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CET Competition - the scores ongoing


J10

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Overall forecast rating

(for those participating in both temp and precip contests)

_____________________________________________________________

This table shows you where you rank in both temp and precip contests -- 

if you have entered all four, plus a few added entries such as (Weather26) who

entered 3/4 of precip contests.

The temperature contest is by total points portion (not the overall points) as those

are based on the same concept as the precip contest, namely, rank order.

This table shows only your current ranking after four months, and is in the

order of least total ranking. If you have a better stat in one part than the other, 

it may tell you something useful to improve your "other" forecast. 

The three robots are ranked by mean of their ranges as explained in the posts

showing their performances. Their ranks do not bump any lower ranked actual 

forecasters down. Since nobody enters only the precip contest, all missing ranks

refer to forecasters who only enter the CET (temperature) contest. One exception

is J10 who was scored for a precip forecast in a month where he did not score

his CET forecast, so his CET rank of 46 among EWP forecasters is more like 35? --

at any rate he appears lower down this table than merited.

__ I have removed the CET ranks that apply to non-EWP forecasters and listed them

below, but you can also discern where they are from the asterisks beside

CET ranks (e.g., 7**** means 11th ranked but four are not in the EWP comparison.)

Every five asterisks are replaced with a # symbol (e.g., #** means seven *).

__ The forecasters in CET (rank for monthly points only, overall order is slightly different)

who are not in the table (two to four CET and zero EWP forecasts) are

Man with Beard (2), snowray (5), sundog (9), damianslaw (10),  metaltron (16),

summer blizzard (17), Kentish man (22), Summer Sun (28), Duncan McAlister (29),

Mark Bayley (33), dancerwithwings (38), nn2013 (44 for 3 CET), Optimus Prime

(48 for 3 CET), Gael Force (51 for 3 CET), Froze were the Days (52 for 3 CET)

Festive Freeze (69) et al .. .. 

In the table, a few have joined in the EWP and so their rank is lower, the number

in brackets would be their rank if their points were accumulating at the rate they

have managed since joining. Also the mean rank is shown both ways. These are

identified by the @ symbol before their name, and it appears the same number

of times as they have entered the EWP contest. 

The table includes a few people who have three in both contests. They are

obviously lower ranked but I have not attempted to "normalize" their ranks.

They are identified as (3-3) before their names. Their actual forecast performance

is probably about ten ranks higher than shown due to the missing forecasts.

The table includes any 2-2, 2-1, or 1-1 entrants in the contests and again does

not attempt to adjust their scores, but you can apply a proportionate increase.

_____________________________________________________________

 

FORECASTER _______ Rank (CET) ___ Rank (Precip) _____ mean

DKeane3 ________________ 2* __________ 5 _____________3.5

Norrance ________________ 1 ___________7 _____________ 4

vizzy2004 ________________6** _________ 3 _____________ 4.5

stewfox __________________5** _________ 6 _____________ 5.5

Born from the Void _________ 4** _________11 ____________ 7.5

Singularity ______________ 16#** ________ 2 _____________ 9

Don _____________________3* _________ 16 ____________ 9.5

SteveB _________________ 13#* _________ 6 ____________ 9.5

Midlands Ice Age _________ 18#** ________ 8 ____________ 13

Dr(S)No ________________ 20#** ________ 9 ____________ 14.5

Polar Gael ______________ 17#** ________12 ____________14.5

seaside 60 ______________ 15#* ________ 15 ____________ 15

jonboy _________________ 30##* ________ 1 ____________ 15.5

Stargazer ________________ 8**** _______ 23 ____________15.5

reef ____________________11**** _______ 21 ____________ 16

mulzy __________________ 14#* ________ 18 ____________ 16

David Snow ______________ 9**** _______ 25 ____________ 17

Godber 1 _______________ 10**** _______ 27 ____________ 18.5

Pegg24 _________________19#** ________22 ____________ 20.5

ChrisBell-not-the-Weatherman 33##* ______ 10 ____________ 21.5

The Pit __________________ 7**** _______ 36 ____________ 21.5

doctor32 ________________12#* ________ 33 ____________ 22.5

___ Consensus ___________ 25 _________ 20 ___________ 22.5

___ 1981-2010 ___________ 33 __________13 ____________23

___ 1988-2017 ___________ 34 __________ 18 ___________ 26

Relativistic ______________ 26## ________ 26 ____________ 26

Roger J Smith ____________28##* _______ 24 ____________ 26

simshady _______________ 41### _______ 13 ____________ 27

Jeff C __________________ 21#**** ______ 34 ____________27.5

Mapantz ________________ 25## ________ 31 ____________28

bobd29 _________________ 37##*** ______19 ____________ 28

syed2878 _______________ 39### _______18 ____________ 28.5

davehsug _______________ 24## ________ 35 ____________29.5

virtualsphere _____________22#**** ______ 39 ____________30.5

Chris.R _________________ 48### _______ 14 ___________ 31

Radiating Dendrite ________ 30##* _______ 32 ____________31

@@@ weather26 _________33##*** _____ 30 (13) ________ 31.5 (23)

dami ___________________ 29##* _______ 37 ____________33

J-10 _____________ (3 of 4) 47### _______ 20 ____________33.5 

Ed Stone ________________27## ________ 43 ____________35

Daniel* _________________ 42### _______ 28 ____________35

Timmytour _______________ 44### ______ 28 ____________ 36

@@ Diagonal Red Line ____ 23#**** ______ 51 (32) ________ 37 (27.5)

Stationary Front __________ 36##***______ 39 ____________ 37.5

weather-history ___________35##**_______ 44 ___________ 39.5

(3-3) Alexis J9 ____________32##* _______ 47 ___________ 39.5

(2-2) Great Plum __________40### _______ 41 ___________ 40.5

(3-3) Fozfoster ___________ 45### _______ 42 ___________ 43.5

(2-2) RAIN RAIN RAIN _____ 43### _______44 ___________ 43.5

Blast from the Past ________38### _______ 56 ____________ 47

@@ . . LET IT SNOW! _____ 59###* ______ 38 (20) _______ 48.5 (39.5)

(1-1) Terminal Moraine _____ 51### _______ 48 ___________ 49.5

(2-2) Kirkcaldy Weather ____ 55###* ______ 46 ____________ 50.5

(1-1) Coram _____________ 52### _______ 53 ____________ 52.5

Prolonged Snow Lover _____ 58###* ______ 50 ____________ 54

(2-2) Castellanus80  _______49### _______ 61 ____________ 55

(1-1) Ricey076 ___________ 54###* ______ 56 ____________ 55

(2-1) Letterboxer __________50### _______ 65 ___________ 57.5

(1-1) Thundery Wintry Showers 63###* _____ 52 ___________ 57.5

(1-1) V for Very Cold _______ 61###* ______ 55 ___________ 58

(2-2) Booferking __________ 64####* _____ 53 ___________ 58.5

@ . . . . I Remember Atl 252 _ 46### _______72 (68) ________ 59 (57)

(1-1) ThunderSnow Days ____56###* ______64 ____________ 60

(2-2) Moorlander __________ 62###* ______ 58 ____________60

(1-1) Sky Full _____________ 53### ______ 68 ____________ 60.5

(1-1) Northwest Snow ______ 74####**** __ 49 ____________ 61.5

(1-1) Matt Tarrant __________57###* ______67 ____________ 62

(1-1) Iapennell ____________ 67####** ____58 ____________ 62.5

(1-1) Ross90 _____________ 65####* _____62 ____________ 63.5

(1-1) James M ____________ 68####*** ___ 60 ____________ 64

(2-1) Coldest Winter ________60###* ______70 ____________ 65

(1-1) Mark Neal ___________ 66####* _____ 66 ____________66

(1-1) High Ground B'ham ___ 69####**** ___ 65 ____________ 67

(1-1) Backtrack ___________ 72####**** ___ 62 ____________ 67

(1-1) More Snow __________ 70####**** ___67 ____________ 68.5

(1-1) Captain Shortwave ____ 70####**** ___69 ___________ 69.5

Lettucing Gutted __________ 73####**** ___ 72 ___________ 72.5

(1-1) Weirpig _____________ 75##### _____70 ___________ 72.5

(1-1) Deep Snow Please ____ 76##### _____74 ___________ 75

__________________________________________________________________________

For those who are full participants, I think these ranks will give you some ideas about how to improve forecasts, some are obviously better at one part than the other, which may indicate something about overall perceptions about patterns. Hope this helps you. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of entries -- CET forecasts

(numbers in brackets after names show the order of entries, * after number is one day late)

 

17.5 _ LETTUCING GUTTED (1)

15.1 _ _ _ _ warmest (1833)

14.4 _ ROGER J SMITH (51)

13.9 _

13.8 _ DANIEL* (58)

13.7 _

13.6 _

13.5 _ VIRTUALSPHERE (64*)

13.4 _ RADIATING DENDRITE (12)

13.3 _ 

13.2 _ 

13.1 _ STEVE B (20)

13.0 _ POLAR GAEL (11)

12.9 _ MAPANTZ (46)

12.8 _ WEATHER26 (6), KIRKCALDY WEATHER (22), DAVEHSUG (59)

12.7 _ MAN WITH BEARD (37), SUMMER BLIZZARD (54), SEASIDE 60 (63*)

12.6 _ PEGG24 (5), SUMMER SUN (23), GODBER.1 (48), MARK BAYLEY (53)

12.5 _ LF1002 (17), ED STONE (25), DON (44), SINGULARITY (56), METALTRON (60)

12.4 _ TJM14 (13), SYED2878 (29), NORRANCE (35), LET IT SNOW! (45), MULZY (49)

12.3 _ DAMIANSLAW (27), BORN FROM THE VOID (38), TIMMYTOUR (39)

12.2 _ B87 (2), JEFFC (8), DR(S)NO (19), OPTIMUS PRIME (24), DOCTOR32 (26), STEWFOX (62)

================= consensus 12.2 =============================

12.1 _ DAVID SNOW (33)

12.0 _ BOBD29 (9), REEF (30), STATIONARY FRONT (41), THE PIT (43), J10 (57)

11.9 _ DAMI (15), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (34), STARGAZER (42), GAEL_FORCE (55)

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1988-2017 average

11.8 _ CHEESEPUFF SCOTT (16), WEATHER-HISTORY (28), JONBOY (32), DKEANE3 (50)

11.7 _ SUNDOG (31), DUNCAN McALISTER (47) ... ... ... 1981-2010 average 

11.6 _ ALEXISJ9 (52)

11.5 _ CHRIS BELL - NOT THE WEATHERMAN (4), KENTISH MAN (61)

11.4 _ 

11.3 _ 

11.2 _ DIAGONALREDLINE (10)

11.1 _ 

11.0 _ SNOWRAY (36)

10.9 _

10.8 _ IAPENNELL (40)

10.7 _ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (3)

10.6 _

10.5 _ ROBBIE GARRETT (21)

10.4 _ 

10.3 _ 

10.2 _ 

10.1 _ 

10.0 _

 9.9 _ RELATIVISTIC (18)

 9.4 _ BLAST FROM THE PAST (14)

 9.2 _ SIMSHADY (7)

 8.5 _ _ _ _ coldest (1698)

================================================================

EWP forecasts (mm)

 

200.0 _ LETTUCING GUTTED

151.8 ___ __ __ max 1766-present Hadley in 1773

142.4 ___ __ __ 1782 the only other Hadley May wetter than 1967.

133.7 ___ __ __ maximum 1910-present in 1967 (Hadley max in same period 140.7 also 1967)

120.0 __ STEVE B

100.0 __ RELATIVISTIC

 98.0 __ STEWFOX 

 97.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT

 95.0 __ ALEXISJ9

 87.0 __ PEGG24 

 86.0 __ DOCTOR32

 85.0 __ SIMSHADY, IAPENNELL

 83.0 __ BOBD29

 80.0 __ DAVID SNOW

 77.7 __ DR(S)NO

 76.0 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

 73.2 __ DKEANE3

 72.1 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 72.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (+1d)

 71.5 __ LET IT SNOW!

 71.0 __ JONBOY

 70.8 __ CHRIS BELL - NOT THE WEATHERMAN 

 70.0 __ JEFF C, DON

 69.0 __ STARGAZER

 68.8 __ WEATHER26

 68.0 __ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, SEASIDE 60 (+1d) consensus

 64.0 __ CHEESEPUFF SCOTT

 63.0 __ SYED2878

 61.1 ___ average 1981-2010 and also 1988-2017

 60.0 __ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY

 58.0 __ DAMI, REEF

 56.0 __ SINGULARITY

 55.0 __ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ

 54.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID

 51.0 __ NORRANCE

 50.1 __ POLAR GAEL

 50.0 __ J10

 48.0 __ GODBER.1

 45.0 __ B87

 42.0 __ MULZY

 41.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG

 39.0 __ LF1002

 35.0 __ DANIEL*

 34.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST

 32.0 __ ROGER J SMITH

 13.9 ____ __ __ minimum 1981-present and 1910-present also was in 1991 (Hadley min 13.7 also 1991)

 07.9 ____ __ __ minimum 1766-present, Hadley, in 1844

==========================================================

50 entries, consensus 68.0 mm. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Scoring for April EWP contest

The NCIC version is 86.5 mm. 

 

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. ____ 10.0 ___ 86.0 __ -0.5 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

T2. _____9.8 ___ 85.0 __ -1.5 ___ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER

T2. _____9.8 ___ 88.0 __ +1.5 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, SIMSHADY

T5  _____9.2 ___ 84.0 __ -2.5 ___ J10

T5  _____9.2 ___ 89.0 __ +2.5 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY

 7. _____ 8.8 ___ 90.0 __ +3.5 ___ DON

 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 82.0 __ -4.5 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 92.0 __ +5.5 ___ SEASIDE 60

T10 ____ 8.2 ___ 80.0 __ -6.5 ___  POLAR GAEL, STEWFOX

(12) ____ 7.7 ___ 79.0 __ -7.5 ___ Consensus 

T12 ____ 7.5 ___ 79.0 __ -7.5 ___ GODBER.1 (7.7 - 0.2)

T12 ____ 7.5 ___ 78.0 __ -8.5 ___ PEGG24, BORN FROM THE VOID

T12 ____ 7.5 ___ 95.0 __ +8.5 ___ STEVEB, JONBOY, DAVEHSUG

T18 ____ 6.4 ___ 77.0 __ -9.5 ___ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY

22. _____ 5.6 ___ 97.0__+10.5___ BOBD29

T23 ____ 5.4 ___ 75.0 __-11.5___ NORRANCE, DAVID SNOW

25. _____ 4.9 ___ 74.0 __-12.5___ LETTERBOXER

T26 ____ 4.7 ___100.0__+13.5___ LET IT SNOW!, RELATIVISTIC

28 _____ 4.0 ___ 70.5 __-16.0 ___ CHRIS BELL-NOT THE WEATHERMAN

29 _____ 3.8 ___ 70.0 __-16.5 ___ THE PIT

T30 ____ 3.6 ___ 72.6 __-13.9 ___ DKEANE3 (4.2 - 0.6)

T30 ____ 3.6 ___ 68.0 __-18.5 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

T30 ____ 3.4 ___105.0__+18.5___ DANIEL* 

T33 ____ 3.1 ___ 62.0 __-24.5___ JEFF C, DOCTOR32

(35) ____ 2.6 ___ 61.6 __-24.9___ average 1981-2010

T35 ____ 2.7 ___ 61.0 __-25.5___ STARGAZER

T35 ____ 2.7 ___112.0__+25.5___ ROGER J SMITH

(37) ____ 2.4 ___ 60.0 __-26.5___ average 1988-2017

37. _____ 2.2 ___115.0__+28.5___ SYED2878

38. _____ 2.0 ___ 56.0 __-30.5___ RADIATING DENDRITE

T39 _____1.8 ___ 55.0 __-31.5___ DAMI, MULZY, REEF

42. _____ 1.1 ___125.0__+38.5___ ED STONE

43, _____ 0.9 ___ 48.0 __-38.5___ WEATHER26

44. _____ 0.7 ___ 44.0 __-42.5___ STATIONARY FRONT

45. _____ 0.5 ___ 28.0 __-58.5___ VIZZY2004

46. _____ 0.2 ___189.0__+102.5__ ALEXISJ9

47. _____ 0.0 ___ 200.0__+113.5__ LETTUCING GUTTED

==============================================================

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Apr 2018)

Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec __Jan __Feb __Mar __Apr___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ JONBOY ___________________9.2 __ 7.8 __ 6.4 __ 9.6 __ 7.5 ___ 40.5 ____ _ 01

_02 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __ 9.4 __ 4.0 __ 8.9 __ 8.2 ___ 37.5 ____ _ 04

_03 ___ SINGULARITY ______________ 5.2 __ 7.2 __ 9.8 __ 7.7 __ 6.4 ___ 36.3 ____ _ 02

_04 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __ 8.2 __ 3.5 __ 8.8 __ 7.5 ___ 35.4 ____ _ 06

_05 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __ 8.4 __ 0.4 __ 7.2 __ 9.8 ___ 34.0 ____ _ 13

_06 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________ 4.6 __ 9.4 __ 8.6 __ 2.6 __ 8.2 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 12

_07 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 6.4 __ 9.8 __ 3.5 __ 5.7 __ 7.5 ___ 32.9 ____ _ 11

_08 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __ 7.6 __ 5.2 __ 9.1 __ 3.6 ___ 32.7 ____ _ 05

T-09___ DR (S) NO __________________ 9.8 __ 8.8 __ 1.2 __ 6.2 __ 6.4 ___ 32.4 ____ _ 09 

T-09___ DON _______________________1.8 __ 6.1 __ 7.4 __ 8.3 __ 8.8 ___ 32.4 ____ _T-16

T-11___ NORRANCE _________________7.0 __ 2.2 __ 8.4 __ 9.3 __ 5.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ 07

T-11___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __ 4.5 __ 4.8 __ 8.8 __ 8.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ 15

_13 ___  J10 ________________________4.4 __ 7.6 __ 0.7 __ 8.3 __ 9.2 __ 30.2 ____ _ 20

_14 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __ 3.3 __ 9.8 __10.0__ 3.6 ___ 30.1 ____ _ 08

_15 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __ 9.0 __ 8.9 __ 2.6 __ 0.5 ___ 30.0 ____ _ 03 

(16) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __ 6.3 __ 5.0 __ 5.7__ 7.7 ___ 29.9 ____ _ (20)

_16 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_10.0 __6.8 __ 2.6 __ 6.4 __ 4.0 ___ 29.8 ____ _ 10

_17 ___ PEGG24 ____________________8.0 __ 5.9 __ 0.7 __ 6.2 __ 7.5 ___ 28.3 ____ _ 22

_18 ___ BOBD29 ____________________3.2 __ 7.0 __ 6.5 __ 5.9 __ 5.6 ___ 28.2 ____ _ 19

(19) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __ 7.0 __ 5.1 __ 5.0 __ 2.6 ___ 27.3 ____ _ (13)

_19 ___ GODBER.1 __________________ 2.4 __ 7.4 __ 5.5 __ 3.5 __ 7.5 ___ 26.3 ____ _ 27

(20)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __ 8.3 __3.9 __ 3.4 __ 2.4 ___ 25.9 ____ _ (18)

