CET Competition - the scores ongoing

[J10]

18 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

It wont let me open spreadsheet saying its a cooperate edition. ??

Works fine this end. What version of Excel do you have,

[feb1991blizzard]

So despite the fact that i didn't start entering the PPN contest until October, not a bad outcome to haul myself up to 53 / 96.

[Roger J Smith]

On 06/12/2018 at 01:59, seaside 60 said:

Morning for a question.

Would it possible to do a joint list for the last year comp.

ie temp and rainfall (places) added together to produce an overall winner for both.

I will produce said list.

Your later post said that you were having trouble opening the CET spreadsheet, I am able to open it so if you haven't resolved that, you'll see from my list the full set of standings for the year. 

Any combined results will have to work around the fact that about one quarter of the regular CET forecasters do not enter the EWP contests. 

[seaside 60]

21 hours ago, J10 said:

Works fine this end. What version of Excel do you have,

Its also happened to some excel docs on my computer., it wont open says I  have not activated office which is bull.

I have the std office pack but something may be corrupting them.

Will have to have a word with my computer guy.

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

I will produce said list.

Your later post said that you were having trouble opening the CET spreadsheet, I am able to open it so if you haven't resolved that, you'll see from my list the full set of standings for the year. 

Any combined results will have to work around the fact that about one quarter of the regular CET forecasters do not enter the EWP contests. 

It was meant for the people that do both, like to see who is the overall super star.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

19 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

It was meant for the people that do both, like to see who is the overall super star.

 

Don perhaps?

[Roger J Smith]

Combined CET and EWP rankings

_ not all CET forecasters enter the EWP contests. This list will compare only those who entered at least ten CET contests to make the primary rankings, and in some cases those forecasters entered fewer than ten EWP contests. The EWP rank is from the NCIC version table, not the later appearing Hadley version (these ranks are similar though). Numbers in brackets denote how many contests were entered. If there are two numbers, the second one lower, this refers to CET and EWP contests entered. One number means the same for both contests.

_ The table proceeds in order of average rank in the two contests. At the bottom of the table, you will find the ranks of all non-EWP entrants missing from the table.

_ The area between the table and that list has a few entrants who entered only a small number of EWP contests -- as well as a few who were fairly frequent entrants in both, unranked in the main CET table so I got them a ranking based on total points scored vs the main list. Some of these are higher ranks than the lower third of regular CET entrants but I did not adjust any of those down. For example, AlexisJ9 who entered nine CET contests had more points than the two tied 21st for CET in the table (so her rank enters as 21 also). Vizzy2004 reached 20th highest total score from eight entries and Gael_Force (no EWP so not shown in table) was equivalent to 31st from six. .

_ Not shown in table, our consensus values scored around 9th in CET and 3rd in EWP.-- about third place in the table. Normals closer to about 10th-12th.

 

rank _ FORECASTER ________ CET Rank ______ EWP Rank ______ Average of two ranks

 

