CET Competition - the scores ongoing

[stewfox]

where are the results published ?

 

[The PIT]

Links I'm afraid aren't links can we have links to the spreadsheets pdfs???

[J10]

Here are the Final CET Scores for November 2015, these are also the final scores for the 2015-16 competition.

November 2015 - 2015/16 Final Scores

On 01/12/2015 at 8:20 PM, J10 said:

Scores are now ready for update

Monthly
As previously mentioned this was Roger J smith, getting it spot on. Feb1991blizzard was 2nd 0.2c out, with Timmytour and AtlanticFlamethrower both 0.3c

Seasonal
Gael_Force kept the lead from last month, with Roger J Smith up to 2nd, and Stationary Front 3rd.

Overall
The overall winner was BornFromTheVoid
with Weather26 in 2nd
and DAVID SNOW 3rd.

Thanks to all who competed during the past year.

Nov 2015 CET.xlsx
Nov 2015 CET.pdf

The figures are shown here as normal, note that the Excel file is now smaller and is in the newer Excel 2007 format.
Any problems with the scores please let me know.

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[J10]

December 2015 Scores
Now that 9.7c has been confirmed by the Met Office.I can put the scores up, with the revised scoring system. (which is explained in more detail in the Rules thread.)

However the changes are made to :-
1. Reflect total scores more than average scores.
2. Better reward those who have some very good punts and some bad ones, rather than those who are say always say 0.7c out, but never get any spot on.
3. Change the accuracy system to give extra to those who are closer in a month like this, as opposed to a "normal month" when everyone is within 1.0c
4. Finally to give a standardised top score of 500, to try to make the scores mean something a bit more concrete.
I will continue to do the old scoring method behind the scenes, to see if there is much difference in the methods.

Excel (2007) format -> Dec 2015 cet New.xlsx
PDF  Format -> Dec 2015 cet New.pdf

Scores the Top 3 in all categories are.
1. IHaveNoTrueFriendsNow! (formerly Craig Evans) who was 0.7c under
2. Roger J Smith who was 2.3c under
3. March Blizzard who was 2.5c under

Stats Zone
In terms of statistical analysis, late entrants did better, as they were able to see that December was looking a mild month.
This can be seen with a correlation of - 0.29 and that the later quartiles all did far better than the first quartile entries.

Dec 2015 cet New.pdf
Dec 2015 cet New.xlsx

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[J10]

January 16  - Scores
This month was much closer to normal (compared to December), and as a result 3 players got it spot on.
Don, Evening thunder and Woollymummy

In the Seasonal and the Overall Comp, the top 3 is AderynCoch, Don and Evening thunder.

These are the corrected sheets with the penalty points corrected and also showing Craig Evans scores correctly.

PDF -> Jan 2016 CET New.pdf
Excel (2007) Jan 2016 CET New.xlsx

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[J10]

February 16 - Scores and Winter 2015/16 Final Results

With the CET confirmed at 4.9c,

Monthly -> jvenge, ditch and Evening thunder all got it spot on.

Seasonal -> The winner of this comp was Evening thunder who got both January and February 16 correct.
BlueSkies_do_I_see and BornFromTheVoid were 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Overall-> The current 1-2-3 is the same as the Seasonal result, Evening thunder (1st) BlueSkies_do_I_see (2nd) and BornFromTheVoid (3rd)

Stats -> Later entries did better with a correlation of -0.31.

Reports ->
PDF File -> Feb 2016 CET New.pdf
Excel File -> Feb 2016 CET New.xlsx

in the event of any errors, or if you changed your entry name, and I have not picked this up, please let me know.

Thanks again to Roger for helping compile the figures.