_20 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 __10.0__ 3.8 __ 5.0 __ 2.2 ___ 25.8 ____ _ T-16

_21 ___ DAVID SNOW________________ 2.2 __ 3.3 __ 8.6 __ 5.7 __ 5.4 ___ 25.2 ____ _ 25

_22 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __ 8.6 __ 6.7 __ 0.9 __ 1.8 ___ 25.0 ____ _ 18

_23 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ____________4.4 __ 1.0 __ 8.1 __ 1.6 __ 9.8 ___ 24.9 ____ _T-39

_24 ___ MAPANTZ ___________________5.2 __ 6.8 __ 1.9 __ 4.3 __ 6.4 ___ 24.6 ____ _ 31

_25 ___ CHRIS. R ___________________ 6.2 __ 0.6 __ 9.3 __ 7.9 __ ---- ___ 24.0 ____ _ 14

_26 ___ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 8.4 __ 2.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.2 __ 4.7 ___ 23.9 ____ _ 26

_27 ___ DAVEHSUG __________________1.0 __ 1.2 __ 9.1 __ 4.8 __ 7.5 ___ 23.6 ____ _ 35

_28 ___ STARGAZER ________________ 1.4 __ 9.4 __ 2.4 __ 7.1 __ 2.7 ___ 23.0 ____ _ 23

_29 ___ REEF ______________________ 9.0 __ 5.3 __ 2.8 __ 3.8 __ 1.8 ___ 22.7 ____ _ 21

_30 ___ ROGER J SMITH _____________ 0.2 __ 1.8 __ 8.1 __ 9.8 __ 2.7 ___ 22.6 ____ _ 24

_31 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ________---- __ ---- __ 3.5 __ 8.8 __10.0 ___ 22.3 ____ _ 46

_32 ___ DANIEL* ____________________ 3.8 __ 5.9 __ 4.7 __ 4.3 __ 3.4 ___ 22.1 ____ _T-28

_33 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ___________0.6 __ 3.3 __ 5.9 __ 2.6 __ 9.2 ___ 21.6 ____ _T-44

T-34 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________ 1.6 __ 3.9 __ 6.4 __ 5.0 __ 3.1 ___ 20.0 ____ _ 33

T-34 ___ LET IT SNOW ! _______________---- __ ---- __ 8.8 __ 6.5 __ 4.7 ___ 20.0 ____ _ 38

_36 ___ THE_PIT ____________________ 6.0 __ 1.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.4 __ 3.8 ___ 19.8 ____ _ 36

_37 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________ 2.0 __ 2.4 __ 8.7 __ 4.5 __ 2.0 ___ 19.6 ____ _ 32

T-38 __ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __ 4.1 __ 1.1 __ 3.3 __ 3.1 ___ 19.4 ____ _ 34

T-38 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________ ---- __ 4.7 __ 4.3 __ 9.5 __ 0.9 ___ 19.4 ____ _ 30

_40 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER ____3.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.6 __ 3.3 __ 9.8 ___ 19.1 ____ _ 50

_41 ___ TIMMYTOUR _________________9.4 __ 0.2 __ 7.4 __ 1.7 __ ---- ___ 18.7 ____ _T-28

_42 ___ DAMI _______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 __ 0.9 __ 5.7 __ 1.8 ___ 17.7 ____ _ 37

_43 ___ STATIONARY FRONT __________ 1.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.4 __ 2.6 __ 0.7 ___ 15.8 ____ _T-39

_44 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE __________ ---- __ ---- __ 2.1 __ 6.9 __ 6.4 ___ 15.4 ____ _ 51

_45 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________ ---- __ ---- __ 7.4 __ 7.4 __ ---- ___ 14.8 ____ _ 41

_46 ___ ED STONE ___________________4.4 __ 1.6 __ 5.3 __ 1.2 __ 1.1 ___ 13.6 ____ _ 43

_47 ___ FOZFOSTER _________________ ---- __ 5.3 __ 4.3 __ 3.8 __ ---- ___ 13.4 ____ _ 42

_48 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________ ---- __ 2.4 __10.0__ ---- __ ---- ___ 12.4 ____ _T-44

_49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __ 5.5 __ 1.9 __ ---- __ 0.2 ___ 10.4 ____ _ 47

_50 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 9.6 ____ _ 48

_51 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________---- __ ---- __ 9.5 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 9.5 ____ _ 49

_52 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE _________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.7 __ 8.6 ____ 9.3 ____ _ 71

_53 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 8.6 ____ _ 52

_54 ___ LETTERBOXER _______________---- __ ---- __ 3.6 __ ---- __ 4.9 ____ 8.5 ____ _ 66

T55 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __ 4.7 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 7.7 ____ _T-53

T55 ___ CORAM ______________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 7.7 __ ---- ____ 7.7 ____ _T-53

_57 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________ 7.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 7.6 ____ _ 55

T58 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ________0.8 __ 0.0 __ 3.5 __ 2.6 __ ---- ____ 6.9 ____ _T-56

T58 ___ RICEY076 ____________________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 6.9 __ ---- ____ 6.9 ____ _T-56

T60___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.5 __ ---- ____ 6.3 ____ _T-58

T60 ___ IAPENNELL ___________________---- __ 6.3 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 6.3 ____ _T-58

_62 ___ JAMES M _____________________---- __ ---- __ 5.9 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.9 ____ _ 60

_63 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __ 2.8 __ 2.3 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.1 ____ _ 61

T64 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.0 ____ _T-62

T64 ___ BACKTRACK__________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 __ ---- ____ 5.0 ____ _T-62

_66 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS _________---- __ ---- __ 4.5 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 4.5 ____ _ 64

_67 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM ___ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 4.3 __ ---- ____ 4.3 ____ _ 65

_68 ___ MARK NEAL __________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.9 __ ---- ____ 2.9 ____ _ 67

_69 ___ MATT TARRANT _______________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.8 __ ---- ____ 2.8 ____ _ 68

_70 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 ____ _ 69

_71 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __ ---- __ 1.2 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1.2 ____ _ 70

T72 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __ ---- __ ----- __ ----__ ---- ____ 0.4 ____ _T-72

T72 ___ COLDEST WINTER ____________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.4 __ ---- ____ 0.4 ____ _T-72

T74 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 _____---- __ ---- __ 0.2 __ ----__ ---- ____ 0.2 ____ _T-74

T74 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 0.0 ____ 0.2 ____ _T-74

_76 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.0 __ ---- ____ 0.0 ____ _ 76

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Once again the Hadley EWP value for April is a bit higher than the NCIC version. The difference this month was 91.5 mm vs 86.5 mm. 

I can show the comparative scoring that would take place in the contest if we used Hadley rather than NCIC. This will just look at the regular participants who have either four or five months, and with the caveat that the matter was discussed in February so that forecasts made in March and April may reflect the fact that the contest standard would be a lower average than the alternative. In any case, the first set of scoring already posted is the official version, this is the April alternative scoring based on Hadley, and once I finish working out the different scoring in earlier months, I will post an alternative annual scoring table. From then on, I can post updates to both systems. 

APRIL scoring based on Hadley EWP 91.5 mm

===========================================

 

Rank _ Hadley score _ Contest Score _ Forecast _ Errors (Had, NCIC) __ Forecaster

 1. _____ 10.0 __________8.4 _________ 92.0 __ +0.5 _ +5.5 ________ SEASIDE 60

 2. ______ 9.8 __________8.8 _________ 90.0 __ --1.5 _ +3.5 ________ DON

 3. ______ 9.6 __________9.2 _________ 89.0 __ --2.5 _ +2.5 ________ WEATHER-HISTORY

T 4______ 9.4 __________9.8 _________ 88.0 __ --3.5 _ +1.5 ________ VIRTUALSPHERE, SIMSHADY

T 4______ 9.4 __________7.5 _________ 95.0 __ +3.5 _ +8.5 ________ STEVEB, JONBOY, DAVEHSUG

T 9 ______8.4 _________ 10.0 _________86.0 __ --5.5 _ --0.5 ________ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

T 9 ______8.4 __________ 5.6 _________97.0 __ +5.5 _+10.5________ BOBD29

11. ______ 8.0 __________ 9.8 _________85.0 __ +6.5 _ --1.5 ________ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER

12. ______ 7.7 __________ 9.2 ________ 84.0 __ --7.5 _ --2.5 ________ J10

T13 ______7.5 __________ 4.7 ________100.0 __ +8.5 _ +13.5 _______ LET IT SNOW!, RELATIVISTIC

15. ______ 7.1 __________ 8.6 _________82.0 __ --9.5 _ --4.5 ________ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

T16 ______6.9 __________ 8.2 _________80.0 __--11.5 _ --6.5 ________ POLAR GAEL, STEWFOX

(18) _____ 6.5 __________ 7.7 _________ 79.0 __--12.5 _--7.5 ________ Consensus 

T18 _____ 6.3 __________ 7.5 _________ 79.0 __--12.5 _ --7.5 ________ GODBER.1 (6.5 - 0.2)

T18 _____ 6.3 __________ 7.5 _________ 78.0 __--13.5 _ --8.5 ________ PEGG24, BORN FROM THE VOID

T21 _____ 5.8 __________ 3.4 _________105.0 __+13.5 _+18.5 _______ DANIEL* 

T22 _____ 5.6 __________ 6.4 _________  77.0 __--14.5 _ --9.5 _______ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY

T26 _____ 4.7 __________ 5.4 __________75.0 __--16.5 _--11.5 _______ NORRANCE, DAVID SNOW

28. ______4.3 ___________4.9 _________ 74.0 __--17.5 _--12.5 _______ LETTERBOXER

29. ______3.9 ___________ 2.7 _________112.0__+20.5 _+25.5 _______ ROGER J SMITH

30. ______3.7 ___________ 4.0 __________ 70.5__--21.0 _--16.0 ______ CHRIS BELL-NOT THE WEATHERMAN

31. ______3.5 ___________ 3.6 __________ 72.6 __--18.9 _--13.9 ______DKEANE3 (4.1 - 0.6)

32 ______ 3.4 ___________ 3.8 __________ 70.0__--21.5 _--16.5 ______ THE PIT

T33 _____ 3.2 ___________ 3.6 __________ 68.0__--23.5 _--18.5 ______ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

T33 _____ 3.2 ___________ 2.2 _________ 115.0__+23.5 _+28.5 _______SYED2878

T35 _____ 2.7 ___________ 2.9 __________ 62.0 __-29.5_-24.5 _______ JEFF C, DOCTOR32

(36) _____ 2.3 ___________ 2.7 __________ 61.6 __-29.9_-24.9 _______ average 1981-2010

37 ______ 2.3 ___________ 2.7 __________ 61.0 __-30.5_-25.5 ________STARGAZER

(38) _____ 2.2 ___________ 2.4 __________ 60.0 __-31.5_-26.5 _______ average 1988-2017

38. ______2.1 ___________ 1.1 __________125.0__+33.5_+38.5 _______ED STONE

39. ______1.8 ___________ 2.0 ___________56.0 __-35.5_-30.5 _______ RADIATING DENDRITE

T40 _____ 1.6 ___________ 1.8 __________ 55.0 __-36.5_-31.5 _______ DAMI, MULZY, REEF

43, ______ 0.9 ___________ 0.9 __________ 48.0 __-43.5_-38.5 _______ WEATHER26

44. ______ 0.7 ___________ 0.7 __________ 44.0 __-47.5_-42.5 _______ STATIONARY FRONT

45. ______ 0.5 ___________ 0.5 __________ 28.0 __-63.5_-58.5 _______ VIZZY2004

46. ______ 0.2 ___________ 0.2 __________189.0__+97.5_+102.5______ ALEXISJ9

47. ______ 0.0 ___________ 0.0 __________200.0__+108.5_+113.5_____ LETTUCING GUTTED

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Alternative scoring using Hadley EWP

We started out the contest using Hadley EWP because I didn't know there was another version. But when the January results were very late coming in, I found an alternative set (NCIC of UKMO) and switched the scoring to that set which tends to run about 5% drier on average. It has made some difference to scoring each month and this alternative table will be maintained as a second look at scoring. If you look back through this thread, you'll find that the December and January scoring tables are from the Hadley scoring (I got to January because they had posted daily values several days before the monthly total, and I decided to go with the earlier confirmed monthly of NCIC a day or two after that), so the annual table was edited around mid-February to show the NCIC scoring for Dec-Jan. Since then, I have only posted NCIC scoring so the February and March Hadley scores appear here for the first time. I've just posted April Hadley-based scoring for comparison to give an idea of how much change is possible, basically anyone who was in the range of 10-20 mm too high did much better on Hadley because they moved ahead of clusters of lower predictions which then lost small amounts of their points. This is more or less what happens each month when comparing. As the contest official scoring is NCIC, this table is to be considered for informational purposes only, but if you prefer to compare your forecasts using this table, you have the data laid out here. 

 

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Apr 2018) -- Hadley scoring

 

Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec __Jan __Feb __Mar __Apr___TOTALS _____ NCIC rank

_____________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC

_01 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 __ 7.4 __ 6.7 __10.0__ 9.4 ___ 42.3 _ 40.5 ____ _ 01

_02 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 __ 8.2 __ 3.5 __ 8.8 __ 9.4 ___ 37.3 _ 35.4 ____ _ 04

_03 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 __ 9.6 __ 4.0 __ 8.9 __ 6.9 ___ 36.4 _ 37.5 ____ _ 02

_04 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 __ 7.0 __ 9.1 __ 7.7 __ 5.6 ___ 34.6 _ 36.3 ____ _ 03

_05 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 __ 4.3 __ 5.2 __ 8.8 __10.0 ___34.1 _ 32.3 ____ _ T-11

_06___ DON ______________________1.8 __ 5.7 __ 8.4 __ 8.3 __ 9.8 ___ 34.0 _ 32.4 ____ _T-09

_07 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 __ 7.8 __ 5.6 __ 9.1 __ 3.5 ___ 33.2 _ 32.7 ____ _ 08

_08 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 __ 2.2 __ 9.6 __ 9.3 __ 4.7 ___ 32.8 _ 32.3 ____ _T-11

_09 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________ 4.6 __ 9.0 __ 9.5 __ 2.6 __ 6.9 ___ 32.6 _ 33.4 ____ _ 06

_10 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 __ 7.6 __ 0.4 __ 7.2 __ 9.4 ___ 32.4 _ 34.0 ____ _ 05

_11 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 __ 9.8 __ 3.5 __ 5.7 __ 6.3 ___ 31.7 _ 32.9 ____ _ 07

_12 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 __ 8.4 __ 1.2 __ 6.2 __ 5.6 ___ 31.0 _ 32.4 ____ _T-09 

T13 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 __ 8.6 __ 8.8 __ 2.6 __ 0.5 ___ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ _ 15 

T13 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __ 6.6 __ 5.0 __ 5.9 __ 8.4 ___ 29.1 _ 28.2 ____ _ 18

_15 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 __6.8 __ 2.6 __ 6.4 __ 3.7 ___ 28.9 _ 29.8 ____ _ 16

_16 ___  J10 ______________________ 4.4 __ 7.6 __ 0.7 __ 8.3 __ 7.7 ___ 28.7 _ 30.2 ____ _ 13

(T16) ___ consensus _______________ 5.2 __ 5.9 __ 5.4 __ 5.7__ 6.5 ___ 28.7 _ 29.9 ____ _ (16)

_17 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 __ 3.3 __ 9.1 __ 9.6 __ 3.2 ___ 28.6 _ 30.1 ____ _ 14

_18 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 __ 5.1 __ 0.7 __ 6.2 __ 6.3 ___ 27.5 _ 28.3 ____ _ 17

_19 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 __ 2.2 __ 8.4 __ 1.2 __ 7.5 ___ 27.3 _ 23.9 ____ _ 26

(20) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 __ 6.6 __ 5.5 __ 5.0 __ 2.3 ___ 27.0 _ 27.3 ____ _ (19)

_20 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8 __10.0__ 3.8 __ 5.0 __ 3.2 ___ 26.8 _ 25.8 ____ _ 20

_21 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __ 1.2 __10.0 __ 4.8 __ 9.4 ___ 26.4 _ 23.6 ____ _ 27

(22)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 __ 8.3 __ 3.9 __ 3.4 __ 2.2 ___ 25.5 _ 25.9 ____ _ (20)

_22 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 __ 8.8 __ 7.1 __ 0.9 __ 1.6 ___ 25.4 _ 25.0 ____ _ 22

_23 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 __ 7.2 __ 5.9 __ 3.5 __ 6.3 ___ 25.3 _ 26.3 ____ _ 19

_24 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __ 3.3 __ 9.5 __ 5.7 __ 4.7 ___ 25.2 _ 25.2 ____ _ 21

_25 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __ 0.6 __ 9.6 __ 7.9 __ ---- ___ 24.3 _ 24.0 ____ _ 25

_26 ___ DANIEL* ___________________ 3.8 __ 5.1 __ 4.9 __ 4.3 __ 5.8 ___ 23.9 _ 22.1 ____ _ 32

T27 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 __ 1.2 __ 6.7 __ 1.6 __ 9.4 ___ 23.3 _ 24.9 ____ _ 23

T27 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 __ 6.3 __ 1.9 __ 4.3 __ 5.6 ___ 23.3 _ 24.6 ____ _ 24

_29 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __ 9.6 __ 2.4 __ 7.1 __ 2.3 ___ 22.8 _ 23.0 ____ _ 28

_30 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 __ 1.8 __ 6.7 __ 9.8 __ 3.9 ___ 22.4 _ 22.6 ____ _ 30

_31 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 __ 5.5 __ 2.8 __ 3.8 __ 1.6 ___ 22.3 _ 22.7 ____ _ 29

_32 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________ 0.6 __ 3.3 __ 6.1 __ 2.6 __ 9.6 ___ 22.2 _ 21.6 ____ _33

_33 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________ ---- __ ---- __ 7.9 __ 6.5 __ 7.5 ___ 21.9 _ 20.0 ____ _ T-34

_34 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER _______---- __ ---- __ 3.5 __ 8.8 __ 8.4 ___ 20.7 _ 22.3 ____ _ 31

_35 ___ THE_PIT ___________________ 6.0 __ 1.0 __ 8.4 __ 1.4 __ 3.4 ___ 20.2 _ 19.8 ____ _ 36

_36 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 __ 3.9 __ 6.7 __ 5.0 __ 2.7 ___ 19.9 _ 20.0 ____ _ T-34

T37 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______ 2.0 __ 2.4 __ 8.9 __ 4.5 __ 1.8 ___ 19.6 _ 19.6 ____ _ 37

T37 ___ JEFF C _____________________7.6 __ 4.9 __ 1.1 __ 3.3 __ 2.7 ___ 19.6 _ 19.4 ____ _T-38

_39  ___ WEATHER 26 _______________ ---- __ 4.5 __ 4.5 __ 9.5 __ 0.9 ___ 19.4 _ 19.4 ____ _T-38

_40 ___ TIMMYTOUR _______________10.0 __ 0.2 __ 6.5 __ 1.7 __ ---- ___ 18.4 _ 18.7 ____ _ 41

_41 ___ DAMI ______________________ 5.4 __ 3.9 __ 0.9 __ 5.7 __ 1.6 ___ 17.5 _ 17.7 ____ _ 42

_42 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER____3.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.6 __ 3.3 __ 8.0 ___ 17.3 _ 19.1 ____ _ 40