01 _ Don (12) _________________ 2 ______________ 3 _________________2.5

02 _ Singularity (12) ____________ 8 ______________ 1 _________________4.5

03 _ Norrance (12) _____________ 3 ______________ 9 _________________6.0

04 _ Mulzy (12) ________________ 6 _____________ 11 _________________8.5

05 _ Reef (12) ________________ 10 ______________8 _________________9.0

06 _ DAVID SNOW (12) _________ 7 ______________12 ________________ 9.5

07 _ DR(S)NO (12) ____________ 16 ______________4 ________________10.0

08 _ Radiating Dendrite (12) _____ 13 _____________10 ________________11.5

09 _ Midlands Ice Age (12) ______18 ______________ 6 ________________12.0

T10_Godber.1 (12) ____________ 11 _____________ 16 ________________13.5

T10_BornFromTheVoid (12) _____ 12 _____________ 15 ________________13.5

12 _ The Pit (12) _______________ 5 _____________T26 _______________ 15.5

13 _ seaside60 (12) ____________T21_____________ 13 _______________ 17.0

14 _ Polar Gael (12) ____________30 ______________ 5 _______________ 17.5

T15_dKeane3 (10) _____________20 _____________ 20 ________________20.0

T15 _J10 (11^, 12) _____________38 ______________ 2 ________________20.0

17 _ Stargazer (11) ____________ 22 ______________ 22 _______________ 22.0

18 _ Steve B (12) ______________17 ____________ T28 ________________22.5

T19_stewfox (10, 9) ____________15 _____________ 33 ________________24.0

T19_pegg24 (11) ______________ 24 _____________ 24 ________________24.0

T19_davehsug (12) ____________ 25 _____________ 23 ________________24.0

22 _ Stationary Front (12) _______ 36 _____________ 18 ________________27.0

23 _ Jonboy (12) ______________ 48 ______________ 7 ________________27.5

24 _ Kirkcaldy Weather (10) _____ 26 _____________ 30 ________________ 28.0

25 _ doctor32 (10)______________19 _____________T38 _______________ 28.5

T26_weather-history (12) ________32 _____________T26 _______________ 29.0

T26_Jeff C ___________________39 ______________19________________ 29.0

28 _ syed2878 ________________46 ______________14 _______________ 30.0

29 _ Roger J Smith (12) _________37 _____________ 25 ________________31.0

30 _ weather26 (12, 11) _________31 _____________ 34 ________________32.5

T31_EdStone (12, 11) __________ 28 _____________T42 _______________ 35.0

T31_Bobd29 (12) ______________42 _____________T28 _______________ 35.0

T31_Let It Snow! (12, 9) ________ 49 _____________ 21 ________________ 35.0

34 _ virtualsphere (12, 11) _______34 _____________ 37 ________________35.5

35 _ Relativistic (12) ___________ 43 _____________ 31 ________________37.0

36 _ Dami (12) ________________44 _____________ 32 ________________38.0

37 _ Daniel* (12, 9) ____________47 _____________ T38 _______________ 42.5

38 _ Diagonal Red Line (10, 7) ___45 ______________41 ________________43.0

39 _ Lettucing Gutted (12) _______51 _____________ T95 _______________73.0

--- (fewer than 10 in both, or much fewer entries to EWP) -----

--- this section includes only ranked CET (2) and 6+ both, fewer than 6 in both check tables

--- ranks before names are positions in table above, without changing lower ranks there

T23 vizzy2004 (8) _____________ 20 (equivalent) ____ 35 _______________ 27.5

T28 ChrisBell-notthe-wxman (9) __T43 (equivalent) ___ 17 _______________ 30.0

30 _ AlexisJ9 (9) ______________ 21 (equivalent) ____ T42 ______________ 31.5

T36_Mapantz (8) ______________ 40 (equivalent) ____ 36 _______________38.0

38 _ CheesePuffScott (7) ________42 (equivalent) ____ 45 _______________ 43.5

39 _ TJM14 (6) ________________ 39 (equivalent) ____ 49 ______________ 44.0

39 _ simshady (6) ______________ 50 (equivalent) ____ 40 ______________ 45.0

39 _ timmytour (6) ______________ 49 (equivalent) ____44 ______________ 46.5

39 _ Blast From the Past (9) ______ 51 (equivalent) ____46 ______________ 48.5

39 _ Prolonged Snow Lover (9,7) __ 51 (equivalent) ___ 51 _______________ 51.0

39 _ Duncan McAlister (12, 1) ____ 27 _____________T87 _______________ 57.0

40 _ I Remember Atl 252 (11,1) ___50 ______________ 97 _______________ 73.5

_____________________________________________________________________

CET forecasts only, with rankings there _

Man with Beard (1), metaltron (4), Summer Blizzard (9), damianslaw (14), Mark Bayley (T21)

dancerwithwings (29), Summer Sun (33), snowray (35), sundog (40), Kentish Man (41)

 

______________________________________________________________________

^ note: the one forecaster who entered more EWP than CET was J10, that was because he

disqualified his Jan 2018 entry in CET for being late but made the extended EWP deadline.

If he had counted the CET forecast because of the scoring system using averages, it

might not have made any difference to CET rank . 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith
corrected entry for DAVID SNOW

[DAVID SNOW]

CET 7th Roger sorry.

[Roger J Smith]

You're right, I saw seven and typed eight, have edited that in -- not a tie for 6th as shown before, but 6th for DAVID SNOW (7, 12 _ 9.5) and 7th alone for Dr(S)No ranks as shown. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for January 2019 CET and EWP contests

note: forecasts shown in order of CET, EWP order of entry for same values is shown by asterisks ... one means second entry, two denote third entry of same value. A list below the table also gives the EWP forecasts in order.

Forecaster ___ order __ CET __ EWP 

Lettucing Gutted __ (4) ___ 9.5 __ 200.0

syed2878 ______ (24) ____6.5 ___ 90.5 

coldest winter ___ (40) ___ 6.5 ___ -----

Relativistic ______(34) ___ 6.1 __ 140.0

Jason M _______ (22) ___ 6.0 ___ ----- 

IRemAtlantic 252 _ (1) ___ 5.9 __ 165.0

Timmytour ______(29) ___ 5.9 __ 145.0 

AWD __________ (L3) ___ 5.6 ___ 72.0

stewfox ________ (26) ___ 5.5 __ 125.0

iapennell _______ (23) ___ 5.2 __ 100.0

Evening Star ____ (30) ___ 5.2 __ 122.0 

The PIT ________ (10) ___ 5.0 ___ 95.0

summer sun _____(35) ___ 5.0 ___ -----

BlastFromThePast (38) ___ 5.0 ___ 45.0*

Ultima Thule ____ (64) ___ 5.0 ___ 53.0

stargazer _______ (32) ___ 4.9 ___ 89.0 

Mark Bayley _____(60) ___ 4.9 ___ ----- 

weather26 _______ (6) ___ 4.8 ___ 56.0*

average 1989-2018 ______4.7 ___ 95.8

reef ____________(48) ___ 4.6 ___ 62.0

J10 ____________ (67) ___ 4.5 __ 100.0*

Ed Stone ________(27) ___ 4.4 ___ 82.0

average 1981-2010 _______4.4 ___ 93.0

SteveB __________(28) ___ 4.2 __ 136.0  

ThunderyWintryShwrs (50) __4.2 ___ 48.0

Froze were the days (62) ___ 4.2 ___ -----

vizzy2004 ________ (39) ___ 4.1 ___ 35.0*

Man with Beard ____(63) ___ 4.1 ___ -----

CheesepuffScott ___ (31) ___ 4.0 ___ 40.0

WalsallWoodSnow __(41) ___ 4.0 ___ -----

Norrance _________ (53) ___ 4.0 ___ 30.0*

Jonathan F. ________ (9) ___ 3.9 ___ -----

Damianslaw _______(37) ___ 3.9 ___ -----

virtualsphere ______ (36) ___ 3.8 ___ 84.0

BornFromTheVoid __ (52) ___ 3.8 ___ 50.0

Don ______________(59) ___ 3.7 ___ 55.0*

Ladyofthestorm _____(25) ___ 3.6 ___ -----

DR(S)NO, consensus (14) __ 3.5 ___ 85.0 (CET consensus)

