ 3.2 __ 6.6 _____ 9.8

t23 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.8 __ ---- _____ 9.8

_25 ___ GODBER.1 __________________ 2.4 __ 7.2 _____ 9.6

_26 ___ DAMI _______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 _____ 9.3

_27 ___ NORRANCE __________________7.0 __ 2.2 _____ 9.2

_28 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________9.0 __ ---- _____ 9.0

t29 ___ DANIEL* _____________________ 3.8 __ 5.1 _____ 8.9

t29 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________ 2.8 __ 6.1 _____ 8.9

_31 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS_ 8.2 __ ---- _____ 8.2

t32 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __ 4.5 _____ 7.5

t32 ___ DON ________________________ 1.8 __ 5.7 _____ 7.5

_34___ THE_PIT _____________________6.0 __ 1.0 _____ 7.0

_35 ___ CHRIS. R ____________________ 6.2 __ 0.6 _____ 6.8

_36 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ___________ 3.4 __ 3.3 _____ 6.7

_37 ___ ED STONE ___________________4.4 __ 1.6 _____ 6.0

t38 ___ STATIONARY FRONT __________ 1.2 __ 4.7 _____ 5.9

t38 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __ 5.9 _____ 5.9

_40 ___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __ ---- _____ 5.8

_41 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE _____________ 4.4 __ 1.2 _____ 5.6

t42 ___ DAVID SNOW _________________2.2 __ 3.3 _____ 5.5

t42 ___ DOCTOR32 ___________________1.6 __ 3.9 _____ 5.5

t42 ___ FOZFOSTER __________________---- __ 5.5 _____ 5.5

_45 ___ WEATHER 26 _________________ ---- __ 4.5 _____ 4.5

t46 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER _____3.6 __ 0.8 _____ 4.4

t46 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _________ 2.0 __ 2.4 _____ 4.4

_48 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ___________0.6 __ 3.3 _____ 3.9

_49 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __ 2.8 _____ 2.8

_50 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __ ---- _____ 2.6

_51 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________ ---- __ 2.4 _____ 2.4

_52 ___ DAVEHSUG __________________ 1.0 __ 1.2 _____ 2.2

_53 ___ ROGER J SMITH ______________ 0.2 __ 1.8 _____ 2.0

_54 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______ 0.8 __ 0.0 _____ 0.8

_55 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __ ---- _____ 0.4

_56 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0

 (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

All of the above based on provisional January scoring as we await confirmation of 104.6 mm as the total. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Scoring for January 2018 EWP Forecasts -- slight revisions

Stargazer alerted me to the fact that there are two different sources of England and Wales precip, the one I was using being from the Hadley site, but an alternative source comes straight from the Met Office. The amounts they have are slightly different from Hadley which I presume is because of a different sample of the many stations that must be available to use for this. Another advantage is that the UK met office site updates faster, in fact, I would still be waiting for my original estimate from daily data to be confirmed as of today (12th Feb) so I have decided to revise the January scoring (very slight differences as the value now being used is 103.9 rather than 104.6 mm). Revisions to December will be slightly larger as the new amount is 108.8 mm instead of 113.0 mm. The December table published earlier will not be revised but the annual table attached to this summary will be revised so you can check that to see if your score changed very much. A final change I have decided to make is to drop the determination of high score from rankings, and go with an absolute top score of 10.0, it seems unlikely that we would ever find our top score more than 5 ranks away from the actual result, so this was probably never going to be in play (it has not been in play for the first two months). And the bottom score will now always be 0.0, the rest will depend on how many enter.

So, to restate the earlier summary, the actual amount was 103.9 mm. The closest forecasts from Syed2878 and Born from the Void (105 mm) therefore score 10.0, except that BFTV had a late penalty of 0.2, so that Syed2878 has the high score for January. There were 50 forecasts, needing two intervals of 0.3, otherwise 0.2 separating each rank, and those larger intervals were placed after 17 and 34 positions.

 

Score __ fcst ___ diff ___ Forecaster

10.0 ___ 105.0 _ +1.1 ___ SYED2878

 9.8 ___,105.0 _ +1.1 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID (+1d) = 10.0 -0.2

 9.4 ___ 102.0 _ --1.9 ___ POLAR GAEL (+1d) = 9.6 - 0.2

 9.4 ___ 106.0 _ +2.1 ___ STARGAZER, STEWFOX

 9.0 ___ 101.0 _ --2.9 ___ VIZZY2004

 8.8 ___ 100.0 _ --3.9 ___ DR(S)NO

 8.6 ___ 108.0 _ +4.1 ___ MULZY

 8.4 ____ 98.0 _ --5.9 ___ SIMSHADY

 8.3 ____ 97.9 _ --6.0 ___ 1988-2017 average

 8.2 ___ 110.0 _ +6.1 ___ STEVE B

 7.8 ____ 97.0 _ --6.9 ___ JONBOY

 7.6 ___ 110.0 _ +6.1 ___ J10 (+3d) = 8.2 - 0.6 

 7.6 ___ 111.1 _ +7.2 ___ DKEANE3

 7.4 ____ 96.0 _ --7.9 ___ GODBER.1

 7.2 ___ 114,0 _+10.1 ___ SINGULARITY

 7.0 ____ 93.0 _--10.9 ___ 1981-2010 average ... BOBD29

 6.8 ___ 115.4 _+11.5 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

 6.8 ____ 92.4 _--11.5 ___ MAPANTZ

 6.3 ____ 90.0 _--13.9 ___ IAPENNELL

 6.3 ____ 90.0 _--13.9 ___ Consensus

 6.1 ____ 90.0 _--13.9 ___ DON (+1d) = 6.3-0.2

 5.9 ____ 89.0 _--14.9 ___ PEGG24, DANIEL*

 5.5 ___ 119.0 _+15.1 ___ ALEXISJ9

 5.3 ___ 120.0 _+16.1 ___ FOZFOSTER, REEF

 4.9 ____ 86.0 _--17.9 ___ STATIONARY FRONT

 4.7 ____ 85.0 _--18.9 ___ WEATHER 26, BOOFERKING

 4.5 ____ 85.0 _--18.9 ___ SEASIDE 60 (+1d) = 4.7 - 0.2

 4.1 ___ 123.0 _+19.1 ___ JEFF C

 3.9 ____ 78.0 _--25.9 ___ DAMI, DOCTOR32

 3.3 ____ 76.0 _--27.9 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE (+1d) = 3.5 - 0.2