_43 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________---- __ ---- __ 8.4 __ 7.4 __ ---- ___ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ _ 45

_44 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __ 4.7 __ 6.5 __ 2.6 __ 0.7 ___ 15.7 _ 15.8 ____ _ 43

_45 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE _________ ---- __ ---- __ 2.1 __ 6.9 __ 5.6 ___ 14.6 _ 15.4 ____ _ 44

_46 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- __ 5.5 __ 4.5 __ 3.8 __ ---- ___ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ _ 47

_47 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 __ 1.6 __ 4.2 __ 1.2 __ 2.1 ___ 13.5 _ 13.6 ____ _ 46

_48 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- __ 2.4 __10.0__ ---- __ ---- ___ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ _ 48

_49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __ 6.1 __ 1.9 __ ---- __ 0.2 ___ 11.0 _ 10.4 ____ _ 49

_50 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 9.8 __ 9.6 ____ _ 50

_51 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ _ 57

_52 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __ ---- __ 8.9 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ _ 51

_53 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS  8.2 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 8.2 __ 8.6 ____ _ 53

_54 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __ ---- __ 3.6 __ ---- __ 4.3 ____ 7.9 __8.5 ____ _ 54

_55 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 7.7 __ ---- ____ 7.7 __ 7.7 ____ _T-55

_56 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.5 __ 7.1 ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ _ 52

_57 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __ 4.5 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 7.5 __ 7.7 ____ _T-55

T58 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______0.8 __ 0.0 __ 3.5 __ 2.6 __ ---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _T-58

T58 ___ RICEY076 ___________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 6.9 __ ---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _T-58

_60___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.4 __ ---- ____ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ _T-60

_61 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- __ 5.9 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.9 __ 6.3 ____ _T-60

_62 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- __ ---- __ 5.9 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ _ 62

_63 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- __ ---- __ 5.4 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.4 __ 5.0 ____ _T-64

_64 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- __ 2.8 __ 2.3 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _ 63

_65 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 5.0 __ ---- ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 ____ _T-64

_66 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- __ ---- __ 4.7 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____ _ 66

_67 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 4.3 __ ---- ____ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____ _ 67

_68 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.9 __ ---- ____ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____ _ 68

_69 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 2.8 __ ---- ____ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____ _ 69

_70 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 __ 2.6 ____ _ 70

_71 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- __ ---- __ 1.2 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1.2 __ 1.2 ____ _ 71

_72 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.7 __ 0.0 ____ 0.7 __ 0.2 ____ _T-74

_73 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 __ ---- __ ----- __ ----__ ---- ____ 0.4 __ 0.4 ____ _T-72

T74 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.2 __ ---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-72

T74 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __ ---- __ 0.2 __ ----__ ---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-74

_76 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 0.0 __ ---- ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ _ 76

____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of entries for CET forecast contest June 2018

________________________________________________

 

20.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (5)

18.2 __ _ _ _ warmest June 1846

17.7 __ ROGER J SMITH (49)

17.4 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (22)

17.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT (28)

16.8 __ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN (20), DOCTOR32 (54), DUNCAN McALISTER (60*)

16.7 __ TJM14 (10)

16.6 __ BOBD29 (16), ED STONE (35)

16.5 __ POLAR GAEL (12), STEVE B (37), THE PIT (48)

16.4 __ ALEXISJ9 (30)

16.3 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (15), BORN FROM THE VOID (38), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (58*)

16.2 __ LET IT SNOW! (1), PEGG24 (29), DAVID SNOW (51), SEASIDE 60 (61*)

16.1 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (17), NORRANCE (45), MAN WITH BEARD (52)

16.0 __ DANCERWITHWINGS (14), MARK BAYLEY (34), GAEL_FORCE (44), TIMMYTOUR (59*)

15.9 __ SINGULARITY (50), DAMIANSLAW (53), DON (55)

15.8 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (6), B87 (21), THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (26), COLDEST WINTER (39)

__________ DANIEL* (62*) ___ consensus ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

15.7 __ REEF (46), METALTRON (57)

15.6 __ MP-R (4), CHEESEPUFFSCOTT (11), STEWFOX (24)

15.5 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (18), DR(S)NO (23), J10 (32), MULZY (47), GODBER.1 (56), MAPANTZ (64**)

15.4 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE (41)

15.3 __ STARGAZER (27)

15.2 __ STATIONARY FRONT (13), SUNDOG (40)

15.1 __ SNOWRAY (19), WEATHER-HISTORY (42)

15.0 __ DKEANE3 (31)

14.9 __ DAMI (8), SUMMER SUN (25)

14.8 __ JEFF C (3)

14.7 __ WEATHER26 (7)

14.6 __ JONBOY (43) ... ... ... average for 1988-2017

14.5 __ DIAGONALREDLINE (9), SYED2878 (33), RELATIVISTIC (36)

____ ____ DAVEHSUG (63**) ... ... ... average for 1981-2010

14.1 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (2)

11.5 __ _ _ _ coldest June 1675

========================================================

Table of entries for June 2018 EWP contest

______________________________________

200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

157.8 __ _ _ _ wettest (2012)

 80.0 __ RELATIVISTIC, JONBOY, GODBER.1

 75.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY

 73.0 __ ED STONE, NORRANCE

 71.0 __ DAVEHSUG (+2d)

 70.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE, BORN FROM THE VOID

 69.9 __ DKEANE3

 67.5 __ COLDEST WINTER

 67.0 __ DR(S)NO

 66.2 __ _ _ _ average 1988-2017

 65.0 __ DAMI, ALEXISJ9, REEF

 64.5 __ SYED2878

 64.1 __ _ _ _ average 1981-2010

 61.0 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (+1d)

 60.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT, J10, MULZY, THE PIT

 59.0 __ MAPANTZ (+2d)

 58.0 __ JEFF C, PEGG-24, STEVE B, DOCTOR32, ... ... consensus ...

 57.4 __ ROGER J SMITH

 56.0 __ SINGULARITY

 53.0 __ TJM14

 52.0 __ SEASIDE 60 (+1d)

 51.0 __ STARGAZER, TIMMYTOUR (+1d)

 50.0 __ DON

 49.0 __ DAVID SNOW

 46.2 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS

 46.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT

 45.6 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

 45.0 __ MP-R

 44.0 __ WEATHER26, STEWFOX

 42.0 __ POLAR GAEL

 40.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 39.0 __ BOBD29

 37.0 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

 34.5 __ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

 27.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 23.0 __ LET IT SNOW!

 22.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE

 18.0 __ B87

 04.0 __ _ _ _ driest June 1925

____________________________________

64 entries in CET and 50 in EWP

 

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
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Scoring for May EWP contest

The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. 

 

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1

 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10

 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL

 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE

 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87

 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID

T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ

10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY

11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY

T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG

T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF

16. _____7.0 ___ 39.0 __ -9.8 ___ LF1002

T17 ____ 6.8 ___ 60.0 __+11.2___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY

(T19)___ 6.4 ___ 61.1 __+12.3___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017

19.  ____ 6.3 ___ 35.0 __-13.8 ___ DANIEL*

20. _____6.1 ___ 63.0 __+14.2 ___ SYED2878

21. _____5.9 ___ 34.0 __-14.8 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST

22. _____5.7 ___ 64.0 __+15.2 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

23. _____5.5 ___ 32.0 __-16.8 ___ ROGER J SMITH

T24 ____ 5.3 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 

26. _____ 5.1 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.3 - 0.2)

27. _____ 4.7 ___ 68.8 __+20.0 ___ WEATHER26

28. _____ 4.5 ___ 69.0 __+20.2 ___ STARGAZER

T29 _____4.3 ___ 70.0 __+21.2 ___ JEFF C, DON

31. _____ 3.9 ___ 70.8 __+22.0 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.0 __+22.2 ___ JONBOY

33. _____ 3.5 ___ 71.5 __+22.7 ___ LET IT SNOW!

T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.0 __+23.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.2 - 0.2)

T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.1 __+23.3 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

36. _____ 2.8 ___ 73.2 __+24.4 ___ DKEANE3

37. _____ 2.6 ___ 76.0 __+27.2 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

38. _____ 2.4 ___ 77.7 __+28.9 ___ DR(S)NO

39. _____ 2.2 ___ 80.0 __+31.2 ___ DAVID SNOW

40. _____ 2.0 ___ 83.0 __+34.2 ___ BOBD29

T41 _____1.8 ___ 85.0 __+36.2 ___ SIMSHADY, IAPENNELL

43. _____ 1.4 ___ 86.0 __+37.2 ___ DOCTOR32

44. _____ 1.2 ___ 87.0 __+38.2 ___ PEGG24

45. _____ 1.0 ___ 95.0 __+46.2 ___ ALEXISJ9

46. _____ 0.8 ___ 97.0 __+48.2 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT

47. _____ 0.6 ___ 98.0 __+49.2 ___ STEWFOX

48. _____ 0.4 ___100.0__+51.2 ___ RELATIVISTIC

49. _____ 0.2 ___120.0__+71.2 ___ STEVE B

50. _____ 0.0 ___200.0__+151.2__ LETTUCING GUTTED

==============================================================

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018)

Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03

_02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01

_03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06

_04 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07

_05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11

_06 ___  J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13

_07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02

_08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11

_09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09

_10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19

_11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05

_12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04

_13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08

(14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16)

_14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 

(15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19)

_15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16

_16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24

_17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22

_18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14

(19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20)

_19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20

_20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27

_21 ___ BOBD29 ____________________3.2 __7.0 __6.5 __5.9 __5.6 __2.0 ___ 30.2 ____ _ 18

_22 ___ REEF ______________________ 9.0 __5.3 __2.8 __3.8 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 30.1 ____ _ 29

_23 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __9.0 __8.9 __2.6 __0.5 __---  ___ 30.0 ____ _ 15 

_24 ___ PEGG24 ____________________8.0 __5.9 __0.7 __6.2 __7.5 __1.2 ___ 29.5 ____ _ 17

_25 ___ THE_PIT ____________________6.0 __1.2 __7.4 __1.4 __3.8 __8.8 ___ 28.6 ____ _ 36

T26 ___ DANIEL* ____________________3.8 __5.9 __4.7 __4.3 __3.4 __6.3 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 32

T26 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________ 0.6 __3.3 __5.9 __2.6 __9.2 __6.8 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 33

_28 ___ ROGER J SMITH _____________0.2 __1.8 __8.1 __9.8 __2.7 __5.5 ___ 28.1 ____ _ 30

_29 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ____________4.4 __1.0 __8.1 __1.6 __9.8 __3.0 ___ 27.9 ____ _ 23

T30 ___ STARGAZER ________________ 1.4 __9.4 __2.4 __7.1 __2.7 __4.5 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 28

T30 ___ TIMMYTOUR ________________ 9.4 __0.2 __7.4 __1.7 __ ---- __8.8 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 41

T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________2.0 __2.4 __8.7 __4.5 __2.0 __7.8 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 37

T32 ___ DAVID SNOW________________ 2.2 __3.3 __8.6 __5.7 __5.4 __2.2 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 21

_34 ___ DAMI _______________________5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 25.1 ____ _ 42

_35 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ________---- __ ---- __3.5 __8.8 _10.0__2.6 ___ 24.9 ____ _ 31

_36 ___ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 8.4 __2.2 __7.4 __1.2 __4.7 __0.4 ___ 24.3 ____ _ 26

_37 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________ ---- __4.7 __4.3 __9.5 __0.9 __4.7 ___ 24.1 ____ _T-38

_38 ___ CHRIS. R ___________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.3 __7.9 __---- __---- ___ 24.0 ____ _ 25

_39 __ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __4.1 __1.1 __3.3 __3.1 __4.3 ___ 23.7 ____ _T-38

_40 ___ LET IT SNOW ! _______________---- __----__ 8.8 __6.5 __4.7 __3.5 ___ 23.5 ____ _T-34

_41 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE _________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __6.4 __6.8 ___ 22.2 ____ _ 44

_42 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________ 1.6 __3.9 __6.4 __5.0 __3.1 __1.4 ___ 21.4 ____ _T-34

_43 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.9 __6.4 __2.6 __0.7 __5.3 ___ 21.1 ____ _ 43

_44 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER ____3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __9.8 __ ----___ 19.1 ____ _ 40

_45 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________---- __---- __7.4 __7.4 __ ---- __---- ___ 14.8 ____ _ 45

_46 ___ ED STONE __________________ 4.4 __1.6 __5.3 __1.2 __1.1 __ --- ___ 13.6 ____ _ 46

_47 ___ FOZFOSTER _________________---- __5.3 __4.3 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.4 ____ _ 47

_48 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __5.9 ___ 12.8 ____ _T-58

_49 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________---- __2.4 _ 10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 ____ _ 48

_50 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __5.5 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 11.4 ____ _ 49

_51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.6 ____ _ 50

_52 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________---- __---- __9.5 __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.5 ____ _ 51

_53 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE _________---- __---- __---- __0.7 __ 8.6 __---- ___ 9.3 ____ _ 52

_54 ___ B87 ________________________  ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __9.2 ___ 9.2 ____ _ ---

_55 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 8.6 ____ _ 53

_56 ___ LETTERBOXER _______________---- __ ---- __3.6 __ ---- __4.9 __---- ___ 8.5 ____ _ 54

_57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __6.3 __---- __---- __ ---- __1.8 ___ 8.1 ____ _T-60

T58 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __4.7 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55

T58 ___ CORAM ______________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55

_60 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________ 7.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 7.6 ____ _ 57

_61 ___ LF1002 ______________________---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 7.0 ___ 7.0 ____ _ ---

_62 ___ RICEY076 ____________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.9 ____ _T-58

_63___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __---- __---- __0.5 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.3 ____ _T-60

_64 ___ JAMES M _____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.9 ____ _ 62

_65 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.7 ___ 5.7 ____ _ ---

_66 ___ TJM14 ______________________  ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.3 ___ 5.3 ____ _ ---

_67 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __ ---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.1 ____ _ 63

T68 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64

T68 ___ BACKTRACK__________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64

_70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS _________---- __---- __4.5 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 4.5 ____ _ 66

_71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM ___ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __ ---- __---- ___ 4.3 ____ _ 67

_72 ___ MARK NEAL __________________---- __---- __---- __2.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.9 ____ _ 68

_73 ___ MATT TARRANT _______________---- __---- __---- __2.8 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.8 ____ _ 69

_74 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 2.6 ____ _ 70

_75 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __---- __1.2 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 1.2 ____ _ 71

_76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ____________  ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __0.8 ___ 0.8 ____ _ ---

T77 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72

T77 ___ COLDEST WINTER ____________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72

T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 _____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74

T79 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.2 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74

_81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 0.0 ____ _ 76

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)  

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I can't seem to see myself in the main list?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I can't seem to see myself in the main list?

If you are looking at the previous post, sorry I neglected to add "EWP forecasts" to the title of part 2 of the table. Or, maybe you're looking at the list I created a few posts back that compares temperature and precip forecasts? That list only has comparisons if you enter precip which you haven't chosen to do, so if you look again you'll see that the temperature rankings have # symbols added for each non-precip forecaster not mentioned in that table but who would drop the CET rank by that number of # symbols in a list for CET only. I only did this comparison once a few months ago and you would have to check J10's tables to find out where you stand in the temperature contest. I know the contest tables (for CET only) are hard to open, if you can't open them maybe we can print out the latest version over here, at least for the top half of the table with the regulars. I will see if I can do that later today because I know it's difficult to open them (you have to save them and go through a few steps that I have in a PM from J10 -- it's not his fault, blame NW and their odd software.)

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Meanwhile I posted the CET scores from the excel file that I managed to open, over in the May thread. You can check there, SB you were in 24th place in that update. 

The Hadley EWP alternate figure has come in at 52.0 mm. That means (since the contest NCIC scores are based on 48.8 mm) most of the lower scores would be the same, as for the higher scores, this is the portion of the table that would be different, down to where it becomes identical with the previously posted EWP scores, and following that, the updated annual "Hadley EWP" scores (which are not contest official partly because some forecasters are probably going a bit lower knowing how NCIC is always a bit lower than Hadley, but if you want to know how Hadley is treating you, this is your place to find out...)

Hadley EWP scores for May (only those which are different from NCIC posted earlier, scores below 3.0 can be seen in that table, same here)

 

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 

 1. _____10.0 ___ 51.0 __ -1.0 ___ NORRANCE

 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.1 __ -1.9 ___ POLAR GAEL

T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 50.0 __ -2.0 ___ J10

T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 54.0 __ +2.0 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID

T5 _____ 9.2 ___ 55.0 __ +3.0 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ

 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 48.0 __ -4.0 ___ GODBER.1

 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 56.0 __ +4.0 ___ SINGULARITY

T10 ____ 8.2 ___ 58.0 __ +6.0___ DAMI, REEF

12. _____ 7.8 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87

T13 ____ 7.6 ___ 60.0 __ +8.0___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY

(T15)___ 7.3 ___ 61.1 __ +9.1___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017

15. _____ 7 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY

T16 ____ 7.0 ___ 41.0 __-11.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG

T16_____7.0 ___ 63.0 __+11.0 ___ SYED2878

19. _____6.3 ___ 64.0 __+12.0 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

20. _____6.1 ___ 39.0 __-15.0 ___ LF1002

T21 ____ 5.9 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 

23. _____ 5.7 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.9 - 0.2)

24. _____ 5.3 ___ 68.8 __+16.8 ___ WEATHER26

T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 35.0 __-17.0 ___ DANIEL*

T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 69.0 __+17.0 ___ STARGAZER

T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 34.0 __-18.0 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST

T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 70.0 __+18.0 ___ JEFF C, DON

30. _____ 4.1 ___ 70.8 __+18.8 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

31. _____ 3.9 ___ 71.0 __+19.0 ___ JONBOY

32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.5 __+19.5 ___ LET IT SNOW!

