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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    I don't mind this spell at the moment least it's sort of mild, but i do love storms

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Long overdue some proper bombed out lows crossing the UK. Perhaps this is the winter to be memorable for a very strong jet and disruptive periods of wet & windy weather?! The first half anyway...

    Edited by Liam J
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    Long overdue some proper bombed out lows crossing the UK. Perhaps this is the winter to be memorable for a very strong jet and disruptive periods of wet & windy weather?! The first half anyway...

    be careful what you wish for !!!...... Edited by Mokidugway
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    Posted
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Events
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK

    Definately worth keeping a close eye on later next week. 

     

    The makings there for some dangerous wind storms!

     

    With a strong jet exiting America and very cold dry air aloft digging south into the warm moist equatoral Atlantic, it's a recipe for exceptionally strong winds.

     

    post-21019-0-20194200-1386456062_thumb.ppost-21019-0-85622200-1386456085_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Interesting the GFS well known for it's dartboard lows isn't really producing any. ECM seems to have drifted back to more outputs. We may miss out on the lows as the Euro high may be strong enough to keep them to far away and the suro high can stick around fro a long time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    A period of possible very stormy weather for Saturday 14th looking possible lasting Saturday into Sunday. Winds up to 60 to 70mph possible at the moment. A longer blow than the last one and a possible 2nd storm of winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    A period of possible very stormy weather for Saturday 14th looking possible lasting Saturday into Sunday. Winds up to 60 to 70mph possible at the moment. A longer blow than the last one and a possible 2nd storm of winter.

     

    GFS picking it up:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Another big Winter storm due?

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    GFS shows low to west of Ireland rapidly deepens in the right entrance of a strong jet streak Saturday morning, heading NE to the NW and N of Scotland by evening. Some uncertainty this far off over how close the low will be to NW Scotland and hence the swathe of strongest winds.

     

    00z GFS closest, with low centre just NW of western Isles at 18z Sat, winds gusting to 60-70mph easily over northern/western Britain, perhaps 70=80mph through Irish Sea and exposed western coasts/hills.

     

    post-1052-0-78719200-1386755289_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-44227500-1386755300_thumb.pn

     

    ECM further northwest with centre of low and faster, so strongest wind swathe would be further northwest.

     

    Another, perhaps even deeper low, scooting NE to the NW of Britain on Sunday needs to be watched too.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    06z GFS further northwest with the centre of the low on Saturday, but boy is it a deep low!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    At 72 hours still some disagreement,

     

    UKMO and ECM show a low crossing the Atlantic,

     

    post-6686-0-87522900-1386761676_thumb.gi

     

    The GFS 00z and 06z runs had something like this the low is flatter and its further South as well,

     

    post-6686-0-74690300-1386761739_thumb.pn

     

    At 96 hours the ECM and UKMO show a low to the East of Iceland

     

    post-6686-0-65549400-1386761824_thumb.gi

     

    The GFS has it slightly more South and a lot deeper,

     

    post-6686-0-93965200-1386761844_thumb.pn

     

    Either way they all agree on strong winds on Saturday for Western Scotland.

     

    Also the ECM at 96 hours forms another low in the Atlantic and looking through its hourly data it shows the strong low passing the NW of Scotland on Sunday afternoon between 12pm and 5pm. The 12z run had this as well but overnight the ECM did downgrade it slightly. Both the UKMO and GFS don't show this.

     

    post-6686-0-62379100-1386762188_thumb.pn

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    An early warning for wind on Saturday for Northern UK has been issued from the Met Office. The assessment also suggests more of N England & Wales may also be affected, they stress the uncertainty at this range. Excellent call from the Met a few days out ahead of last Thursdays wind storm. 

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=925F7246-B408-D60D-DA69-E145C4EFF4BE_1_DG&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386979200

     

     

    post-9615-0-44733600-1386766701_thumb.pn 6z wind gust chart for Saturday evening, 60-80mph.