 3.3 ____ 75.0 _--28.9 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY, DAVID SNOW

 2.8 ____ 74.0 _--29.9 ___ CASTELLANUS80

 2.4 ____ 73.0 _--30.9 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN (+1d) = 2.6 - 0.2

 2.4 ____ 72.0 _--31.9 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE

 2.2 ____ 70.0 _--33.9 ___ RELATIVISTIC, NORRANCE

 1.8 ____ 67.5 _--36.4 ___ ROGER J SMITH

 1.6 ____ 66.0 _--37.9 ___ ED STONE

 1.2 ____ 62.0 _--41.9 ___ DAVEHSUG (+1d) = 1,4 - 0.2

 1.2 ____ 60.0 _--43.9 ___ THE PIT

 1.0 ___ 148.0 _+44.1 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE

 0.8 ___ 153.0 _+49.1 ___ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER

 0.6 ____ 48.2 _--55.7 ___ CHRIS.R

 0.2 ____ 34.0 _--69.9 ___ TIMMYTOUR

 0.0 ____ 35.0 _--68.9 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+2d) = 0.4 - 0.4

 0.0 ___ 200.0 _+96.1 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Annual scoring updated (Dec - Jan)

... this table includes revised scores from December and the above scores for January ...

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________________ Dec __ Jan ___ TOTAL

 

_01 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __ 8.8 ____ 18.6

_02 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __ 9.0 ____ 18.0

_03 ___ JONBOY ___________________ 9.2 __ 7.8 ____ 17.0

_04 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_10.0 __6.8 ____ 16.8

_05 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __ 8.4 ____ 16.6

_06 ___ STEWFOX __________________7.0 __ 9.4 ____ 16.4

_07 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 6.4 __ 9.8 ____ 16.2

(07)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16) __7.9 __ 8.3 ____16.2

t08 ___ MULZY ______________________7.0 __ 8.6 ____ 15.6

t08 ___ STEVE B ____________________ 7.4 __ 8.2 ____ 15.6

t10 ___ SYED2878 ___________________ 4.8 __10.0____ 14.8

t10 ___ DKEANE3 ____________________7.2 __ 7.6 ____ 14.8

(12)___  average 1981-2010 ___________ 7.8 __ 7.0 ____ 14.6

_12 ___ REEF _______________________9.0 __ 5.3 ____ 14.3

_13 ___ POLAR GAEL ________________ 4.6 __ 9.4 ____ 14.0

_14 ___ PEGG24 ____________________ 8.0 __ 5.9 ____ 13.9

_15 ___ SINGULARITY ________________5.2 __ 7.2 ____ 12.4

t16 ___  J10 _________________________4.4 __ 7.6 ____ 12.0

t16 ___ MAPANTZ ____________________5.2 __ 6.8 ____ 12.0

_18 ___ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __ 4.1 ____ 11.9

(19) ___ consensus __________________ 5.2 __ 6.3 ____ 11.5

_19 ___ STARGAZER _________________1.4 __ 9.4 ____ 10.8

_20 ___ SEASIDE 60 _________________ 5.8 __ 4.5 ____ 10.3

t21 ___ RELATIVISTIC ________________ 8.4 __ 2.2 ____ 10.6

t21 ___ BOBD29 _____________________ 3.2 __ 7.0 ____ 10.2

_23 ___ GODBER.1 ___________________2.4 __ 7.4 _____ 9.8

_24 ___ DANIEL* _____________________3.8 __ 5.9 _____ 9.7

t25 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __ ---- _____ 9.6

t25 ___ TIMMYTOUR _________________ 9.4 __ 0.2 _____ 9.6

_27 ___ DAMI _______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 _____ 9.3

_28 ___ NORRANCE __________________7.0 __ 2.2 _____ 9.2

_29 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS_ 8.6 __ ---- _____ 8.6

_30 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __ 5.5 _____ 8.3

_31 ___ DON ________________________ 1.8 __ 6.1 _____ 7.9

_32 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __ 4.7 _____ 7.7

_33 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________7.6 __ ---- _____ 7.6

_34___ THE_PIT _____________________6.0 __ 1.2 _____ 7.2

_35 ___ CHRIS. R ____________________ 6.2 __ 0.6 _____ 6.8

_36 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ___________ 3.4 __ 3.3 _____ 6.7

_37 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __ 6.3 _____ 6.3

_38 ___ STATIONARY FRONT __________ 1.2 __ 4.9 _____ 6.1

_39 ___ ED STONE ___________________4.4 __ 1.6 _____ 6.0

_40 ___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __ ---- _____ 5.8

t41 ___ DAVID SNOW _________________2.2 __ 3.3 _____ 5.5

t41 ___ DOCTOR32 ___________________1.6 __ 3.9 _____ 5.5

_43 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE _____________ 4.4 __ 1.0 _____ 5.4

_44 ___ FOZFOSTER __________________---- __ 5.3 _____ 5.3

_45 ___ WEATHER 26 _________________ ---- __ 4.7 _____ 4.7

t46 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER _____3.6 __ 0.8 _____ 4.4

t46 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _________ 2.0 __ 2.4 _____ 4.4

_48 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ___________0.6 __ 3.3 _____ 3.9

_49 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __ 2.8 _____ 2.8

_50 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __ ---- _____ 2.6

_51 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________ ---- __ 2.4 _____ 2.4

_52 ___ DAVEHSUG __________________ 1.0 __ 1.2 _____ 2.2

_53 ___ ROGER J SMITH ______________ 0.2 __ 1.8 _____ 2.0

_54 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______ 0.8 __ 0.0 _____ 0.8

_55 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __ ---- _____ 0.4

_56 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0

 (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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Posted (edited)

March 2018 Table of forecasts

(part 1, CET)

12.0 _ LETTUCING GUTTED (16)

 9.2 _____ warmest (1957)

 7.1 _ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (33)

 6.8 _ 1988-2017 ... ... TIMMYTOUR (21)

 6.7 _ MAPANTZ (L1 - 1) (72) 

 6.6 _ 1981-2010

 6.5 _

 6.4 _ FOZFOSTER (45)

 6.3 _ RELATIVISTIC (40)

 6.2 _ MARK NEAL (L1 - 2) (73)

 6.1 _ MARK BAYLEY (48), J10 (68)

 6.0 _

 5.9 _ WEATHER-HISTORY (42)

 5.8 _ STARGAZER (39), GAEL_FORCE (50)