Edited March 28, 2016 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts and averages, extremes

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)
 

14.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... BOBD29 ... ... ... ... ---CET for 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)---

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, most recent was 2009)
 

9.8 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

9.7 ... POLAR GAEL, MARK4

9.5 ... DR HOSKING

9.4 ... BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE

9.2 ...MR MAUNDER
9.1 ... average for 2001-15
9.0 ... GEOFF.W, EASY-OASY ... ...  ---average for 14 yrs 1862-1875 and 2015 CET---

8.9 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, CORRIGAN87, REEF, MARCH, SYED2878

8.8 ... PEGG24, DITCH, BORN FROM THE VOID, MULZY

8.7 ... STEF, STATIONARY FRONT, SINGULARITY ... ... ... ... ---average for 1986-2015---
8.6 ...STEVE.B

8.5 ... STARGAZER, TIMMYTOUR, DR(S)NO, SUMMER BLIZZARD ... ... ... ... ---average for 1981-2010---
8.4 ... WEATHER26, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, JONBOY, DAMIANSLAW, GAEL_FORCE

8.3 ... CONGLETON HEAT, COSTA DEL FAL, STEWFOX, NORRANCE, DON

8.2 ... DEEP SNOW, SUMMER SUN, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER,  CHRIS BELL-NOT.THE.WEATHERMAN,

8.1 ... MAPANTZ, RAVELIN, MAN WITH BEARD. MARK BAYLEY, DAVEHSUG ... ...  ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  ---average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)---
8.0 ... DANCERWITHWINGS, MIDLANDS ICE AGE ... ... ... ---average for 19th century 1801-1900---

7.9 ... COLDEST WINTER, ALEXISJ9, MARCH BLIZZARD ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---average for all data 1659-2015, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800---

7.8 ... I.REMEMBER.ATLANTIC.252, DAVID SNOW

7.7 ... ED STONE, JEFF.C, SEABREEZE86, GODBER 1

7.6 ... SUNDOG

7.5 ... SIMSHADY, ADERYN COCH  ... ... ... ... ---2013 CET---
7.4 ... DANIEL*, THE_PIT, BARRY

7.3 ... ROGER J SMITH ... ... ... ... ---average for 1659-1700---
7.2 ...

7.1 ... WEATHER-HISTORY

7.0 ...

6.0 to 6.9 ...
5.9 ...

5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
5.7,5.6 ...

5.5 ... RELATIVISTIC STING JET

5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

-0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
-0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

___________________________________________________________________

66 entries to deadline (late entries to be added) ... median value is 8.3 C.

[J10]

Score update based on 5.8c being confirmed.

Monthly (and Seasonal) - 5 players got it spot on
seaside 60, BlueSkies_do_I_see, feb1991blizzard, J10 and Mr Maunder. These make the 1-5 positions in the Spring 2016 comp.

Overall - The top 3 is
BlueSkies_do_I_see, Evening thunder and Don

After December caught (nearly) everyone out, the accuracy in the estimates in the past 3 months has been very impressive.

Stats Zone -
The average Entry was 5.7c, so only 0.1c out compared to the Actual.

These was a negative correlation between entry time and accuracy (-0.26) and the later quartiles did better than the first quartile of entries, suggesting this month that later entries were more accurate.

I have slightly changed the format of the spreadsheets this month, in an effort to make them cleaner.

PDF Mar 2016 CET New.pdf
XLSX Mar 2016 CET New.xlsx

 

Edited April 2, 2016 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Five late entries to add (can't edit my table, sorry) ...

(one day late)

9.1 ... J-10

8.0 ... Evening thunder

7.8 ... seaside 60

7.7 ... crucible72

and two days late

7.6 ... Duncan McAlister

TOTAL of 71 FORECASTS __ MEDIAN VALUE 8.3 C

[Roger J Smith]

21.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

17.5 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

15.1 ... ... ... ... ... ...warmest May 1833
13.9 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (+1d) ... ... ... ... ...second warmest May 1848
13.8 ... BARRY (+1d) ... ... ... ... ... tied third warmest Mays 1758, 1788
13.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest May 1808
13.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... tied sixth warmest Mays 1727, 1992
13.5 ...

13.4 ...

13.3 ... SINGULARITY

13.2 ...