33. _____ 3.5 ___ 32.0 __-20.0 ___ ROGER J SMITH

34 _____ 3.3 ___ 72.0 __+20.0 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.5 - 0.2)

(scores 3.0 and below are same as previous table, errors reduced by 3.2)

 

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Apr 2018) -- Hadley scoring

Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTALS _____ NCIC rank

________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC

_01 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 __7.4 __6.7__10.0__9.4 __3.9 ___ 46.2 _ 44.2 ____ _ 02

_02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 __7.0 __9.1 __7.7 __5.6 __8.4 ___ 43.0 _ 44.3 ____ _ 01

_03 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 __2.2 __9.6 __9.3 __4.7__10.0___ 42.8 _ 41.7 ____ _ 05

_04 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________ 4.6 __9.0 __9.5 __2.6 __6.9 __9.8 ___ 42.4 _ 43.0 ____ _ 03

_05 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __6.3 __9.6 ___ 41.3 _ 41.9 ____ _ 04

_06 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 __4.3 __5.2 __8.8__10.0__5.7 ___ 39.8 _ 37.4 ____ _ 08

_07 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 __5.7 __8.4 __8.3 __9.8 __4.7 ___ 38.7 _ 36.7 ____ _ 09

_08 ___  J10 ______________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __7.7 __9.6 ___ 38.3 _ 40.0 ____ _ 06

_09 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __9.4 __0.2 ___ 37.5 _ 35.6 ____ _ 12

_10 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 __9.6 __4.0 __8.9 __6.9 __0.6 ___ 37.0 _ 38.1 ____ _ 07

_11 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 __7.8 __5.6 __9.1 __3.5 __2.8 ___ 36.0 _ 35.5 ____ _ 13

(12) ___ consensus ________________ 5.2 __5.9 __5.4 __5.7__6.5 __5.9 ___ 34.6 _ 35.2 ____ _ (14)

(12) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 __6.6 __5.5 __5.0 __2.3 __7.3 ___ 34.3 _ 33.7 ____ _ (15)

_12 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 __7.6 __0.4 __7.2 __9.4 __1.8 ___ 34.2 _ 35.8 ____ _ 11

_13 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 __7.2 __5.9 __3.5 __6.3 __8.6 ___ 33.9 _ 36.3 ____ _ 10

_14 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8__10.0__3.8__5.0 __3.2 __7.0 ___ 33.8 _ 31.9 ____ _ 19

T15 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __1.2__10.0__4.8 __9.4 __7.0 ___ 33.4 _ 31.4 ____ _ 20

T15 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 __8.4 __1.2 __6.2 __5.6 __2.4 ___ 33.4 _ 34.8 ____ _ 14 

_17 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __6.6 __5.0 __5.9 __8.4 __2.0 ___ 33.1 _ 30.2 ____ _ 21

_18 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 __6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __3.7__4.1 ___ 33.0 _ 33.7 ____ _ 15

(19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.2 __7.3 ___ 32.8 _ 32.3 ____ _ (19)

_19 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 __8.8 __7.1 __0.9 __1.6 __7.2 ___ 32.6 _ 33.2 ____ _ 17

_20 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 __3.3 __9.1 __9.6 __3.2 __3.0 ___ 31.6 _ 33.1 ____ _ 18

_21 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 __6.3 __1.9 __4.3 __5.6 __9.2 ___ 31.5 _ 33.4 ____ _ 16

_22 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 __5.5 __2.8 __3.8 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 30.5 _ 30.1 ____ _ 22

_23 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 __3.3 __6.1 __2.6 __9.6 __7.6 ___ 29.8 _ 28.4 ____ _T26

_24 ___ THE_PIT ___________________ 6.0 __1.0 __8.4 __1.4 __3.4 __9.2 ___ 29.2 _ 28.6 ____ _ 25

_25 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 __8.6 __8.8 __2.6 __0.5 __---- ___ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ _ 23

_26 ___ DANIEL* ___________________ 3.8 __5.1 __4.9 __4.3 __5.8 __5.1 ___ 29.0 _ 28.4 ____ _T26

_27 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 __5.1 __0.7 __6.2 __6.3 __1.2 ___ 28.7 _ 29.5 ____ _ 24

_28 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __9.6 __2.4 __7.1 __2.3 __5.1 ___ 27.9 _ 27.5 ____ _T30

_29 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 __2.2 __8.4 __1.2 __7.5 __0.4 ___ 27.7 _ 24.3 ____ _ 36

_30 ___ TIMMYTOUR _______________10.0 __0.2 __6.5 __1.7 __---- __9.2 ___ 27.6 _ 27.5 ____ _T-30

_31 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __3.3 __9.5 __5.7 __4.7 __2.2 ___ 27.4 _ 27.4 ____ _T32

T32 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 __1.2 __6.7 __1.6 __9.4 __3.3 ___ 26.6 _ 27.9 ____ _ 29

T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______ 2.0 __2.4 __8.9 __4.5 __1.8 __7.0 ___ 26.6 _ 27.4 ____ _T-32

_34 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 __1.8 __6.7 __9.8 __3.9 __3.5 ___ 25.9 _ 28.1 ____ _ 28

_35 ___ DAMI ______________________ 5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 25.7 _ 25.1 ____ _ 34

_36 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- __---- __7.9 __6.5 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 25.6 _ 23.5 ____ _ 40

_37  ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- __4.5 __4.5 __9.5 __0.9 __5.3 ___ 24.7 _ 24.1 ____ _ 37

T38 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.6 __7.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 24.3 _ 24.0 ____ _ 38

T38 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 __4.9 __1.1 __3.3 __2.7 __4.7 ___ 24.3 _ 23.7 ____ _ 39

_40 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- __---- __3.5 __8.8 __8.4 __2.6 ___ 23.3 _ 24.9 ____ _ 35

_45 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __5.6 __7.6 ___ 22.2 _ 22.2 ____ _ 41

_41 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 __3.9 __6.7 __5.0 __2.7 __1.4 ___ 21.3 _ 21.4 ____ _ 42

_42 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __8.0 __---- ___ 17.3 _ 19.1 ____ _ 44

_43 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- __---- __8.4 __7.4 __---- __---- ___ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ _ 45

_44 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.7 __6.5 __2.6 __0.7 __5.9 ___ 21.6 _ 21.1 ____ _ 43

_46 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- __5.5 __4.5 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ _ 47

_47 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 __1.6 __4.2 __1.2 __2.1 __---- ___ 13.5 _ 13.6 ____ _ 46

_48 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- __2.4__10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ _ 49

_49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __6.1 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 12.0 _ 11.4 ____ _ 50

_50 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __4.7 ___11.6 __12.8 ____ _ 48

_51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.8 __ 9.6 ____ _ 51

_52 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ _ 60

_53 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __---- __8.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ _ 52

_54 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS  8.2 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 8.2 __ 8.6 ____ _ 55

_55 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __---- __3.6 __---- __ 4.3 __---- ____ 7.9 __8.5 ____ _ 56

_55 ___ B87 ________________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ 7.8 ____ 7.8 __ 9.2 ____ _ 54

T57 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ____ 7.7 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58

T57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- __1.8 ____ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ _ 57

_59 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __---- __---- __ 0.5 __7.1 __---- ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ _ 53

_60 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __4.5 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 7.5 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58

_61 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __---- __---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _ 62

_62 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.3 ____ 6.3 __ 5.7 ____ _ 65

_63___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ____ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ _ 63

_64 ___ LF1002 ______________________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.1 ____ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ _ 61

T65 ___ TJM14 ______________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 5.9 ____ 5.9 __ 5.3 ____ _ 66

T65 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- ____ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ _ 64

_67 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- __---- __5.4 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.4 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68

_68 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _ 67

_69 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68

_70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- __---- __4.7 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____ _ 70

_71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __---- __ ---- ____ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____ _ 71

_72 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- __---- __---- __ 2.9 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____ _ 72

_73 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- __---- __---- __ 2.8 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____ _ 73

_74 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 __ --- __---- __ ---- __---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 __ 2.6 ____ _ 74

_75 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- __---- __1.2 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 1.2 __ 1.2 ____ _ 75

_76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __ 0.8 ____ 0.8 __ 0.8 ____ _ 76

_77 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.7 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.7 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79

_78 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__---- __ ---- ____ 0.4 __ 0.4 ____ _T-77

T79 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.2 __---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-77

T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79

_81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ _ 81

__________________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Scoring for June EWP contest

The NCIC version is 15.6 mm. 

 

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. _____10.0___ 18.0 __ +2.4 ___ B87

 2. _____ 9.8 ___  22.0 __ +6.4 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE

 3. _____ 9.6 ___  23.0 __ +7.4 ___ LET IT SNOW!

 4. _____ 9.4 ___  27.0 __+11.4___ RADIATING DENDRITE

 5. _____ 9.2 ___  34.5 __+18.9___CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

 6. _____ 9.0 ___  37.0 __+21.4___CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

 7. _____ 8.8 ___ 39.0 __+23.4___BOBD29

 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 40.0 __+24.4___MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 42.0 __+26.4___POLAR GAEL

T10 ____ 8 2 ___ 44.0 __+28.4___WEATHER26, STEWFOX

12. _____ 7.8 ___ 45.0 __+29.4 ___MP-R 

13. _____ 7.6 ___ 45.6 __+30.0 ___KIRKCALDY WEATHER

14. _____ 7.4 ___ 46.0 __+30.4___STATIONARY FRONT

15. _____ 7.2 ___ 46.2 __+30.6___THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS

16. _____ 7.0 ___ 49.0 __+33.4___DAVID SNOW

17. _____ 6.8 ___ 50.0 __+34.4___DON

18. _____ 6.5 ___ 51.0 __+35.4___STARGAZER

19. _____ 6.3 ___ 51.0 __+35.4___TIMMYTOUR (6.5 - 0.2 late)

T20 _____5.9 ___ 52.0 __+36.4___SEASIDE60 (6.1 - 0.2 late)

T20 _____5.9 ___ 53.0 __+37.4___TJM14

22. _____ 5.7 ___ 56.0 __+40.4___SINGULARITY

23. _____ 5.5 ___ 57.4 __+41.8___ROGER J SMITH

T24 ____  5.3 ___ 58.0 __+42.4___JEFF C, PEGG-24, STEVE B, DOCTOR32

(T24) ____5.3 ___58.0 __+42.4___consensus 

T28 _____4.3 ___ 60.0 __+44.4___ROBBIE GARRETT, J10, MULZY, THE PIT

32. _____ 4.1 ___ 59.0 __+43.4___MAPANTZ (4.5 - 0.4 late x 2)

33. _____ 3.3 ___ 61.0 __+45.4___PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (3.5 - 0.2 late)

(34) ____ 3.2 ___ 64.1 __+48.5___average 1981-2010 

34. _____ 3.2 ___ 64.5 __+48.9___SYED2878

T35 _____3.0 ___ 65.0 __+49.4___DAMI, ALEXISJ9, REEF

(38) _____2.4 ___ 66.2 __+50.6 ___average 1988-2017

38. _____ 2.4 ___ 67.0 __+51.4 ___ DR(S)NO

39. _____ 2.2 ___ 67.5 __+51.9 ___ COLDEST WINTER

40. _____ 2.0 ___ 69.9 __+54.3 ___ DKEANE3

T41 _____1.8 ___ 70.0 __+54.4 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, BORN FROM THE VOID

T43 _____1.2 ___ 73.0 __+57.4 ___ EDSTONE, NORRANCE

45. _____ 1.0 ___ 71.0 __+55.4 ___ DAVEHSUG (1.4 - 0.4 late x 2)

46. _____ 0.8 ___ 75.0 __+59.4 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY

T47 _____0.6 ___ 80.0 __+64.4 ___ RELATIVISTIC, JONBOY, GODBER.1

50. _____ 0.0 ___200.0__+184.4 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

 

==============================================================

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to June 2018)

Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May__Jun___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ POLAR GAEL _____________ 4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 __8.4 ___ 51.4 ____ _ 03

_02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 __5.7 ___ 50.0 ____ _ 01

_03 ___ STEWFOX ________________7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 __8.2 ___ 46.3 ____ _ 07

_04 ___ JONBOY _________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 __0.6 ___ 44.8 ____ _ 02

_05 ___  J10 _____________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 __4.3 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 06

_06 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 __1.8 ___ 43.7 ____ _ 04

_07 ___ DON ____________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 __6.8 ___ 43.5 ____ _ 09

_08___ SEASIDE 60 _______________5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __5.1 __5.9 ___ 43.3 ____ _ 08

T09 ___ NORRANCE ______________ 7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 __1.2 ___ 42.9 ____ _ 05

T09__ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 __9.2 ___ 42.9 ____ _ 15

_11 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 __8.6 ___ 41.7 ____ _ 18

_12 ___ STEVE B _________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 __5.3 ___ 40.9 ____ _ 12

(13) ___ consensus _______________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 __5.3 ___ 40.5 ____ _ (14)

_13 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __7.0 __6.5 __5.9 __5.6 __2.0 __8.8 ___ 39.0 ____ _ 21

T14 ___ DKEANE3 ________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 __2.0 ___ 37.5 ____ _ 13

T14 ___ MAPANTZ _________________5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 __4.1 ___ 37.5 ____ _ 16

T14 ___ MULZY ___________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 __4.3 ___ 37.5 ____ _ 17

_17 ___ DR (S) NO ________________ 9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 __2.4 ___ 37.2 ____ _ 14 

(18) ___ average 1981-2010 _________7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 __3.2 ___ 37.1 ____ _ (15)

_18 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _____ 2.0 __2.4 __8.7 __4.5 __2.0 __7.8 __9.4 ___ 36.8 ____ _T-32

_19 ___ GODBER.1 _______________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 __0.6 ___ 36.7 ____ _ 10

_20 ___ SIMSHADY _______________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 __---- ___ 35.8 ____ _ 11

_21 ___ SYED2878 ________________ 4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 __3.2 ___ 35.1 ____ _ 19

_22 ___ PEGG24 ___________________8.0 __5.9 __0.7 __6.2 __7.5 __1.2 __5.3 ___ 34.8 ____ _ 24

(23)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.9__8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 __2.4___ 34.7 ____ _ (19)

_23 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __3.3 __8.6 __5.7 __5.4 __2.2 __7.0 ___ 34.4 ____ _T-32

_24 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __9.4 __2.4 __7.1 __2.7 __4.5 __6.5 ___ 34.0 ____ _T-30

_25 ___ TIMMYTOUR _______________ 9.4 __0.2 __7.4 __1.7 __ ---- __8.8 __6.3 ___ 33.8 ____ _T-30

_26 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________0.2 __1.8 __8.1 __9.8 __2.7 __5.5 __5.5 ___ 33.6 ____ _ 28

T27 ___ REEF _____________________ 9.0 __5.3 __2.8 __3.8 __1.8 __7.4 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 22

T27 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- __----__ 8.8 __6.5 __4.7 __3.5 __9.6 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 40

_29 ___ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 __1.2 __7.4 __1.4 __3.8 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 32.9 ____ _ 25

_30 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER _______---- __ ---- __3.5 __8.8 _10.0__2.6 __7.6 ___ 32.5 ____ _ 35

_31 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 __1.0 ___ 32.4 ____ _ 20

_32 ___ WEATHER 26 ______________ ---- __ 4.7 __4.3 __9.5 __0.9 __4.7 __8.2 ___ 32.3 ____ _ 37

_33 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __6.4 __6.8 __9.8 ___ 32.0 ____ _ 41

_34 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________9.0 __9.0 __8.9 __2.6 __0.5 __----  __---- ___ 30.0 ____ _ 23 

_35 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________4.4 __1.0 __8.1 __1.6 __9.8 __3.0 __1.8 ___ 29.7 ____ _ 29

_36 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY ________ 0.6 __3.3 __5.9 __2.6 __9.2 __6.8 __0.8 ___ 29.2 ____ _T-26

_37 __ JEFF C _____________________7.8 __4.1 __1.1 __3.3 __3.1 __4.3 __5.3 ___ 29.0 ____ _ 39

_38 ___ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 __4.9 __6.4 __2.6 __0.7 __5.3 __7.4 ___ 28.5 ____ _ 43

_39 ___ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 __5.9 __4.7 __4.3 __3.4 __6.3 __---- ___ 28.4 ____ _T-26

_40 ___ DAMI ______________________5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.8 __7.4 __3.0 ___ 28.1 ____ _ 34

_41 ___ DOCTOR32 ________________ 1.6 __3.9 __6.4 __5.0 __3.1 __1.4 __5.3 ___ 26.7 ____ _ 42

_42 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.4 __2.2 __7.4 __1.2 __4.7 __0.4 __0.6 ___ 24.9 ____ _ 36

_43 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.3 __7.9 __---- __---- __---- ___ 24.0 ____ _ 38

_44 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER ___3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __9.8 __ ----__3.3 ___ 22.4 ____ _ 44

_45 ___ B87 _______________________  ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __9.2__10.0 ___19.2 ____ _ 54

_46 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __7.2 ___15.8 ____ _ 55

T47 ___ ED STONE _________________ 4.4 __1.6 __5.3 __1.2 __1.1 __ --- __ 1.2 ___ 14.8 ____ _ 46

T47 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________---- __---- __7.4 __7.4 __ ---- __---- __ ---- ___ 14.8 ____ _ 45

_49 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.7 __ 9.0 ___14.7 ____ _ 65

_50 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __5.5 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 __3.0 ___ 14.4 ____ _ 50

_51 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________---- __5.3 __4.3 __3.8 __---- __---- __---- ___ 13.4 ____ _ 47

_52 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __5.9 __---- ___ 12.8 ____ _ 48

_53 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________---- __2.4 _ 10.0__---- __---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 ____ _ 49

_54 ___ TJM14 ____________________  ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.3 __5.9 ___11.2 ____ _ 66

_55 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 9.6 ____ _ 51

_56 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __---- __9.5 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 9.5 ____ _ 52

_57 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __---- __---- __0.7 __ 8.6 __---- ___---- __ 9.3 ____ _ 53

_58 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________---- __ ---- __3.6 __ ---- __4.9 __---- __---- ___ 8.5 ____ _ 56

_59 ___ IAPENNELL _________________ ---- __6.3 __---- __---- __ ---- __1.8 __---- ___ 8.1 ____ _ 57

_60 ___ MP-R ______________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- __ 7.8 ___ 7.8 ____ _ 60

T61 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __4.7 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-58

T61 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-58

_63 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 7.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 7.6 ____ _ 60

_64 ___ LF1002 _____________________---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 7.0 __ ---- ___ 7.0 ____ _ 61

_65 ___ RICEY076 __________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 6.9 ____ _ 62

_66___ MOORLANDER ______________ 5.8 __---- __---- __0.5 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 6.3 ____ _ 63

_67 ___ JAMES M ___________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 5.9 ____ _ 64

T68 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ___________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __ ---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 5.1 ____ _ 67

T68 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT __________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __0.8 __4.3 ___ 5.1 ____ _ 76

T70 ___ ROSS90 ___________________ ---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-68

T70 ___ BACKTRACK________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-68

_72 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS _______---- __---- __4.5 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 4.5 ____ _ 70

_73 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM _ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 4.3 ____ _ 71

_74 ___ MARK NEAL ________________---- __---- __---- __2.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 2.9 ____ _ 72

_75 ___ MATT TARRANT _____________---- __---- __---- __2.8 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 2.8 ____ _ 73

T76 ___ MORE SNOW _______________2.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 2.6 ____ _ 74

T76 ___ COLDEST WINTER __________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- __2.2 ___ 2.6 ____ _T-77

_78 ___ SKY FULL __________________---- __---- __1.2 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 1.2 ____ _ 75

_79 ___ WEIRPIG __________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__ ---- __---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-77

T80 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252___---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- __---- ___ 0.2 ____ _T-79

T80 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED ________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.2 __0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.2 ____ _T-79

_82 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 0.0 ____ _ 81

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

July 2018 forecast contest entries

 

CET

(number in brackets after forecaster name is order of last entry, earlier revised entries do not affect this count)

 

22.0 ... Lettucing Gutted (29)

21.2 ... DeepSnowPlease (26)

20.3 ... Chris . R (+2d late)

19.8 ... DiagonalRedLine (16)

19.7 ... ... ... ... ... warmest July 2006

19.3 .. METALTRON (+1d, late edit from 18.0)

19.2 ... Emmett Garland (58)

19.1 ... Terminal Moraine (45)

19.0 ... Polar Gael (08), Duncan McAlister (53)

18.9 ... EdStone (12), Dami (43) Chezweather (47),  Don (49), Davehsug (55)

18.8 ... 38*5 C (09),  Dancerwithwings (20), Seaside60 (41)

18.7 ... TJM14 (02), Jeff C (11), Singularity (52), J10_(56)

18.6 ... Steve B (04),  AlexisJ9 (+1d late)

18.5 ... Seasonality (27), Leo97T (36), Stationary Front (40), DAVID SNOW (51), stargazer (2d late)

18.4 ... The Pit (22), Damianslaw (57), Norrance (60)

18.3 ... I RememberAtlantic252_(23), ManWithBeard (44),

18.2 ... weather-history (31), Midlands Ice Age (46),  consensus

18.1 ... CheesePuffScott (06), LetItSnow! (15), Thundery Wintry Showers (54), Kentish Man (59)

18.0 ... Pegg24 (03), Reef (30)

17.9 ... Kirkcaldy Weather (05), Doctor32 (35), Summer Sun (37), Roger J Smith (48), Mulzy (50)

17.8 ... Born From The Void (25), Mark Bayley (38)

17.7 ... Captain Shortwave (17)

17.6 ... Summer Blizzard (13), ChrisBellnottheWxman (07), Mapantz (61)

17.5 ... Dr(S)No (21), DKeane3 (28), Syed2878 (33)

17.4 ... Radiating Dendrite (10), Bobd29 (14), Jonboy (24

17.3 ... snowray (18), sundog (39)

17.1 ... Daniel* (32)

17.0 ... weather26 (01)

16.8 ... Godber.1 (42)

16.7 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1988-2017

16.6 ... virtualsphere (19)

16.3 ... Relativistic (34)

13.5 ... coldest July 1816

____________________________

65 forecasts, median 18.2

============================================================================

EWP

340.0 ... DeepSnowPlease

200.0 ... Lettucing Gutted

182.6 ... ... ... ... wettest since 1766 (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1828

142.1 ... ... ... ... wettest since 1910 (NCIC) in 2009 

112.0 ... weather26

 89.0 ... virtualsphere

 84.0 ... Let It Snow! 