 5.7 _ SUMMER SUN (51), DIAGONAL RED LINE (61)

 5.6 _ SUMMER BLIZZARD (34), REEF (57)

 5.5 _ VIZZY2004 (15), SYED2878 (35), LETTERBOXER (65)

 5.4 _ SNOWRAY (58)

 5.3 _ THE PIT (43), GREAT PLUM (70)

 5.2 _ SEASIDE 60 (46), MULZY (60), DAMIANSLAW (64)

 5.1 _ RADIATING DENDRITE (19), DAVID SNOW (69)

 5.0 _ MAN WITH BEARD (47), SUNDOG (67), DON (70)

 4.9 _ KENTISH MAN (49)

 4.8 _ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN (17), GODBER 1 (52), NORRANCE (63)

 4.7 _ ROGER J SMITH (29)

 4.6 _ VIRTUALSPHERE (26), CORAM (36), DKEANE3 (62)

-------------- ------------------- Consensus is 4.6 ----------------------------------- --------------

 4.5 _ DANCER WITH WINGS (7), RICEY076 (20), METALTRON (59)

 4.4 _ JEFF C (37), JONBOY (55)

 4.3 _ BORN FROM THE VOID (38), DOCTOR32 (L1-5) (76)

 4.2 _ MATT TARRANT (8), STEWFOX (41), DUNCAN McALISTER (54)

 4.1 _ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (4), BLAST FROM THE PAST (30)

 4.0 _ MIDLANDS ICE AGE (45)

 3.9 _ OPTIMUS PRIME (14), DAMI (22), STEVE B (32)

 3.8 _ STATIONARY FRONT (53), DAVEHSUG (L1-3) (74), DANIEL* (L1-4) (75)

 3.7 _  

 3.6 _ WEATHER26 (6)

 3.5 _ SINGULARITY (56)

 3.4 _

 3.3 _ ED STONE (5)

 3.2 _ BOBD29 (24)

 3.1 _ COLDEST WINTER (18)

 3.0 _ LET IT SNOW! (1) 

 2.9 _

 2.8 _ CYMRO (11), MOORLANDER (13), PEGG24 (23)

 2.7 _ DR(S)NO (28) 

 2.6 _

 2.5 _ SIMSHADY (2), HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM (27)

 2.4 _

 2.3 _ POLAR GAEL (10)

 2.2 _

 2.1 _ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE (9), 

 2.0 _

 1.9 _

 1.8 _ BACKTRACK (31), CHRIS.R (66)

 1.7 _  

 1.6 _ 

 1.5 _

 1.4 _

 1.3 _

 1.2 _

 1.1 _

 1.0 _ coldest March (1674)

 0.9 _

 0.6 _ ROBBIE GARRETT (12)

 0.0 _ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (25)

-12.4 _ DEEP SNOW PLEASE (3)

________________________________________

Notes: 71 on time entries and 5 shown as one day late. Consensus (median) is 4.6 C.

Marked rise in forecast values from first to second half.

=============================================================================

 

(part 2: EWP contest)

 

357.0 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE

200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

163.7 __ *** *** maximum (1910 to 2017) in 1947 (177.5 in Hadley data, max 1766-2017)

156.3 __ *** *** maximum since 1981 (was 1981) (160.4 in Hadley data, 2nd 1766-2017)

120.0 __ JONBOY

115.5 __ ROGER J SMITH

112,5 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 96.0 __ WEATHER26

 95.0 __ NORRANCE

 92.0 __ DKEANE3

 90.0 __ STEWFOX

 86.0 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER, STEVE B, SEASIDE 60

 85.0 __ J10, DON

 84.8 __ CHRIS.R

 84.0 __ CORAM, SINGULARITY

 83.0 __ GREAT PLUM

 82.0 __ SIMSHADY

 81.0 __ STARGAZER

 80.0 __ RICEY076, DIAGONAL RED LINE

 79.0 __ LET IT SNOW!

 77.9 __ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

 77.0 __ DR(S)NO, PEGG24

 76.0 __ BOBD29

 75.0 __ DAMI, BORN FROM THE VOID, DAVID SNOW

----------------- ----------------- Consensus 75.0 ----------------- -------------

 72.0 __ DOCTOR 32 (+1d)

 70.0 __ mean 1981-2010 ... ... BACKTRACK, SYED2878, DAVEHSUG (+1d)

 69.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE, DANIEL* (+1d) 

 66.0 __ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM, MAPANTZ

 65.0 __ FOZFOSTER, REEF

 63.0 __ GODBER 1

 62.5 __ mean 1988-2017

 61.0 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER, JEFF C

 59.0 __ MARK NEAL

 57.0 __ MATT TARRANT 

 55.0 __ POLAR GAEL, VIZZY2004, BLAST FROM THE PAST, WEATHER-HISTORY ...

__ __ __ __ STATIONARY FRONT

 53.0 __ TIMMYTOUR

 52.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE

 50.0 __ THE PIT

 49.0 __ ED STONE, RELATIVISTIC 

 48.0 __ MULZY

 35.0 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

 29.0 __ MOORLANDER

 27.0 __ COLDEST WINTER

 20.9 __ *** *** minimum since 1981 (was 2011) (22.3 mm in Hadley data, 20th lowest 1766-2017)

 10.7 __ *** *** minimum (1910 to 2017) in 1929 (8.0 mm in Hadley data, 2nd lowest 1766-2017)

 05.6 __ *** *** minimum (1766 to 2017) _ 1781 _ (1766 to 2017 from Hadley data) 

_________________________________________________________________________

Note: Consensus (median) value is 75.0 mm, from 59 entries. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Scoring for February EWP contest

Note: rank is for points, not forecast error (in cases with a late penalty)

With 59 forecasts, 58 intervals in scoring, groups of seven go down from 10.0 in sub-groups of

three by 0.2, next by 0.1, and three more by 0.2 ... next set start 0.1 down from there ...

ties occasionally stagger this arrangement slightly ... dropped points for late penalty are

calculated from this arrangement and counted as part of the scoring stagger as if unpenalized.

Consensus and two normals are given arbitrary scores based on differences from forecasters,

these scores do not affect the overall scoring system otherwise. 

