Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[Summer Sun]

This will be interesting! The only way both the MO and the OPI can be accurate is if we only see a cold pattern develop from late Jan and have zonal patterns in December. Otherwise one of them has to be wrong; which one will be correct?

 

Well the CPF failed badly last 'winter' (see the top of this page) but then again I don't think anyone got the winter correct, but as you say its going to be very interesting given what the OPI is likely to be

Edited October 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

hopefully not the met office most depressing post of the year so far 

[Jezzer]

Just wondered if there is a website that has a list of UK daily weather records. eg, warmest October 27th, wettest November 5th etc? I've tried to find something on the Met Office but possibly looking in the wrong areas

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just wondered if there is a website that has a list of UK daily weather records. eg, warmest October 27th, wettest November 5th etc? I've tried to find something on the Met Office but possibly looking in the wrong areas

 

A lot of the daily CET records are posted in the CET thread, but I'm not sure about UK records.

[The PIT]

This will be interesting! The only way both the MO and the OPI can be accurate is if we only see a cold pattern develop from late Jan and have zonal patterns in December. Otherwise one of them has to be wrong; which one will be correct?

OPI may still be accurate but we end up in the wrong location for cold. I think the OPI is for the northern hemisphere as a whole so overall the northern hemisphere can be cold but we are stuck in the mild section. The met offcie is forecasting for us alone.

[Nick L]

Just wondered if there is a website that has a list of UK daily weather records. eg, warmest October 27th, wettest November 5th etc? I've tried to find something on the Met Office but possibly looking in the wrong areas

 

Off topic, but TORRO have a good record, although some records from recent years are missing (such as Oct 2011):

 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/lowtempsyear.php

[Chris K]

hopefully not the met office most depressing post of the year so far 

 

Well to be honest I don't think it is that bad. This release covers Nov-Jan...and it mentions an increased chance of positive NAO for the first half of the period...so up to approx mid-December. After that my interpretation is that of greater uncertainty.

 

And as Summer Sun pointed out, you only have to read last years to see we ended up with a different outcome for our surface weather. Although the MetO did state relatively low confidence.

[Jezzer]

Off topic, but TORRO have a good record, although some records from recent years are missing (such as Oct 2011):

 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/lowtempsyear.php

That's great thanks Nick, and yep, apologies for the off topic question

[Hocus Pocus]

Luckily their record for last winter at this point in time was awful, still I never take long range models as gospel as they rarely are right at such long timescales. I expect a big flip from them all within the next 6 weeks once they get to grips with the emerging atmospheric pattern, though that may be something akin to last year as the weather has a funny way of showing the best of us up.

[mountain shadow]

Hardly great probabilities being forecast though. Proper Winter to kick in post December 20th would suit most people down to the ground.

[JeffC]

Am I missing something here? Aren't these forecasters using models which have had input data from possibly up to 3-4 weeks ago when OPI wasn't factored in or El Nino gathering a little more pace?

Therefore with the benefit of a few weeks more data the models may well throw out something more encouraging for us coldies and we shouldn't go in Corporal Jones mode just yet! (showing my age there!)

[Summer Sun]

November updated Issued

 

December to February

 

For both December and December-January-February as a whole above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for December-January-February will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability of falling into the coldest of our five categories is near to 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

The whole tropical Pacific Ocean has remained warmer than average for over six months; however, the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies and the tropical rainfall response typically associated with an El Niño – Southern Oscillation event has yet to materialise. During the past month further warming of the central and eastern Pacific has occurred and a weak event remains likely by the end of the year, although there is also a chance that El Niño conditions will remain neutral.This factor is not expected to exert a strong influence on weather patterns in Europe during the next three months. In the Arctic, sea ice is now slightly below average across the basin as a whole. There is no clear indication whether these anomalies will have a significant influence on weather patterns in the UK.

 

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind in the stratosphere, has now changed to an easterly phase. In the winter months an easterly phase is typically associated with a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex can lead to a greater incidence of blocking patterns over the northern hemisphere, which would increase the probability of cold weather across Europe. However the predicted frequency of blocking remains low for this period, implying other factors have a stronger influence on weather patterns in Europe during this winter period Computer models are in good agreement in suggesting a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more likely than a negative one during much of this period.

 

A positive NAO is characterised by an enhancement of the westerly winds across the Atlantic which, during winter, brings above-average temperatures to western Europe. Later in the period, the confidence in the forecast of the NAO reduces, with computer models having a much weaker signal and the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases. However, the overall probability of below-average temperatures is lower than climatology, as can be seen in figure T2

 

Temperature Summary

 

Summary precipitation

 

Latest predictions for UK-mean precipitation favour near-to or above-average rainfall for December and for the December-January-February period as a whole. 300 The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As already mentioned in the temperature section, there is a consistent signal from computer models for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at least during the first half of this winter period.

