CET Competition - the scores ongoing

[Dancerwithwings]

I sent a message to J10 as well.

Congrats 0.1c short.... 

[J10]

The Revised figures are now in, clearly a few of you spotted my deliberate mistake.     Got to keep you on your toes.

 

The spreadsheet is set up in such a way that changing the figures is easy. First time though I got the CET entry wrong though.

 

So this months corrected results No one got it spot on - pjl20101 was closest 0.1c out.

 

In the Seasonal comp BornFromTheVoid leads from pjl20101 with reef in 3rd.

 

Overall the same order as before reef in 1st, The PIT 2nd with Thundery wintry showers in 3rd.

 

PDF -> Oct 2014 cet Corrected.pdf

 

A serious point that I was thinking before this debacle, would anyone be interested in taking over the running of the spreadsheet from December onwards, I'll finish off this years comp, but going forward I'd be happy to stand aside.

Edited November 2, 2014 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Hey folks, let's show J-10 some respect and appreciation in general, he has been running this contest for quite a while now and invariably has the results posted very soon after each month, and has developed rules that make it fun to participate whether you're a regular or more casual visitor to the contest.

 

You know how it is on the internet, maybe this applies to you somewhere else, we do a lot of free work to provide valuable content and seldom get much back in return, while somewhere out of sight, anonymous third parties are making a living from (essentially) what we provide for free. So the last thing any of us really want or need is any kind of slagging from those who take full advantage of that free service. I know whereof I speak since my own internet participation is actually costing me considerable amounts of money and other aggravation while returning basically nothing other than the friendship and personal contacts that I make -- and that is worth a lot, but in sheer economic terms the internet no longer really makes all that much sense to many of its most valuable contributors.

 

Is there a solution in the more general question that I raised? Probably it will be a long time coming, if ever. But in the meantime, when there's somebody doing as good a job over a long period of time as our host J-10, we should be very appreciative -- I know most of you already were, but take a moment to say it (here's an idea, thank J-10's last post above mine, don't thank mine because that's not the point of this post).

 

Meanwhile, if J-10 needs a break to go ski-ing I am sure we can work around that, we can work out how we did and wait for the results or have somebody give an approximation before the official results, this is not like NASA where we have to know in real time. Of course, I would rather not know at all in most cases.

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries and CET averages, extremes -- Dec 2014 contest

 

12.9 .. warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.5 ... Craig Evans

8.4 ...

8.3 ...

8.2 ...

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974
8.0 ...

 

7.9 ...

7.8 ...

7.7 ... third warmest December 1852

7.6 ...

7.5 ...

7.4 ...

7.3 ...

7.2 ...

7.1 ...

7.0 ...

 

6.9 ... Stef

6.8 ...

6.7 ... I remember Atlantic 252

6.6 ...

6.5 ... SteveB

6.4 ... Froze were the Days, The underwriter

6.3 ... ----- Dec 2013

6.2 ...

6.1 ... Davehsug

6.0 ... CongletonHeat, The PIT

 

5.9 ... Stationary Front
5.8 ...

5.7 ... Reef, Costa del Fal

5.6 ... summer blizzard, Rich_Clements, Weather26, fozfoster, Thundery wintry showers

5.5 ... syed2878, Summer Sun, Mikeocarroll

5.4 ... Harve, rjbw

5.3 ... March Blizzard, Jason M, stargazer

5.2 ... Deep Snow, Don

5.1 ... tcc, coram, Evening thunder*  ---------------- average for 1971-2000

5.0 ... larger than average hobo, Weather-history, Born From the Void, DAVID SNOW

 

4.9 ... Diagonal Red Line, easy-oasy

4.8 ... Norrance, pjl 20101, J10 --------------- Dec 2012
4.7 ... windswept ------------------------ average for 1961-90
4.6 ... Mark Bayley, stewfox, mulzy, feb1991blizzard, Duncan McAlister

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------------ average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000
4.5 ... simshady, Captain shortwave, Blueskies_do_I_see, DR Hosking ------------ average for 2001-2013

4.4 ... virtualsphere, Kentish Man*

4.3 ... Mark wheeler, Milhouse, damianslaw, Rollo

4.2 ... Lomond Snowstorm, hillbilly, emotional rollercoaster, Boro Snow

4.1 ... Ninman, Mrs Trellis, Great Plum, A Winter's Tale ------------- average for 1659-2013