 

Rank _Forecaster _______________ Fcst __ Error ____ Points

_01 __RAIN RAIN RAIN __________ 50.0 __ +0.4 ____10.0

_02t__MIDLANDS ICE AGE _______49.0 __--0.6 _____ 9.8

_02t__SINGULARITY ____________49.0 __--0.6 _____ 9.8

_04 __ NORTHWEST SNOW ______48.0 __--1.6 _____ 9.5

_05 __ CHRIS.R ________________ 51.5 __+1.9 _____ 9.3

_06 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 52.0 __ +2.4 _____ 9.1

_07 __ VIZZY2004 ______________ 46.0 __ --3.6 _____ 8.9

_08 __ LET IT SNOW! ___________ 45.5 __ --4.1 _____ 8.8

_09t__ POLAR GAEL ____________ 55.0 __ +5.4 _____ 8.6

_09t __DAVID SNOW ____________ 55.0 __ +5.4 _____ 8.6

_11 __ NORRANCE _____________ 54.0 __ +4.4 _____ 8.4 (8.6 - 0.2)

_12t__ VIRTUALSPHERE ________ 43.0 __ --6.6 _____ 8.1

_12t__ ROGER J SMITH _________ 43.0 __ --6.6 _____ 8.1

_14 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ____ 58.0 __ +8.4 _____ 7.7

_15t__ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 40.0 __ --8.6 _____ 7.4 (7.6 - 0.2)

_15t __ THE PIT ________________60.0 __+10.4 _____ 7.4

_15t __ RELATIVISTIC ___________60.0 __+10.4 _____ 7.4

_15t __ DON ___________________60.0 __+10.4 _____ 7.4

_15t __ GREAT PLUM ___________ 60.0 __+10.4 _____ 7.4

_20 __ MULZY _________________ 62.0 __+12.4 _____ 6.7 

_21 __ BOBD29 ________________ 37.0 __--12.6 _____ 6.5

_22t__ DOCTOR32 ______________64.0 __+14.4 _____ 6.4

_22t__ JONBOY ________________ 64.0 __+14.4 _____ 6.4

_22t__ STATIONARY FRONT ______64.0 __+14.4 _____ 6.4

_25t__ JAMES M ________________65.0 __+15.4 _____ 5.9

_25t__ WEATHER-HISTORY ______ 65.0 __+15.4 _____ 5.9

_27 __  GODBER 1 ______________66.0 __+16.4 _____ 5.5

_28 __ ED STONE ______________ 33.0 __--16.6 _____ 5.3

_29 __ DKEANE3 _______________ 66.3 __+16.7 _____ 5.2

(30) __1981-2010 average ________66.5 __ +16.9 _____ 5.1

 _30 __ ROSS90 ________________67.0 __ +17.4 _____ 5.0

(30t) __ Consensus ______________67.0 __ +17.4 _____ 5.0

_31 __ SEASIDE 60 _____________ 68.0 __ +18.4 _____ 4.8

_32 __ DANIEL* ________________ 69.0 __ +19.4 _____ 4.7

_33 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ____71.0 __ +21.4 _____ 4.5

_34t __FOZFOSTER _____________72.0 __ +22.4 _____ 4.3

_34t __WEATHER26 _____________72.0 __ +22.4 _____ 4.3

_36 __ STEWFOX _______________73.0 __ +23.4 _____ 4.0

(37) __ 1988-2017 average ________73.2 __ +23.6 _____ 3.9

_37 __ SYED2878 _______________75.0 __ +25.4 _____ 3.8

_38 __ LETTERBOXER __________ 76.0 __ +26.4 _____ 3.6

_39t__ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ____ 79.0 __ +29.4 _____ 3.5

_39t __STEVE B ________________ 79.0 __ +29.4 _____ 3.5

_39t __BLAST FROM THE PAST ___ 79.0 __ +29.4 _____ 3.5

_39t __BORN FROM THE VOID ____ 79.0 __ +29.4 _____ 3.5

_43 __ REEF ___________________ 80.0 __ +30.4 _____ 2.8

_44 __CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN_81.5 __+31,9 _____ 2.6

_45 __ STARGAZER _____________ 82.0 __ +32.4 _____ 2.4

_46 __ CASTELLANUS80 _________ 83.0 __ +33.4 _____ 2.3

_47 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ______ 84.0 __ +34.4 _____ 2.1

_48t__ MAPANTZ ________________83.0 __ +33.4 _____ 1.9

_48t__ ALEXIS J9 ________________83.0 __ +33.4 _____ 1.9

_50 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER_87.0 __ +37.4 _____ 1.6

_51t __SKY FULL ________________87.0 __ +37.4 _____ 1.2 (1.6 - 0.4)

_51t __ DR(S)NO ________________ 92.0 __ +42.4 _____ 1.2

_53 __ JEFF C __________________ 95.0 __ +45.4 _____ 1.1

_54 __ DAMI ____________________98.0 __ +48.4 _____ 0.9

_55t __PEGG24 ________________ 100.0 __ +50.4 _____ 0.7

_55t __ J10 ____________________ 100.0 __ +50.4 _____ 0.7

_57 __ SIMSHADY _______________102.0 __ +52.4 _____ 0.4

_58 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC252 _252.0__+202.4 _____ 0.2

_59 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ______ 500.0__+450.4 _____ 0.0

 

Annual update follows below partition ...

==============================================================================================

==============================================================================================

 

ANNUAL SCORING UPDATE __ EWP contest

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________________ Dec __Jan __Feb __TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __ 9.0 __ 8.9 ___ 26.9 ____ _ 02 

_02 ___ JONBOY ___________________ 9.2 __ 7.8 __ 6.4 ___ 23.4 ____ _ 03

_03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________ 4.6 __ 9.4 __ 8.6 ___ 22.6 ____ _ 13

_04 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __ 8.6 __ 6.7 ___ 22.3 ____ _T-8

_05 ___ SINGULARITY _______________5.2 __ 7.2 __ 9.8 ___ 22.2 ____ _ 15

_06 ___ STEWFOX __________________7.0 __ 9.4 __ 4.0 ___ 20.4 ____ _ 06

(07)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16) __7.9 __ 8.3 __3.9 ___20.1 ____ _(07)

_07 ___ DKEANE3 ___________________7.2 __ 7.6 __ 5.2 ___ 20.0 ____ _T-10

_08 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 6.4 __ 9.8 __ 3.5 ___ 19.7 ____ _ 07

t(08) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __ 7.0 __ 5.1 ___ 19.7 ____ _(12)

_09 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_10.0 __6.8 __ 2.6 ___ 19.4 ____ _ 04