13.1 ... DAMI (+1d)

13.0 ... POLAR GAEL, DUNCAN McALISTER, DANIEL* (+1d)

12.9 ... CONGLETON HEAT

12.8 ... WILLIAM GRIMSLEY, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE (+1d), MARK BAYLEY (+1d)

12.7 ... ROGER J SMITH, CRUCIBLE72

12.6 ... DAVID SNOW

12.5 ... EVENING THUNDER

12.4 ... REEF, MAN WITH BEARD, DAVEHSUG, SEASIDE 60 (+1d)

12.3 ... PAUL, DON (+1d)

12.2 ... MARCH, MULZY, GREAT PLUM ... ... ... ... ... ---2014 CET---

12.1 ... CORRIGAN87

12.0 ... GEOFF.W, STEF, EASY-OASY, J10, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE (+1d), TIMMYTOUR (+1d)

11.9 ... SUMMER SUN, MARK4, SEABREEZE86, BORN FROM THE VOID, NORRANCE, DOCTOR 32 (+1d)

11.8 ... STEVE.B, STATIONARY FRONT, STEWFOX, JONBOY (+1d) ... ... ... ... ... ---2001-2015 average---

11.7 ... ED STONE ... ... ... ... ... ---1981-2010 and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET---

11.6 ... BOB.D29, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, MR MAUNDER, THE PIT

11.5 ... STORMING16, HARVE, SUNDOG, DR(S)NO, WEATHER-HISTORY

11.4 ... CHRISBELL-NOT-THEWEATHERMAN, DR HOSKING ... ... ... ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... COSTA DEL FAL, ADERYN COCH ... ... ... ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... MAPANTZ, DANCERWITHWINGS, SUMMER BLIZZARD, CARL46WREXHAM (+1d) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2015 average of all data

11.1 ...RAVELIN, SHUGGEE  ... ... ... ... ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ... SIMSHADY, MARCH BLIZZARD

10.9 ... STARGAZER, DAMIANSLAW, GAEL_FORCE

10.8 ... DEEP SNOW, JEFF.C, PAUL T ... ... ... ... --- 2015 CET ---

10.7 ... ALEXISJ9 ... ... ... ... ...  1659-1700 average

10.6 ...

10.5 ... SYED2878, GODBER 1

10.4 .. I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ... ... ... ... ... ... .... ---2013 CET---

10.3 ...

10.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE

10.1 ... IAN R

10.0 ...

 9.9 ... PEGG24, COLDEST WINTER

 9.8 ...

 9.7 ...

 9.6 ... WEATHER26

 9.1 ... RELATIVISTIC STING JET ... ... ... ... ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest Mays
8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

____________________________________________________

80 entries, 14 of them one day late (+1d beside names) ... median forecast is 11.8 C.

[J10]

Thanks Roger for updating the entries and for your performance this year.

 

2 minutes ago, J10 said:

Scores

Monthly -> As previously mentioned, AderynCoch and simshady both got it spot on.

Seasonal -> The top 3 is  Roger J Smith, The PIT and seaside 60, while seaside 60 would be in the lead without the 10pt late entry penalty this month.

Overall -> The top 3 is Roger J Smith, Don and Evening thunder, with Evening thunder having 20pts deducted due to late entries.

Documents ->

April 2016 CET New.xlsx

April 2016 CET New.pdf

 

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks, J10, meanwhile with reference to the table of entries for May a couple of posts back, here's two later ones (both three days late I think) ...

Ditch 12.3

Iapennell 10.6

So that's now 82 forecasts and median remains 11.8 C.

[Roger J Smith]

June 2016 -- Table of forecasts and CET data

23.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for last nine days in June 1976

20.5 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

19.4 ... CRUCIBLE72

18.6 ... DOCTOR32

18.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.6 ... PIXEL

17.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1976 (5th warmest)

16.9 ...

16.8 ...

16.7 ...

16.6 ...

16.5 ... PROLONGED SNOW LOVER

16.4 ...

16.3 ... STEF

16.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, JONBOY, CHRIS.R

16.1 ... DAMI

16.0 ... ROGER J SMITH

15.9 ... CHRISBELL-NOT-THEWEATHERMAN

15.8 ... SUNDOG, B87, ADERYN.COCH

15.7 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, MAPANTZ, STARGAZER, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

15.6 ... DAMIANSLAW, DEEPSNOW, MATTHEW WILSON

15.5 ... MARK BAYLEY, ALEXISJ9, STATIONARY FRONT

15.4 ... WEATHER-HISTORY, COSTA DEL FAL

15.3 ... STEVE.B, MAN WITH BEARD, DR HOSKING, DANCERWITHWINGS

15.2 ... GEOFF.W, CONGLETON HEAT, SUMMER SUN, PAUL, BORNFROMTHEVOID,

... ... ... ... ... DR(S)NO, SYED2878, SEASIDE 60, MARCH, NORRANCE

15.1 ... ED STONE, EASY-OASY, BLUESKIES_DO_I_SEE, DUNCAN McALISTER,

... ... ... ... ... ... LET.IT.SNOW ! .. DAVID SNOW... ... ... ... ... CET 2014

15.0 ... POLAR GAEL, THE PIT, SUMMER BLIZZARD, SINGULARITY, MIDLANDS ICE AGE (said 14.98)

