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Met office Contingency planners forecasts

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March update

April to June

Temperature summary

For April, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. For April-May-June as a whole, above-average temperatures are marginally more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 15% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-amj-v1.pdf

Precipitation

For April, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation. For April-May-June as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-amj-v1.pdf

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April Update 

May to July

Temperature summary

For May, the chances of above- and below-average temperatures are close to normal. For May-June-July as a whole, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mjj-v1.pdf

Precipitation

For both May and May-June-July as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mjj-v1.pdf

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July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-aso-v2.pdf

Precipitation

For August-September-October as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation.
 
The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-aso-v2.pdf

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September update

October to December

Temperature summary

For October November December as a whole, above average temperatures are more likely than below average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for October-November-December will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 10% and 15%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 35% and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For October-November-December as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for October-November-December will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 30% and 35% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ond-v2.pdf

 

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October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November, and for November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are slightly more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 15% and 20%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For November, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. For November-December-January as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for November- December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

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Whoop whoop, that's a pleasing update!  Needless to say caution required as usual with all long range forecasts.

Edited by Don

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December update

January to March 

Temperature summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 30% and 35%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average precipitation is more probable than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-jfm-v1.pdf

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Decent update and a bit better than the last one! Interestingly the percentage has increased for Jan-March to fall into the colder categories. Something's a foot.

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Thanks Gav.

Here's another snippet from their forecast:

"The chances of disruptive cold weather, such as snow, are also higher than usual."

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No complaints from me with that update!

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January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal, particularly earlier in the 3-month period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

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The above is a bust then... likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal, particularly earlier in the 3-month period. Lets see what there March-May forecast is - but maybe not.. I've decided not to look at any long range forecast again.

 

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February update

March to May

Temperature summary

For March and March-April-May as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mam-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For March, and March-April-May as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar.  The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20 and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mam-v1.pdf

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Wow that’s pretty confident for them. I do think these are fairly good in general. Been following them for a few years and it’s only the winters it struggles with but so does everyone else it seems! 

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56 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

February update

March to May

Temperature summary

For March and March-April-May as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mam-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For March, and March-April-May as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar.  The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20 and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mam-v1.pdf

Back to business as usual then with the outlook!  Another warm year on the cards even at this early stage?

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Wow that is a pretty confident signal!!  Given model predictability is lower in the spring and summer than winter.   50% in the warmest category! I recall winter 16/17 with I think 45% in the coldest category! lasted a week before total bust!

But I actually think this has some legs.   As we head towards summer, the warm signal seems to persist, maybe given the precipitation element, less dry heat, more plumes?    Early indications only.....but of interest!

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March update

April to June

Temperature summary

For April-May-June as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-amj-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For April-May-June as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-amj-v2.pdf

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On 31/03/2019 at 11:09, Summer Sun said:

March update

April to June

Temperature summary

For April-May-June as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-amj-v2.pdf

 

That's a strong signal for above average temperatures!

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April update

May to July

Temperature summary

For May-June-July as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45% and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mjj-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For May-June-July as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, drier-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-mjj-v2.pdf

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May update

June to August

Temperature summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf

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Posted (edited)

Still a strong signal for warmer than average temperatures.  However, a slight bias towards wetter than average conditions could hint at a thundery summer?

Edited by Don

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Still a strong signal for warmer than average temperatures.  However, a slight bias towards wetter than average conditions could hint at a thundery summer?

Been some time since we had a warm thundery wet summer, 2004 probably the last one. 1994 and 1997 also brought quite a bit of thundery weather at times. Strong pressure to the east, and trough just to the west is the synoptic that delivers such weather, with warm southerly plumes and rapid breakdowns interspersed with lengthy dry periods and briefer fresher atlantic conditions.

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June update

July to September

Temperature summary

For July-August-September as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for July-August-September will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 35 and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For July-August-September as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jas-v2.pdf

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