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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up.

    In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2335

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    Forecast to be very deep not too far west of us, and it will be a very windy next few days for sure:

    post-17125-0-64632500-1359161344_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Batten down the hatches, this could be a biggy!

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    Posted Image

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    Shear is amazing and covers the whole country!

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    Gusty too!

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    Edited by Coast
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Gusts of 114 km/hr on North Sea coasts:

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    But look out at that second low coming in, 130 km/hr!

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    The Atlantic is back with avengeance!

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    Blimey Coast, that shear is literally off the scale. So we have a close to record low coming in against relatively colder air (even after the initial low today), bringing in tropical and moist air - guess we'll have wind, rain, flooding, thunder, cats, dogs and the kitchen sink coming at us in the next few days!

    I'm scratching my head for the deepest low I've seen in my lifetime (that I remember, being born in '84 and remembering details of isobars from something like the mid-90's) and I'd reckon that would be around the 960mb mark. Hence, 928mb is downright extroardinary and I'm concerned for those in western Ireland and the Western Isles, potentially the south and east coasts too.

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    Blimey Coast, that shear is literally off the scale. So we have a close to record low coming in against relatively colder air (even after the initial low today), bringing in tropical and moist air - guess we'll have wind, rain, flooding, thunder, cats, dogs and the kitchen sink coming at us in the next few days!

    I'm scratching my head for the deepest low I've seen in my lifetime (that I remember, being born in '84 and remembering details of isobars from something like the mid-90's) and I'd reckon that would be around the 960mb mark. Hence, 928mb is downright extroardinary and I'm concerned for those in western Ireland and the Western Isles, potentially the south and east coasts too.

    To put this beast into scale it has around same minimum pressure as the Category 5 Hurricane Andrew that hit USA in the 90s (at 922mb, this currently predicted at 924mb).

    http://en.wikipedia....urricane_andrew

    Obviously winds won't be that bad but still.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    I saw this on one of the American forums about a week ago, models have done excellently with this system considering it was +5 days out this was being projected. Snows one week, flooding and severe winds the next. Who says the UK's climate isn't variable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

    I would like that storm to position itself over the Grampians.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of lewis
  • Location: Isle of lewis

    Blimey Coast, that shear is literally off the scale. So we have a close to record low coming in against relatively colder air (even after the initial low today), bringing in tropical and moist air - guess we'll have wind, rain, flooding, thunder, cats, dogs and the kitchen sink coming at us in the next few days!

    I'm scratching my head for the deepest low I've seen in my lifetime (that I remember, being born in '84 and remembering details of isobars from something like the mid-90's) and I'd reckon that would be around the 960mb mark. Hence, 928mb is downright extroardinary and I'm concerned for those in western Ireland and the Western Isles, potentially the south and east coasts too.

    947 MB storm hit the Western Isles in 2005.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Very windy this evening and expecting gales to develop overnight possibly touching 60mph in gusts over some western locations, pressure falling away down to 990mb coupled with some very heavy rainfall.

    Lots happening this week and I think Monday has the potential to be quite disruptive due to rainfall and possible damaging wind gusts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Some very active cells heading into Wales, nice squall line!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    Blimey that is some low pressure system what is the record low pressure for this time of the year I wander

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    That'll be the Braer storm which bombed down to 914mb, January 1993.

    http://forum.netweat...60#entry2566404

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    Sferics being picked up in those cells over Wales? ...could get interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    There was a lucky ASCAT pass right over the centre of the storm at 12Z today. It reported max 55 kts, but it underestimates in very strong winds due to the chaotic state of the sea, so actual winds would have been much higher.

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    With ECMWF pressure field

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    ESTOFEX have a forecast out this morning:

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    Storm Forecast

    Valid: Sun 27 Jan 2013 06:00 to Mon 28 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Sun 27 Jan 2013 07:30

    Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

    SYNOPSIS

    The cold continental airmass is losing the battle against the warmer maritime airmass advancing steadily with a fierce westerly flow pattern all over the North Atlantic, driven by a massive 940-ish hPa low south of Iceland. The occluded cold front arcs all the way from Iceland to southern Sweden down to Portugal, and the maritime airmass is unstable, especially at the west coasts of Ireland (with gusts 20-25 m/s, Monday stronger) and the UK. The cold front will also move along with significant vorticity advection into the western Mediterranean, where cyclogenesis takes place, but instability is weak this time. The old system of earlier this week is now petering out around Greece and Turkey, but there is still some convective juice left in it. It may produce some waterspouts.

    post-6667-0-16164100-1359277319_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    GFS still has it down as a biggy:

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    Looks like 11 on Beaufort scale

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    75/80mph gusts in places

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    Posted Image

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