14.9 ... PEGG24, SEABREEZE86, DAVEHSUG, MR MAUNDER, GAEL_FORCE, GREAT PLUM

14.8 ... MARK.4, J.10, MULZY

14.7 ... RAVELIN, MARCH BLIZZARD, GODBER.1 ... ... ... ... average for 2001-2015

14.6 ... IAPENNELL, I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, STORMING15

14.5 ...  NIGERIAN PRINCE, MIKE MEEHAN ... ... ... ... average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800

14.4 ... WEATHER26, WISHING.FOR.SNOW, JEFF.C

14.3 ... SIMSHADY, CARL46WREXHAM, STEWFOX ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for all years 1659-2015, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... .TIMMYTOUR .. ... ... ... ... average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... REEF ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... CHEESE (said 14.0-14.5) ... ... ... ... ... CET 2015

13.8 ... CORRIGAN87

13.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... CET 2013

13.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... CET 2012

12.2 ... WEATHER GURU

12.1 ... RELATIVISTIC

11.8 ... ... ... ... ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... ... ... ... ... 1675 (coldest June)

 7.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

_______________________________________________________________________

80 entries on time, not counting Cheese who gave a range (14.0-14.5).

The median (and mode with ten in agreement) is 15.2 and half the field is clustered within 0.3 of the median.

Just a few foresee a cool month but two are running colder than most recent Junes.

Three have gone for a new record high and a fourth predicts that 2016 will replace 1826 in third place overall.

I shall try to edit in any late forecasts but may have to list them separately in another post.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Prevous post could not be edited, so please add these four forecasts ...

15.8 ... DANIEL* (+3d)

15.6 ... BOBD.29 (+1d)

14.6 ... DON (+1d)

14.5 ... DELKA (+1d)

Now up to 84 forecasts plus the Cheese estimated range, and median remains 15.2.

Interesting to note with the four record-breaking forecasts noted in the main table above, the fifth highest forecast (16.5) would result in 2016 being the tenth warmest June just ahead of 1940 and 1970

Edited June 3, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

17 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Prevous post could not be edited, so please add these four forecasts ...

15.8 ... DANIEL* (+3d)

15.6 ... BOBD.29 (+1d)

14.6 ... DON (+1d)

14.5 ... DELKA (+1d)

Now up to 84 forecasts plus the Cheese estimated range, and median remains 15.2.

Interesting to note with the four record-breaking forecasts noted in the main table above, the fifth highest forecast (16.5) would result in 2016 being the tenth warmest June just ahead of 1940 and 1970

Sorry to sound pedantic, but my guess was 14.7C.  Thanks

[Roger J Smith]

That should have been

14.7 ... Don (+1d)

14.6 ... Delka (+1d)

(can't edit that post now either)

[Roger J Smith]

July 2016 CET Forecasts -- Table of entries and data

 

25.2 ... ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

22.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

19.7 ... ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

18.8 ... ... ... 1783 (3rd warmest)

18.7 ... ... ... ... 1976, 1852 (tied 4th warmest)

18.6 ... ... ... ... 1995 (6th warmest)

18.3 ... ... ... ... 2013 mean (tied 9th warmest)

17.8 ... TIMMYTOUR

17.7 ... ... ... ... 2014 mean (tied 31st warmest)

17.3-17.6 ...