_10 ___ STEVE B ___________________ 7.4 __ 8.2 __ 3.5 ___ 19.1 ____ _T-8

T11 ___ DR (S) NO ___________________9.8 __ 8.8 __ 1.2 ___ 18.6 ____ _ 01 

T11 ___ SYED2878 ___________________4.8 __10.0__ 3.8 ___ 18.6 ____ _ T-10

_13 ___ RELATIVISTIC ________________8.4 __ 2.2 __ 7.4 ___ 18.0 ____ _T21

_14 ___ NORRANCE __________________7.0 __ 2.2 __ 8.4 ___ 17.6 ____ _28

_15 ___ REEF _______________________9.0 __ 5.3 __ 2.8 ___ 17.1 ____ _12

T16 ___ SIMSHADY __________________ 8.2 __ 8.4 __ 0.4 ___ 17.0 ____ _05

T16 ___ TIMMYTOUR _________________9.4 __ 0.2 __ 7.4 ___ 17.0 ____ _T25

_18 ___ BOBD29 ____________________ 3.2 __ 7.0 __ 6.5 ___ 16.7 ____ _T21

_19 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________ 3.4 __ 3.3 __ 9.8 ___ 16.5 ____ _36

T(19) __ consensus __________________ 5.2 __ 6.3 __ 5.0 ___ 16.5 ____ _(19)

_20 ___ CHRIS. R ____________________ 6.2 __ 0.6 __ 9.3 ___ 16.1 ____ _ 35

T21 ___ GODBER.1 __________________ 2.4 __ 7.4 __ 5.5 ___ 15.3 ____ _ 23

T21 ___ DON ________________________1.8 __ 6.1 __ 7.4 ___ 15.3 ____ _ 31

_23 ___ SEASIDE 60 _________________ 5.8 __ 4.5 __ 4.8 ___ 15.1 ____ _ 20

T24 ___ PEGG24 ____________________ 8.0 __ 5.9 __ 0.7 ___ 14.6 ____ _ 14

T24 ___ THE_PIT ____________________ 6.0 __ 1.2 __ 7.4 ___ 14.6 ____ _ 34

_26 ___ DANIEL* _____________________3.8 __ 5.9 __ 4.7 ___ 14.4 ____ _ 24

_27 ___ DAVID SNOW_________________2.2 __ 3.3 __ 8.6 ___ 14.1 ____ _T41

_28 ___ MAPANTZ ___________________ 5.2 __ 6.8 __ 1.9 ___ 13.9 ____ _T-16

_29 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE _____________ 4.4 __ 1.0 __ 8.1 ___ 13.5 ____ _ 43

_30 ___ STARGAZER _________________1.4 __ 9.4 __ 2.4 ___ 13.2 ____ _ 19

_31 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________ 2.0 __ 2.4 __ 8.7 ___ 13.1 ____ _T46

_32 ___ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __ 4.1 __ 1.1 ___ 13.0 ____ _ 18

_33 ___  J10 _________________________4.4 __ 7.6 __ 0.7 ___ 12.7 ____ _T-16

_34 ___ STATIONARY FRONT __________ 1.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.4 ___ 12.5 ____ _ 38

_35 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________ ---- __ 2.4 __10.0___ 12.4 ____ _ 51

_36 ___ DOCTOR32 __________________ 1.6 __ 3.9 __ 6.4 ___ 11.9 ____ _T41

T37 ___ ED STONE ___________________4.4 __ 1.6 __ 5.3 ___ 11.3 ____ _ 39

T37 ___ DAVEHSUG __________________1.0 __ 1.2 __ 9.1 ___ 11.3 ____ _ 52

T39 ___ DAMI _______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 __ 0.9 ___ 10.2 ____ _ 27

T39 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __ 5.5 __ 1.9 ___ 10.2 ____ _ 30

_41 ___ ROGER J SMITH ______________ 0.2 __ 1.8 __ 8.1 ___ 10.1 ____ _ 53

_42 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ___________0.6 __ 3.3 __ 5.9 ____ 9.8 ____ _ 48

T43 ___ FOZFOSTER __________________---- __ 5.3 __ 4.3 ____ 9.6 ____ _ 44

T43 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 9.6 ____ _ T25

_45 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________ ---- __ ---- __ 9.5 ____ 9.5 ____ _ ---

_46 ___ WEATHER 26 _________________ ---- __ 4.7 __ 4.3 ____ 9.0 ____ _ 45

_47 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ________________---- __ ---- __ 8.8 ____ 8.8 ____ _ ---

_48 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 8.6 ____ _ 29

_49 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __ 4.7 __ ---- ____ 7.7 ____ _ 32

_50 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________7.6 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 7.6 ____ _ 33

_51 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________ ---- __ ---- __ 7.4 ____ 7.4 ____ _ ---

_52 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __ 6.3 __ ---- ____ 6.3 ____ _ 37

_53 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER _____3.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.6 ____ 6.0 ____ _T46

_54 ___ JAMES M ____________________ ---- __ ---- __ 5.9 ____ 5.9 ____ _ ---

_55___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.8 ____ _ 40

_56 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __ 2.8 __ 2.3 ____ 5.1 ____ _ 49

_57 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 ____ 5.0 ____ _ ---

_58 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________ ---- __ ---- __ 4.5 ____ 4.5 ____ _ ---

_59 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______ 0.8 __ 0.0 __ 3.5 ____ 4.3 ____ _ 54

_60 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __ ---- __ 3.6 ____ 3.6 ____ _ ---

_61 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ________ ---- __ ---- __ 3.5 ____ 3.5 ____ _ ---

_62 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 ____ _ 50

_63 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE __________ ---- __ ---- __ 2.1 ____ 2.1 ____ _ ---

_64 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __ ---- __ 1.2 ____ 1.2 ____ _ ---

_65 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __ ---- __ ----- ____ 0.4 ____ _ 55

_66 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __ ---- __ 0.2 ____ 0.2 ____ _ ---

_67 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ____ _ 56

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

 

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Tables of entries for April, 2018

(a) Temperatures

14.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (6)

11.8 __ ___ ___ ___ ___ warmest (2011)

10.9 __

10.8 __

10.7 __

10.6 __

10.5 __

10.4 __

10.3 __

10.2 __ DIAGONALREDLINE (30)

10.1 __ WEATHER26 (7)

10.0 __

 9.9 __

 9.8 __ DOCTOR32 (51)

 9.7 __

 9.6 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (15)

 9.5 __ MAN WITH BEARD (28)

 9.4 __ SINGULARITY (55)