4.0 ... Isolated frost, TonyH ---------------- average for 1801-1900

 

3.9 ... Bobd29, Mark N, bobafet, Nouska, James M, hocus pocus, Dancerwithwings, Aderyn Coch

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -----  average for 1701-1800

3.8 ... leehws, Jack Wales, Essex Easterly, letterboxer

3.7 ... BARRY, ScottRichards10,

3.6 ... geoffw, Ross Andrew Hemphill, Timmytour, Marcus71, sweatyman, Midlands Ice Age
3.5 ... Gael_Force

3.4 ... V for Very Cold ----------------  average for 1659-1700

3.3 ... Daniel, DR(S)NO

3.2 ... LincolnSnowstorm, Some Like It Hot, jonboy, seabreeze86, sundog

3.1 ... prolongedSnowLover

3.0 ... Polar Gael

 

2.9 ... SE Blizzards, keith lucky, Polar Maritime

2.8 ... godber

2.7 ...

2.6 ... shuggee

2.5 ...

2.4 ...

2.3 ...

2.2 ... Polar Side

2.1 ...

2.0 ... Nigerian Prince

 

1.9 ...
1.8 ... Snowstorm1, Atlantic Flamethrower

1.7 ...

1.6 ...

1.5 ...

1.4 ...

1.3 ...

1.2 ...

1.1 ...

1.0 ...

 

0.3 ... Roger J Smith (not shown to scale)

 

 

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676
-0.7 ... second coldest 2010
-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_______________________________________________

 

* one day late

 

106 entries, welcome to new entrants (by my count about two dozen) __ the median forecast so far is 4.3, there is clearly quite a spread even excluding the predictable Craig Evans, and cream pies are being prepared, the unknown factor is where these will land.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

It took me a it longer than anticipated but the results of the 2014-15 results of the CET completion has been done.

 

The monthly winner was BlueSkies_do_I_see who got 8.6c spot on.

 

In the seasonal competition, a bit of a late turn around with BlueSkies_do_I_see winning from pjl20101 with Summer Sun in 3rd.

 

Overall reef held on for a deserved victory :clapping: with the Pit 2nd and BlueSkies_do_I_see up to 3rd.

 

Well done to the winners, and thanks to all for taking part this year.

 

Nov 2014 cet.xls

 

Nov 2014 cet.pdf

[J10]

It was asked in the main December 14 prediction thread about what difference early to late predictions makes to the accuracy of predictions.

 

I have done some analysis and here are the findings.

 

2013-2014 Data Analysis.pdf - Edit this has been changed to improve the formatting of the Correlation figures.

 

2013-2014 Data Analysis.xls

 

In terms of correlation between prediction time and Monthly ranking. There is a -0.17 correlation, which means the later the entry more likely is to be correct, however over the year this relationship is not particularly strong.

 

However for 4 months, this was a stronger correlation than -0.35 these being January February, April and August. This is probably due to strong indications of the the likely temperature appearing in the last few days of the preceding month. Other month saw a figure closer to 0, with Dec 13 and July 14 being marginally positive, indicating earlier entries being higher ranked than later entries. The reasons for this might be that the indications towards the end of the month might have been misleading or inconclusive.

 

Further to the above, I have also split the entries into 4 quartiles, with the first quartile being the first 1/4 entries etc, this makes allocations a bit arbitrary around the edges, e.g allocation is a bit tricky with 87 entries, but these figures are at least decent as indicative figures.

 

In addition these are the figures across the year, with later entries getting better ranking points (1= last, to 100 = 1st) across the year. Again this hides a variation.

 

50.5 Overall       

42.5 1st Quartile       

50.8 2nd Quartile       

54.0 3rd Quartile      

54.7 4th Quartile

 

As an example, the 4th quartile for Jan,Feb and August each seeing the average 4th quartile score over 60. e.g. later entries dong far better than earlier entries.

 

Finally I have also analysis the entries compared to the actual outturn, and on average, there was a 0.8c under prediction. given such a mild year this is no surprise. The best predicted month was May 0.1c out in terms of average prediction to outturn, the Worst predicted month was August which was on average over predicted by 2.3c.