17.2 ... STEVE.B

17.1 ... MAPANTZ, ED STONE, CONGLETON HEAT, MARK BAYLEY

17.0 ... SUMMER SUN, MULZY, J10

16.9 ... SUNDOG, SEASIDE60

16.8 ... WEATHER26, VIRTUALSPHERE, MARK4, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER, BORNFROMTHEVOID

16.7 ... DANCERWITHWINGS, SUMMER BLIZZARD ... ... ... average for 1981-2010 and 2001-2015

16.6 ... JEFF.C, THE PIT ... ... ... average for 1986-2015

16.5 ... DR(S)NO, MAN WITH BEARD, SYED2878, DR HOSKING, STATIONARY FRONT

... ... ... ... BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE ... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for 1971-2000

16.4 ... SIMSHADY, DAMIANSLAW, DEEP SNOW, DAVID SNOW, NORRANCE

16.3 ... RAVELIN, SINGULARITY, MARCH BLIZZARD

16,2 ... EASY-OASY, JONBOY, SEABREEZE86

16.1 ... PEGG24, COSTA DEL FAL, STEWFOX

... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ...MATTHEW WILSON, CRUCIBLE72 ... ... ... average for all years 1659-2015

15.9 ... MR MAUNDER, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, GAEL_FORCE ... ... ... 2015 mean

15.8 ... REEF, DAVEHSUG ... ... ... average for 1801-1900

15.7 ... ROGER J SMITH

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... B87, WEATHERGURU14 ... ... ... 2012 mean

15.4 ...

15.3 ... LETITSNOW! , I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252

15.2 ...

15.1 ...

15.0 ... ADERYN COCH

14.7 ... RELATIVISTIC

14.6 ... TERMINAL MORAINE

14.5 ... COLDEST WINTER

14.0 ... ... ... 1965 (tied 11th coldest)

13.6 ... ... ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

_________________________________________________________________

 

57 forecasts on time, median is 16.4 C.

[Roger J Smith]

LATE JULY FORECASTS

(cannot edit my post above, add these nine late forecasts, total is now 66, median remains on 16.4 C)

18.1 ... STEF (+1d although less than 1h)

17.0 ... WILLIAM GRIMSLEY (+2d)

16.6 ... STARGAZER (+1d)

16.5 ... MARCH (+1d) and EVENING THUNDER (+1d)

16.1 ... DON (+3d)

15.9 ... CORRIGAN87 (+2d)

15.5 ... GODBER.1 (+1d)

15.3 ... DANIEL* (+3d)

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts and CET data for August 2016

24.9 ... ... ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

21.5 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

19.2 ... ... ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... ... ... second warmest August, 1997
18.7 ... ... ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... ... ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.4 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

18.3 ... ... ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... ... ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... ... ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ... ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.9 ...

17.8 ...

17.7 ...DANIEL*

17.6 ... GAEL_FORCE

17.5 ... CORRIGAN87

17.4 ...

17.3 ... STEVE B, BOBD29, STATIONARY FRONT (+1d)

17.2 ... ROGER J SMITH, DON

17.1 ... COLDEST WINTER, MARK4

17.0 ... CONGLETON HEAT, DIAGONAL RED LINE

16.9 ... POLAR GAEL, DANCERWITHWINGS, MR MAUNDER (+2d) ... ... ... 2013 mean

16.8 ... IAPENNELL, STEWFOX, THE PIT, DAMIANSLAW, SYED2878, DUNCAN McALISTER,

... ... ... ... DAVEHSUG, EVENING THUNDER

16.7 ... MAPANTZ, MARCH, SEASIDE 60

16.6 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, MAN WITH BEARD, DAVID SNOW, MULZY ... ... ... 2012 mean

16.5 ... JEFF C, COSTA DEL FAL, DR(S)NO, NORRANCE, MARK BAYLEY, J10

16.4 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, STARGAZER, WEATHER-HISTORY, MIDLANDS ICE AGE,

... ... ... ... POLAR MARITIME, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE ... ... ... ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

16.3 ... BARRY, CHEESE, DR HOSKING, DEEP SNOW ... ... ... average of 2001-2015
16.2 ... ED STONE, SUMMER SUN ... ... ... ... average of 1971-2000

16.1 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, BORN FROM THE VOID, SINGULARITY

16.0 ...SIMSHADY, REEF, MARCH BLIZZARD

15.9 ... SUNDOG, ALEXISJ9 ... ... ... ... 2015 mean
15.8 ... GODBER.1 ... ... ... ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.7 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, EASY-OASY

15.6 ... THUNDERSNOW DAYS, JONBOY ... ... ... average of 1659-2015
15.5 ... ADERYN COCH

15.4 ... TIMMYTOUR ... ... ... ... average of 1801-1900
15.3 ... B87

15.2 ... WEATHER26

15.1 ... CRUCIBLE72 ... ... ... average of 1659-1700

15.0 ...