 9.3 __ MAPANTZ (43)

 9.2 __ CHRISBELL-notTHEWEATHERMAN (17)

 9.1 __ PEGG24 (16), LETTERBOXER (41)

 9.0 __ ED STONE (4), DAVEHSUG (31), THE PIT (36), GAEL_FORCE (42)

 8.9 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1)

 8.8 __ SIMSHADY (35), @ ^ @ GODBER 1 (+1d) (L1-1) @ ^ @

 8.7 __ MULZY (40) ... ... ... average 1988-2017

 8.6 __ STEWFOX (24), BOBD29 (37), REEF (58)

 8.5 __ DR(S)NO (19), DUNCAN McALISTER (38), DAVID SNOW (44), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (56), DON (59)

... ... ... ... ... @ ^ @ METALTRON (+1d) (L1-2) @ ^ @ ... ... ... ... .... average 1981-2010

 8.4 __ VIZZY2004 (13), WEATHER-HISTORY (32), SEASIDE 60 (53), J10 (57) .... .... consensus 

= = = = = = = = =

 8.3 __ SUMMER SUN (3), DANCERWITHWINGS (20), @ ^ @ DKEANE3 (+3d) (L3-1) @ ^ @

 8.2 __ POLAR GAEL (8), MARK BAYLEY (29)

 8.1 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (2), SNOWRAY (45)

 8.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID (27), RELATIVISTIC (34), SUNDOG (46)

 7.9 __ STARGAZER (14), DAMIANSLAW (47),

 7.8 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (25)

 7.7 __ STEVEB (9), ALEXISJ9 (21)

 7.6 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (33)

 7.5 __ NORRANCE (39), SUMMER BLIZZARD (50)

 7.4 __ DANIEL* (18)

 7.3 __ JONBOY (26)

 7.2 __ ROGER J SMITH (52)

 7.1 __ KENTISH MAN (48)

 7.0 __

 6.9 __ JEFF C (12)

 6.8 __ STATIONARY FRONT (5)

 6.7 __ LET IT SNOW! (11), QUICKSILVER1989 (49)

 6.6 __

 6.5 __ SYED2878 (22)

 6.4 __ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER (10), CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE (54)

 6.3 __

 6.2 __

 6.1 __

 6.0 __

 5.9 __ DAMI (23)

 4.7 __ coldest (1701, 1837)

59 on time entries and three late (two +1d, and one +3d) consensus is median 8.4 C

===========================================================================

(b) April 2018 EWP contest (precip, mm)

200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

189.0 __ ALEXISJ9

141.0 __ ___ ___ ___ wettest (2012)

125.0 __ ED STONE

115.0 __ SYED2878

112.0 __ ROGER J SMITH

105.0 __ DANIEL*

100.0 __ LET IT SNOW! _ RELATIVISTIC

 97.0 __ BOBD29

 95.0 __ STEVEB, JONBOY, DAVEHSUG

 92.0 __ SEASIDE 60

 90.0 __ DON

 89.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY

 88.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE, SIMSHADY

 86.0 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

 85.0 __ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER

 84.0 __ J10

 82.0 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

 80.0 __ POLAR GAEL, STEWFOX

 79.0 __ GODBER 1 (+1d) ... consensus

 78.0 __ PEGG24, BORN FROM THE VOID

 77.0 __ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY

 75.0 __ NORRANCE, DAVID SNOW

 74.0 __ LETTERBOXER

 72.6 __ DKEANE3 (+3d)

 70.5 __CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWEATHERMAN

 70.0 __ THE PIT

 68.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 62.0 __ JEFF C, DOCTOR32

 61.6 __ average 1981-2010

 61.0 __ STARGAZER 

 60.0 __ average 1988-2017

 56.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 55.0 __ DAMI, MULZY, REEF

 48.0 __ WEATHER26

 44.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT

 28.0 __ VIZZY2004

 07.0 __ ___ ___ ___ driest (1938)

47 entries, consensus is 79.0 mm.

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Scoring for March 2018 EWP forecasts

 

Note: rank is for points, not forecast error (in cases with a late penalty)

With 59 forecasts, 58 intervals in scoring, groups of seven go down from 10.0 in sub-groups of

three by 0.2, next by 0.1, and three more by 0.2 ... next set start 0.1 down from there ...

ties occasionally stagger this arrangement slightly ... dropped points for late penalty are

calculated from this arrangement and counted as part of the scoring stagger as if unpenalized.

Consensus and two normals are given arbitrary scores based on differences from forecasters,

their ranks and scores do not affect the overall scoring system otherwise. 

 

Rank _ FORECASTER _______ fcst __ error ____ points

_ 1 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ___ 112.5 ____ +3.5 ___10.0

_ 2 __ ROGER J SMITH ______ 115.5 ____ +6.5 ___ 9.8

_ 3 __ JONBOY _____________ 120.0 ___ +11.0 ___ 9.6

_ 4 __ WEATHER26 ___________96.0 ___ --13.0 ___ 9.5

_ 5 __ NORRANCE ___________ 95.0 ___ --14.0 ___ 9.3

_ 6 __ DKEANE3 _____________ 92.0 ___ --17.0 ___ 9.1

_ 7 __ STEWFOX _____________90.0 ___ --19.0 ___ 8.9

T 8 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER __ 86.0 ___ --23.0 ___ 8.8

T 8 __ STEVE B ______________ 86.0 ___ --23.0 ___ 8.8

T 8 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________86.0 ___ --23.0 ___ 8.8

T11 __ J10 ___________________85.0 ___ --24.0 ___ 8.3

T11 __ DON __________________85.0 ___ --24.0 ___ 8.3

_13 __ CHRIS.R ______________ 84.8 ___ --24.2 ___ 7.9

T14 __ CORAM _______________84.0 ___ --25.0 ___ 7.7

T14 __ SINGULARITY __________84.0 ___ --25.0 ___ 7.7

_16 __ GREAT PLUM __________83.0 ___ --26.0 ___ 7.4

_17 __ SIMSHADY ____________ 82.0 ___ --27.0 ___ 7.2

_18 __ STARGAZER ___________81.0 ___ --28.0 ___ 7.1

T19 __ RICEY076 _____________ 80.0 ___ --29.0 ___ 6.9

T19 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ____80.0 ___ --29.0 ___ 6.9