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    GFS lightning wizard has a another biggy looking like being booked for Saturday:

     

    Posted Image

     

    By the time that hits, it looks to be on a par with last weeks event:

     

    Posted Image

     

    As this is looking increasingly likely to affect the UK in some way, here is a new dedicated thread to discuss the outlook for this particular event:

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78733-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-saturday-14th-december-2013-onwards/

    Edited by Coast
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    All the track has to do is shift about 50 miles south and Scotland/North England would be in a lot of trouble.

     

    Posted Image

     

    ECM and GFS still don't fully agree on the track as stated above, so that's still a possibility. One to watch for sure.

     

    GEFS control has it slightly weaker, but effecting more of the country.

     

    Posted Image

     

    And some of the Ensembles really want to see Scotland take a battering again.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    Yes certainly needs to be watched, the Atlantic will be a ripe for vigorous storm development in the coming period and only small alterations in track could put parts of Ireland and Britain at high risk.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    18z thankfully tracks this latest bomb NW of the country.

     

    Rapid deepening 983mb through to 951mb in 24 hours.

    post-7292-0-53641200-1386804014_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-57889300-1386804020_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-82621600-1386804027_thumb.pn

     

    Comparison in decent agreement.

    post-7292-0-23410200-1386804178_thumb.gipost-7292-0-98582700-1386804268_thumb.gi

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Downgrades continue still going to be very windy while Sunday has downgraded for NW Scotland but upgraded for North of England. Modells struggling to get a hold on this despite being well within the reliable time period. Firmly suggests we will have to wait until Friday to find out what Saturday maybe like.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Thu 12 Dec 2013 06:00 to Fri 13 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Wed 11 Dec 2013 21:59
    Forecaster: GATZEN
    SYNOPSIS
     
    Very strong and broad ridge covers most of Europe. The southerly jet stream will stay over the Atlantic and frontal systems will only affect Portugal and the British Isles, where maritime air masses with weak lapse rates are expected. Scandinavia will be affected by a storm forming at the cyclonically sheared flank of a strong jet streak. Given very dry air in the wake of the Scandinavian mountains, deep moist convection is not expected. 

     

     

    http://www.estofex.org/

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    I'm not surprised the models are having trouble pinning down detail as it's a very volatile situation developing over the Atlantic. Any one of the low centres could deepen to produce some severe weather in our part of the world.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1387756800

     

    Met Office FAX charts (surface pressure charts)

     

    Can only really say one word and that is Stormy at times and very wet with flooding.

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    Long range forecasters are mentioning that the Jet stream should 'settle' down.... what this means is that not such active wind storms, also the rains should ease down within two weeks? as winds change from the milder direction to a more cold one, still is cold now but talking about really cold air, but this means more likely snow rather than rain.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
    UK weather: what caused the Christmas storms and flooding?
     
    Paul Davis, chief meteorologist for the Met Office, explains why the jet stream brought such stormy weather during the end of last year
     
    The Christmas storms, which were some of the worst in twenty years, brought 70mph winds, huge tidal surges and left tens of thousands flooded or without power. Paul Davis, chief meteorologist for the Met Office said that very strong winds much of the UK experienced which was caused by jet stream.
     
    "The jet stream is a ribbon of very strong winds that blows for the majority of the time from west to east across the Atlantic. "It's caused by the temperature difference between the polar Arctic area and the warmer north parts of the north Atlantic. The contrast between the two air masses is enough to generate very strong winds and in the case of October, November and December. That was enough to bring some stormy conditions across the UK."
     
    This bout of weather has been unusual for the UK said Mr Davis. "December has been the windiest spell since 1969, but unprecedented perhaps not. It probably feels unusual because the last few winters have been fairly settled and cold and we haven't had the story conditions that just experienced."

     

     

    Video here:

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10569613/UK-weather-what-caused-the-Christmas-storms-and-flooding.html

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