 

In a positive phase of the NAO, precipitation is more likely to be above average than below average. Although above-average precipitation is favoured, uncertainty is still large; this is highlighted in figure P2, where there is a broad range of outcomes, but also a clear shift towards more likely wetter than average conditions. The atmospheric patterns which favour above-average precipitation also tend to increase the frequency of cyclonic weather systems crossing the UK and thus spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than is typical, particularly in the early and middle parts of the winter period. However there is only a small chance of winter precipitation reaching the values seen during winter 2013-14.

 

Precipitation Summary

[marksiwnc]

All they seem to di is state the obvious. Not much detail from professional meteorologist s really is there.

[feb1991blizzard]

November updated Issued

 

December to February

 

For both December and December-January-February as a whole above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for December-January-February will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability of falling into the coldest of our five categories is near to 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

The whole tropical Pacific Ocean has remained warmer than average for over six months; however, the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies and the tropical rainfall response typically associated with an El Niño – Southern Oscillation event has yet to materialise. During the past month further warming of the central and eastern Pacific has occurred and a weak event remains likely by the end of the year, although there is also a chance that El Niño conditions will remain neutral.This factor is not expected to exert a strong influence on weather patterns in Europe during the next three months. In the Arctic, sea ice is now slightly below average across the basin as a whole. There is no clear indication whether these anomalies will have a significant influence on weather patterns in the UK.

 

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind in the stratosphere, has now changed to an easterly phase. In the winter months an easterly phase is typically associated with a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex can lead to a greater incidence of blocking patterns over the northern hemisphere, which would increase the probability of cold weather across Europe. However the predicted frequency of blocking remains low for this period, implying other factors have a stronger influence on weather patterns in Europe during this winter period Computer models are in good agreement in suggesting a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more likely than a negative one during much of this period.

 

A positive NAO is characterised by an enhancement of the westerly winds across the Atlantic which, during winter, brings above-average temperatures to western Europe. Later in the period, the confidence in the forecast of the NAO reduces, with computer models having a much weaker signal and the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases. However, the overall probability of below-average temperatures is lower than climatology, as can be seen in figure T2

 

Temperature Summary

 

Summary precipitation

 

Latest predictions for UK-mean precipitation favour near-to or above-average rainfall for December and for the December-January-February period as a whole. 300 The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As already mentioned in the temperature section, there is a consistent signal from computer models for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at least during the first half of this winter period.

 

In a positive phase of the NAO, precipitation is more likely to be above average than below average. Although above-average precipitation is favoured, uncertainty is still large; this is highlighted in figure P2, where there is a broad range of outcomes, but also a clear shift towards more likely wetter than average conditions. The atmospheric patterns which favour above-average precipitation also tend to increase the frequency of cyclonic weather systems crossing the UK and thus spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than is typical, particularly in the early and middle parts of the winter period. However there is only a small chance of winter precipitation reaching the values seen during winter 2013-14.

 

Precipitation Summary

 

Slightly worrying as they are admitting the background signals are favouring some periods of blocking, as per the experts on the strat thread on here, but they are still going against that, although they still mention models as the main reason though, so some crumb of comfort there, I would rather have them on board though,

 

 

It also pours scorn on that cobblers I read the other day that they predicted a brutal Easterly in January.

Edited November 25, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

November updated Issued

 

December to February

 

For both December and December-January-February as a whole above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for December-January-February will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability of falling into the coldest of our five categories is near to 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

The whole tropical Pacific Ocean has remained warmer than average for over six months; however, the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies and the tropical rainfall response typically associated with an El Niño – Southern Oscillation event has yet to materialise. During the past month further warming of the central and eastern Pacific has occurred and a weak event remains likely by the end of the year, although there is also a chance that El Niño conditions will remain neutral.This factor is not expected to exert a strong influence on weather patterns in Europe during the next three months. In the Arctic, sea ice is now slightly below average across the basin as a whole. There is no clear indication whether these anomalies will have a significant influence on weather patterns in the UK.

 

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind in the stratosphere, has now changed to an easterly phase. In the winter months an easterly phase is typically associated with a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex can lead to a greater incidence of blocking patterns over the northern hemisphere, which would increase the probability of cold weather across Europe. However the predicted frequency of blocking remains low for this period, implying other factors have a stronger influence on weather patterns in Europe during this winter period Computer models are in good agreement in suggesting a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more likely than a negative one during much of this period.