 71.1 ... average for 1988-2017

 65.4 ... average for 1981-2010

 65.0 ... Syed2878

 61.0 ... davehsug 

 57.5 ... Roger J Smith

 55.0 ... Dr(S)No, Bobd29

 54.0 ... Jeff C

 53.0 ... Daniel*

 50.0 ... Jonboy, Relativistic, Don

 49.9 ... DKeane3

 48.0 ... Born From The Void, Godber.1

 45.0 ... Leo97T

 42.0 ... Radiating Dendrite, Singularity

 40.0 ... Seasonality

 39.0 ... Pegg24, Reef

 38.0 ... Doctor32

 35.1 ... Thundery Wintry Showers, consensus

 35.0 ... J10, Mapantz

 33.0 ... Mulzy

 32.3 ... ChrisBellnottheWxman

 32.0 ... weather-history

 30.5 ... Chris . R

 30.0 ... Dami

 29.3 ... Stargazer

 28.0 ... CheesePuffScott

 27.1 ... Polar Gael

 27.0 ... Captain Shortwave, Midlands Ice Age

 25,6 ... Kirkcaldy Weather

 25.0 ... Seaside60, DAVID SNOW,  AlexisJ9 (1d late)

 22.0 ... Stationary Front, Emmett Garland, Norrance

 20.3 ... Steve B

 20.0 ... Diagonal Red Line, The Pit, Duncan McAlister

 14.3 ... ... ... driest since 1910 (NCIC) in 1911

 14.0 ... TJM14

 13.6 ... Terminal Moraine

 12.0 ... 38*5 C

  08.2 ... ... ... ... driest since 1766 (Hadley) in 1825

  07.0 ... EdS

_______________________________________________________

 

__ 53 forecasts, consensus 35.0 is the 27th ranked __ 

_________________________________________________________________

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

I've gone for 2c over the average and I think its going to be to low a guess.

Even 25mm unless we get much of a thunderstorm would be to high.

Forget the day to day models just reading the underlining text from the MO although of course by July 25th it could be 17c and pouring with rain lol..?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hadley EWP confirmed now at 15.8 mm ... alternative Hadley scoring for June is identical to the contest official version (NCIC) reported previously except that all errors are 0.2 mm smaller. 

The updated annual Hadley scoring table follows (note, previous Hadley update had wrong title, Dec to Apr, should have been Dec to May). 

 

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Jun 2018) -- Hadley scoring

Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May__Jun___TOTALS _____ NCIC rank

_____________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC

_01 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________ 4.6 __9.0 __9.5 __2.6 __6.9 __9.8 __8.4 ___ 50.8 _ 51.4 ____ _ 01

_02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 __7.0 __9.1 __7.7 __5.6 __8.4 __5.7 ___ 48.7 _ 50.0 ____ _ 02

_03 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 __7.4 __6.7__10.0__9.4 __3.9 __0.6 ___ 46.8 _ 44.8 ____ _ 04

_04 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 __4.3 __5.2 __8.8__10.0__5.7 __5.9 ___ 45.7 _ 43.3 ____ _ 08

_05 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 __5.7 __8.4 __8.3 __9.8 __4.7 __6.8 ___ 45.5 _ 43.5 ____ _ 07

_06 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 __9.6 __4.0 __8.9 __6.9 __0.6 __8.2 ___ 45.2 _ 46.3 ____ _ 03

_07 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 __2.2 __9.6 __9.3 __4.7__10.0__1.2 ___ 44.0 _ 42.9 ____ _T-09

_08 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __6.3 __9.6 __1.8 ___ 43.1 _ 43.7 ____ _ 06

_09 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __9.4 __0.2 __5.3 ___ 42.8 _ 40.9 ____ _ 12

_10 ___  J10 ______________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __7.7 __9.6 __4.3 ___ 42.6 _ 44.3 ____ _ 05

_11 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 __6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __3.7__4.1 __9.2 ___ 42.2 _ 42.9 ____ _T-09

_12 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 __3.3 __9.1 __9.6 __3.2 __3.0 __8.6 ___ 40.2 _ 41.7 ____ _ 11

_13 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __6.6 __5.0 __5.9 __8.4 __2.0 __8.8 ___ 39.9 _ 39.0 ____ _ 13

(T13) __ consensus ________________ 5.2 __5.9 __5.4 __5.7__6.5 __5.9 __5.3 ___ 39.9 _ 40.5 ____ _ (13)

_14 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 __7.8 __5.6 __9.1 __3.5 __2.8 __2.0 ___ 38.0 _ 37.5 ____ _T-14

(15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 __6.6 __5.5 __5.0 __2.3 __7.3 __3.2 ___ 37.5 _ 37.1 ____ _ (18)

_15 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8__10.0__3.8__5.0 __3.2 __7.0 __3.2 ___ 37.0 _ 35.1 ____ _ 21

_16 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 __8.8 __7.1 __0.9 __1.6 __7.2 __4.3 ___ 36.9 _ 37.5 ____ _ T-14

_17 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 __6.3 __1.9 __4.3 __5.6 __9.2 __4.3 ___ 36.8 _ 37.5 ____ _T-14

_18 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 __7.6 __0.4 __7.2 __9.4 __1.8 __---- ___ 36.2 _ 35.8 ____ _ 20

_19 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______2.0 __2.4 __8.9 __4.5 __1.8 __7.0 __9.4 ___ 36.0 _ 36.8 ____ _ 18

_20 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 __8.4 __1.2 __6.2 __5.6 __2.4 __2.4 ___ 35.8 _ 37.2 ____ _ 17

_21 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- __---- __7.9 __6.5 __7.5 __3.7 __9.6 ___ 35.2 _ 33.1 ____ _T-27

(T21)__ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.2 __7.3 __2.4 ___ 35.2 _ 34.7 ____ _ (23)

_22 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __3.3 __9.5 __5.7 __4.7 __2.2 __7.0 ___ 34.6 _ 34.4 ____ _ 23

_23 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 __7.2 __5.9 __3.5 __6.3 __8.6 __0.6 ___ 34.5 _ 36.9 ____ _ 19

T24 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __1.2__10.0__4.8 __9.4 __7.0 __1.0 ___ 34.4 _ 32.4 ____ _ 31

T24 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __9.6 __2.4 __7.1 __2.3 __5.1 __6.5 ___ 34.4 _ 34.0 ____ _ 24

_26 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 __5.1 __0.7 __6.2 __6.3 __1.2 __5.3 ___ 34.0 _ 34.8 ____ _ 22

_27 ___ TIMMYTOUR ______________ 10.0 __0.2 __6.5 __1.7 __---- __9.2 __6.3 ___ 33.9 _ 33.8 ____ _ 25

_28 ___ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 __1.0 __8.4 __1.4 __3.4 __9.2 __4.3 ___ 33.7 _ 32.9 ____ _ 29

_29 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 __5.5 __2.8 __3.8 __1.6 __8.2 __3.0 ___ 33.5 _ 33.1 ____ _T-27

_30  ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- __4.5 __4.5 __9.5 __0.9 __5.3 __8.2 ___ 32.9 _ 32.3 ____ _ 33

_31 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __5.6 __7.6 __9.8 ___ 32.0 _ 32.0 ____ _ 33

_32 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 __1.8 __6.7 __9.8 __3.9 __3.5 __5.5 ___ 31.4 _ 33.6 ____ _ 26

_33 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- __---- __3.5 __8.8 __8.4 __2.6 __7.6 ___ 30.9 _ 32.5 ____ _ 30

_34 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 __3.3 __6.1 __2.6 __9.6 __7.6 __0.8 ___ 30.6 _ 29.2 ____ _ 36

_35 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 __4.9 __1.1 __3.3 __2.7 __4.7 __5.3 ___ 29.6 _ 29.0 ____ _ 37

_36 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 __8.6 __8.8 __2.6 __0.5 __---- __ ---- ___ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ _ 34

T37 ___ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 __4.7 __6.5 __2.6 __0.7 __5.9 __7.4 ___ 29.0 _ 28.5 ____ _ 38

T37 ___ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 __5.1 __4.9 __4.3 __5.8 __5.1 __ ---- ___ 29.0 _ 28.4 ____ _ 39

_39 ___ DAMI ______________________ 5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.6 __8.2 __3.0 ___ 28.7 _ 28.1 ____ _ 40

_40 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 __1.2 __6.7 __1.6 __9.4 __3.3 __1.8 ___ 28.4 _ 29.7 ____ _ 35

_41 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 __2.2 __8.4 __1.2 __7.5 __0.4 __0.6 ___ 28.3 _ 24.9 ____ _ 42

_42 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 __3.9 __6.7 __5.0 __2.7 __1.4 __5.3 ___ 26.6 _ 26.7 ____ _ 41

_43 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.6 __7.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 24.3 _ 24.0 ____ _ 43

_44 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __8.0 __---- __3.3 ___ 20.6 _ 22.4 ____ _ 44

_45 ___ B87 _______________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ 7.8__10.0___ 17.8 _ 19.2 ____ _ 45

_46 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- __---- __8.4 __7.4 __---- __---- __---- ___ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ _T-47

_47 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS  8.2 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __7.2 ___ 15.4 _ 15.8 ____ _ 46

_48 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.3 __9.0 ___ 15.3 _ 14.7 ____ _ 49

_49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __6.1 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 __3.0 ___ 15.0 _ 14.4 ____ _ 50

_50 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 __1.6 __4.2 __1.2 __2.1 __---- __1.2 ___ 14.7 _ 14.8 ____ _T-47

_51 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- __5.5 __4.5 __3.8 __---- __---- __---- ___ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ _ 51

_52 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- __2.4__10.0__---- __---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ _ 53

_53 ___ TJM14 _____________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 5.9 __5.9 ___ 11.8 _ 11.2 ____ _ 54

_54 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __4.7 __---- ___ 11.6 __12.8 ____ _ 52

_55 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 9.8 __ 9.6 ____ _ 55

_56 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ _ 63

_57 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __---- __8.9 __ ---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ _ 56

_58 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __---- __3.6 __---- __ 4.3 __---- __---- ____ 7.9 __ 8.5 ____ _ 58

_59 ___ MP-R ______________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- __ 7.8 ____ 7.8 __ 7.8 ____ _ 60

T60 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 7.7 __ 7.7 ____ _T-61

T60 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- __1.8 __---- ____ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ _ 59

_62 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __---- __---- __ 0.5 __7.1 __---- __---- ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ _ 57

_63 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __4.5 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 7.5 __ 7.7 ____ _T-61

_64 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __---- __---- __---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _ 65

_65___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- __---- ____ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ _ 66

_66 ___ LF1002 ______________________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.1 __---- ____ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ _ 64

_67 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ _ 67

_68 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- __---- __5.4 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 5.4 __ 5.0 ____ _T-70

T69 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _T-68

T69 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __ 0.8 __4.3 ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _T-68

_71 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 ____ _T-70

_72 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- __---- __4.7 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____ _ 72

_73 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____ _ 73

_74 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- __---- __---- __ 2.9 __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____ _ 74

_75 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- __---- __---- __ 2.8 __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____ _ 75

_76 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 __ --- __---- __ ---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 2.6 __ 2.6 ____ _T-76

_77 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.2 __---- __---- __2.2 ____ 2.4 __ 2.6 ____ _T-76

_78 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- __---- __1.2 __ ---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 1.2 __ 1.2 ____ _ 78

_79 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.7 __0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.7 __ 0.2 ____ _T-80

_80 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__---- __ ---- __---- ____ 0.4 __ 0.4 ____ _ 79

_81 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-80

_82 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __---- __ ---- __----____ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ _ 82

__________________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
On 06/06/2018 at 09:16, summer blizzard said:

I can't seem to see myself in the main list?

Its a bit confusing now with the rainfall totals thrown in, lots of facts and figures.:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

No confusion necessary, there are scoring tables for the CET (temperature) contest that are reported in the monthly threads once the value is confirmed. We used to see those tables posted here but for about the past year they have been in the threads. I post the rainfall (EWP) scores here. If you make EWP forecasts, you're scored for them here. If you don't, then there's no score to report. There was one table that I made up to show rankings of those who made both kinds of forecasts. If you don't make a rainfall forecast, your temperature forecast rank is in the table in each monthly thread. 

That table comparing temperature and precip forecasts is several months old now, and I will issue one more this competition year at the end of play in November. But when I do it again, I will show the temperature-only rankings so there is less confusion. However, it does explain in the notes to that table that the temperature rankings are only for those involved in both contests, and symbols are used to show how many rankings are higher than any given forecaster but not entered into the precip contest. 

Since it was snowray who posted, I just went back to have a look. There are notes before the table indicating who had only temperature rankings and what they were. It says "snowray (5)" in that note, meaning back in April after Dec to Mar contests, you were ranked fifth in the temperature contest. You're not in the table but if you look, whoever is ranked 6th is shown as 4th with two asterisks for the two ranks that are left out, in other words, that person was fourth highest of all those who were making both kinds of forecasts. 

"Hope this helps." (although yes it is complicated, maybe I shouldn't have bothered -- did anyone in fact understand the table? Thank this post if you did. :))

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Thanks for that Roger.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
On 05/07/2018 at 08:55, seaside 60 said:

I've gone for 2c over the average and I think its going to be to low a guess.

Even 25mm unless we get much of a thunderstorm would be to high.

Forget the day to day models just reading the underlining text from the MO although of course by July 25th it could be 17c and pouring with rain lol..?

Sorry delete wrong thread and cant seem to edit it.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

July 2018 EWP scoring (NCIC version, 39.5 mm)

 

RANK ___ FORECASTERs ________ Fcst __ Error ___ Points

 __T 01 __ Seasonality ___________ 40.0 ___ +0.5 ___ 10.0

__ T 01 __ Pegg24, Reef __________39.0 ___ --0.5 ___ 10.0

 __ 04 ___ Doctor32 _____________ 38.0 ___ --1.5 ____ 9.4

__T 05 __ Rad Dendrite, Singularity _ 42.0 ___ +2.5 ____ 9.2

 __ 07 __ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8

 __(07)__ consensus ____________35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8

 __ T 08 _ J10, Mapantz __________ 35.0 ___ --4.5 ____ 8.6

 __ 10 ___ Leo97T _______________45.0 ___ +5.5 ____ 8.2

__ 11 ___ Mulzy _________________33.0 ___ --6.5 ____ 8.0

__ 12 ___ ChrisBellnottheWxman ___ 32.3 ___ --7.2 ____ 7.8

__ 13 ___ weather-history _________ 32.0 ___ --7.5 ____ 7.6

__T 14 _ BornFromTheVoid, Godber.1_48.0 ___ +8.5 ____7.4

__ 16 ___ Chris . R _______________ 30.5 ___ --9.0 ____ 7.0

__ 17 ___ Dami __________________30.0 ___ --9.5 ____ 6.8

__ 18 ___ Stargazer ______________ 29.3 ___--10.2____ 6.7

__ 19 ___ DKeane3 ______________ 49.9 ___+10.4____ 6.5

__T20 ___ Jonboy, Relativistic, Don __50.0 ___+10.5____ 6.3

__ 23 ___ CheesePuffScott ________ 28.0 ___--11.5____ 5.7

__ 24 ___ Polar Gael _____________ 27.1 ___--12.4____ 5.5

__T 25 __ Captain Shortwave,

_____________ Midlands Ice Age ___27.0 ___--12.5____ 5.3

__  27 ___ Daniel* _______________ 53.0 ___ +13.5____ 4.9

__ 28 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _______25.6 ___--13.9____ 4.7

__T 29__ Jeff C _________________54.0 ___ +14.5____ 4.5

__T 29__ Seaside60, DAVID SNOW _25.0 ___--14.5____ 4.5

__ 32 ___ AlexisJ9 _______________25.0 ___--14.5____ 4.3 (4.5 - 0.2)

__T 33__ Dr(S)No, Bobd29 ________ 55.0 ___ +15.5____ 3.7

__T 35__ Stationary Front,

_______Emmett Garland, Norrance__ 22.0 ___--17.5____ 3.6

__ 38 ___ Roger J Smith __________ 57.5 ___ +18.0____ 3.0

__ 39 ___ Steve B _______________ 20.3 ___--19.2____ 2.8

__T 40__ Diagonal Red Line,

________ The Pit, Duncan McAlister _ 20.0 ___--19.5____ 2.6

__ 43 ___ davehsug ______________ 61.0 ___ +21.5____ 2.0

__T 44 __ TJM14 _________________14.0 ___--25.5____ 1.8

__T 44 __ Syed2878 ______________ 65.0 ___+25.5____ 1.8

_ (T46) __ average for 1981-2010 ___ 65.4 ___+25.9____ 1.4

__ 46 ___ Terminal Moraine _________13.6 ___--25.9____ 1.4

__ 47 ___ 38*5 C _________________ 12.0 ___--27.5____ 1.2

__ (48) __ average for 1988-2017____ 71.1 ___ +31.6____ 1.1

__ 48 ___ EdS ____________________ 7.0 ___--32.5____ 1.0

__ 49 ___ Let It Snow! ______________84.0 ___+44.5____ 0.8

__ 50 ___ virtualsphere _____________ 89.0 ___+49.9____ 0.6

__ 51 ___ weather26 _______________112.0 ___+72.5____0.4

__ 52 ___ Lettucing Gutted __________ 200.0 ___+160.5___0.2

__ 53 ___ DeepSnowPlease _________ 340.0 ___+300.5___0.0

=========================================================

 

