Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

October update

November to January

Temperature

Precipitation

that will raise some peoples hopes.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

October update

November to January

Temperature

Precipitation

Well if I'm reading that right, the November clusters average at around 6.3C and the NDJ averages at around 4.3C at very best. That would mean December and January averaging at 3.3C. Coooooold!!!

[NorthYorkMoorsSnow]

John Hammond is on Facebook live right now talking about the winter forecast on the BBC News page! 

[Don]

7 hours ago, weirpig said:

that will raise some peoples hopes.

Hmm, not a bad update for coldies....

[Walsall Wood Snow]

The fact in itself that the Met Office of all organisations is thinking that this coming Winter may be on the cold side, is a huge confidence boost for us coldies. They wouldn't put this idea out lightly. Not saying they will be right of course and neither are they. But there's got to be very specific alarm bells ringing, which seldom do for them to even suggest such. I've still got to only be cautiously optimistic though despite this. They did see the end of 2010 coming though. To add a bit of balance though they failed to see Winter 2009/10 coming and they also raised expectations to high for Winter 2005/06. But they weren't alone in that. And that Winter was a bit cold though. As I say though it is very comforting to see them on board.

[March]

But to put it into perspective, the next three months could be on average 0.5C colder than average and that forecast could be right and still the weather would be no where near what you want if you enjoy cold. 

[Barry12]

59 minutes ago, March said:

But to put it into perspective, the next three months could be on average 0.5C colder than average and that forecast could be right and still the weather would be no where near what you want if you enjoy cold. 

One month could be well below average with significant snowfall and the other 2 months mild, averaging out at average. I'd take that!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I wouldn't get too excited about the three month forecast being on the cold side. . The same was said last year and look how that turned out.

[lassie23]

What is their track record with long range forecasting,.?

[Summer Sun]

7 hours ago, 40*C said:

I wouldn't get too excited about the three month forecast being on the cold side. . The same was said last year and look how that turned out.

Not quite

"During December above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. The likelihood of a prolonged spell of cold weather is relatively low compared to normal."

"For December and December-January-February as a whole above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average."

[johnholmes]

8 hours ago, 40*C said:

I wouldn't get too excited about the three month forecast being on the cold side. . The same was said last year and look how that turned out.

I think if you are able to find the forecast it did not indicate a cold winter?

[Ravelin]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not quite

"During December above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. The likelihood of a prolonged spell of cold weather is relatively low compared to normal."

"For December and December-January-February as a whole above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average."

I think he meant The Express.

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think if you are able to find the forecast it did not indicate a cold winter?

He only needed to go back one page!! ......

 

[Summer Sun]

If anyone wants's to see what the 3-month forecast predicted in October and November last year just go back one page to page 5 they are both near the top

Edited November 2, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I think he meant The Express.

Why the need for pointless sarcasm? I never read or bother to take any notice of the express or any newspaper publication. I was referring to an article published by a Matt Hugo (if that's the correct name) which predicted a colder than average winter....

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Why the need for pointless sarcasm? I never read or bother to take any notice of the express or any newspaper publication. I was referring to an article published by a Matt Hugo (if that's the correct name) which predicted a colder than average winter....

But this thread is talking about the Met Office Contingency Forecast which last year said an above average December (and January) were likely.

I can't remember what Matt Hugo predicted last year (he's a member of this forum and does the synoptic guidance for the week ahead thread):

 

[Summer Sun]

November update

December to February

Temperature summary

During December below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The risk of impacts from cold weather is considerably higher than normal.  Predictions for UK-mean temperature for the whole of the winter season (December-January-February) show only a slight shift from the normal range of expected conditions. Nevertheless, this unremarkable outlook conceals a change from an increased risk of a cold start to winter to a greater likelihood of milder conditions later on. These different phases tend to balance the probability of above- and below-average conditions in the overall 3-month average, but the risk of cold weather impacts in the first half of winter is considerably greater than normal.  Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As stated above, however, these statistics conceal a shift in probabilities as winter progresses.

Full update here

Precipitation summary

During December below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average. For December-January-February as a whole there is only a slight shift from the normal range of expected conditions, with below-average precipitation slightly more probable than above-average. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full update here

[Summer Sun]

December update

January to March

Temperature summary

During January, signals are for only a slight shift from the normal range of expected conditions, with above average temperatures slightly more likely than below average temperatures. Predictions for UK average temperature for the whole of the 3 month period (January February March) show above average temperatures are more likely than below average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK average temperature for January February March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981 2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full update here

Precipitation summary

During December below average precipitation is more likely than above average. For December January February as a whole there is only a slight shift from the normal range of expected conditions, with below average precipitation slightly more probable than above average. The probability that UK average precipitation for December January February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981 2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full update here

Edited December 19, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

That update SS certainly indicates probabilty of cold has reduced.

Roll on an early warm Spring.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

That update SS certainly indicates probabilty of cold has reduced.

Roll on an early warm Spring.

Well there's a surprise, agree roll on Spring

[Don]

At this stage it looks like it's game over for winter now.  Very disappointing, particularly as it looked promising for a cold first half back in late October and November, although it was always going to be risky, especially given the very odd behavior of the QBO this year.  I'm ready to write winter off early, but we'll see how things look in a months time....

Edited December 21, 2016 by Don

[Summer Sun]

January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average.
 
Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full update below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

During February, above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average. For February-March-April as a whole, above- and below-average precipitation are equally probable.
 
The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full update below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

 

[Summer Sun]

February update

March to May

Temperature summary

For March and March-April-May, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full update http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mam-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

During March, above- and below-average precipitation are almost equally probable. For March-April-May as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more probable than below-average. The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full update http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mam-v1.pdf

Edited March 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

March update

April to June

Temperature summary

For April and April-May-June, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%

Full update: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-amj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For April, and April-May-June as a whole, below-average precipitation is considered slightly more probable than above-average.  Overall, the probability that the UK-average precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-amj-v1.pdf

[Bristawl Si]

Reads like a pretty decent update.