Edited December 8, 2014 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

My guess is that Craig Evans distorts the statistics too, he often goes fairly early with his routine higher than record value prediction, and so in most months that will weigh down the first (or maybe second) quartile. As you say Dec 13 and July 14 were somewhat against the trend, that also indicates the Craig effect because his guess would have been relatively close for those warmer months.

 

I can recall one or two months before this study period when there was a shift in thinking near the deadline, for example October 2013. There may have been some months when the correlation was stronger than anything in the past year, but doing those tables of entries has convinced me that the trends are usually pretty weak -- that's because I am filling out a table from start to finish of the thread, and so I get an idea of how the guesses are trending as I type them into the table. And I am forever going up and down the table with no apparent pattern to the trends. I do recall that in Dec 2010 all the late entries were much closer than most of the early ones.

 

Anyway, I would expect a weak correlation since the variance in predictions is almost all concerned with the second half of the month for which there are few clues available to any entrants, but if you go as early as the 21st or 22nd then you are excluding almost the whole month from known outcomes and that would have to increase the uncertainty. In a month that has some major pattern shift after the 10th such as March 2013 or Nov 2010, I would imagine there might be no correlation of entry date and accuracy.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Just checked the overall results. 6th for November, 34th for the season and 21st for the year rising to 16th when we exclude those who've missed a prediction.

 

Quite pleased though not as good as 2013 when i finished 6th.

Edited December 9, 2014 by summer blizzard

[March Blizzard]

I went from winning the comp last year to finishing 49th this year. That's some drop...

Last minute entries last year clearly was the way to go. The change in tactics to early entries clearly didn't pay off.

Must do better.

[J10]

My guess is that Craig Evans distorts the statistics too, he often goes fairly early with his routine higher than record value prediction, and so in most months that will weigh down the first (or maybe second) quartile. As you say Dec 13 and July 14 were somewhat against the trend, that also indicates the Craig effect because his guess would have been relatively close for those warmer months.

 

I can recall one or two months before this study period when there was a shift in thinking near the deadline, for example October 2013. There may have been some months when the correlation was stronger than anything in the past year, but doing those tables of entries has convinced me that the trends are usually pretty weak -- that's because I am filling out a table from start to finish of the thread, and so I get an idea of how the guesses are trending as I type them into the table. And I am forever going up and down the table with no apparent pattern to the trends. I do recall that in Dec 2010 all the late entries were much closer than most of the early ones.

 

Anyway, I would expect a weak correlation since the variance in predictions is almost all concerned with the second half of the month for which there are few clues available to any entrants, but if you go as early as the 21st or 22nd then you are excluding almost the whole month from known outcomes and that would have to increase the uncertainty. In a month that has some major pattern shift after the 10th such as March 2013 or Nov 2010, I would imagine there might be no correlation of entry date and accuracy.

 

Indeed you are spot on Craig Evans entries did have an effect, taking him out and the Correlation dropped from -0.17 to -0.15.

 

Another small effect is that the more serious players tend to punt late, which improves the rankings of the later entries.

 

So all in all, I pretty much agree with all you have said.

[Roger J Smith]

Note to J10 -- here's our January 2015 table of entries, they are listed in the order I found them but with people editing their guesses that might not be the same as the order they made the forecasts in one or two cases ...

... if you want to start a new thread then maybe you could move this over, or just update the thread title ...

__________________________________________________

 

 

January 2015 CET forecasts and statistics

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 .. CRAIG EVANS
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 .. warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 .. second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 .. fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 .. fifth warmest, and warmest since 1834 (2007)
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4 .. TIMMYTOUR, DON
6.3 ..
6.2 .. PEGG24
6.1 ..

