Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

21 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think that is a fairly sensible way to go though, the globe is warming. The nuance is when it gets down to regional forecasting for shorter time periods. 

It’s warming so fast that practically there’s minimal chances of below normal temperatures ? The model is of no use.

Edited October 25, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[MattStoke]

Criticising the Met Office for always predicting above average temperatures globally when we keep getting above average temperatures globally seems a bit odd. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Criticising the Met Office for always predicting above average temperatures globally when we keep getting above average temperatures globally seems a bit odd. 

Might as well remove the below normal category as it will always show blue  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Hmmm

August’19 2m temperature probabilities forecast for Sep-Nov’19 

Edited October 25, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Mr Frost]

Personally I think they are absolute tosh - especially after this one issued on 14/12/2018 last year...

If I had a business that was affected by anything weather related I would not have been too pleased at how wide of the mark this turned out to be. (If I had been daft enough to spend money preparing for this outcome)

 

Best sticking with forecasts that go out to the 5 to 7 days range - anything else is guesswork but each to their own. (We all have our own favourite weather models/charts/outlooks after all)

Edited October 25, 2019 by Mr Frost

[MattStoke]

These are based on probabilities and there is always going to be a probability of below average temperatures so they can’t just drop that category.

These contingency planners are meant to be for businesses, policy makers and public services. There will be plenty of info and explanations with them. The Met Office aren’t going to just hand them out and say ‘There you go’. They're also just meant to be a guidance, which the Met Office forecasters won't stick rigidly to when discussing them with their clients.

They're not pointless but they shouldn't be publicly available with the way they get misinterpreted.

Edited October 25, 2019 by MattStoke

[Summer Sun]

October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November and November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 50% and 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For November, the chances of above-average and below-average precipitation are similar. For November-December-January as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 35% and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

[johnholmes]

On 25/10/2019 at 08:01, MattStoke said:

These are based on probabilities and there is always going to be a probability of below average temperatures so they can’t just drop that category.

These contingency planners are meant to be for businesses, policy makers and public services. There will be plenty of info and explanations with them. The Met Office aren’t going to just hand them out and say ‘There you go’. They're also just meant to be a guidance, which the Met Office forecasters won't stick rigidly to when discussing them with their clients.

They're not pointless but they shouldn't be publicly available with the way they get misinterpreted.

Here, here

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November and November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 50% and 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For November, the chances of above-average and below-average precipitation are similar. For November-December-January as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 35% and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

This is an interesting update if you read the detail, I will post shortly in the MOD about it (as my comments relate to long range model output also).

[legritter]

Hi gang ,just got back from isle of Man lovely island, flood damage in some locations .Uk rivers falling at present but charts are showing some very wet synoptics over the coming 7 to 10 days and very interesting that the Uk is the place to be if you like  low pressure .last night was amazing crystal clear skys ,jack frost ,scraping of cars and central heating systems sending plumes of steam to make ghostly shapes .great forum and i will be about more, now i have more leisure time. STEllas all round ,and nuts for the squirrels, get stocked up on prozack  cheers gang .

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't know why people are worried about these, the Sept, Oct, Nov one now almost certain to bust, yet they are at it again with their huge confidence, in fact since the start of last winter, nearly every forecast from the Met Office at a lead time greater than 2 or 3 weeks has bust, including a continual forecast of a beast right the way through last winter.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s see if the milder weather arrives in November that the MetO are forecasting. If that goes bust it’ll make the whole autumn bust complete.

[Mapantz]

Jeez.. give it a rest!

Quote

The Outlook should not be used in isolation but should be used with shorter-range and more detailed (30-day, 15-day and 1-to-7-day) forecasts and warnings available to the contingency planning community from the Met Office.

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't know why people are worried about these, the Sept, Oct, Nov one now almost certain to bust, yet they are at it again with their huge confidence, in fact since the start of last winter, nearly every forecast from the Met Office at a lead time greater than 2 or 3 weeks has bust, including a continual forecast of a beast right the way through last winter.

But they do (or, rather, should) act as a salutary warning to anyone who repeatedly cites the efforts of their favourite armchair forecaster, without having a clue as to what probability even means? After all, the number of Snowmageddon 'forecasts' that are anywhere near being correct, on a consistent basis, is a vanishingly small subset of all the forecasts made...?

I guess someone must have bought copies of all those idiotic books of 'methods'...for winning the Lotto!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But they do (or, rather, should) act as a salutary warning to anyone who repeatedly cites the efforts of their favourite armchair forecaster, without having a clue as to what probability even means? After all, the number of Snowmageddon 'forecasts' that are anywhere near being correct, on a consistent basis, is a vanishingly small subset of all the forecasts made...?

I guess someone must have bought copies of all those idiotic books of 'methods'...for winning the Lotto!

No surprise to see you change your mind when its a publicly funded organisation that takes criticism (particularly one that bangs the drum for certain things shall we say), Yet you always say LRF's are absolutely useless in the model output discussion.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

This autumn looks like an epic bust for the Met Office Global long-range probability maps for the UK. The probabilities for a colder than average autumn haven't increased from the 0-20% bracket from June to August. Whereas the probabilities for a warmer than average autumn increased from the 40-60% to the 60-80% bracket!

Lets see how the probabilities for the winter months get handled!

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Summer Sun]

November update

December to February

Temperature summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 40% and 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-djf-v1.pdf

[sorepaw1]

That's  covered just about every eventuality. 

Good post and a interesting read.

[Don]

Unsurprisingly, they are largely sticking to their guns.

[Summer Sun]

December update

January to March

Temperature summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jfm-v1.pdf

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

December update

January to March

Temperature summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jfm-v1.pdf

Strong signal from that forecast that the rest of winter is likely to be very mild and wet.  

[Summer Sun]

January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For February, the likelihoods of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. For February-March-April as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

[damianslaw]

These forecasts have been very bullish in last 2-3 updates of much milder than average temps compared to normal, up to the 50% range.. however, they are averaged out for a 3 month period, and we have seen them change from month to month to single out the next month at times as something different, this happened in Nov 17 for Dec 17 and again in Feb 18 I think for March 18, last time they went for a colder than average 3 month period was Feb 18, for the March-May 18 period and that happened for 6 weeks only. In the March forecast they said cold in April only though, but it flipped to very mild so that was a bust..

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For February, the likelihoods of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. For February-March-April as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

Another bullish update for warmer than average conditions.  2010 was the coldest for 24 years.  Will 2020 be the warmest on record?

[Summer Sun]

February update

March to May

Temperature summary

For March-April-May as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mam-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For March-April-May as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-mam-v2.pdf