weather-history _____(44) ___ 3.5 ___ 37.0 

Duncan McAlister ___ (56) ___ 3.5 ___ -----

Kentish Man _______ (45) ___ 3.4 ___ -----

davehsug _________ (L4) ___ 3.4 ___ 31.0

pegg24 ___________ (16) ___ 3.3 ___ -----

doctor32 __________ (42) ___ 3.3 ___ 30.0 

DAVID SNOW ______(61) ___ 3.3 ___ 33.0

Let it Snow! ________ (3) ___ 3.2 ___ 27.0^

nn2013 ___________ (20) ___ 3.2 ___ -----

brmbrmcar ________ (11) ___ 3.1 ___ 90.1

dami _____________ (13) ___ 3.1 ___ 23.0 

stationary front _____ (43) ___ 3.1 ___ 76.0

Mulzy ____________ (51) ___ 3.1 ___ 45.0**

dancerwithwings ____(66) ___ 3.1 ___ -----

Quicksilver1989 ____ (46) ___ 3.0 ___ -----

Feb1991blizzard ____(58) ___ 2.9 ___ 66.0*

Bobd29 ___________ (7) ___ 2.8 ___ 35.0

SLEETY __________(21) ___ 2.8 ___ 60.0 (EWP consensus 61.0)

sundog ___________(49) ___ 2.8 ___ -----

Midlands Ice Age __ (65) ___ 2.8 ___ 60.0*

Summer Blizzard __ (L2) ___ 2.8 ___ -----

seaside60 ________(L1) ___ 2.7 ___ 42.0

Kirkcaldy Weather _ (15) ___ 2.5 ___ 78.6

crewe cold _______ (17) ___ 2.4 ___ -----

Godber.1 ________ (54) ___ 2.4 ___ 66.0

Leo97t __________ (55) ___ 2.2 ___ 55.0

snowray _________ (47) ___ 2.1 ___ -----

jonboy ___________(33) ___ 1.9 ___ 90.0

Polar Gael ________(12) ___ 2.0 __ 100.2

Roger J Smith _____(57) ___ 1.7 ___ 58.5

Radiating Dendrite __ (2) ___ 1.5 ___ 56.0

Jeff C ___________ (19) ___ 0.5 ___ 95.0*

daniel* ___________ (8) ___--0.3 ___ 45.0

prolonged snow lover (18) __--0.5 ___ -----

Optimus Prime _____ (5) ___--1.2 ___ -----

__________________________________________

^ let it snow precip forecast added after 40th CET

Consensus of 71 CET forecasts is 3.5, and of 50 EWP forecasts, 61.0 mm ...

all four late forecasts L1 to L4 are one day late. 

table posted at 1030h 3rd, later entries will be noted below if any are submitted (deadline midnight tonight)

___________________________________

EWP forecasts in order of size (mm)

Lettucing Gutted 200.0, IRememberAtlantic252 165.0, Timmytour 145.0, Relativistic 140.0

SteveB 136.0, stewfox 125.0, Evening Star 122.0, Polar Gael 100.2

IAPennell, J10, 100.0, The PIT, Jeff C 95.0, syed2878 90.5, brmbrmcar 90.1, jonboy 90.0

Stargazer 89.0, DR(S)No 85.0, virtualsphere 84.0, Ed Stone 82.0, Kirkcaldy Weather 78.6

Stationary Front 76.0, AWD 72.0, Godber.1, Feb1991Blizzard 66.0, Reef 62.0

(consensus) 61.0 mm  ... SLEETY, Midlands Ice Age 60.0. Roger J Smith 58.5, 

Radiating Dendrite, weather26 56.0, Leo97t, Don 55.0, Ultima Thule 53.0, pegg24, BornFromTheVoid 50.0,

Thundery Wintry Showers 48.0, daniel*, Blast from the Past, Mulzy 45.0, Seaside60 42.0, CheesepuffScott 40.0

weather-history 37.0, Bobd29, vizzy2004 35.0, DAVID SNOW 33.0, davehsug 31.0, 

doctor32, Norrance 30.0, Let it Snow! 27.0, dami 23.0

Edited February 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith
revised Reef EWP and added pegg24 EWP (errors found on check of forecasts)

[J10]

Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10

With the December CET of 6.9c being 2.3c above average, no one got it spot on.

syed2878 was closest 0,4c out.
Froze were the Days was 0.5c out.
Quicksilver1989 and feb1991blizzard were both 0,6c out and topping out the Top 5 was
SLEETY 0.7c out.

The Overall and Seasonal Top 5 was the same as the monthly Top 5.

