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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Wukong

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Tropical Depression 27W has formed not far east of the Philippines. The depression has developed some intense convection over the LLC and may not be far from becoming a tropical storm. Intensity is currently at 30kts. The depression is forecast to move westwards through the central Philippines and into the South China Sea over the next few days. 27W should strengthen prior to reaching the Philippines as shear is low and sea temps remain warm in the area. Conditions are not conducive for strengthening in the South China Sea, with a cold dry northeasterly present, which should dissipate 27W by day 5, east of Vietnam.

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27W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Wukong, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Wukong looked impressive overnight with a solid central dense overcast, however, this has now been eroded by a rise in shear. Wukong has probably done intensifying as it nears the central Philippines, and will weaken due to land interaction. Recovery is not expected in the South China Sea due to cold, dry northeasterlies dominating here.

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Tropical storm Wukong struck the Philippines at about 00:00 GMT on 26 December.

Tropical storm Wukong struck the Philippines at about 00:00 GMT on 26 December.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall was near11.6 N,123.1 E.Wukong brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph).Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

201227W_12260812.png

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/data/201227W_12260812.png

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Wukong has dissipated over the central Philippines. Shear increased earlier than anticipated, and coupled with land interaction, this rapidly destroyed the LLC and it's associated convection.

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Wukong has made a very weak comeback this evening. The remnant low has been upgraded to a 25kt tropical depression as it moves though the South China Sea (SCS). Convection has returned over the LLC, which has become better defined, helped by good poleward outflow. However, shear associated with the northeasterly cold surge across the SCS is prohibitive to significant strengthening. Wukong's feeble second life is expected to be a short one for this reason as the tropical depression wanders west-southwestwards.

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Tropical Depression WUKONG: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 24 hours lead

201227W_2G.png

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Wukong has degenerated into a remnant low again. Shear has removed the convection from the increasingly distorted LLC. Regneration is not expected as the low continues southwestwards towards the Malay Peninsula.

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