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to July 2018)

 

 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul__TOTAL_ previous rank

  

_01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2__ 59.2 ____ 02

_02 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.9 ____ 01

_03 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 __ 52.9 ____ 05

T04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 __ 51.1 ____ 04

T04 __  BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 __ 51.1 ____ 06

_06_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.7 ____T-09

_07 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3 __ 49.8 ____ 07

(08) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 __ 49.3 ____ (13)

_08 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 __ 47.8 ____ 08

_09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 __ 46.5 ____T-09

_10 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 47.0 ____ 11

_11 __ STEWFOX ______________7.0 _9.4 _4.0 _8.9 _8.2 _0.6 _8.2 _---- __ 46.3 ____ 03

_12 __ MAPANTZ ______________5.2 _6.8 _1.9 _4.3 _6.4 _8.8 _4.1 _8.6 __ 46.1 ____ T-14

_13 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 __ 46.0 ____ 18

_14 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 __ 45.5 ____T-14

_15 __ PEGG24 _______________ 8.0 _5.9 _0.7 _6.2 _7.5 _1.2 _5.3 _10.0 __ 44.8 ____ 22

_16 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5 _10.0 _0.6 _7.4__ 44.1 ____ 19

_17 __ DKEANE3 ______________ 7.2 _7.6 _5.2 _9.1 _3.6 _2.8 _2.0 _6.5 __ 44.0 ____T-14

_18 __ STEVE B _______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _7.5 _0.2 _5.3 _2.8 __ 43.7 ____ 12

_19 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0__ 43.1 ____T-27

_20 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 __ 42.7 ____ 13

_21 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 __ 40.9 ____ 17 

_22 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 __ 40.7 ____ 24

_23 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 __ 38.9 ____ 23

(24) __ average 1981-2010 _______7.8 _7.0 _5.1 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4 __ 38.5 ____ (18)

_24 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ___ ---- _ ---- _3.5 _8.8 _10.0_2.6 _7.6 _4.7 __ 37.2 ____ 30

_25 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 __ 36.9 ____ 21

_26 __ WEATHER-HISTORY _____ 0.6 _3.3 _5.9 _2.6 _9.2 _6.8 _0.8 _7.6 __ 36.8 ____ 36

_27 __ ROGER J SMITH _________ 0.2 _1.8 _8.1 _9.8 _2.7 _5.5 _5.5 _3.0 __ 36.6 ____ 26

_28 __ DOCTOR32 ____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.4 _5.0 _3.1 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 __ 36.1 ____ 41

_29 __ SIMSHADY ______________8.2 _8.4 _0.4 _7.2 _9.8 _1.8 _--- _ ---- __ 35.8 ____ 20

(T29)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 __ 35.8 ____  (23)

_30 __ THE_PIT ________________6.0 _1.2 _7.4 _1.4 _3.8 _8.8 _4.3 _2.6 __ 35.5 ____ 29

_31 __ DAMI __________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0 _6.8 __ 34.9 ____ 40

_32 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _ ---- _ 2.1 _6.9 _6.4 _6.8 _9.8 _2.6 __ 34.6 ____ 33

_33 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 1.0 _1.2 _9.1 _4.8 _7.5 _7.8 _1.0 _2.0 __ 34.4 ____ 31

_34 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 __ 33.9 ____T-27

_35 __ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 9.4 _0.2 _7.4 _1.7 _ ---- _8.8 _6.3 _--- __ 33.8 ____ 25

_36 __ JEFF C _________________7.8 _4.1 _1.1 _3.3 _3.1 _4.3 _5.3 _4.5 __ 33.5 ____ 37

_37 __ DANIEL* _______________ 3.8 _5.9 _4.7 _4.3 _3.4 _6.3 _---- _4.9 __ 33.3 ____ 39

_38 __ WEATHER 26 ___________ --- _ 4.7 _4.3 _9.5 _0.9 _4.7 _8.2 _0.4 __ 32.7 ____ 32

_39 __ STATIONARY FRONT ____ 1.2 _4.9 _6.4 _2.6 _0.7 _5.3 _7.4 _3.6 __ 32.1 ____ 38

_40 __ RELATIVISTIC __________ 8.4 _2.2 _7.4 _1.2 _4.7 _0.4 _0.6 _6.3 __ 31.2 ____ 42

_41 __ CHRIS. R ______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.3 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 __ 31.0 ____ 43

_42 __ VIRTUALSPHERE _______ 4.4 _1.0 _8.1 _1.6 _9.8 _3.0 _1.8 _0.6 __ 30.3 ____ 35

_43 __ VIZZY2004 _____________ 9.0 _9.0 _8.9 _2.6 _0.5 _ ---  _---- _---- __ 30.0 ____ 34

_44 _THUNDERYWINTRYSHOWERS 8.6_--- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 __24.6 ____ 46

_45 _ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER_3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _9.8 _ ----_3.3 _---- __ 22.4 ____ 44

_46 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ____ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.7 _ 9.0 _5.7 __ 20.4 ____ 49

_47 __ B87 ___________________  ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _9.2_10.0 _--- __ 19.2 ____ 45

_48 __ ALEXISJ9 _______________2.8 _5.5 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.3 __ 18.7 ____ 50

_49 __ ED STONE _____________ 4.4 _1.6 _5.3 _1.2 _1.1 _ --- _ 1.2 _1.0 __ 15.8 ____T-47

_50 __ GREAT PLUM ___________---- _---- _7.4 _7.4 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 14.8 ____T-47

_51 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ____---- _---- _---- _0.7 _8.6 _---- _ ---- _5.3 __14.6 ____ 57

_52 __ FOZFOSTER ____________---- _5.3 _4.3 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.4 ____ 51

_53 __ TJM14 ________________  ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.3 _5.9 _1.8 __ 13.0 ____ 54

_54 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST __0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _5.9 _---- _---- __ 12.8 ____ 52

_55 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN ________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 12.4 ____ 53

_56 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ____ 9.6 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _1.4 __ 11.0 ____ 55

_57 __ SEASONALITY __________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 __ 10.0 ____ ---

_58 __ NORTHWEST SNOW _____ ---- _---- __9.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----__ 9.5 ____ 56

_59 __ LETTERBOXER __________---- _ ---- _3.6 _ ---- _4.9 _---- _---- _---- __ 8.5 ____ 58

_60 __ TJM14 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _8.2 __ 8.2 ____ ---

_61 __ IAPENNELL _____________ ---- _6.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- _---- __ 8.1 ____ 59

_62 __ MP-R __________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- __ 7.8 ____ 60

T63 __ BOOFERKING ___________ 3.0 _4.7 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-61

T63 __ CORAM _________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-61

_65 __ V FOR VERY COLD _______ 7.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.6 ____ 63

_66 __ LF1002 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _7.0 _ ---- _ ----__ 7.0 ____ 64

_67 __ RICEY076 ______________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 6.9 ____ 65

_68__ MOORLANDER __________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.5 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 6.3 ____ 66

_69 __ JAMES M _______________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.9 ____ 67

T70 __ CASTELLANUS80 _______ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.1 ____T-68

T70 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _0.8 _4.3 _---- __ 5.1 ____T-68

T72 __ ROSS90 _______________ ---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-70

T72 __ BACKTRACK____________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-70

_74 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ___---- _---- _4.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 4.5 ____ 72

_75 _ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM_----_----_----_4.3_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 4.3 ____ 73

_76 __ EMMETT GARLAND______---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.6 __ 3.6 ____----

_77 __ MARK NEAL ____________---- _---- _---- _2.9 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 2.9 ____ 74

_78 __ MATT TARRANT _________---- _---- _---- _2.8 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 2.8 ____ 75

T79 __ MORE SNOW ___________2.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-76

T79 __ COLDEST WINTER ______ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.4 _---- _---- _2.2 _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-76

T79 __ DUNCAN McALISTER_____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 __ 2.6 ____----

T82 __ SKY FULL ______________---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 1.2 ____ 78

T82 __ 38*5 C _________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 __ 1.2 ____----

T84 __ WEIRPIG ______________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.4 ____ 79

T84 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ____ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 __ 0.4 ____T-80

_86 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.2 ____T-80

_87 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ____ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 82

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)  

 

 
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET forecasts August 2018

 

21.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (12)

20.1 __ STEVE MURR (14)

20.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L1-8)

19.7__ SUMMER SUN (22)

19.3 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (L1-6)

19.2 __ warmest August 1995

19.1 __ PEGG24 (19)

19.0 __ EDSTONE (6), JEFF C (13), ROBBIE GARRETT (21)

18.9 __ LET IT SNOW! (17) GBRUNNER12 (18)

18.8 __ DOCTOR32 (L1-7)

18.6 __ STEVE B (42) THUNDERSNOWDAYS (54)

18.5 __ SINGULARITY (52)

18.4 __ STEWFOX (24) CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN (28) DEEPSNOW (30) J10 (51) DAVID SNOW (L1-3)

18.3 __ POLAR GAEL (3) DAMIANSLAW (38) DON (56).

18.2 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE (7)  SEASIDE60 (36) NORRANCE (39) DAVEHSUG (L1-2)

18.1 __ SNOWRAY (23), BORNFROMTHEVOID (43)

18.0 __ DANCERWITHWNGS (9) THE PIT (49) KENTISH MAN (55)

17.9 __ ROGER J SMITH (20), CHEZWEATHER (26), DAMI (L1-4) ,,, ,,, consensus

17.8 __ LEO97T (4) BOBD29 (15) MAN WITH BEARD (41) MIDLANDS ICE AGE (48)

17.7 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT(10) REEF (40) EMMETT GARLAND (47)\

17.6 __ POLAR MARITIME (8) I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (31) MARK BAYLEY (33) MULZY (50)

17.5 __ DR(S)NO (25)

17.4 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (16) STATIONARY FRONT (37) DANIEL* (45)

17.3 __ WEATHER-HISTORY (34)

17.2 __ SNOWYOWL9 (29), METALTRON (53) DUNCAN McALISTER (L1-5)

17.1 __ JONBOY (L1-9)

16.9 __ RELATIVISTIC (27)

16.8 __ GODBER.1 (L1-1)

16.7__ RADIATING DENDRITE (2) VIRTUALSPHERE (44)

16.6 __ ALEXISJ9 (35)

16.5 __ SYED2878 (32) ... average 1988-2017

16,4 __ average 1981-2010

15.9 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (5)

15.5 __ TJM14 (1)

14.8 )__ WEATHER26 (11)

14.4 __ CHEESE (46)

12.9 __ coldest August 1912

------------ ---------------

56 on-time forecasts plus nine more that are one day late

numbers in brackets indicate order of entry, (L1-x) for the one day late set

consensus (median) 17.9, 

====================================================================

EWP forecasts August 2018

 

200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED

192.9 __ __ wettest August (1912)

112.0 __ WEATHER26

 95.0 __ JONBOY (+1d)

 90,0 __ EDSTONE

 87.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+1d)

 85.0 __ LET IT SNOW!

 84.0 __ SINGULARITY, DAVEHSUG (+1d)

 78.0 __ TJM14

 76.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT

 75.9 __ average 1988-2017

 75.0 __ DR(S)NO, SYED2878

 74.0 __ ALEXISJ9

 73.0 __ average 1981-2010

 70.0 __ DON, DAVID SNOW (+1d)

 67.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT

 66.0 __ RELATIVISTIC

 64.8 __ CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN

 62.0 __ EMMETT GARLAND

 56.0 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

 55.0 __ NORRANCE

 52.0 __ POLAR MARITIME

 51.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 50.5 __ consensus

 50.0 __ LEO97T, REEF, J10, DAMI (+1d)

 48.0 __ JEFF C

 47.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY

 46.0 __ ROGER J SMITH, STEVE B

 45.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID, DANIEL* (+1d)

 44.0 __ GODBER.1 (+1d)

 43.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 42.0 __ MULZY

 40.0 __ STEVE MURR

 38.5 __ POLAR GAEL

 37.0 __ SEASIDE60

 36.8 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER

 35.0 __ DOCTOR32 (+1d)

 33,0 __ BOBD29

 30.0 __ THE PIT

 26.0 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

 25.0 __ PEGG24 ...

__9.1 __ driest August (1995)

-----------------------

37 on time forecasts, plus 7 marked one day late, 44 in total ...

median for consensus is 50.5 mm.

NOTE:Table posted 1100h 3rd, anything posted in the August thread after that time will not appear in the tables but still valid to midnight.

 
 
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

July 2018 EWP scoring (Hadley version, 39.9 mm)

  

RANK ___ FORECASTERs ________ Fcst __ Error ___ Points

 __ 01 __ Seasonality ____________ 40.0 ___ +0.1 ___ 10.0

 __ T 02 __ Pegg24, Reef _________ 39.0 ___ --0.9 ____ 9.8

  __ 04 ___ Doctor32 _____________ 38.0 ___ --1.9 ____ 9.4

 __T 05 __ Rad Dendrite, Singularity _ 42.0 ___ +2.1 ____ 9.2

  __ 07 __ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 35.1 ___ --4.8 ____ 8.8

  __(07)__ consensus ____________35.1 ___ --4.8 ____ 8.8

  __ T 08 _ J10, Mapantz __________ 35.0 ___ --4.9 ____ 8.6

  __ 10 ___ Leo97T _______________45.0 ___ +5.1 ____ 8.2

__ 11 ___ Mulzy _________________33.0 ___ --6.9 ____ 8.0

__ 12 ___ ChrisBellnottheWxman ___ 32.3 ___ --7.6 ____ 7.8

__ 13 ___ weather-history _________ 32.0 ___ --7.9 ____ 7.6

__T 14 _ BornFromTheVoid, Godber.1_48.0 ___ +8.1 ____7.4

 __ 16 ___ Chris . R _______________30.5 ___ --9.4 ____ 7.0

__ 17 ___ Dami __________________30.0 ___ --9.9 ____ 6.8

__ 18 ___ DKeane3 ______________ 49.9 ___+10.0____ 6.7

__T 19 __ Jonboy, Relativistic, Don __ 50.0 ___+10.1____ 6.5

__ 22 ___ Stargazer ______________ 29.3 ___--10.6____ 5.9

__ 23 ___ CheesePuffScott ________ 28.0 ___--11.9____ 5.7

__ 24 ___ Polar Gael _____________ 27.1 ___--12.8____ 5.5

__T 25 __ Captain Shortwave,

_____________ Midlands Ice Age ___27.0 ___--12.9____ 5.3

__  27 ___ Daniel* _______________ 53.0 ___ +13.1____ 4.9

__ 28 ___ Jeff C _________________54.0 ___ +14.1____ 4.7

__ 29 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _______25.6 ___--14.3____ 4.5

__T 30__ Seaside60, DAVID SNOW _25.0 ___--14.9____ 4.3

__ 32 ___ AlexisJ9 _______________25.0 ___--14.9____ 4.1 (4.3 - 0.2)

__T 33__ Dr(S)No, Bobd29 ________ 55.0 ___ +15.1____ 3.7

__ 35 ___ Roger J Smith __________ 57.5 ___ +17.6____ 3.5

_T 36__ Stationary Front,

_______Emmett Garland, Norrance__ 22.0 ___--17.9____ 3.4

__ 39 ___ Steve B _______________ 20.3 ___--19.6____ 2.8

 __T 40__ Diagonal Red Line,

________ The Pit, Duncan McAlister _ 20.0 ___--19.9____ 2.6

__ 43 ___ davehsug ______________ 61.0 ___ +21.1____ 2.0

__ 44 ___ Syed2878 ______________ 65.0 ___+25.1____ 1.8

_ (45) ___ average for 1981-2010 ___ 65.4 ___+25.5____ 1.7

__ 45 ___ TJM14 ________________ 14.0 ___--25.9____ 1.6

__ 46 ___ Terminal Moraine ________13.6 ___--26.3____ 1.4

 __ 47 ___ 38*5 C _______________ 12.0 ___--27.9____ 1.2

__ (48) __ average for 1988-2017___ 71.1 ___ +31.2____ 1.1

__ 48 ___ EdStone _______________ 7.0 ___--32.9____ 1.0

__ 49 ___ Let It Snow! ____________ 84.0 ___+44.1____ 0.8

__ 50 ___ virtualsphere ___________ 89.0 ___+49.5____ 0.6

__ 51 ___ weather26 _____________112.0 ___+72.1____0.4

__ 52 ___ Lettucing Gutted ________ 200.0 ___+160.1___0.2

__ 53 ___ DeepSnowPlease _______ 340.0 ___+300.1___0.0

 =========================================================

  

 Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to July 2018) -- Hadley scoring

 Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul __ TOTALS _____ NCIC rank

 __________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC

_01 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 _7.0 _9.1 _7.7 _5.6 _8.4 _5.7 _9.2 __ 57.9 _ 59.2 ____ 01

_02 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________4.6 _9.0 _9.5 _2.6 _6.9 _9.8 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.3 _ 56.9 ____ 02

_03 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 _7.4 _6.7_10.0_9.4 _3.9 _0.6 _6.5 __ 53.3 _ 51.1 ____T-04

_04 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 _5.7 _8.4 _8.3 _9.8 _4.7 _6.8 _6.5 __ 52.0 _ 49.8 ____ 07

_05 ___  J10 ______________________4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _7.7 _9.6 _4.3 _ 8.6 __ 51.4 _ 52.9 ____ 03

_06 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _6.3 _9.6 _1.8 _7,4 __ 50.5 _ 51.1 ____T-04

T07 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 _4.3 _5.2 _8.8_10.0_5.7 _5.9 _4.3 __ 50.0 _ 47.8 ____ 08

T07 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _3.7_4.1 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.0 _ 50.7 ____ 06

_(09) __ consensus ________________5.2 _5.9 _5.4 _5.7_6.5 _5.9 _5.3 _8.8 __ 48.7 _ 49.3 ____ (08)

_09 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 _2.2 _9.6 _9.3 _4.7_10.0_1.2 _3.4 __ 47.4 _ 46.5 ____ 09

_10 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _9.4 _0.2 _5.3 _ 2.8 __ 45.6 _ 43.7 ____ 18

_11 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 _3.3 _9.1 _9.6 _3.2 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 45.5 _ 47.0 ____ 10

_12 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 _6.3 _1.9 _4.3 _5.6 _9.2 _4.3 _8.6 __ 45.4 _ 46.1 ____ 12

T13 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 _9.6 _4.0 _8.9 _6.9 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- __ 45.2 _ 46.3 ____ 11

T13 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______2.0 _2.4 _8.9 _4.5 _1.8 _7.0 _9.4 _9.2 __ 45.2 _ 46.0 ____ 13

_15 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 _8.8 _7.1 _0.9 _1.6 _7.2 _4.3 _8.0 __ 44.9 _ 45.5 ____ 14

_16 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 _7.8 _5.6 _9.1 _3.5 _2.8 _2.0 _6.7 __ 44.7 _ 44.0 ____ 17

_17 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 _5.1 _0.7 _6.2 _6.3 _1.2 _5.3 _9.8 __ 43.8 _ 44.8 ____ 15

