Atlantic Storms 2013

[The PIT]

I'm thinking Oct87 and Burns Day storm. Still time for a downgrade which is the normal process but if it's same tomorrow evening Thursday will be fun.

[Coast]

Just cross checking MetO 5 day and they are down about 20 mph on GFS, but still highlight that middle to Northerly section of the country to receive greater gusts:

 

 

That's still not insignificant!

 

[The PIT]

Just cross checking MetO 5 day and they are down about 20 mph on GFS, but still highlight that middle to Northerly section of the country to receive greater gusts:

 

Met O 5 day Thurs windgust.jpg

 

That's still not insignificant!

Well it's got me excited. However not one predicted blowy day has arrived here this Autumn so far. So one has too.

Going to be interesting watching how the Met handles it. They were slow updating last time when large parts of the UK were outside the storm hit area. They still haven't caught up with the digital age I feel.

Edited December 3, 2013 by The PIT

[johnholmes]

this forecast is often close to what actually happens, so well worth bookmarking for those interested in the Northern Isles weather.

 

http://www.northisles-weather.co.uk/#DISCLAIMER

[johnholmes]

for info

The Thursday storm for the north

 

I did promise to give a link to useful sites to watch this form-deepen and track through Wednesday into Friday.

 

Also copied into the so called technical thread-don’t be put off by the title, it should remain easier to find than in here where no doubt by tomorrow it will be ‘lost’. Enjoy following and learning about the weather from this depression, have a look at the Net Weather Guides for more information on things you may not be clear about and of course ask questions.

 

The Fax charts

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Satellite charts with the infra red movie version perhaps the best to track but others also very interesting, for the Dundee ones you need to register (it’s free and easy to do)

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Actual weather, several places to bookmark

For actual weather on the Shetland Isles

http://www.shetland.gov.uk/icecast/default.asp

Regular hourly reports from sites all over the UK and abroad if you wish

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Track the low from buoy reports although many are south of its expected track

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

 

Charts showing the progress of the low

Obviously 6 hourly updates from Exeter of their Fax charts

And this site, remember it is a computer generated chart and is at times not as accurate as the Fax for the same time. It is very useful to watch its general track, deepening etc.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=UK

for those that understand the WMO code this list all the stations in the UK in the SYNOP code with stations in Shetland and Orkney fromm03001 to about 03017, to see what the SYNOP for Torshavn north of the track is giving the type in 06011, all of them report every 6 hours, 00,06,12,18 and some every 3 hours

 

For forecasts-see above for Shetland and below the full UK Met including shipping areas

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Liam J]

Even inland over N Britain gusts of 60-70mph are looking quite likely from this event, touching 80mph or so for more exposed areas. Certainly strong enough to cause some significant problems. 

 

Tomasz Schafernaker â€@Schafernaker 45s

Oh myyy...Thursday is looking seriously stormy across Northern half UK. Blizzards in Scottish Hills. Mega gales, damaging too. Stay tuned!

Edited December 3, 2013 by Liam J

[Richie V]

Yay, finally reasons to be cheerful. Looks to be the best storm since the 10/11/10 affair. Like pit says, not one windy spell has come off for us yorkies thus far this year. I'm in quite a wind trap here in Darton and need always add 10 mph to any forecast.

[Richie V]

12z is a slight upgrade to south yorks compared with 06 and 00z on xcw.

[Liam J]

Usually with these events they get downgraded nearer the time! This beast has steadily been ramping up over the last couple of days. 

[Richie V]

Only easterlys and cold downgrade lolol, the artic blast this time has been watered down..... Yet again

[sn0wman]

Usually with these events they get downgraded nearer the time! This beast has steadily been ramping up over the last couple of days. 

Very true, latest wind gust forecasts are higher than the storm on December 8th 2011! Also, there appears to be a wider range of severe winds included in this storm, I'm thinking areas further south will also get some of the 70mph+ winds. Quite bemused on the lack of attention in the media for Thursday's storm though; pretty sure by tomorrow the Met Office will alert them on the severity of this event. This one has certainly crept up on us, makes up for the all the downgrades of this 'Arctic Blast'.  

[The PIT]

The last few storms have been downgraded nearer the time and actually ended up being more than leave rattlers here. Long overdue a storm this one may be it. Highest gust soi far this year 74 mph 04/02/13. Highest all time record 85mph 11/01/2007 not sure about that one. I think it's corrupted data.

December 2011 nothing notable in that month here.

Edited December 3, 2013 by The PIT

[The PIT]

Very true, latest wind gust forecasts are higher than the storm on December 8th 2011! Also, there appears to be a wider range of severe winds included in this storm, I'm thinking areas further south will also get some of the 70mph+ winds. Quite bemused on the lack of attention in the media for Thursday's storm though; pretty sure by tomorrow the Met Office will alert them on the severity of this event. This one has certainly crept up on us, makes up for the all the downgrades of this 'Arctic Blast'.  

Will be interesting if they start cancelling trains or not.

[The PIT]

A notable downgrade this morning.a good 10 - 30 mph off the gust speeds and a large reduction into 80 -90 mph area.  It may yet turn into a insignificant event. This evenings forecast will be important. Another 10 mph off the speeds will make this into a normal winter storm.

[Liam J]

Perhaps some interest later next week for the Atlantic firing up big time, lets hope nothing like that ever crosses the UK! 

 

How many low pressure centres?!

Edited December 6, 2013 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Perhaps some interest later next week for the Atlantic firing up big time, lets hope nothing like that ever crosses the UK! 

 

ecm4.gif How many low pressure centres?!

I'll have the pair of them. Looks like ecm has gone wonky. Has it ate some gfs for lunch?

[Liam J]

I'll have the pair of them. Looks like ecm has gone wonky. Has it ate some gfs for lunch?

 

That goes for the GEM also! They need to blast right through that Euro high and save us from the boring nothingness lol 

 

Edited December 6, 2013 by Liam J

[Sainsbo]

That goes for the GEM also! They need to blast right through that Euro high and save us from the boring nothingness lol 

 

gen3.png

 

That seems like a fairly unusual position for a low that intense to be!

 

You don't see many like that - Let's hope it doesn't cross our paths.

[Liam J]

Closer to our shores on the ECM 00z run, a bit of excitement in the coming days and one to watch! 

 

Edited December 7, 2013 by Liam J

[Sainsbo]

ECM 12z has a scary looking picture at T+240. Far away, but just look at that!

 

 

Some of the ensembles are a little too close for comfort too.

 

Edited December 7, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Liam J]

Could be an exciting time coming up for storm lovers! After the rather boring spell we are entering this week! lol

[JK1]

Could be an exciting time coming up for storm lovers! After the rather boring spell we are entering this week! lol

i hope!

[JK1]

I don't mind this spell at the moment least it's sort of mild, but i do love storms

[Liam J]

Long overdue some proper bombed out lows crossing the UK. Perhaps this is the winter to be memorable for a very strong jet and disruptive periods of wet & windy weather?! The first half anyway...

Edited December 7, 2013 by Liam J

[Mokidugway]

Long overdue some proper bombed out lows crossing the UK. Perhaps this is the winter to be memorable for a very strong jet and disruptive periods of wet & windy weather?! The first half anyway...

be careful what you wish for !!!...... Edited December 7, 2013 by Mokidugway