1. syed2878
2. Froze were the Days was 0.5c out.
3. Quicksilver1989
4. feb1991blizzard
5. SLEETY

Dec 2018 CET.xlsx

Edited January 4, 2019 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Seasonal winners in EWP contest

As I plan to identify seasonal leaders in this 2018-19 contest year, I have made this brief summary of top three scores in each season of the first contest year (2017-18) using the Hadley scores.

Season ______________ First Place ____________ Second Place _____________ Third Place

winter 2017-18 ________ vizzy2004 (26.0) ________ Polar Gael (23.1) __________ jonboy (22.9)

spring 2018 ___________ J10 (25.6) _____________seaside60 (24.5) ___________Norrance (24.0)

summer 2018 __________ChrisBellnotthewxman (24.3) _Singularity (23.1) ___________Don (22.2)

autumn 2018 ___________Dr(S)No (22.8) _________Singularity (21.8) ___________Midlands Ice Age (20.8)

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP final value for December 2018 was 115.8 mm. 

Top score goes to Blast from the Past who predicted 115.0 mm, second place Feb1991Blizzard (117.0) and third to Singularity (114.0 mm).

The full contest scoring is now on excel, at this link. 

 

EWP20182019.xlsx

[Roger J Smith]

CET and EWP forecasts for February 2019

_____________________

(numbers in brackets refer to order of entry ... L1 has four entries and L2 has three, these are one and two days late).

 

FORECASTER _______ CET ___ EWP _________ FORECASTER _____ CET ___ EWP

Lettucing Gutted (3) ____ 10.0 __ 500 __________ consensus __________ 4.0 ___ 70

Polar Gael (14) ________ 7.0 __ 105.2 _________ kold weather (10) ______3.9 __ 105

syed2878 (26) _________ 7.0 ___ 80.5 _________ coldest winter (23) _____ 3.9 ___ ---

Optimus Prime (30) _____ 6.9 ___ ---- __________ Summer Blizzard (33) ___3.9 ___ ----

DiagonalRedLine (24) ___ 6.5 ___ 50 __________ Mark Bayley (44) _______ 3.9 ___ ----

Timmytour (25) ________ 5.9 ___ 95 ___________damianslaw (52) _______ 3.9 ___ ---- 

Radiating dendrite (L2-2) _5.3 ___ 57 ___________ dancerwithwings (32) ___3.8 ___ ----

weather26 (4) _________ 5.2 __ 124 ___________ daniel* (L1-3) _________ 3.8 ___ 77

Ultima Thule (L2-3) _____ 5.2 ___ 70

 IRememberAtl 252 (19) _ 5.1 ___ 137 ___________Feb91Blizzard (48) ____ 3.7 ___ 87

Froze were the Days (56) 5.1 ___ ---- ___________ Deep Snow (16) _______3.6 ___ ---

vizzy2004 (L1-1) _______ 5.1 ___ 77 ___________Godber 1 (43) ________ 3.6 ___ 70

Reef (35) _____________5.0 ___ 55 ___________ DR(S)NO (12) ________ 3.5 ___ 75

average 1989-2018 ____ 4.9 ___ 72.8 _________ Man With Beard (34) ____3.5 ___ ----

Roger J Smith (58) _____ 4.8 ___ 89.6 _________ Mulzy (38) ____________3.5 ___ 50

Pegg24 (14) __________ 4.6 ___ 90 ___________ Leo 97t (51) __________3.5 ___ ----

Norrance (46) _________ 4.5 ___ 35 ___________Kentish Man (61) ______ 3.4 ___ ----

average 1981-2010 ____ 4.4 ___ 66.5 __________Jonathan F. (11) _______3.3 ___ ----

virtualsphere (20) ______ 4.4 ___ 83 ___________ DAVID SNOW (63) ____ 3.3 ___ 33

Summer Sun (50) ______ 4.4 ___ ---- ___________ J10 (54) ____________3.2 ___ 65

snowray (L1-4) _________4.4 ___ ---- 

B87 (2) _______________4.3 ___ 20 ___________ sundog (39) _________3.0 ___ ----

Blast from the Past (45) __4.3 ___ 50 ___________ CheesepuffScott (5) __ 2.9 ___ 77

Born from the Void (57) __4.3 ___ 70 ____________ icykev (1) ___________2.8 ___ 97.7

Kirkcaldy Weather (9) ___ 4.2 ___ 92.6 __________ nn2013 (15) _________ 2.8 ___ ----

 The PIT (18) __________ 4.2 ___ 50 ___________ Ed Stone (27) ________ 2.7 ___ 66

Midlands Ice Age (42) ___ 4.2 ___ 55 ______Thundery Wintry Showers (53)_ 2.6 ___ 47

Don (59) ______________4.2 ___ 70 ___________ dami (22) ___________ 2.3 ___ 89

Nigerian Prince (60) _____4.2 ___ 50___________ jonboy (37) __________ 2.2 ___ 70

snow dayz (L1-2) _______4.2 ___ 85 ___________ 

weather-history (36) ____ 4.1 ___ 57 _____________SteveB (17) _________2.1 ___ 67

Bobd29 (7) ___________ 4.1 ___ 45 _____________ brmbrmcar (21) ______ 1.9 ___ 70.9

davehsug (41) _________ 4.1 ___ 77 ____________ Walsall Wood Snow (29)_1.6___ ----

Stationary Front (49) ____ 4.1 ___ 78 _________ ProlongedSnowLover (L2-1)_1.5

seaside60 (55) ________ 4.0 ___ 65 _____________ Let It Snow ! (40) ______1.1 ___ 51

Jeff C (8) _____________4.0 ___ 70 _____________ cheeky monkey (6) ____ -0.2 ___ ---- 

stargazer (28) _________ 4.0 ___ 49 _____________ Deep snow please (47) _ -7.8 __ 350

stewfox (31) ___________4.0 ___ 77 _____________

Duncan McAlister (62) ___4.0 ___ ----

________________________________________________________

Consensus: 70 CET forecasts, median 4.0 __ 50 EWP forecasts, median 70 mm. 