_18 ___ BOBD29___________________3.2 _6.6 _5.0 _5.9 _8.4 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 __ 43.6 _ 42.7 ____ 20

_19 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 _5.5 _2.8 _3.8 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _9.8 __ 43.3 _ 43.1 ____ 19

_20 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 _7.2 _5.9 _3.5 _6.3 _8.6 _0.6 _7.4 __ 41.9 _ 44.3 ____ 16

_21 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 _9.6 _2.4 _7.1 _2.3 _5.1 _6.5 _5.9 __ 40.3 _ 40.7 ____ 22

_22 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 _8.4 _1.2 _6.2 _5.6 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 __ 39.5 _ 40.9 ____ 21

(23) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 _6.6 _5.5 _5.0 _2.3 _7.3 _3.2 _1.7 __ 39.2 _ 38.5 ___ (24)

_23 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8_10.0_3.8_5.0 _3.2 _7.0 _3.2 _1.8 __ 38.8 _ 36.9 ____ 25

_24 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 _3.3 _9.5 _5.7 _4.7 _2.2 _7.0 _4.3 __ 38.9 _ 38.9 ____ 23

_25 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 _3.3 _6.1 _2.6 _9.6 _7.6 _0.8 _7.6 __ 38.2 _ 36.8____ 26

_26 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 _1.2_10.0_4.8 _9.4 _7.0 _1.0 _2.0 __ 36.4 _ 34.4 ____ 33

_27 ___ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 _1.0 _8.4 _1.4 _3.4 _9.2 _4.3 _2.6 __ 36.3 _ 35.5 ____ 30

(T27)__ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 _8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.2 _7.3 _2.4 _1.1 __ 36.3 _ 35.8 ____T-29

_28 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 _7.6 _0.4 _7.2 _9.4 _1.8 _---- _---- __ 36.2 _ 35.8 ____ 29

_29 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- _---- _7.9 _6.5 _7.5 _3.7 _9.6 _0.8 __ 36.0 _ 33.9 ____ 34

_30 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 _3.9 _6.7 _5.0 _2.7 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 __ 36.0 _ 36.1 ____ 28

_31 ___ DAMI ______________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _6.8 __ 35.5 _ 34.9 ____ 31

_32 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- _---- _3.5 _8.8 _8.4 _2.6 _7.6 _4.5 __ 35.4 _ 37.2 ____ 24

_33 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 _1.8 _6.7 _9.8 _3.9 _3.5 _5.5 _3.5 __ 34.9 _ 36.6 ____ 27

_34 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 _2.2 _8.4 _1.2 _7.5 _0.4 _0.6 _6.5 __ 34.8 _ 31.2 ____ 40

_35 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- _---- _2.1 _6.9 _5.6 _7.6 _9.8 _2.6 __ 34.6 _ 34.6 ____ 32

_36 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 _4.9 _1.1 _3.3 _2.7 _4.7 _5.3 _4.7 __ 34.3 _ 33.5 ____ 36

T37 ___ TIMMYTOUR ______________ 10.0 _0.2 _6.5 _1.7 _---- _9.2 _6.3 _---- __ 33.9 _ 33.8 ____ 35

T37 ___ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 _5.1 _4.9 _4.3 _5.8 _5.1 _ ---- _4.9 __ 33.9 _ 33.3 ____ 37

_39  ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- _4.5 _4.5 _9.5 _0.9 _5.3 _8.2 _0.4 __ 33.3 _ 32.7 ____ 38

_40 ___ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 _4.7 _6.5 _2.6 _0.7 _5.9 _7.4 _3.4 __ 32.4 _ 32.1 ____ 39

_41 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.6 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 __ 31.3 _ 31.0 ____ 41

_42 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 _8.6 _8.8 _2.6 _0.5 _---- _ ---- _---- __ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ 43

_43 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 _1.2 _6.7 _1.6 _9.4 _3.3 _1.8 _0.6 __ 29.0 _ 30.3 ____ 42

_44 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS  8.2 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 __ 24.2 _ 24.6 ____ 44

_45 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.3 _9.0 _5,7 __ 21.0 _ 20.4 ____ 46

_46 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 _0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _8.0 _---- _3.3 _---- __ 20.6 _ 22.4 ____ 45

_47 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 _6.1 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.1 __ 19.1 _ 18.7 ____ 48

_48 ___ B87 _______________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 7.8_10.0_---- __ 17.8 _ 19.2 ____ 47

_49 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- _---- _8.4 _7.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ 50

_50 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 _1.6 _4.2 _1.2 _2.1 _---- _1.2 _1.0 __ 15.7 _ 15.8 ____ 49

_51 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- _5.5 _4.5 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ 52

_52 ___ TJM14 _____________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 5.9 _5.9 _1.6 __ 13.4 _ 13.0 ____ 53

_53 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- _---- _---- _0.5 _7.1 _---- _----_5.3 __ 12.9 _ 14.6 ____ 51

_54 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ 55

_55 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _4.7 _---- _---- __ 11.6 __12.8 ____ 54

_56 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.4 __ 11.2 _ 11.0 ____ 56

_57 ___ SEASONALITY _______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 __ 10.0 _ 10.0 ____ 57

_58 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ 65

_59 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- _---- _8.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ 58

_60 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- _---- _3.6 _---- _ 4.3 _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.9 __ 8.5 ____ 59

_61 ___ LEO97T_____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 8.2 ___ 8.2 __ 8.2 ____ 60

_62 ___ MP-R ______________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- ___ 7.8 __ 7.8 ____ 62

T63 ___ CORAM _____________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 7.7 ___T-63

T63 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _1.8 _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ 61

_65 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 _4.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.5 __ 7.7 ___T-63

_66 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ 67

_67___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ 68

_68 ___ LF1002 ______________________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.1 _---- _---- ___ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ 66

_69 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ 69

_70 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- _---- _5.4 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.4 __ 5.0 ___T-72

T71 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___T-70

T71 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 0.8 _4.3 _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___T-70

_73 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.0 __ 5.0 ___T-72

_74 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____74

_75 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- _---- _---- _4.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____75

_76 __ EMMETT GARLAND____________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.4 ___ 3.4 __3.4 ____76

_77 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- _---- _---- _ 2.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____77

_78 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- _---- _---- _ 2.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____78

T79 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 _ --- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 ___T-79

T79 __ DUNCAN McALISTER___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 ___T-79

_81 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.2 _---- _---- _2.2 _---- ___ 2.4 __ 2.6 ___T-79

T82 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 ___T-82

T82 ___ 38*5 C _______________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 ___T-82

_84 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.7 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 ___ 0.9 __ 0.4 ____T-84

_85 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- ___ 0.4 __ 0.4 ___T-84

_86 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- ___ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ 86

_87 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _ ---- _----_0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 87

__________________________________________________________________________________

In the course of updating the Hadley scores, two errors were noted in the NCIC annual scoring table.

(a) Godber.1 has 44.3 points, not 44.1 as shown.

(b) the second entry in 60th position for TJM14 (total 8.2) should have been for Leo97T. 

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Tables of entries for September 2018 contests

 

CET forecasts (*C) (number in brackets is order of entry)

19.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (2)

17.0 __ Leo97T (6)

16.8 __ __ __ __ __ warmest Sept (2006)

16.5 __ Syed2878 (23)

16.3 __ EdStone (25) ... has changed to 15.3 with 2d late penalty ... all entries 26-56 drop one as shown now

16.0 __ Optimus Prime (31), All Weather (46)

15.8 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (27)

15.7 __ Kentish Man (40)

15.6 __ GBRunner12 (11), Blast From The Past (25), Steve B (29)

15.5 __ CheesePuffScott (10), BornFromTheVoid (33)

15.4 __ virtualsphere (26)

15.3 __ damianslaw (28), Mark Bayley (34), EdStone (2d late - 1)

15.2 __ snowray (30), Don (48)

15.1 __ DancerWithWings (20), jonboy (37), Singularity (55), J10 (57)

15.0 __ ==MeteoMan== (3), The Pit (32), sundog (51)

14.9 __ Polar Gael (7), Bobd29 (8), JeffC (12), Captain Shortwave (16), Reef (54), seaside60 (late 1d - 2).consensus

14.8 __ Radiating Dendrite (1), Stargazer (14), Dami (17), ManWithBeard (44)

14.7 __ Summer Sun (50), Duncan McAlister (late 1d - 3)

14.6 __ Snowyowl9 (22), Badgers01 (24), David Snow (52)

14.5 __ Dr(S)No (19), Norrance (39)

14.4 __ Roger J Smith (42), Stationary Front (53)

14.3 __ LetItSnow! (9)

14.2 __ Mulzy (45), Midlands Ice Age (47)

14.1 __ average 1988-2017

14.0 __ average 1981-2010 and Summer Blizzard (5), davehsug (56)

13.9 __ weather26 (4)

13.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (13), coldest winter (18), daniel* (35), weather-history (38)

13.6 __ ProlongedSnowLover (43)

13.5 __ Godber.1 (49)

13.4 __ AlexisJ9 (15)

13.1 __ vizzy2004 (21)

13.0 __ metaltron (41), Relativistic (late 1d - 1)

11.8 __ 38.5*C (36)

10.5 __ __ __ __ __ coldest Septembers 1674,1675,1694,1807

57 on time entries, 3 more were one day late, and one was (edited) 2d late -- 61 total.

_ consensus (median value) is 14.9 C.

============================================================

EWP forecasts (mm) (order of entry not a factor for scoring)

200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted

186.4 __ __ __ __ wettest (1918)

156.0 __ Steve B

128.0 __ weather26

 95.0 __ AlexisJ9

 87.0 __ Bobd29

 85.5 __ PolarGael

 75.5 __ Dr(S)No

 74.7 __ average 1988-2017

 74.0 __ JeffC

 71.1 __ average 1981-2010

 71.0 __ Radiating Dendrite

 67.0 __ Stargazer

 66.0 __ GBRunner12

 65.0 __ J10

 64.0 __ CheesePuffScott

 62.0 __ LetItSnow!

 60.0 __ jonboy, Relativistic (+1d)

 53.0 __ Midlands Ice Age

 52.0 __ Captain Shortwave, virtualsphere

 50.0 __ Dami, The Pit, Norrance, consensus

 49.5 __ Roger J Smith

 49.0 __ Singularity

 47.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather

 47.0 __ seaside60 (+1d)

 46.2 __ ==MeteoMan== (calculated from 65% of avg)

 46.0 __ Stationary Front

 45.0 __ Reef, davehsug

 44.0 __ vizzy2004

 40.0 __ syed2878, weather-history, Mulzy, Don

 38.0 __ BornFromTheVoid

 30.0 __ AllWeather, David Snow

 22.0 __ Godber.1

 17.0 __ EdStone

 12.0 __ Blast From The Past

__8.4 __ driest (1959)

39 on time entries, 2 were one day late, 41 total entries

_ Consensus (median) was 50.0 mm.

_____________________________________________________

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

August 2018 EWP scoring (using NCIC value of 71.7 mm)

 

RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score

 

_ (1) __ average 1981-2010 __________73.0 ____ +1.3 ____ 10.0

__ 1 __ DON ______________________ 70.0 ____ --1.7 ___ 10.0

__ 2 __ DAVID SNOW _______________70.0 ____ --1.7 ____ 9.8 (10.0 - 0.2) (+1d late)

__ 3 __ ALEXISJ9 __________________ 74.0 ____ +2.3 ____ 9.6

__ 4 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 69.0 ____ --2.7 ____ 9.4

_T 5 __ DR(S)NO, SYED2878 _________75.0 ____ +3.3 ____ 9.1 each

_ (7) _average 1988-2017 __________ 75.9 ____ +4.2 ____ 9.0

__ 7 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ 76.0 ____ +4.3 ____ 8.9

__ 8 __ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 66.0 ____ --5.7 ____ 8.7

__ 9 __ TJM14 ______________________78.0 ____ +6.3 ____ 8.4

_ 10 __ CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN _____ 64.8 ____ --6.9 ____ 8.2

_ 11 __ EMMETT GARLAND __________ 62.0 ____ --9.7 ____ 8.0

_ 12 __ SINGULARITY _______________ 84.0 ____+12.3____ 7.7

_ 13 __ DAVEHSUG _________________ 84.0 ____+12.3____ 7.5 (7.7 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_ 14 __ LET IT SNOW! _______________ 85.0 ____+13.3____ 7.3

_ 15 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 87.0 ____+15.3____ 6.9 (7.1 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_ 16 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE _______ 56.0 ____--15.7____ 6.6

_ 17 __ NORRANCE _________________ 55.0 ____--16.7____ 6.4

_ 18 __ EDSTONE ___________________90.0 ____+18.3____ 6.2

_ 19 __ POLAR MARITIME ____________ 52.0 ____--19.7____ 5.9

_ 20 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________ 51.0 ____--20.7____ 5.7

_ (21) _ consensus _________________ 50.5 ____--21.2____ 5.5

_T21 __ LEO97T, REEF, J10 __________ 50.0 ____--21.7____ 5.4 each

_ 24 __ DAMI ______________________ 50.0 ____--21.7____ 5.2 (5.4 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T25 __ JONBOY ___________________ 95.0 ____+23.3 ____ 4.4 (4.6 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T25 __ JEFF C ____________________ 48.0 ____--23.7____ 4.3

_ 27 _  WEATHER-HISTORY __________ 47.0 ____--24.7____ 4.1

_T28 __ ROGER J SMITH, STEVE B ___ 46.0 ____--25.7____ 3.8 each

_ 30 __ BORN FROM THE VOID _______45.0 ____--26.7____ 3.3

_ 31 __ DANIEL* ____________________45.0 ____--26.7____ 3.1 (3.3 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T32__ GODBER.1 __________________44.0 ____--27.7____ 2.8 (3.0 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T32__ RADIATING DENDRITE ________43.0 ____--28.7____ 2.8

_ 34 __ MULZY _____________________42.0 ____--29.7____ 2.5

_ 35 __ STEVE MURR _______________ 40.0 ____--31.7____ 2.3

 _ 36 __ POLAR GAEL _______________ 38.5 ____--33.2____ 2.1

_ 37 __ SEASIDE60 _________________ 37.0 ____--34.7____ 1.8

_ 38 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER _______ 36.8 ____--34.9____ 1.6

_ 39 __ DOCTOR32 _________________ 35.0 ____--36.7 ____ 1.2 (1.4 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_ 40 __ BOBD29 ____________________33.0 ____--38.7 ____ 1.1

_ 41 __ WEATHER26 _______________112.0 ____ +40.3 ____ 0.9

_ 42 __ THE PIT ____________________30.0 ____--41.7 ____ 0.7

_ 43 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _________26.0 ____--45.7____ 0.4

_ 44 __ PEGG24 ____________________25.0 ____--46.7____ 0.2

_ 45 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ________ 200.0 ___+128.3____ 0.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

37 on time forecasts, plus 8 marked one day late, 45 in total ... table of forecasts had error in that count.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Updated EWP annual scoring (NCIC version) for Dec 2017 to Aug 2018

 

Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug __TOTAL_ previous rank

_01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 __ 66.9 ____ 01

_02 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 __ 59.8 ____ 07

_03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 __ 59.0 ____ 02

_04_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 __ 58.9 ____ 06

_05 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 __ 58.3 ____ 03

_06 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 __ 55.5 ____T-04

(07) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 __ 54.8 ____ (08)

_07 __  BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 __ 54.4 ____T-04

_08 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 __ 52.9 ____ 09

_09 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 __ 52.7 ____ 10

_10 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 __ 50.0 ____ 21 

_11 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 __ 49.6 ____ 08

_12 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 __ 48.8 ____ 13

_13 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 __ 48.7 ____ 23

_14 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 __ 48.5 ____ 19

(T14) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.8 _7.0 _5.1 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0 __ 48.5 ____ (24)

_15 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 __ 48.0 ____ 14

_16 __ STEVE B _______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _7.5 _0.2 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 __ 47.5 ____ 18

_17 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 __ 47.1 ____ 16

_18 __ STEWFOX ______________7.0 _9.4 _4.0 _8.9 _8.2 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _ ---- __ 46.3 ____ 11

_19 __ MAPANTZ ______________ 5.2 _6.8 _1.9 _4.3 _6.4 _8.8 _4.1 _8.6 _ ---- __ 46.1 ____ 12

_20 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 __ 46.0 ____ 25

 

_21 __ PEGG24 _______________ 8.0 _5.9 _0.7 _6.2 _7.5 _1.2 _5.3 _10.0 _0.2 __ 45.0 ____ 15

(22) _ average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 __ 44.8 ____ (T29)

_22 __ DKEANE3 ______________ 7.2 _7.6 _5.2 _9.1 _3.6 _2.8 _2.0 _6.5 _ ---- __ 44.0 ____ 17

_23 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 __ 43.8 ____ 20

_24 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 1.0 _1.2 _9.1 _4.8 _7.5 _7.8 _1.0 _2.0 _7.5 __ 41.9 ____ 33

_25 __ STATIONARY FRONT _____ 1.2 _4.9 _6.4 _2.6 _0.7 _5.3 _7.4 _3.6 _9.4 __ 41.5 ____ 39

_26 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 __ 41.2 ____ 34

_27 __ WEATHER-HISTORY ______0.6 _3.3 _5.9 _2.6 _9.2 _6.8 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 __ 40.9 ____ 26

_28 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _---- __ 40.7 ____ 22

_29 __ ROGER J SMITH _________ 0.2 _1.8 _8.1 _9.8 _2.7 _5.5 _5.5 _3.0 _3.8 __ 40.4 ____ 27

_30 __ DAMI ___________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0 _6.8 _5.2 __ 40.1 ____ 31

_31 __ RELATIVISTIC ___________8.4 _2.2 _7.4 _1.2 _4.7 _0.4 _0.6 _6.3 _8.7 __ 39.9 ____ 40

_32 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ___ ---- _ ---- _3.5 _8.8 _10.0_2.6 _7.6 _4.7 _1.6 __ 38.8 ____ 24

_33 __ JEFF C _________________7.8 _4.1 _1.1 _3.3 _3.1 _4.3 _5.3 _4.5 _4.3 __ 37.8 ____ 36

_34 __ DOCTOR32 _____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.4 _5.0 _3.1 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _1.2 __ 37.3 ____ 28

_35 __ DANIEL* ________________3.8 _5.9 _4.7 _4.3 _3.4 _6.3 _---- _4.9 _3.1 __ 36.4 ____ 37

_36 __ THE_PIT ________________6.0 _1.2 _7.4 _1.4 _3.8 _8.8 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 __ 36.2 ____ 30

_37 __ SIMSHADY ______________8.2 _8.4 _0.4 _7.2 _9.8 _1.8 _--- _ ---- _---- __ 35.8 ____ 29

_38 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _ ---- _ 2.1 _6.9 _6.4 _6.8 _9.8 _2.6 _---- __ 34.6 ____ 32

_39 __ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 9.4 _0.2 _7.4 _1.7 _ ---- _8.8 _6.3 _---- _---- __ 33.8 ____ 35

_40 __ WEATHER 26 ___________ ---- _ 4.7 _4.3 _9.5 _0.9 _4.7 _8.2 _0.4 _0.9 __ 33.6 ____ 38

_41 __ CHRIS. R ______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.3 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _---- __ 31.0 ____ 41