6.0 .. BLAST.FROM.THE.PAST, SUMMER SUN, STEF
5.9 ..
5.8 .. CARL46WREXHAM, SE.BLIZZARDS
5.7 .. JASON M ... ... ... ... 2014 CET
5.6 .. REEF, GAEL_FORCE
5.5 .. CORAM
5.4 .. FROZE WERE THE DAYS, COSTA DEL FAL, SCOTTRICHARDS10, J10
5.3 .. VIRTUALSPHERE, FEB1991BLIZZARD
5.2 .. CONTINENTAL CLIMATE, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE
5.1 .. I.LOVE.THE.SNOW, FOZFOSTER, THE_PIT, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, MARK4, EVENING THUNDER#

5.0 .. BACKTRACK, TONYH, SYED2878,  STEWFOX, THE UNDERWRITER
4.9 .. SUNLOVER, MR MAUNDER
4.8 .. CONGLETON.HEAT, NINMAN, MARCUS71, DR_HOSKING, THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS

4.7 .. DANCER.WITH.WINGS ... ... ... ... --- average 2001-14 ----
4,6 .. MRS TRELLIS, KENTISH MAN#

4.5 .. COLDEST WINTER, DAVID SNOW, DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, EASY-OASY
4.4 ..  WEATHER26, WEATHER-HISTORY, SUMMER BLIZZARD, DUNCAN McALISTER, A WINTER'S TALE 

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1981-2010 -----
4.3 .. ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, PJL20101, DR(S)NO, M1CHAELS, SEABREEZE86, GREAT PLUM
4.2 .. GODBER ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 .. MARCH BLIZZARD

4.0 .. NORRANCE, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER
3.9 .. MIDLANDS ICE AGE, DAVEHSUG ... ... ... ... --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, DUNSTABLE SNOW, NIGERIAN PRINCE ... ... ... ... --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 .. LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, DAMIANSLAW, -BOMBER-#
3.6 .. HILLBILLY
3.5 .. ISOLATED FROST, ADERYN COCH, MARK BAYLEY ... ... ... ... 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3 .. MARK N ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-2014 -----
3.2 .. SNOWSTORM.1, JONBOY, MULZY

3.1 .. STEVEB, POLAR SIDE

3.0 ... BOBD29 ... ... ... ...  --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. SUNDOG ... ... ... ...  --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 .. MIKEOCARROLL
2.7 .. LINCOLN.SNOWSTORM
2.6 .. SIMSHADY ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 .. ROGER J SMITH
2.4 .. BARRY
2.3 ..
2.2 ..

2.1 .. 95 DEGREES

2.0 .. GEOFFW, RJBW
1.9 .. LOMOND.SNOWSTORM
1.8 .. BIGSNOW
1.7 ..
1.6 ..
1.5 ..
1.4 ... coldest past 27 yrs (2010)
1.3 .. CHEEKY MONKEY
1.2 ..
1.1 ..

1.0 ..
0.9 ..
0.8 .. coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)
0.7 ..
0.6 ..
0.5 ..
0.4 ..
0.3 ..
0.2 ..
0.1 ..

0.0 ..
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ... last subzero (1979)
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7 ... DANIEL*
-0.8
-0.9

-1.0 .. POLAR GAEL ... ... ... ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963) -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

____________________________________________

 

89 on time forecasts, and so far three more that are one day late (92 total) - - since Daniel* has that asterisk in his username, I will have to use a different symbol now for the late forecasts,

 

and that will be # for each day late

 

have been able to edit those in as they appeared and for now the median of all forecasts remains 4.4 C. The consensus seems a bit milder than long-term average but not really mild compared with the most recent averages. Interesting that nobody punted for over 6.4 except of course Craig Evans.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

I think I have this in the bag, no more to be seen here, median is +0.1C up on December. Does tell a story. May I suggest (!) instead of the asterisk? - Chris Evens as unpredictable as ever. To have a sub-zero CET we will need something else... -20C 850s coming our way via cold hearted Siberia. Last quarter is my interest, earlier the better but it is becoming apparent that week 1 and 2 does not hold much promise.

[J10]

Cheers as ever to Roger compiling the scores, please like his posts as I have done.

 

 

Scores are now in.

 

This year on a trial basis, I am adding additional information in the form of Pivot Tables on the spreadsheets and other info which should allow for future analysis if required.  However the scores are also in the previous  format.

 

Scores

 

5.2c - 2 players got it spot on DeepSnow and Don, while a further six were 0.1c out.

 

Monthly and Overall

 

The Top 3 are DeepSnow, Don and tcc.

 

Dec 2014 cet.pdf

Dec 2014 cet.xls

 

Statistical info

 

The average entry was 4.4c [0.8c below the final out turn.]

The Correlation was -0.25, indicating that later entries were better than previous ones.

