Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[DAVID SNOW]

Warmest category down from 45and50% to 35and40%.

Still no clear signal re rain though.

[Summer Sun]

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August and August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For August, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. For August-September-October as a whole, the chances of aboveand below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-aso-v1.pdf

[Don]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August and August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For August, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. For August-September-October as a whole, the chances of aboveand below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-aso-v1.pdf

No surprises with that forecast.

[DAVID SNOW]

It could end up being surprisingly wrong of course.

[Don]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

It could end up being surprisingly wrong of course.

Could do but I doubt it.  Warmer average is a fairly safe bet.

[Summer Sun]

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf

They must be anticipating a hugely above average Oct or Nov, because September on its own is no way going to be warm enough to warrant a 60% chance of warmest of 5 categories. I have never ever heard of a 60% chance of any of the categories at the extreme of either end of them, warm or cold before so that is huge confidence.

[Don]

On 30/08/2019 at 11:45, feb1991blizzard said:

They must be anticipating a hugely above average Oct or Nov, because September on its own is no way going to be warm enough to warrant a 60% chance of warmest of 5 categories. I have never ever heard of a 60% chance of any of the categories at the extreme of either end of them, warm or cold before so that is huge confidence.

They gave a 50% chance in their previous update, which I thought was at the top end, so to up that to 60% is incredible!  After breaching 21C in February, almost hitting 39C in July, perhaps somewhere will record 25C in early November during an exceptionally late heatwave?!

Edited August 31, 2019 by Don

[JeffC]

Wonder if it's a typo and it should read 50%?

Can't believe they'd work with that level of bias to warmth, even with the degree of insight they have.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Better buy myself a thicker coat then 

[Don]

12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Better buy myself a thicker coat then 

Only if you’re planning on going to Canada!

[Summer Sun]

September update

October to December

Temperature summary

For October and October-November-December as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for October-November-December will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ond-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For October, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. For October-November-December as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for October-November-December will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-ond-v1.pdf

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎30‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 11:45, feb1991blizzard said:

They must be anticipating a hugely above average Oct or Nov, because September on its own is no way going to be warm enough to warrant a 60% chance of warmest of 5 categories. I have never ever heard of a 60% chance of any of the categories at the extreme of either end of them, warm or cold before so that is huge confidence.

Their forecast off to a poor start with September coming in close to average...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I never take their long range forecasts with any seriousness.

[feb1991blizzard]

43 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Their forecast off to a poor start with September coming in close to average...

And October certainly isn't going to fall into a huge +ve anomaly either, baring continuous S-SW winds for the whole second half.

 

If the Daily express had issued a similar chance of below average temperatures forecast for the winter 3 months, you know what the reaction would be like on here.

 

Edited September 30, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎30‎/‎09‎/‎2019 at 10:47, feb1991blizzard said:

And October certainly isn't going to fall into a huge +ve anomaly either, baring continuous S-SW winds for the whole second half.

 

If the Daily express had issued a similar chance of below average temperatures forecast for the winter 3 months, you know what the reaction would be like on here.

 

60% chance is dead, what on earth made them go for such an inaccurate extreme figure??

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

60% chance is dead, what on earth made them go for such an inaccurate extreme figure??

To give that forecast, IMO you should have to be predicting strong +anoms in the 30 day forecast for September, else by deffo, there will always be a good chance of a return to climatology given the lead times of the other 2 months, i am afraid there is no dressing this up, the Met Office deserve criticism for this, they have all but contradicted their own forecasts.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Mapantz
removed snipe

[Mapantz]

Firstly, I believe some of you are taking the outlook out of context. It doesn't purely state there's a 60% chance of above average temperatures over the 3 months. It says a 60% chance of the combined 3 months falling in to the warmest of 5 categories. Secondly, there's still November to go.

Thirdly, there's no need to snipe at other (more learned) members.

Perhaps someone should email the MetOffice to get better clarification?

[DAVID SNOW]

No, nothing out of context, 'combined',  so November needs to be above average, in fact it needs to record breaking above average 5c+.. not going to happen.

The question was/is why did they go so high % wise in the first place,

[Mapantz]

42 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

No, nothing out of context, 'combined',  so November needs to be above average, in fact it needs to record breaking above average 5c+.. not going to happen.

The question was/is why did they go so high % wise in the first place,

You obviously have. Forget the combined bit.. warmest of our five categories

I don't know how you can assume a record breaking CET in November is needed for it to fall in to the warmest of their 5 categories?! As I said before, email them, because you are barking up the wrong tree.

From the Met Office:

Quote

Note that below-average temperatures remain possible, although this outcome is less likely

How many days have seen below average temps during Autumn, so far?

[Beanz]

I also interpret it in a similar way, in that November/December would have to be a very high CET given their prediction for Oct was barely above average.  No sniping here, but it seem odd to me.  

[Mapantz]

I believe some of you are definitely interpreting it incorrectly.

I mean, they also state a 10% chance that Oct - Dec will fall in to the coldest of their 5 categories. And, a 45% chance of that same period falling in to the warmest of their 5 categories. It doesn't mean that we need record breaking CET's for the next two months to achieve that.

You're all taking the percentages at face value and coming up with extreme numbers.

[Radiating Dendrite]

6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I believe some of you are definitely interpreting it incorrectly.

I mean, they also state a 10% chance that Oct - Dec will fall in to the coldest of their 5 categories. And, a 45% chance of that same period falling in to the warmest of their 5 categories. It doesn't mean that we need record breaking CET's for the next two months to achieve that.

You're all taking the percentages at face value and coming up with extreme numbers.

Do you work for the government and live in Downing St?

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

9 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Firstly, I believe some of you are taking the outlook out of context. It doesn't purely state there's a 60% chance of above average temperatures over the 3 months. It says a 60% chance of the combined 3 months falling in to the warmest of 5 categories. Secondly, there's still November to go.

Thirdly, there's no need to snipe at other (more learned) members.

Perhaps someone should email the MetOffice to get better clarification?

The problem is that they have a tendency to go for above average temperatures more than below average temperatures global-wise. It’s as if they’re comparing with 1961-90 as a base.

For example - look how ‘blue’ the below normal category is:

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The problem is that they have a tendency to go for above average temperatures more than below average temperatures global-wise. It’s as if they’re comparing with 1961-90 as a base.

For example - look how ‘blue’ the below average category is:

 

I think that is a fairly sensible way to go though, the globe is warming. The nuance is when it gets down to regional forecasting for shorter time periods.