_42 __ VIRTUALSPHERE _______ 4.4 _1.0 _8.1 _1.6 _9.8 _3.0 _1.8 _0.6 _---- __ 30.3 ____ 42

_43 __ VIZZY2004 _____________ 9.0 _9.0 _8.9 _2.6 _0.5 _ ---  _---- _---- _---- __ 30.0 ____ 43

_44 __ ALEXISJ9 _______________2.8 _5.5 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.3 _9.6 __ 28.3 ____ 48

_45 _THUNDERYWINTRYSHOWERS 8.6_--- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- __24.6 ____ 44

_46 _ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER_3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _9.8 _ ----_3.3 _---- _ ---- __ 22.4 ____ 45

_47 __ ED STONE _____________ 4.4 _1.6 _5.3 _1.2 _1.1 _ --- _ 1.2 _1.0 _6.2 __ 22.0 ____ 49

_48 __ TJM14 ________________  ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.3 _5.9 _1.8 _8.4 __ 21.4 ____ 53

_49 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ____---- _---- _---- _0.7 _8.6 _---- _ ---- _5.3 _6.6 __21.2 ____ 51

_50 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ____ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.7 _ 9.0 _5.7 _0.4 __ 20.8 ____ 46

_51 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST __ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _6.9 __ 19.7 ____ 54

_52 __ B87 ___________________  ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _9.2_10.0 _---- _---- __ 19.2 ____ 47

_53 __ GREAT PLUM ___________---- _---- _7.4 _7.4 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 14.8 ____ 50

_54 __ ROBBIE GARRETT _______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _0.8 _4.3 _---- _8.9 __14.0 ____T-70

_55 __ LEO97T ________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _8.2 _5.4 __ 13.6 ____ 60

_56 __ FOZFOSTER ____________---- _5.3 _4.3 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.4 ____ 52

_57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN ________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 12.4 ____ 55

_58 __ EMMETT GARLAND______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ 3.6 _8.0 __11.6 ____ 76

_59 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ____ 9.6 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _1.4 _---- __ 11.0 ____ 56

_60 __ SEASONALITY __________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- __ 10.0 ____ 57

_61 __ NORTHWEST SNOW _____ ---- _---- __9.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- __ 9.5 ____ 58

_62 __ LETTERBOXER __________---- _ ---- _3.6 _ ---- _4.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 8.5 ____ 59

_63 __ IAPENNELL _____________ ---- _6.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- __ 8.1 ____ 61

_64 __ MP-R __________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- __ 7.8 ____ 62

T65 __ BOOFERKING ___________ 3.0 _4.7 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-63

T65 __ CORAM _________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-63

_67 __ V FOR VERY COLD _______ 7.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.6 ____ 65

_68 __ LF1002 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _7.0 _ ---- _ ----_---- __ 7.0 ____ 66

_69 __ RICEY076 ______________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 6.9 ____ 67

_70__ MOORLANDER __________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.5 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 6.3 ____ 68

T71 __ JAMES M _______________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 5.9 ____ 69

T71 __ POLAR MARITIME _______ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _----_ ---- _ ----_ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ ----

_73 __ CASTELLANUS80 _______ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 5.1 ____T-70

T74 __ ROSS90 _______________ ---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 5.0 ____T-72

T74 __ BACKTRACK____________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 5.0 ____T-72

_76 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ___---- _---- _4.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 4.5 ____ 74

_77 _ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM_----_----_----_4.3_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 4.3 ____ 75

_78 __ MARK NEAL ____________---- _---- _---- _2.9 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.9 ____ 77

_79 __ MATT TARRANT _________---- _---- _---- _2.8 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.8 ____ 78

T80 __ MORE SNOW ___________2.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-79

T80 __ COLDEST WINTER ______ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.4 _---- _---- _2.2 _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-79

T80 __ DUNCAN McALISTER_____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ 2.6 _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-79

_83 __ STEVE MURR ___________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _ 2.3 ___ 2.3 ____ ----

T84 __ SKY FULL ______________---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 1.2 ____T-82

T84 __ 38.5*C _________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- __ 1.2 ____T-82

T86 __ WEIRPIG ______________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 0.4 ____T-84

T86 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ____ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 __ 0.4 ____T-84

_88 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.2 ____ 86

_89 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ____ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- __ 0.0 ____ 87

_____________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)  

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

August 2018 EWP scoring (Hadley version, 75.8 mm)

 

RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score

 

_ (1) _average 1988-2017 __________ 75.9 ____ +0.1 ___ 10.0

__ 1 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________76.0 ____ +0.2 ___ 10.0

_T 2 __ DR(S)NO, SYED2878 _________75.0 ____ --0.8 ____ 9.8 each

__ 4 __ ALEXISJ9 __________________ 74.0 ____ --1.8 ____ 9.4

__ 5 __ TJM14 _____________________ 78.0 ____ +2.2 ____ 9.1

_ (6) __ average 1981-2010 __________ 73.0 ____ --2.8 ____ 9.0

__ 6 __ DON ______________________ 70.0 ____ --5.8 ____ 8.9

__ 7 __ DAVID SNOW _______________70.0 ____ --5.8 ____ 8.7 (8.9 - 0.2) (+1d late)

__ 8 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 69.0 ____ --6.8 ____ 8.4

__ 9 __ SINGULARITY ______________ 84.0 ____ +8.2____ 8.2

_ 10 __ DAVEHSUG ________________ 84.0 ____ +8.2____ 8.0 (8.2 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_ 11 __ LET IT SNOW! ______________ 85.0 ____ +9.2____ 7.7

_ 12 __ RELATIVISTIC ______________66.0 ____ --9.8 ____ 7.5

_ 13 __ CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN ____ 64.8 ____--11.0____ 7.3

_T14 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST _____87.0 ____+11.2____ 6.8 (7.0 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T14 __ EMMETT GARLAND _________62.0 ____--13.8____ 6.8

_T16 __JONBOY __________________ 95.0 ____+19.2 ____ 6.4 (6.6 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T16 __CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ______ 56.0 ____--19.8____ 6.4

_ 18 __ NORRANCE _______________ 55.0 ____--20.8____ 6.2

_ 19 __ EDSTONE _________________ 90.0 ____+14.2____ 5.9

_ 20 __ POLAR MARITIME __________ 52.0 ____--23.8____ 5.7

_ 21 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________51.0 ____--24.8____ 5.4

_ (22) _ consensus ________________ 50.5 ____--25.3____ 5.3

_T22 __ LEO97T, REEF, J10 _________ 50.0 ____--25.8____ 5.2 each

_ 25 __ DAMI _____________________ 50.0 ____--25.8____ 5.0 (5.2 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_ 26 __ JEFF C ___________________ 48.0 ____--27.8____ 4.3

_ 27 _  WEATHER-HISTORY _________47.0 ____--28.8____ 4.1

_T28 __ ROGER J SMITH, STEVE B __ 46.0 ____--29.8____ 3.8 each

_ 30 __ BORN FROM THE VOID ______45.0 ____--30.8____ 3.3

_ 31 __ DANIEL* ___________________45.0 ____--30.8____ 3.1 (3.3 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T32__ GODBER.1 _________________44.0 ____--31.8____ 2.8 (3.0 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T32__ RADIATING DENDRITE _______43.0 ____--32.8____ 2.8

_ 34 __ MULZY ____________________42.0 ____--33.8____ 2.5

_ 35 __ STEVE MURR ______________ 40.0 ____--35.8____ 2.3

_ 36 __ WEATHER26 ______________112.0 ____ +36.2 ____ 2.1

_ 37 __ POLAR GAEL ______________ 38.5 ____--37.3____ 1.8

_ 38 __ SEASIDE60 ________________ 37.0 ____--38.8____ 1.6

_ 39 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ______ 36.8 ____--39.0____ 1.4

_T40 __DOCTOR32 ________________ 35.0 ____--40.8 ____ 0.9 (1.1 - 0.2) (+1d late)

_T41 __BOBD29 ___________________33.0 ____--42.8 ____ 0.9

_ 42 __ THE PIT ___________________30.0 ____--45.8 ____ 0.7

_ 43 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ________26.0 ____--49.8____ 0.4

_ 44 __ PEGG24 ___________________25.0 ____--50.8____ 0.2

_ 45 __ LETTUCING GUTTED _______200.0 ___+124.2____ 0.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

37 on time forecasts, plus 8 marked one day late, 45 in total ... table of forecasts had error in that count.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to July 2018) -- Hadley scoring

 Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug__TOTALS___NCIC rank

 ____________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC

_01 __ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 _7.0 _9.1 _7.7 _5.6 _8.4 _5.7 _9.2 _8.2 __ 66.1 _ 66.9 ___ 01

_02 __ DON _____________________ 1.8 _5.7 _8.4 _8.3 _9.8 _4.7 _6.8 _6.5 _8.9 __ 60.9 _ 59.8 ___ 02

_03 __ JONBOY __________________8.8 _7.4 _6.7_10.0_9.4 _3.9 _0.6 _6.5 _6.4 __ 59.7 _ 55.5 ___ 06

_04 __ POLAR GAEL ______________4.6 _9.0 _9.5 _2.6 _6.9 _9.8 _8.4 _5.5 _1.8 __ 58.1 _ 59.0 ___ 03

_05 __CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _3.7_4.1 _9.2 _7.8 _7.3 __ 57.3 _ 58.9 ___ 04

_06 __  J10 ______________________4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _7.7 _9.6 _4.3 _ 8.6 _5.2 __ 56.6 _ 58.3 ___ 05

_(07) _ consensus ________________ 5.2 _5.9 _5.4 _5.7_6.5 _5.9 _5.3 _8.8 _5.3 __ 54.0 _ 54.8 ___ (07)

_07 __  BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _6.3 _9.6 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 __ 53.8 _ 54.4 ___ 07

_08 __ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 _2.2 _9.6 _9.3 _4.7_10.0_1.2 _3.4 _6.2 __ 53.6 _ 52.9 ___ 08

_09 __ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 _4.3 _5.2 _8.8_10.0_5.7 _5.9 _4.3 _1.6 __ 51.6 _ 49.4 ___ 11

_10 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 _3.3 _9.1 _9.6 _3.2 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.4 __ 50.9 _ 52.7 ___ 09

_11 __ STEVE B __________________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _9.4 _0.2 _5.3 _ 2.8 _3.8 __ 49.4 _ 47.5 ___ 16

_12 __ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 _8.4 _1.2 _6.2 _5.6 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.8 __ 49.3 _ 50.0 ___ 10

_13 __ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8_10.0_3.8_5.0 _3.2 _7.0 _3.2 _1.8 _9.8 __ 48.6 _ 46.0 ___ 20

_14 __ REEF _____________________ 8.6 _5.5 _2.8 _3.8 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _9.8 _5.2 __ 48.5 _ 48.5 ___ 14

(15) __ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 _6.6 _5.5 _5.0 _2.3 _7.3 _3.2 _1.7 _9.0 __ 48.2 _ 48.5 ___(T14)

_15 __ RADIATING DENDRITE _______2.0 _2.4 _8.9 _4.5 _1.8 _7.0 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 __ 48.0 _ 48.8 ___ 12

_16 __ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 _3.3 _9.5 _5.7 _4.7 _2.2 _7.0 _4.3 _8.7 __ 47.6 _ 48.7 ___ 13

_17 __ MULZY ____________________7.0 _8.8 _7.1 _0.9 _1.6 _7.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 __ 47.4 _ 48.0 ___ 15

(18) _ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 _8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.2 _7.3 _2.4 _1.1_10.0 __ 46.3 _ 44.8 ___ 22

_18 __ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 _6.3 _1.9 _4.3 _5.6 _9.2 _4.3 _8.6 _---- __ 45.4 _ 46.1 ___ 19

_19 __ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 _9.6 _4.0 _8.9 _6.9 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _---- __ 45.2 _ 46.3 ___ 18

_T20__GODBER.1 _________________2.4 _7.2 _5.9 _3.5 _6.3 _8.6 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 __ 44.7 _ 47.1 ___ 17

_T20__DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 _7.8 _5.6 _9.1 _3.5 _2.8 _2.0 _6.7 _ ---- __ 44.7 _ 44.0 ___ 22

_22 __ BOBD29___________________ 3.2 _6.6 _5.0 _5.9 _8.4 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _0.9 __ 44.5 _ 43.8 ___ 23

_23 __ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 _1.2_10.0_4.8 _9.4 _7.0 _1.0 _2.0 _8.0 __ 44.4 _ 41.9 ___ 24

_24 __ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 _5.1 _0.7 _6.2 _6.3 _1.2 _5.3 _9.8 _0.2 __ 44.0 _ 45.0 ___ 21

_25 __ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- _---- _7.9 _6.5 _7.5 _3.7 _9.6 _0.8 _7.7 __ 43.7 _ 41.2 ___ 26

_T26__WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 _3.3 _6.1 _2.6 _9.6 _7.6 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 __ 42.3 _ 40.9___ 27

_T26__RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 _2.2 _8.4 _1.2 _7.5 _0.4 _0.6 _6.5 _7.5 __ 42.3 _ 39.9 ___ 31

_28 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 _4.7 _6.5 _2.6 _0.7 _5.9 _7.4 _3.4 _8.4 __ 40.8 _ 41.5 ___ 25

_29 __ DAMI ______________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _6.8 _5.0 __ 40.5 _ 40.1 ___ 30

_30 __ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 _9.6 _2.4 _7.1 _2.3 _5.1 _6.5 _5.9 _---- __ 40.3 _ 40.7 ___ 28

_31 __ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 _1.8 _6.7 _9.8 _3.9 _3.5 _5.5 _3.5 _3.8 __ 38.7 _ 40.4 ___ 29

_32 __ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 _4.9 _1.1 _3.3 _2.7 _4.7 _5.3 _4.7_4.3 __ 38.6 _ 37.8 ___ 33

_33 __ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 _1.0 _8.4 _1.4 _3.4 _9.2 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 __ 37.0 _ 36.2 ___ 36

_34 __ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 _3.9 _6.7 _5.0 _2.7 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _0.9 __ 36.9 _ 37.3 ___ 34

_35 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- _---- _3.5 _8.8 _8.4 _2.6 _7.6 _4.5 _1.4 __ 36.8 _ 38.8 ___ 32

_36 __ SIMSHADY _________________ 7.8 _7.6 _0.4 _7.2 _9.4 _1.8 _---- _---- _---- __ 36.2 _ 35.8 ___ 37

_37 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- _---- _2.1 _6.9 _5.6 _7.6 _9.8 _2.6 _---- __ 34.6 _ 34.6 ___ 38

T38 __ TIMMYTOUR ______________ 10.0 _0.2 _6.5 _1.7 _---- _9.2 _6.3 _---- _---- __ 33.9 _ 33.8 ___ 39

T38 __ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 _5.1 _4.9 _4.3 _5.8 _5.1 _ ---- _4.9 _3.1 __ 37.0 _ 36.4 ___ 35

_40  __ WEATHER 26 _______________---- _4.5 _4.5 _9.5 _0.9 _5.3 _8.2 _0.4 _2.1 __ 35.4 _ 33.6 ___ 40

_41 __ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.6 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _---- __ 31.3 _ 31.0 ___ 41

_42 __ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 _8.6 _8.8 _2.6 _0.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 29.1 _ 30.0 ___ 43

_43 __ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 _1.2 _6.7 _1.6 _9.4 _3.3 _1.8 _0.6 _---- __ 29.0 _ 30.3 ___ 42

_44 __ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 _6.1 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.1 _9.4 __ 28.5 _ 28.3 ___ 44

_45 _ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS  8.2 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- __ 24.2 _ 24.6 ___ 45

_46 __ TJM14 _____________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 5.9 _5.9 _1.6 _9.1 __ 22.5 _ 21.4 ___ 48

_47 __ ED STONE __________________4.4 _1.6 _4.2 _1.2 _2.1 _---- _1.2 _1.0 _5.9 __ 21.6 _ 22.0 ___ 47

_48 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.3 _9.0 _5.7 _0.4 __ 21.4 _ 20.8 ___ 50

_49 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 _0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _8.0 _---- _3.3 _---- _---- __ 20.6 _ 22.4 ___ 46

_50 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- _---- _---- _0.5 _7.1 _---- _----_5.3 _6.4 __ 19.3 _ 21.2 ___ 49

_51 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _6.8 __ 18.4 __19.7 ___ 51

_52 __ B87 _______________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 7.8_10.0_---- _---- __ 17.8 _ 19.2 ___ 52

_53 __ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- _---- _8.4 _7.4 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 15.8 _ 14.8 ___ 53

_54 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 0.8 _4.3 _----_10.0 __15.1 __14.0 ___ 54

_55 __ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- _5.5 _4.5 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.8 _ 13.4 ___ 56

_56 __ LEO97T_____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 8.2 _5.2 __13.4 _ 13.6 ___ 55

_57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 _ 12.4 ___ 57

_58 __ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.4 _---- __ 11.2 _ 11.0 ___ 59

_59 __ EMMETT GARLAND___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.4 _ 6.8 ___10.2 _11.6 ___ 58

_60 __ SEASONALITY _______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- __ 10.0 _ 10.0 ___ 60

_61 __ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- ___ 9.0 __ 7.6 ___ 67

_62 __ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- _---- _8.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 8.9 __ 9.5 ___ 61

_63 __ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- _---- _3.6 _---- _ 4.3 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.9 __ 8.5 ___ 62

_64 __ MP-R ______________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- ___ 7.8 __ 7.8 ___ 64

T65 __ CORAM _____________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 7.7 __T-65

T65 __ IAPENNELL __________________---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 8.1 ___ 63

_67 __ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 _4.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.5 __ 7.7 __T-65

_68 __ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.9 __ 6.9 ___ 69

_69__ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.2 __ 6.3 ___ 70

_70 __ LF1002 ______________________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.1 _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.1 __ 7.0 ___ 68

_71 __ JAMES M ____________________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.9 __ 5.9 __T-71

_72 __ POLAR MARITIME ____________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _5.7 ___ 5.7 __ 5.9 __T-71

_73 __ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- _---- _5.4 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.4 __ 5.0 __T-74

_74 __ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___ 73

_75 __ BACKTRACK_________________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.0 __ 5.0 __T-74

_76 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.7 __ 4.5 ___76

_77 __ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- _---- _---- _4.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.3 __ 4.3 ___77

_78 __ MARK NEAL _________________---- _---- _---- _ 2.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.9 __ 2.9 ___78

_79 __ MATT TARRANT ______________---- _---- _---- _ 2.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 ___79

T80 __ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 _ --- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-80

T80 __ DUNCAN McALISTER___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-80

_82 __ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.2 _---- _---- _ 2.2 _---- _ ---- ___ 2.4 __ 2.6 __T-80

_83 __ STEVE MURR _______________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 2.3 ___ 2.3 __ 2.3 ___ 83

T84 __ SKY FULL ___________________---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-84

T84 __ 38*5 C _______________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-84

_86 __ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.7 _0.0 _0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.2 _0.0 ___ 0.9 __ 0.4 __T-86

_87 __ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 0.4 __ 0.4 __T-86

_88 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- ___ 0.2 __ 0.2 ___ 88

_89 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _ ---- _----_ 0.0 _ ---- ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 89

__________________________________________________________________________________

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

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