_____________________________________________________________

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

==========================================================

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EWP forecasts in order

500.0_LG ... 350.0_DSP ... 137.0_IRA t l 252 ... 124.0_weather26 ... 105.2_Polar Gael ... 105.0_kold weather 

97.7_icykev ... 95.0_Timmytour ... 92.6_Kirkcaldy Weather ... 90.0_pegg24 ... 89.6_Roger J Smith ... 89.0_Dami

87.0_Feb91Blizzard ... 85.0_snow dayz (1d late) ... 83.0_virtualsphere ... 80.5_syed2878 ... 78.0_Stationary Front

 [ 77.0_CPS (5), stewfox (31), davehsug (41), vizzy2004 (L1-1), daniel* (L1-3) ]

75.0_Dr(S)No ...70.9_brmbrmcar 

[ 70.0_Jeff C (8), jonboy (37), Godber 1 (43), BFTV (57), Don (59), Ultima Thule (L2-3) ] 

67.0_SteveB ... 66.0_Ed Stone ... [ 65.0_J10 (54), seaside60 (55) ] ... [ 57.0_weather-history (36), Rad Dendrite (L2-2) ]  

[ 55.0_Reef (35), Midlands Ice Age (42), ] ... 51.0_Let It Snow! ...

[ 50.0_The PIT (18), DRL (24), Mulzy (38), BFTP (45), Nigerian Prince (60) ] ... 49.0_stargazer ...

47.0_TWS ... 45.0_Bobd29 ... 35.0_Norrance ... 33.0_DAVID SNOW ... 20.0_B87 ... 

Edited February 3, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

On 04/01/2019 at 15:15, J10 said:

 

On 02/02/2019 at 22:27, J10 said:

Monthly

As mentioned above, 3 correct entries this month. - January 2019

CheesepuffScott, Walsall Wood Snow and Norrance

Seasonal and Overall

A new Top 3 Froze were the Days, CheesepuffScott and SteveB 

Excel Spreadsheet

Jan 19 CET.xlsx

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2019 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Summary of forecasts for March 2019 CET and EWP

12.0 _ 200 ___ Lettucing Gutted (7) ____ ___ 6.8 _ 95.0 ___ Mulzy (42) ___________ ___ 

 9.9 _ 30.0 ___ Relativistic (21) ________ ___6.8 _ ----- ___ Summer Sun (46) ______ ___

 8.9 _ 55.0 ___ Timmytour (24) ________ ___6.8 _ 64.3 __ mean 1989-2018

 8.4 _ ----- ___ Coldest Winter (1) ______ ___ 6.7 _154.0__ IRememberAtlantic252 (6*)

 8.0 _ 90.0 ___ Reef (29) _____________ ___6.7 _ 79.0 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers (60) 

 7.9 _ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (8)  ________ ___ 6.6 _106.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (45)

 7.8 _ 60.0 ___ weather-history (3) _____ ___ 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 7.8 _ 55.0 ___ Blast from the Past (13) _ ___ 6.5 _ 75.0 ___ Dr(S)No (5)

 7.8 _ 70.0 ___ The Pit (26) ___________ ___ 6.5 _ 78.0 ___ Bobd29 (31)

 7.7 _ 66.0 ___ Ed Stone (16) _________ ___ 6.5 _ 81.0 ___ Norrance (33)

 7.7 _ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (52) ____ ___ 6.5 _ ----- ___ Katrine Basso (36)

 7.6 _ ----- ___ Summer Blizzard (14) ___ ___ 6.5 _135.0 ___ Don (53) ___

 7.5 _ 87.0 ___ CheesepuffScott (10*) __ ___ 6.4 _ 62.0 ___ emmett garland (39)

 7.5 _ 97.0 ___ Stationary Front (44) ___ ___ 6.4 _ 78.0 ___ Midlands Ice Age (41)

 7.5 _ ----- ___ Evening Star (L3) ______ ___ 

 7.4 _ 50.0 ___ snow dayz (4) _________ ___6.3 _ 70.0 ___ Jeff C. (12) 

 7.4 _ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (30) ___ ___ 6.3 _110.0 ___Godber.1 (58) 

 7.3 _ 62.0 ___ Let It Snow! (2) ________ ___6.2 _ 77.4 ___Kirkcaldy Weather (17) 

 7.3 _ ----- ___ sundog (54) ___________ ___6.2 _ ----- ___ nn2013 (35)

 7.3 _ 83.0 ___ Ultima Thule (L2)

 7.2 _ 74.0 ___ stargazer (9) __________ ___6.2 _112.0 ___ daniel* (49)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (22) _______ ___6.0 _ ----- ___ snowray (19)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Damianslaw (37) _______ ___5.9 _ ----- ___ Kentish Man (57)