14.9 .. PEGG24 ... ... ... .... 2014 mean
13.7 ... RELATIVISTIC ... ... ... ... ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)
13.5 ... ... ... ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)
13.0 ... ... ... ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)
12.9 ... ... ... ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

________________________________________________________

 

68 on time forecasts, plus one marked (+1d) day late and one (+2d) two days late.

median forecast is 16.5 C. 

sorry SIMSHADY you are now in the table ... 

Edited August 3, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[simshady]

Hi Roger, you've missed me out.   I said 16c for August.

 

Thanks for amending.

Edited August 2, 2016 by simshady

[Roger J Smith]

September 2016 forecasts

 

22.6 ... ... ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

19.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

16.8 ... THE PIT ... ... ... warmest (2006)

16.6 ... ... ... ... second warmest (1729)
16.3 ... ... ... ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.2 ... MARCH BLIZZARD (+1d)

16.1 ... DAMI, CHANGING SKIES

16.0  ... ... ... ... fifth warmest (1795)

15.9 ... THE STIXX, EVENING THUNDER (+2d)

15.8 ... CHRIS.R, SWEATYMAN

15.7 ... DOCTOR32, KENTSPUR, SINGULARITY

15.6 ... THUNDERSNOW.DAYS, THE UNDERWRITER

15.5 ... MAPANTZ, REEF, I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, MAN WITH BEARD

15.4 ... B87, MARCH, STEF,  BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, CORRIGAN87

15.3 ...SKY FULL, VIRTUALSPHERE, MOORLANDER, JONATHAN F..

15.2 ... SUMMER SUN, DEEP SNOW, JONATHAN LANG, SURREY

15.1 ... CONGLETON HEAT, THE MOONMAN, DAMIANSLAW, BORN FROM THE VOID

... ... ... ... ... MR MAUNDER (+1d) ... ... ... ... 2014 CET

15.0 ... ED STONE, DANCERWITHWINGS, NORRANCE, GAEL FORCE, MIDLANDS ICE AGE

... ... ... ... ADERYN COCH (+1d)

14.9 ... IAPENNELL, STEVE.B, STATIONARY FRONT, STEWFOX, DR HOSKING, DAVID SNOW

14.8 ... RAVELIN, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, EASY-OASY, SUNDOG, PAUL, MARK4

... ... ... ... DUNCAN McALISTER

14.7 ... WEATHER26, SEASIDE 60, JEFF.C, COSTA DEL FAL, SYED2878, COLDEST WINTER

... ... ... ... GODBER.1 (+1d)

14.6 ... PEGG24, DAVEHSUG, MARK BAYLEY, MULZY

14.5 ... SIMSHADY, BOBD29, DR(S)NO, SUMMER BLIZZARD

... ... ... ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER, J10

14.4 ... ROGER J SMITH, STARGAZER, JONBOY

14.3 ... CRUCIBLE 72 ... ... ... ... average 2001-2015

14.2 ...

14.1 ... CHRISTOPHER, ALEXISJ9

14.0 ... average 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

13.9 ... POLAR GAEL

13.8 ...

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 2013 CET

13.6 ... average 1961-1990

13.5 ... LETITSNOW! ... ... ... ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000

13.4 ...

13.3 ... ... ... ... ... average 1659-2015

13.2 ... WEATHER-HISTORY

13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 .. 2012 CET

12.6 ... average 1659-1700, 2015 CET

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)

11.1 ... RELATIVISTIC

10.7 ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)
10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)
10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

_______________________________________________

 

82 forecasts, median 15.0 C.

[stewfox]

where are the scores ?

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, stewfox said:

where are the scores ?

J, is on holiday I think? Back soon.

[J10]

Just now, J10 said:

Results now in based on the 17.0c figure, and thanks to everyone for their patience this month.

August 2016 CET New final.pdf

August 2016 CET New.xlsx

As correctly mentioned above

CongletonHeat and DiagonalRedLine got August spot on.

In the overall comp the top 3 has changed a great deal now being
Man With Beard (1st), CongletonHeat (2nd) with Roger J Smith (3rd)

However it really is very close and the closest it has ever been this time of year.