 

Any errors please let me know [as politely as possible.]

 

These are the scores from the other thread.

[March Blizzard]

Once again, thanks to RJS and J10 for continually doing this on all our behalf.

Much appreciated.

[Fozfoster]

Yeah in the bag!!! 5.1c ;-)

[Roger J Smith]

Table of Feb 2015 CET forecasts, averages and extremes

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)
 

8.0 ... CRAIG EVANS
7.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 

6.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2014 CET (tied with 1877 as 32nd warmest out of 356 cases)
6.1 ...

6.0 ...

 

5.9 ...

5.8 ... ILOVETHESNOW, SUMMER of 95, SYED2878

5.7 ...

5.6 ...

5.5 ...

5.4 ...

5.3 ...

5.2 ... EML NETWORK

5.1 ...

5.0 ... PEGG24, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE

 

4.9 ... NINMAN

4.8 ... SUMMER SUN, TIMMYTOUR, MR MAUNDER#

4.7 ... CARL46WREXHAM, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  ---- mean for 2001-2014 ---
4.6 ... CONGLETON.HEAT

4.5 ... WEATHER26, THE PIT, STEWFOX

4.4 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, STEVE.B ... ... ... ... --- mean 1981-2010 ---
4.3 ... DR(S)NO, J10

4.2 ... SIMSHADY, MARK N, SUNLOVER, HOCUS-POCUS, ALWAYS.EXPECT.RAIN, REEF, NORRANCE#

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  --- mean for 1971-2000 ---
4.1 ...M1CHAELS, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, DR_HOSKING

4.0 ... KEITHLUCKY ... ... ... ... ... --- mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 ---

3.9 ... WEATHER-HISTORY, COLDEST WINTER 

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  --- mean for 1659-2014 (all 356 years) ---
3.8 ... MARK BAYLEY, STARGAZER, DON# ... ... ... ... --- mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 ---
3.7 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, KENTISH MAN

3.6 ... SNOW DAYZ, HILLBILLY, DAMIANSLAW, EASY-OASY, A WINTER's TALE

3.5 ... MILHOUSE, MARCUS71, MULZY, STEF

3.4 ... JASON M, DAVID SNOW

3.3 ...

3.2 ... DUNCAN McALISTER, DAVEHSUG

3.1 ... BARRY, SCOTT.R

3.0 ... MARCH BLIZZARD, FEB1991BLIZZARD

 

2.9 ... RJBW, GAEL_FORCE ... ... ... ... ...  --- mean for 1659-1700 ---
2.8 ... GODBER

2.7 ... SUNDOG

2.6 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, CORAM

2.5 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

2.4 ...

2.3 ... DITCH

2.2 ... SNOWSTORM.1, MRS TRELLIS, CONTINENTAL CLIMATE, GREAT PLUM, STATIONARY FRONT

2.1 ... BOBD29, JONBOY

2.0 ... GEOFF.W, DANCER.WITH.WINGS

 

1.9 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE

1.8 ... ADERYN.COCH, PJL20101

1.7 ... MIDLANDS.ICE.AGE

1.6 ...

1.5 ... SE BLIZZARDS

1.4 ...

1.3 ... ROGER J SMITH

1.2 ...

1.1 ...

1.0 ... POLAR GAEL

 

0.9 ...

0.8 ...

0.7 ... SEABREEZE86

0.6 ...

0.5 ...

0.4 ... LUKE MC

0.3 ...

0.2 ...

0.1 ...

0.0 ... DANIEL*

 

-0.1 ..

-0.2 ..

-0.3 ..

-0.4 ..

-0.5 .. PROLONGED.SNOW.LOVER

-0.6 ..

-0.7..

-0.8 ..

-0.9 ..

-1.0 ..

 

-1.1 .. JEFF C .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.2 ..

-1.3 ..

-1.4 ..

-1.5 ..

-1.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ...  ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... coldest month of Feb 1947
-2.0 ...
-2.4 ... ... ... ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... ... ... ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1785)
 

 -4.6 .. DEEP SNOW PLEASE

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_________________________________________________________________________

 

# day late (any more late entries will be edited in later)

 

86 forecasts, median value is 3.6 ... two clusters in mid-4s and mid-2s.

Edited February 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Great Plum]

Roger, yes, I meant 2.2c

[J10]

Results are in.