 7.2 _ 77.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (48) _____ ___5.7 _ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister (51)

 7.1 _ 89.0 ___ Steve B (43) __________ ___5.6 _116.0___ weather26 (15) 

 7.0 _ 70.5 ___ Roger J Smith (18) _____ ___5.6 _ 95.0 ___ syed2878 (20)

 7.0 _ ----- ___ Leo97t (25) ___________ ___5.6 _ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (28)

 7.0 _ 78.0 ___ seaside60 (47) ________ ___5.5 _ ----- ___ Virtualsphere (11) 

 7.0 _109.0 ___ brmbrmcar (50) _______ ___5.4 _ 65.0 ___ Jonboy (32)

 7.0 _100.0 ___ J10 (55) _____________ ___5.3 _ 125.0 ___ SLEETY (23)

 7.0 _ 84.0 ___ Born From the Void (59) _ ___4.7 _ 79.0 ___ Diagonal Red Line (27)

 6.9 _ ----- ___ Man with Beard (34) also consensus CET

 6.9 _ 82.0 ___ Polar Gael (38) _______ ___

 6.9 _150.0 ___ stewfox (40) _________ ___

 6.9 _ 73.0 ___ davehsug (56) ________ ___

 6.9 _ 88.0 ___ pegg24 (L1) __________ ___ 

 ____________________________________________________________

numbers in brackets are order of entry ... one each at late 1, 2 and 3 days (L1, L2, L3)

* entry 6 later added EWP only, at entry position 49+1

* entry 10 later changed EWP only, at entry position 49+2

_____________________________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

200.0 LG, 154.0 IRA252, 150.0 stew, 135.0 Don, 125.0 SLE, 116.0 wx26, 112.0 dan*, 110.0 Godb, 109.0 brm,

106.0 Feb91, 100.0 J10, 97.0 SF, 95.0 syed, Mulzy, 90.0 Reef, 89.0 SteveB, 88.0 Pegg, 87.0 CPScott, 84.0 BFTV,

 83.0 UT, 82.0 PG, 81.0 Norr, 79.0 DRLine, TWS, con .. 78.0 Bobd, MIA, sea60, 77.4 Kirkwx, 77.0 DS, 75.0 Dr(S)No,

 74.0 star, 73.0 dave, 71.5 1981-2010, 70.5 RJS, 70.0 JeffC, The Pit,  66.0 EdS, 65.0 jon, 64.3 1989-2018

62.0 LIS!, emg, 60.0 wx-hist, 55.0 BFTP, tim, 50.0 sdayz, 30.0 Rel 

______________________________________________________________

63 CET forecasts, consensus 6.9

43 EWP forecasts, consensus 79.0 mm. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Summary of forecasts for March 2019 CET and EWP

12.0 _ 200 ___ Lettucing Gutted (7) ____ ___ 6.8 _ 95.0 ___ Mulzy (42) ___________ ___ 

 9.9 _ 30.0 ___ Relativistic (21) ________ ___6.8 _ ----- ___ Summer Sun (46) ______ ___

 8.9 _ 55.0 ___ Timmytour (24) ________ ___6.8 _ 64.3 __ mean 1989-2018

 8.4 _ ----- ___ Coldest Winter (1) ______ ___ 6.7 _154.0__ IRememberAtlantic252 (6*)

 8.0 _ 90.0 ___ Reef (29) _____________ ___6.7 _ 79.0 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers (60) 

 7.9 _ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (8)  ________ ___ 6.6 _106.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (45)

 7.8 _ 60.0 ___ weather-history (3) _____ ___ 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 7.8 _ 55.0 ___ Blast from the Past (13) _ ___ 6.5 _ 75.0 ___ Dr(S)No (5)

 7.8 _ 70.0 ___ The Pit (26) ___________ ___ 6.5 _ 78.0 ___ Bobd29 (31)

 7.7 _ 66.0 ___ Ed Stone (16) _________ ___ 6.5 _ 81.0 ___ Norrance (33)

 7.7 _ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (52) ____ ___ 6.5 _ ----- ___ Katrine Basso (36)

 7.6 _ ----- ___ Summer Blizzard (14) ___ ___ 6.5 _135.0 ___ Don (53) ___

 7.5 _ 87.0 ___ CheesepuffScott (10*) __ ___ 6.4 _ 62.0 ___ emmett garland (39)

 7.5 _ 97.0 ___ Stationary Front (44) ___ ___ 6.4 _ 78.0 ___ Midlands Ice Age (41) (51)

 7.5 _ ----- ___ Evening Star (L3) ______ ___ 

 7.4 _ 50.0 ___ snow dayz (4) _________ ___6.3 _ 70.0 ___ Jeff C. (12) 

 7.4 _ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (30) ___ ___ 6.3 _110.0 ___Godber.1 (58) 

 7.3 _ 62.0 ___ Let It Snow! (2) ________ ___6.2 _ 77.4 ___Kirkcaldy Weather (17) 

 7.3 _ ----- ___ sundog (54) ___________ ___6.2 _ ----- ___ nn2013 (35)

 7.3 _ 83.0 ___ Ultima Thule (L2)