_21 __  LET IT SNOW! _________ 79.0 ___ --30.0 ___ 6.5

_22 __ CHRISBELLNOTTHEWxMAN__77.9 ___ --31.1 ___ 6.4

T23 __ DR(S)NO ______________ 77.0 ___ --32.0 ___ 6.2

T23 __ PEGG24 _______________77.0 ___ --32.0 ___ 6.2

_25 __ BOBD29 _______________ 76.0 ___ --33.0 ___ 5.9

T26 __ DAMI __________________75.0 ___ --34.0 ___ 5.7

T26 __ BORN FROM THE VOID __ 75.0 ___ --34.0 ___ 5.7

T26 __ DAVID SNOW___________ 75.0 ___ --34.0 ___ 5.7

T26 __ consensus _____________ 75.0 ___ --34.0 ___ 5.7

T29 __ DOCTOR 32_____________ 72.0 ___ --37.0 ___ 5.0 (5.2-0.2)

T29 __ BACKTRACK ____________ 70.0 ___ --39.0 ___ 5.0

T29 __ SYED2878 ______________ 70.0 ___ --39.0 ___ 5.0

T29 __ mean 1981-2010 _________ 70.0 ___ --39.0 ___ 5.0

_32 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 70.0 ___ --39.0 ___ 4.8 (5.0-0.2)

_33 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ____ 69.0 ___ --40.0 ___ 4.5

T34 __ DANIEL* ________________ 69.0 ___ --40.0 ___ 4.3 (4.5-0.2) 

T34 __ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __66.0 ___ --43.0 ___ 4.3

T34 __ MAPANTZ _______________66.0 ___ --43.0 ___ 4.3

T37 __ FOZFOSTER ____________ 65.0 ___ --44.0 ___ 3.8

T37 __ REEF __________________ 65.0 ___ --44.0 ___ 3.8

_39 __GODBER 1 ______________ 63.0 ___ --46.0 ___ 3.5

_40 __ mean 1988-2017 _________ 62.5 ___ --46.5 ___ 3.4

T40 __PROLONGED SNOW LOVER 61.0 ___ --48.0 ___ 3.3

T40 __ JEFF C _________________ 61.0 ___ --48.0 ___ 3.3

_42 __ MARK NEAL _____________ 59.0 ___ --50.0 ___ 2.9

_43 __ MATT TARRANT___________57.0 ___ --52.0 ___ 2.8

T44 __ POLAR GAEL ____________ 55.0 ___ --54.0 ___ 2.6

T44 __ VIZZY2004 _______________55.0 ___ --54.0 ___ 2.6

T44 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST ____55.0 ___ --54.0 ___ 2.6

T44 __ WEATHER-HISTORY _______55.0 ___ --54.0 ___ 2.6

T44 __ STATIONARY FRONT ______ 55.0 ___ --54.0 ___ 2.6

_49 __ TIMMYTOUR ______________53.0 ___ --56.0 ___ 1.7

_50 __ VIRTUALSPHERE __________52.0 ___ --52.0 ___ 1.6

_51 __ THE PIT __________________50.0 ___ --59.0 ___ 1.4

T52 __ ED STONE ________________49.0 ___ --60.0 ___ 1.2

T52 __ RELATIVISTIC _____________49.0 ___ --60.0 ___ 1.2

_54 __ MULZY ___________________48.0 ___ --61.0 ___ 0.9

_55 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE______35.0 ___ --74.0 ___ 0.7

_56 __ MOORLANDER ____________29.0 ___ --80.0 ___ 0.5

_57 __ COLDEST WINTER _________27.0 ___ --82.0 ___ 0.4

_58 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ______200.0 ___ +91.0 ___ 0.2

_59 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _____ 357.0 ___+248.0___ 0.0

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Mar 2018)

Rank __ Forecaster _________________ Dec __Jan __Feb __Mar ___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ JONBOY ___________________ 9.2 __ 7.8 __ 6.4 __ 9.6 ____ 33.0 ____ _ 02

_02 ___ SINGULARITY _______________5.2 __ 7.2 __ 9.8 __ 7.7 ____ 29.9 ____ _ 05

_03 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __ 9.0 __ 8.9 __ 2.6 ____ 29.5 ____ _ 01 

_04 ___ STEWFOX __________________7.0 __ 9.4 __ 4.0 __ 8.9 ____ 29.3 ____ _ 06

_05 ___ DKEANE3 ___________________7.2 __ 7.6 __ 5.2 __ 9.1 ____ 29.1 ____ _ 07

_06 ___ STEVE B ___________________ 7.4 __ 8.2 __ 3.5 __ 8.8 ____ 27.9 ____ _ 11

_07 ___ NORRANCE _________________7.0 __ 2.2 __ 8.4 __ 9.3 ____ 26.9 ____ _ 14

_08 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________ 3.4 __ 3.3 __ 9.8 __10.0 ___ 26.5 ____ _ 19

_09 ___ DR (S) NO __________________ 9.8 __ 8.8 __ 1.2 __ 6.2 ____ 26.0 ____ _ 08 

_10 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_10.0 __6.8 __ 2.6 __ 6.4 ____ 25.8 ____ _ 10

_11 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 6.4 __ 9.8 __ 3.5 __ 5.7 ____ 25.4 ____ _ 09

_12 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________ 4.6 __ 9.4 __ 8.6 __ 2.6 ____ 25.2 ____ _ 03

(13) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __ 7.0 __ 5.1 __ 5.0 ____ 24.7 ____ _ (08)

_13 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __ 8.4 __ 0.4 __ 7.2 ____ 24.2 ____ _T-16

_14 ___ CHRIS. R ___________________6.2 __ 0.6 __ 9.3 __ 7.9 ____ 24.0 ____ _ 20

_15 ___ SEASIDE 60 _________________5.8 __ 4.5 __ 4.8 __ 8.8 ____ 23.9 ____ _ 23

T16 ___ DON _______________________ 1.8 __ 6.1 __ 7.4 __ 8.3 ____ 23.6 ____ _T-21

T16 ___ SYED2878 __________________ 4.8 __10.0__ 3.8 __ 5.0 ____ 23.6 ____ _ 12

(18)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __ 8.3 __3.9 __ 3.4 ____ 23.5 ____ _ (07)

_18 ___ MULZY _____________________ 7.0 __ 8.6 __ 6.7__ 0.9 ____ 23.2 ____ _ 04

_19 ___ BOBD29 ____________________ 3.2 __ 7.0 __ 6.5 __ 5.9 ____ 22.6 ____ _ 18

(20) ___ consensus __________________5.2 __ 6.3 __ 5.0 __ 5.7____ 22.2 ____ _ (19)