 

Competition

5 players got it spot on this month.

 

Weather26,  Weather-history,  summer blizzard, Duncan McAlister and A Winter's Tale

 

However with 4.4c being on average there are no bonuses in place for guessing the right or wrong side of average.

 

In the Seasonal comp, the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and Weather26

 

While overall the top 3 is Weather-history, DAVID SNOW and DeepSnow with Weather26 in 4th

 

Jan 2015 CET.pdfJan 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline and average CET are both 4.4c, while the average entry was 4.2c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.0c

 

The correlation was -0.26c so an advantage for entering later, while the 4th quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, compared to 40 pts of the first quartile.

[March Blizzard]

Currently sitting in 5th with an average error of 0.2C. Not bad! Weather-History is a real threat, he's always up there, could be an interesting battle this year!

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly in 3rd and 4th are me and Weather 26 who appear to have exactly the same error in Dec and Jan and have predicted just 0.1C between us this month. 

[Roger J Smith]

March 2015 CET forecasts and data

 

14.7 ... ... ... ... ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

10.0.. CRAIG EVANS

 

9.2 ... ... ... ... ... Warmest March (1957)
9.1 ... ... ... ... ... 2nd warmest March (1938)
9.0 ...

8.9 ... PROLONGED.SNOW.LOVER

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4 ... ... ... ... ... 3rd warmest March (1997)
8.3 ... ... ... ... ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
8.2 ... ... ... ... ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
8.1 ...

8.0 ... I.LOVE.THE.SNOW, GAEL_FORCE

7.9 ...

7.8 ...

7.7 ...

7.6 ... EASY-OASY ... ... ... ... 2014 CET
7.5 ... DON, EVENING THUNDER, DANCERWITHWINGS##

7.4 ... BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE

7.3 ... BOBAFET, CARL46WREXHAM, KENTISH MAN

7.2 ... BOBD29, COSTA DEL FAL, STATIONARY FRONT

7.1 ... REEF, KEITHLUCKY, DAVID SNOW, PEGG24##

7.0 ... SUMMER SUN, GEOFF.W, THE PIT, RJBW, DUNCAN McALISTER

6.9 ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, MILHOUSE, MARCUS71, THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS, MARCH BLIZZARD,SUNLOVER#

6.8 ... CONGLETON HEAT, DR HOSKING, DAVEHSUG, GREAT PLUM, TIMMYTOUR#

6.7 ... MRS TRELLIS, STARGAZER, DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, J10, A WINTER'S TALE#

6.6 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, DAMIANSLAW, COLDEST.WINTER, THUNDERBOLT

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  mean of 1981-2010

6.5 ... CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, PJL20101, SYED2878, NORRANCE, ADERYN COCH

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... mean of 21st century (2001-2014)
6.4 ... WEATHER 26, STEVE.B, MARK BAYLEY, POLAR GAEL

6.3 ... DR(S)NO, SUNDOG, GODBER# ... ... ... ... mean of 1971-2000
6.2 ... HILLBILLY
6.1 ... LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO, MULZY, DANIEL*

6.0 ... SIMSHADY

5.9 ... ROGER J SMITH, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, WEATHER-HISTORY, MIDLANDS ICE AGE

5.8 ... BARRY ... ... ... ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000)
5.7 ... SNOWSTORM1, SEABREEZE86 ... ... ... ... mean of 1961-1990
5.6 ...

5.5 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

5.4 ...

5.3 ... STEWFOX ... ... ... ... mean of all 356 years (1659-2014)
5.2 ... VIRTUALSPHERE ... ... ... ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900)
5.1 ...

5.0 ... STEF ... ... ... ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

4.9 ... SUMMER of 95

4.8 ...

4.7 ... CORAM

4.6 ... ... ... ... ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

2.8 ... ... ... ... ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962)

2.7 ... ... ... ... ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

1.8 ... ... ... ... ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
1.2 ... ... ... ... ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
1.0 ... ... ... ... ... Coldest March (1674)

1.0 ... ... ... ... ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 

0.6 ... ... ... ... ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.9 ... ... ... ... ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... ... ... ... ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

_______________________________________________________

 

on-time, median 6.7 for 68 entries.

after two days of late entries, median 6.7 for 74 entries.