 7.2 _ 74.0 ___ stargazer (9) __________ ___6.2 _112.0 ___ daniel* (49)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (22) _______ ___6.0 _ ----- ___ snowray (19)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Damianslaw (37) _______ ___5.9 _ ----- ___ Kentish Man (57)

 7.2 _ 77.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (48) _____ ___5.7 _ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister

 7.1 _ 89.0 ___ Steve B (43) __________ ___5.6 _116.0___ weather26 (15) 

 7.0 _ 70.5 ___ Roger J Smith (18) _____ ___5.6 _ 95.0 ___ syed2878 (20)

 7.0 _ ----- ___ Leo97t (25) ___________ ___5.6 _ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (28)

 7.0 _ 78.0 ___ seaside60 (47) ________ ___5.5 _ ----- ___ Virtualsphere (11) 

 7.0 _109.0 ___ brmbrmcar (50) _______ ___5.4 _ 65.0 ___ Jonboy (32)

 7.0 _100.0 ___ J10 (55) _____________ ___5.3 _ 125.0 ___ SLEETY (23)

 7.0 _ 84.0 ___ Born From the Void (59) _ ___4.7 _ 79.0 ___ Diagonal Red Line (27)

 6.9 _ ----- ___ Man with Beard (34) also consensus CET

 6.9 _ 82.0 ___ Polar Gael (38) _______ ___

 6.9 _150.0 ___ stewfox (40) _________ ___

 6.9 _ 73.0 ___ davehsug (56) ________ ___

 6.9 _ 88.0 ___ pegg24 (L1) __________ ___ 

 ____________________________________________________________

numbers in brackets are order of entry ... one each at late 1, 2 and 3 days (L1, L2, L3)

* entry 6 later added EWP only, at entry position 49+1

* entry 10 later changed EWP only, at entry position 49+2

_____________________________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

200.0 LG, 154.0 IRA252, 150.0 stew, 135.0 Don, 125.0 SLE, 116.0 wx26, 112.0 dan*, 110.0 Godb, 109.0 brm,

106.0 Feb91, 100.0 J10, 97.0 SF, 95.0 syed, Mulzy, 90.0 Reef, 89.0 SteveB, 88.0 Pegg, 87.0 CPScott, 84.0 BFTV,

 83.0 UT, 82.0 PG, 81.0 Norr, 79.0 DRLine, TWS, con .. 78.0 Bobd, MIA, sea60, 77.4 Kirkwx, 77.0 DS, 75.0 Dr(S)No,

 74.0 star, 73.0 dave, 71.5 1981-2010, 70.5 RJS, 70.0 JeffC, The Pit,  66.0 EdS, 65.0 jon, 64.3 1989-2018

62.0 LIS!, emg, 60.0 wx-hist, 55.0 BFTP, tim, 50.0 sdayz, 30.0 Rel 

______________________________________________________________

63 CET forecasts, consensus 6.9

43 EWP forecasts, consensus 79.0 mm. 

Thanks for the above...

One question

Why have I got both (41) and (51) against my name?

MIA

 

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for spotting that. Your order of entry was (41). The (51) belonged to Duncan McAlister. I think what happened was that the (51) got left behind when I was moving entries around in that second column to balance against the first column. So all is fixed up now. I can edit posts now so the mistake is fixed in the original post you quoted and the source in the March thread. 

[Roger J Smith]

The scoring for February EWP is now official with 55.0 mm entered in their tables. This was the provisional value already posted in the February thread. The excel file below contains all scoring.

First place for February (10.0) goes to Reef (55.0 mm) with Midlands Ice Age scoring 9.9 for the same entry in a later position. 

First place overall (and therefore for the winter seasonal contest) goes to Blast from the Past. 

 

EWP20182019c.xlsx

[Roger J Smith]

Summary of entries -- April 2019

All entries are shown with CET and where provided EWP forecasts. There are two columns with the CET consensus at the bottom of the first column. Then there is a separate ranked listing of EWP forecasts following the joint table of entries. Numbers in brackets refer to order of entry into the CET contest.

* When a CET forecast is revised but the EWP forecast is held, a second number appears with an asterisk. This will be a decimal to avoid confusion in the CET contest order. For example, EdStone revised his CET forecast which was first submitted as 5th entry. His revised submission was the 28th entry; that moved up all entries 6th to 28th previously to 5th to 27th and so the EWP entry is shown as 4.5 in order. 

 

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) __________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry)

 

14.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (6) _______________  8.4 ___ 89.0 __ SteveB (4)

10.5 ___ 52.0 __ Evening Star (3) __________________  8.4 ___ 80.0 __ weather-history (26)

10.5 ___ 90.0 __ Brmbrmcar (9) ____________________ 8.4 ___ ----- __ Damianslaw (27)

10.2 ___ 47.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (23) ______________  8.4 ___ ----- __ Summer Sun (38)

10.0 ___ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-5) ___________  8.4 ___ 18.0 __ Emmett Garland (43, 10.5*)

 9.9 ___ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (45) ________________  8.3 ___ 85.0 __ Let It Snow! (2)

 9.7 ___ 63.0 __ CheesepuffScott (7) ________________  8.3 ___ ----- __ Man with Beard (34)

 9.7 ___ ----- __ Jonathan F. (10) ____________________ 8.3 ___ 89.0 __ Stationary Front (37)  

 9.5 ___ 55.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (33) ________________8.2 ___ 59.0 __ virtualsphere (16)