 

A positive NAO is characterised by an enhancement of the westerly winds across the Atlantic which, during winter, brings above-average temperatures to western Europe. Later in the period, the confidence in the forecast of the NAO reduces, with computer models having a much weaker signal and the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases. However, the overall probability of below-average temperatures is lower than climatology, as can be seen in figure T2

 

Temperature Summary

 

Summary precipitation

 

Latest predictions for UK-mean precipitation favour near-to or above-average rainfall for December and for the December-January-February period as a whole. 300 The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As already mentioned in the temperature section, there is a consistent signal from computer models for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at least during the first half of this winter period.

 

In a positive phase of the NAO, precipitation is more likely to be above average than below average. Although above-average precipitation is favoured, uncertainty is still large; this is highlighted in figure P2, where there is a broad range of outcomes, but also a clear shift towards more likely wetter than average conditions. The atmospheric patterns which favour above-average precipitation also tend to increase the frequency of cyclonic weather systems crossing the UK and thus spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than is typical, particularly in the early and middle parts of the winter period. However there is only a small chance of winter precipitation reaching the values seen during winter 2013-14.

 

Precipitation Summary

So, they have explained El Nino, eQBO as being blocking factors - so what are the other factors that override these? Why can't they be explained to as what they are instead of just leaving them as 'other factors'?

 

The cynic in me thinks that the GCM's are set up to the warm ocean - warm continent theory and that no matter what they will predict a positive NAO. As ever we shall see, but I would love to see the met office explain what these other factors actually are.

[feb1991blizzard]

So, they have explained El Nino, eQBO as being blocking factors - so what are the other factors that override these? Why can't they be explained to as what they are instead of just leaving them as 'other factors'?

 

The cynic in me thinks that the GCM's are set up to the warm ocean - warm continent theory and that no matter what they will predict a positive NAO. As ever we shall see, but I would love to see the met office explain what these other factors actually are.

 

That's exactly my point, I get called a met office basher though for making this point.

[Hocus Pocus]

That's exactly my point, I get called a met office basher though for making this point.

Another vague and rather pointless LFR from the MetO, I think the main problem lies with these long range models is the warming bias they start from, no I'm not inferring climate change is the reason before someone brings that boring subject up. 

Edited November 25, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[chionomaniac]

That's exactly my point, I get called a met office basher though for making this point.

I think that in this case they perhaps could do a little bit better in their explanation of the other factors. I have spent the last few months looking at all the factors and would just like to know which ones they mean.

[Hocus Pocus]

I think that in this case they perhaps could do a little bit better in their explanation of the other factors. I have spent the last few months looking at all the factors and would just like to know which ones they mean.

They will be based on the oceans I would imagine as that would be the only overriding  factor I can see, yet predicting oceanic warming and it's effects is fraught with danger as many found out when they got burnt with the recent Nino predictions back in Spring.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think that in this case they perhaps could do a little bit better in their explanation of the other factors. I have spent the last few months looking at all the factors and would just like to know which ones they mean.

 

Yes, if there was no such thing as the Netweather strat thread then I probably wouldn't complain as I would be completely ignorant as to the effect of backround signals, but over the last 5 years, I would say that you have consistently out performed them with little at your disposal so although I don't think the Met office can be ignored under any circumstances, nor can this upcoming winter forecast, which I hope still contains some mention of at least cold spells!

[johnholmes]

Another vague and rather pointless LFR from the MetO, I think the main problem lies with these long range models is the warming bias they start from, no I'm not inferring climate change is the reason before someone brings that boring subject up. 

 

Can you explain what warming bias. The long range models start, as does any model, with what the atmosphere shows at T00?

[Hocus Pocus]

Can you explain what warming bias. The long range models start, as does any model, with what the atmosphere shows at T00?

I assume they start from a 71-2000 baseline John as they have to have a starting point per say? Edited November 25, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Bristawl Si]

I think that in this case they perhaps could do a little bit better in their explanation of the other factors. I have spent the last few months looking at all the factors and would just like to know which ones they mean.

Well i'm looking forward to your forecast Chiono (Netweather's) later this week.

Be interesting to see how it compares with Meto one.

Any clues for us?

[johnholmes]

I assume they start from a 71-2000 point John as they have to have a starting point per say?

 

not sure, I'll have a look on their web site, but how can that be a warming start?

[Hocus Pocus]

not sure, I'll have a look on their web site, but how can that be a warming start?

The globes accumulated warming over this period John.