 

# one day late

Edited March 4, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

Results are now in and being uploaded.

 

Keithlucky got the 4.0c spot on this month.

 

while 5 were 0.1c out m1chaels, BornFromTheVoid, Weather-history, DR Hosking and coldest winter

 

In the seasonal scores the Top 3 was Weather-history Always expect rain and summer blizzard

 

While Overall the Top 3 is Weather-history coldest winter and Stargazer with Always expect rain and summer blizzard 4th and 5th

 

XLS format Feb 2015 CET.xls

 

PDF format Feb 2015 CET.pdf

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline was 4.4c and average CET was 4.0c, while the average entry was 3.3c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.3c

 

The correlation was -0.04c so no real advantage for entering later, while the 3rd quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, with all other quartiles below the 50pts mark.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of CET forecasts for April 2015 (with extremes and averages)

 

19.7 ... ... ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... ... ... ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)
 

12.0 ... CRAIG EVANS, DANIEL*
 

11.8 ... ... ... ... ... warmest April (2011)
 

11.2 ... ... ... ... ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
 

10.7 ... GEOFF.W

10.6 ... ... ... ... ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... ... ... ... ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... ... ... ... ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... ... ... ... ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... PROLONGED.SNOW.LOVER ... ... ... CET for 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... POLAR_GAEL  ... ... ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... BACKTRACK  ... ... ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, most recent was 2009)
 9.9 ... DAVEHSUG

 9.8 ... BOBD29

 9.7 ... SUMMER SUN
 9.6 ...

 9.5 ... STEF, DR HOSKING, STEVE.B #

 9.4 ... BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, MATTY007

 9.3 ...

 9.2 ... DIAGONAL.RED.LINE ... ... ... ... average for 2001-14
 9.1 ... BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, REEF

 9.0 ... CONGLETON HEAT, DANCER.WITH.WINGS, COSTA DEL FAL, STATIONARY FRONT, RJBW 

 8.9 ... SNOWSTORM.1, THUNDERBOLT_, ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, MARCUS71, MARK BAYLEY

 8.8 ... COLDEST WINTER, MRS TRELLIS, DAMIANSLAW, GREAT PLUM

 8.7 ... ROGER J SMITH, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, STEWFOX, J10

 8.6 ... MIDLANDS ICE AGE, DAVID SNOW, WEATHER-HISTORY, HARVE#
 8.5 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, PJL20101, MULZY ... ... ... ... average for 1981-2010
 8.4 ... STARGAZER, SEABREEZE 86, SYED2878, NORRANCE, GODBER, DON

 8.3 ... DR(S)NO, LARGER.THAN.AVERAGE.HOBO, GAEL_FORCE, EASY-OASY

 8.2 ... SIMSHADY, WEATHER26, SUNDOG

 8.1 ... ADERYN COCH, KENTISH MAN#

... ... ... ... ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)
 8.0 ... I.LOVE.THE.SNOW, JONBOY, MARCH BLIZZARD ... ... ... average for 19th century 1801-1900

 7.9 ... HILLBILLY

 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... average for all data 1659-2014, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800

 7.8 ... CORAM

 7.7 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, DUNCAN McALISTER

 7.6 ...

 7.5 ... THE_PIT ... ... ... ... 2013 CET
 7.4 ... BARRY

 7.3 ... ... ... ... ... average for 1659-1700
 7.2 ...

 7.1 ... SUMMER OF 95

 7.0 ... ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

 6.9 ...

 6.8 ...

 6.7 ...

 6.6 ...

 6.5 ...

 6.4 ...

 6.3 ...

 6.2 ...

 6.1 ...

 6.0 ...
 5.9 ...

 5.8 ... ... ... ... ...18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... ... ... ... ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... ... ... ... ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... ... ... ... ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

 -0.2 ... ... ... ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
 -0.5 ... ... ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

 

As of 8:30 p.m. on 1 April, 65 entries and 3 late (#) by one day, total 68 entries, median was 8.7 and just over half the field was clustered between 8.4 and 9.0 C. Will update this if later entries come in after this.

Edited April 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Kentish Man]

8.1C please

[J10]

8.1C please

 

This is the wrong thread for forecasts, do you want it in the April CET forecast thread..