_20 ___  J10 ________________________4.4 __ 7.6 __ 0.7 __ 8.3 ____ 21.0 ____ _ 33

_21 ___ REEF _______________________9.0 __ 5.3 __ 2.8 __ 3.8 ____ 20.9 ____ _ 15

_22 ___ PEGG24 ____________________ 8.0 __ 5.9 __ 0.7 __ 6.2 ____ 20.8 ____ _T-24

_23 ___ STARGAZER _________________1.4 __ 9.4 __ 2.4 __ 7.1 ____ 20.3 ____ _ 30

_24 ___ ROGER J SMITH ______________0.2 __ 1.8 __ 8.1 __ 9.8 ____ 19.9 ____ _ 41

_25 ___ DAVID SNOW_________________2.2 __ 3.3 __ 8.6 __ 5.7 ____ 19.8 ____ _ 27

_26 ___ RELATIVISTIC ________________8.4 __ 2.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.2 ____ 19.2 ____ _ 13

_27 ___ GODBER.1 __________________ 2.4 __ 7.4 __ 5.5 __ 3.5 ____ 18.8 ____ _T-21

T28 ___ TIMMYTOUR _________________9.4 __ 0.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.7 ____ 18.7 ____ _T-16

T28 ___ DANIEL* _____________________3.8 __ 5.9 __ 4.7 __ 4.3 ____ 18.7 ____ _ 26

_30 ___ WEATHER 26 _________________---- __ 4.7 __ 4.3 __ 9.5 ____ 18.5 ____ _ 46

_31 ___ MAPANTZ ___________________ 5.2 __ 6.8 __ 1.9 __ 4.3 ____ 18.2 ____ _ 28

_32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________ 2.0 __ 2.4 __ 8.7 __ 4.5 ____ 17.6 ____ _ 31

_33 ___ DOCTOR32 __________________ 1.6 __ 3.9 __ 6.4 __ 5.0 ____ 16.9 ____ _ 36

_34 ___ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __ 4.1 __ 1.1 __ 3.3 ____ 16.3 ____ _ 32

_35 ___ DAVEHSUG __________________1.0 __ 1.2 __ 9.1 __ 4.8 ____ 16.1 ____ _T-37

_36 ___ THE_PIT ____________________ 6.0 __ 1.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.4 ____ 16.0 ____ _T-24

_37 ___ DAMI _______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 __ 0.9 __ 5.7 ____ 15.9 ____ _T-39

_38 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ________________ ---- __ ---- __ 8.8 __ 6.5 ____ 15.3 ____ _ 47

T39 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE _____________4.4 __ 1.0 __ 8.1 __ 1.6 ____ 15.1 ____ _ 29

 

T39 ___ STATIONARY FRONT __________ 1.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.4 __ 2.6 ____ 15.1 ____ _ 34

_41 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________ ---- __ ---- __ 7.4 __ 7.4 ____ 14.8 ____ _ 51

_42 ___ FOZFOSTER _________________ ---- __ 5.3 __ 4.3 __ 3.8 ____ 13.4 ____ _T-43

_43 ___ ED STONE ___________________4.4 __ 1.6 __ 5.3 __ 1.2 ____ 12.5 ____ _T-37

T44 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ___________0.6 __ 3.3 __ 5.9 __ 2.6 ____ 12.4 ____ _ 42

T44 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________ ---- __ 2.4 __10.0__ ---- ____ 12.4 ____ _ 35

_46 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER _________---- __ ---- __ 3.5 __ 8.8 ____ 12.3 ____ _ 61

_47 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __ 5.5 __ 1.9 __ ---- ____ 10.2 ____ _T-39

_48 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _____ 9.6 ____ _ T-43

_49 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________ ---- __ ---- __ 9.5 __ ---- _____ 9.5 ____ _ 45

_50 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER _____3.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.6 __ 3.3 _____ 9.3 ____ _ 53

_51 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE __________ ---- __ ---- __ 2.1 __ 6.9 _____ 9.0 ____ _ 63

_52 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _____ 8.6 ____ _ 48

T53 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __ 4.7 __ ---- __ ---- _____ 7.7 ____ _ 49

T53 ___ CORAM ______________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 7.7 _____ 7.7 ____ _ ---

_55 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________ 7.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _____ 7.6 ____ _ 50

T56 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ________0.8 __ 0.0 __ 3.5 __ 2.6 _____ 6.9 ____ _ 59

T56 ___ RICEY076 ____________________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 6.9 _____ 6.9 ____ _ ---

T58___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.5 _____ 6.3 ____ _ 55

T58 ___ IAPENNELL ___________________---- __ 6.3 __ ---- __ ---- _____ 6.3 ____ _ 52

_60 ___ JAMES M _____________________---- __ ---- __ 5.9 __ ---- _____ 5.9 ____ _ 54

_61 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __ 2.8 __ 2.3 __ ---- _____ 5.1 ____ _ 56

T62 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 __ ---- _____ 5.0 ____ _ 57

T62 ___ BACKTRACK__________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 _____ 0.0 ____ _ ---

_64 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________ ---- __ ---- __ 4.5 __ ---- _____ 4.5 ____ _ 58

_65 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM ___---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 4.3 _____ 4.3 ____ _ ---

_65 ___ LETTERBOXER _______________---- __ ---- __ 3.6 __ ---- _____ 3.6 ____ _ 60

_66 ___ MARK NEAL __________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.9 _____ 2.9 ____ _ ---

_67 ___ MATT TARRANT _______________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.8 _____ 2.8 ____ _ ---

_67 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _____ 2.6 ____ _ 62

_68 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __ ---- __ 1.2 __ ----_____ 1.2 ____ _ 64

_69 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.7 _____ 0.7 ____ _ ---

T70 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __ ---- __ ----- __ ----_____ 0.4 ____ _ 65

T70 ___ COLDEST WINTER ____________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.4 _____ 0.4 ____ _ ---

T72 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 _____---- __ ---- __ 0.2 __ ----_____ 0.2 ____ _ 66

T72 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.2 _____ 0.2 ____ _ 67

_74 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 ____ _ ---

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

note: DR(S)NO ranking in previous annual table has been adjusted to 8th from T-11th (Feb score not added in), previous 8th to 10th drop to 9th to 11th as shown for previous ranking corrected in this table. Previous other T-11 is now shown as 12th in previous ranking. 

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