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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Dumile

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Tropical Cyclone 07S has formed several hundred miles north of La Reunion and northeast of northern Madagascar. 07S has struggled as an invest over the last several days under heavy wind shear, but shear has relaxed over the LLC today allowing deep convection to persist and expand in size over the centre. Intensity is 35kts. 07S is expected to strengthen, perhaps rapidly, over the next few days as sea temps are warm, shear now low and outflow excellent. La Reunion should closely watch 07S as it appears that the island will see 07S brush very near in a few days time as 07S is expected to move southwards along the west side of a ridge to the east.

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07S has stengthened overnight, been given the name Dumile by MeteoFrance, and reached an intensity of 45kts according to JTWC. Both agencies agree on a track southwards over the coming days, and agree on some decent strengthening too. Dumile has some pretty deep convection near the LLC, indicative of high moisture content in the vicinity of the cyclone. Shear is low to moderate, sea temps are warm, and outflow is impressive. Therefore, I think JTWC's forecast peak of 100kts is a fair one. La Reunion and neighbouring islands need to closely watch Dumile, as it appears they are in the cyclone's path.

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Dumile has strengthened over the last 24hrs. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone has some deep convection over the LLC, flanked by curved banding features. Shear is low and waters are warm, so Dumile should continue to strengthen over the next day or so as it heads south towards La Reunion.

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A large, rugged eye is now visable on satelite imagery, and sustained winds have risen to 65kts. Dumile has not strengthened as quickly as originally forecast due to unforseen moderate shear. Strong poleward outflow as negated the effect of the shear a little and allowed Dumile to slowly intensify over the last day or two. Dumile could strengthen a little more before shear rises further and sea temps cool along track, initiating extratropical transition.

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Dumile is likely peaking this morning, at 75kts. Convection on the northern side of the eye is rather shallow, and sea temps are falling along track. Shear is rising, and Dumile will likely begin extratropical transition very soon as it turns to the southeast.

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