Onto the final summer seasonal results, and the standard this time has been stunning.

CongletonHeat won with 2 months spot on, and 0.2c out last month.
seaside 60 had the first 2 months spot on, was only 0.3c this month and ended up 2nd.

Dancerwithwings finished 3rd with 2 months 0.1c out and the other 0.2c out.

Any queries as ever please let me know.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of Forecasts for October 2016

 

20.2 ... ... ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... ... ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

15.5 ... LETTUCING GUTTED

13.3 ... ... ... ... warmest OCT 2001

13.2 ...BLAST FROM THE PAST

13.1 ... ... ... ... ... second warmest OCT 2005

13.0 ... ... ... ... ...  third warmest OCTs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ...... ... ... ...  fifth warmest OCT, 1995

12.8 ... ROGER J SMITH ... ... ... ...  sixth warmest OCT, 1921

12.7 ... ... ... ... ... 7th warmest OCT, warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... ED STONE, MOORLANDER ... ... ...  8th warmest OCTs, 1959 and 2011

12.5 ... BLUESKIES_DO_I_SEE ... ... ... 2013 and 2014 CET (tied 10th, 1968)

12.4 ... IAPENNELL ... ... ... ... (no OCT has finished on this value yet)

12.3 ... REEF ... ... ... ... tied 13th (1811) warmest of 18th century 1731

12.2 ... JACKFROST, ## DAVEHSUG ##

12.1 ... CORRIGAN87

12.0 ...CHEEKY_MONKEY, DR HOSKING

11.9 ... STEVE.B, STEWFOX

11.8 ... SUMMER SUN, DAMIANSLAW, NORRANCE, # MARCH #

11.7 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, SEASIDE60 

11.6 ...SIMSHADY

11.5 ... JEFF C, SYED2878, DON, MULZY, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

11.4 ... RAVELIN, MARCH BLIZZARD 

11.3 .. I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, MARK4, STATIONARY FRONT, ADERYN COCH ... ... mean 2001-2015

11.2 ... DANCER.WITH.WINGS, MAN WITH BEARD, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER, DAVID SNOW

... ... ... ... ... EVENING THUNDER, CRUCIBLE72

11.1 ... BORN FROM THE VOID, MARK BAYLEY, # STARGAZER #

11.0 .. MAPANTZ, THE PIT, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, J10  ... ... ... ... 2015 CET

10.9 ... ## ESSEX EASTERLY ##. .. ... ... ... mean 1986-2015

10.8 ... BOBD29, WEATHER26,

10.7 ... POLAR GAEL, JONATHAN F, SUNDOG, nn2013, SINGULARITY

... ... ... ... ....  ... ... ... ... mean 1981-2010

10.6 .. COSTA DEL FAL, VIZZY2004 ... ... ... ... mean 1961-1990

10.5 ... DR(S)NO, PEGG24, EASY-OASY, GODBER.1, CHRIS.R

10.4 .. MORE SNOW, CHRISTOPHER, PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER ... ... ... ... mean 1971-2000

10.3 ... WEATHER-HISTORY

10.2 ... ### DOCTOR32 ### ... ... ... mean 1901-2000

10.1 ... ALEXISJ9, CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWEATHERMAN

10.0 ... JOHN88B, DUNCAN McALISTER

 9.9 ... LET.IT.SNOW! TIMMYTOUR, # JONBOY #

 9.8 ... GAEL_FORCE

 9.7 ... ... ... ... ... mean for all years 1659-2015, also 2012 CET

 9.6 ...MARK N

 9.5 ... ... ... ... ... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 ... VIRTUALSPHERE ... ... ... ... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 ... WEIRPIG ... ... ... ...  mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... # CHANGING SKIES (DANIEL*) #

 9.1 ...

 9.0 ...

~ ~ ~ ~

 7.9 ... RELATIVISTIC

 7.8 .... ... ... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... ... ... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905

 6.5 .... ... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... ... second coldest 1817

 5.3 .... ... coldest 1740

 

 0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772) 29th, 1895

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

72 on time forecasts, 80 total ... median value 11.1 C.

plus four (#) late by one day, three (##) late by two days and one (###) by three days.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith
adding missed entry 11.01 = 11.0 in this table