 9.5 ___ 63.0 __ J10 (53) __________________________ 8.2 ___ 63.0 __ Norrance (36)

 9.4 ___ 80.0 __ JeffC (12)  ________________________ 8.2 __ 105.0 __ Davehsug (50)

 9.3 ___ 58.0 __ seaside 60 (42) ____________________ 8.2 __ 150.0 __ stewfox (L2-3) 

 9.2 ___ 81.4 __ Weather26 (1) _____________________ 8.1 ___ 92.0 __ shuggee (41)

 9.2 __ 100.0 __ nn2013 (13) _______________________ 8.1 ___ 68.0 __ Ultima Thule (49)

 9.2 ___ 55.0 __ EdStone (28, 4.5*) __________________ 7.9 __ 100.0 __ Pegg24 (20)

 9.1 ___ ----- __ Sundog (51) ________________________7.9 ___ ----- __ dancerwithwings (22)

 9.0 ___ 60.0 __ The PIT (21) _______________________ 7.8 ___ 75.0 __ Reef (29)

 9.0 ___ ----- __ Summer Blizzard (35) ________________ 7.7 ___ ----- __ snowray (18)

 8.9 ___ 55.0 __ DAVID SNOW (44) __________________ 7.7 ___ 77.0 __ Timmytour (24)

 8.8 ___ 59.0 __ Stargazer (25) ______________________ 7.6 __ 135.0 __ Had Worse (47)

 8.8 ___ 58.0 __ AWD (40) __________________________7.6 ___ 80.2 __ Polar Gael (L2-2)

 8.8 ___ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (L1-3) _______________7.4 ___ 95.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (30)

 8.8 ___ 60.0 __ Born From the Void (L1-4) _____________7.1 __ 130.0 __ IRememberAtlantic252 (17)

 8.8 ___64.7 __average 1989-2018  __________________ 7.1 ___ ----- __ JBMWeatherForever (46)

 8.7 ___ 93.0 __ Bobd29 (5) _________________________ 7.0 ___ 81.0 __ jonboy (39)

 8.7 ___ ----- __ Mark Bayley (32) _____________________ 6.9 ___ ----- __ Kentish Man (54)

 8.7 ___ 88.0 __ Mulzy (48)  _________________________ 6.9 ___ 50.0 __ Daniel* (L1-2)

 8.6 ___ 64.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (11) ________________ 6.6 ___ 25.0 __ Blast From The Past (31)

 8.5 ___ 75.0 __ DR(S)NO (8)  _______________________ 6.6 ___ 84.0 __ Godber.1 (52)

 8.5 ___64.8 __average 1981-2010 ___________________ 6.5 ___ 45.0 __ Roger J Smith (14)

 8.5 ___ 90.0 __ Don (L1-1)  _________________________ 6.5 __ 120.0 __ Syed2878 (19)

 8.4 ___ 75.0 __ consensus _________________________6.1 ___ 45.0 __ SLEETY (15) 

________________________________________________ 5.7 ___ ----- __ Prolonged Snow Lover (L2-1)

___________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________

54 on time forecasts, five since added are one day late, and three are two days late ... 62 forecasts, median (consensus) 8.4 C. 

late forecasts still accepted to end of 3rd April, will be added to table.

_________________________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

200 _ LG .... ... 150 _ STEW (+2d) ... ... 135 _ HW ... ... 130 _ IRA252 ... ... 120 _ SYED ... ... 105 _ DAVEH ... ... 100 _ NN2013, PEGG

 95 _ MIA ... ... 93 _ BOB ... ... 92 _ SHUG ... ... 90 _ BRM, DON (+1d) ... ...  89 _ STEV, SF ... ... 88 _ MUL ... ...85 _ LIS  ... ... 84 GODBER

 81.4 _ wx26 ... ... 81 _ JON ... ... 80.2 _ PG (+2d) ... ... 80 _ JEFF, Wx-H ... ... 77 _ TIM ... ... 75.0 _ con  .. 75 _ DR(S)NO, REEF ... ... 68 _ ULT

 64.6 _ KW ... ... 63 _ CPS, NORR, J10 ... ... 60 _ PIT, BFTV (+1d) ... ... 59 _ VIRT, STAR ... ... 58 _ AWD, SEA ... ... 55 _ EDS, FEB91, DAVS 

 52 _ EVE ... ... 50 _ DAN* (+1d) ... ... 47 _ DRL ... ... 45 _ RJS, SLEETY .. ...  25 _ BFTP ... ... 18 _ EG

_______________________________________

42 on-time forecasts, five added that are late, total so far 47 forecasts, median 75.0 mm. 

[Roger J Smith]

Scoring for EWP contest through March with annual update ...

Top five in March

1. syed2878 (10.0 pts) _ 2. mulzy (9.9 pts) _ 3. Stationary Front (9.6 pts) _ 4. Reef (9.3 pts) _ 5. J10 (9.1 pts).

Annual top ten to date

1. Mulzy ____________ 6. Blast from the Past

2. Reef _____________ 7. weather-history

3. Thundery W Sh _____8. Midlands Ice Age

4. Born from the Void __ 9. Feb91Blizzard

5. Seaside60 ________10. J10, Cheesepuff Scott (tie)

 

=========================

All scoring found here:

 

EWP20182019d.xlsx