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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

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Tropical Cyclone 06S has formed in the southeast Indian Ocean, a few hundred miles northwest of Learmonth, NW Australia. Intensity is 35kts. The cyclone is small but has deep convection over the tightly wound LLC. Shear is low to moderate, and outflow is good. In addition, sea temps are plenty warm enough for some intensification. Ridging to the east is expected to push 06S south-southwestwards, eventually towards cooler waters. Until 06S reaches these waters in about 24-36hrs, it should strengthen, perhaps quite quickly given it's small size.

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Up until yesterday the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was giving TC over the next few days in this area a 20% chance of forming, funny how things can change so quick.

I think this is the first one in Australian waters this season?

Late developments this season.

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Mitchell has strengthened to 45kts. The cyclone retains a small, tightly wound LLC with a small area of intense convection covering it. Mitchell could strengthen a little more over the next 12 hours, but is likely near peak intensity as the cyclone is not far from sliding into cooler waters.

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45kts was Mitchell's peak. Mitchell has now degenerated into a remnant low over cooler waters and increasing shear. Regeneration isn't expected as Mitchell continues to slide south out of the tropics.

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