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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

You dont know this, so dont put too much confidence into it! Today we have seen some major improvements up to 72hrs and beyond, im not saying we will, just saying if the low moved south we could go into the freezer (temporarily). As stated by Zakos, I dont think the pressure rise over Europe isnt a major problem yet as the jet is south of Britain.

The pattern has not changed!!!look to the eastern seaboard,the lows are flying out of there.The whole set up is virtually flat barring the odd ridge and then the change to colder weather deep in fi.There is no sign of any blocking or a split in the pv?The jump in the current output is only marginal and changes regarding positioning of low pressure areas but not in the real scheme of things.Things can change dramatically but imo not in this set up
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

The pattern has not changed!!!look to the eastern seaboard,the lows are flying out of there.The whole set up is virtually flat barring the odd ridge and then the change to colder weather deep in fi.There is no sign of any blocking or a split in the pv?The jump in the current output is only marginal and changes regarding positioning of low pressure areas but not in the real scheme of things.Things can change dramatically but imo not in this set up

IF high pessure noses into the atlantic anything could happen http://modeles.meteo...6-12-27-0-0.png and did it!!

http://www.meteociel...&ech=348&mode=0

There...i feel a whole lot better nowsmiliz39.gif

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Ecm is pretty grim reading but not unexpected i guess.Cant see any break in this set up really looking on the nh charts so i guess its a suck and see job.Anyway merry xmas guys and enjoy,whatever the weathersmiliz64.gif

IF high pessure noses into the atlantic anything could happen http://modeles.meteo...6-12-27-0-0.png and did it!!

http://www.meteociel...&ech=348&mode=0

There...i feel a whole lot better nowsmiliz39.gif

And then it vanished!!!!!rofl.gifrofl.gif check out ecm.merry xmassmiliz39.gif Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I am not very good with the strat etc...but is that goodbye Mr Vortex if you run the sequence on meteociel?

http://modeles.meteo...nh-10-264.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=10&carte=1

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

I am not very good with the strat etc...but is that goodbye Mr Vortex if you run the sequence on meteociel?

http://modeles.meteo...nh-10-264.png?0

http://www.meteociel...mode=10&carte=1

Watching that sequence you would certainly hope so. Although there is a time lag you wouldn't expect to see the continual train of low pressure systems steaming across the Atlantic continuing through the whole of January. All I would like to now see are some effects of this is the far reaches of FI on the GFS runs from now on.

Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

morning all not looking good for the flood victims for any dry weather ,even in deep fantasy world by the time we all go back to work it could a bit wintry at the moment

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I am not very good with the strat etc...but is that goodbye Mr Vortex if you run the sequence on meteociel?

http://modeles.meteo...nh-10-264.png?0

http://www.meteociel...mode=10&carte=1

It would certainly be a help .The split and displaced pv is obv a step in the rite direction but even the the residue and repositioning dont always leave the uk in a good synoptic set up.Any change or amplification tho would be a big step foreward from the current output.You know things are pretty grim when mr Murr nips online and leaves without comment!!!! Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Probably not what we want to see either

post-5114-0-26196400-1356335520_thumb.gi

In terms of getting to more a more favourable area for us, I've never worked out if, generally, its better to see it collapse or make it through the Maritme Continent (prediction?) Barrier.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

morning all not looking good for the flood victims for any dry weather ,even in deep fantasy world by the time we all go back to work it could a bit wintry at the moment

Yes indeed. Although I do like snow and cold, I'd actually welcome an Iberian high drying things up for a week or two down here right now! I actually find myself hoping that such charts come off but, just like when searching for cold, they keep getting pushed into FI and the constant run of Atlantic lows continues on the ECM this morning! Of course, I'd prefer cold and settled, but high pressure building from the south would seem to be the more likely option right now (even though it keeps getting pushed back)...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Last nights hope that the eastern USA trough may do us a favour is gone this morning with all the models pushing the energy east and flattening the pattern out.

Indeed we see a strongly positive NAO which is a bit of a shock. The output couldn't get any worse so I think from here the only way is up.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Good Morning Soggy Blighty. Looking at that UKMO model this morning, I would expect they will soon have update a storm warning for the end of the year. The wind will become a major player with a massive thermal differential between Green land and NW Europe in the offering.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

The output couldn't get any worse so I think from here the only way is up.

If one were to sum up the model outputs for December 2012, I think you would need to look no further than this statement!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

Last nights hope that the eastern USA trough may do us a favour is gone this morning with all the models pushing the energy east and flattening the pattern out.

Indeed we see a strongly positive NAO which is a bit of a shock. The output couldn't get any worse so I think from here the only way is up.

Seen a few members post this over the last few days, the fact that it's still being posted suggests we aren't at the bottom yet ;-)

I guess once we are doing our BBQ's sometime in January then we really will be at the worst point of winter?

I have a question though about the strat warming that is being forecast for 7th / 8th January, although this is in the strat models (I think) will the weather models take it into account in their output or does it have to happen first before we see changes?

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Seen a few members post this over the last few days, the fact that it's still being posted suggests we aren't at the bottom yet ;-)

I guess once we are doing our BBQ's sometime in January then we really will be at the worst point of winter?

I have a question though about the strat warming that is being forecast for 7th / 8th January, although this is in the strat models (I think) will the weather models take it into account in their output or does it have to happen first before we see changes?

Technically I believe once a such warming takes place its takes 2-3 weeks for any affect to take place where the weather is made in the lower atmosphere. The GFS might begin to show signs soon I believe in its deepest FI.

Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Seen a few members post this over the last few days, the fact that it's still being posted suggests we aren't at the bottom yet ;-)

I guess once we are doing our BBQ's sometime in January then we really will be at the worst point of winter?

I have a question though about the strat warming that is being forecast for 7th / 8th January, although this is in the strat models (I think) will the weather models take it into account in their output or does it have to happen first before we see changes?

Interesting question.

Sometimes they can be slow to react, especially with a SSW because with that you can have a quick change in the zonal winds with a reverse happening.

I'm not sure how much is factored into the actual NWP, the nature of these warmings means its often difficult to predict whether it will be a split or displacement of the PV and where those set up so generally I find the NWP can be behind the curve.

Some of the longer range tools may incorporate more about the strat, certainly a good question, hopefully Chiono et al in the strat thread may have a more definite answer.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good morning. Here is the Christmas Eve a.m. report on the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for Monday December 24th 2012.

All models show the Christmas Week as remaining very unsettled with rain at times for all areas. It is not going to be a white Christmas this year away from the highest hills and mountains of Scotland. Today sees yet another wave depression moving NE over Southern Britain enhancing rainfall and flooding issues once more. This clears away slowly East later today with showers following on behind. Christmas Day will see somewhat fresher conditions as Low pressure tracks slowly East over the UK with plenty of potentially heavy and thundery showers moving slowly East through the day. These continue into Boxing Day when a new sytem of troughs run East in the flow with yet more rain, heavy in places though with a strong wind on the back of it the front should move through more quickly followed by a return to squally showers on Thursday. A brief drier interlude is shown then as a ridge crosses East before winds freshen to a gale South-westerly at the end of the week bringing mild weather back NE to all with fronts carrying rain NE, heavy and most prolonged in the Northwest.

GFS then takes us into next weekend with a very windy spell with gales ahead of an active cold front swinging East later with a band of heavy squally rain moving West to East. A fresher spell of windy and showery weather then mves swiftly East before further Low pressure leads us into a mild and windy New Year with rain at times rushing NE at times in the flow. The rest of the run shows very mild conditions continuing with windy weather and further rain at times, especially in the North and West with colder weather bringing wintry showers on Northerly winds shown right at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the mild and unsettled conditions with the ensemble pack averaging above the long term mean for much of the time in a long fetch SW flow and frontal rain continuing to hinder any improvement in the environmental flooding conditions. There are a few very mild members while cold ones are restricted to the odd one or two, one of which was the operational in the far reaches of FI.

The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to pump East over the Atlantic in the vicinity of the British Isles for the foreseeable future.

UKMO for midnight on Sunday shows a deep depression to the North of Scotland and a strong Westerly flow over the UK with squally showers and sunny intervals following a previous band of rain East with the heaviest showers in the West.

GEM shows a very turbulent spell of weather over the New Year with gales adding to the rain problems of recently as trough after trough swings their way quickly across the UK in the flow delivering rain followed by squally showers although conditions do improve a bit in the South later as High pressure moves over France.

ECM shows a very turbulent spell too over the New Year with gales and periods of rain interspersed by showers the weather pattern likely, with it too showing slightly improved conditions for the South by Day 10. though still windy if mild.

In Summary the pattern remains locked in a totally Atlantic dominated set of outputs this morning. There will be further rainfall events for all regions over the coming few weeks not helping the flooding risk at all and next weekend sees the addition of severe gales in places as very deep Low pressure winds up close to NW scotland next weekend. The far outlook does show a long fetch SW flow possible in association with a build of pressure over France which would serve to direct the worst of the rain towards the NW while at the same time bring very mild temperatures to the lee of high ground in the East. For cold weather fans I can offer absolutely nothing of cheer today.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z op run is showing signs of hope for coldies in early January with colder blocked looking charts with arctic air over the uk, could this be the early effects of the strat warming working it's magic in the later output? I hope so. Until then the gfs and ecm 00z show an unsettled pattern persisting with spells of wet and windy weather seperated by brighter, cooler showery intervals, temps look average for most of the time, occasionally mild but also with a few colder interludes with some frosty nights but then later in FI looks promising.

post-4783-0-37154900-1356339536_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Chiono will be the best person to answer for sure, but if by looking at the very recent move of the Polar Vortex from Canada to Siberia it took the models around 5 days to get that shift in energy factored in, whilst we were seeing the Vortex move on the Berlin charts at 240 hrs we were seeing no response on NWP until around 96 hrs out, so definitely a delay.

In relation to the MJO and touching on the post above by lancia, the last large ensemble ECM prediction out to 21st Jan showed this..

post-7292-0-49362800-1356339545_thumb.gi

These phases are the NAO+ Phases and are not pretty on the eye in the analog charts. What has been in the background is the pattern for January of Phase 5, which if anything may slow the Atlantic assault.

post-7292-0-14090800-1356339660_thumb.gi

This blocky looking Atlantic has been toyed with on a couple of odd runs, so may be a development. One would think if we get to here then combine the state of the strat at even before this date then retrogression to a greenland high may be on the cards, if you add in the that the phases up after this for MJO are more pre-disposed to Greenland highs then there are 2 pointers towards this feature.

What may be the fight on the models is where the displaced vortex decamps to, would not suprise me at all if it was a straight up 50:50 between this teleconnector and a piece of vortex !

Phase 6 and 7 of the MJO analogs predict a developing NAO -ve signature, with phase 6 also being a pre-cursor to a Scandi High setting up, so just a wee bit more modelling to get through.

Could indeed be a helluva set up with the MJO in favourable modes right at the time of displacement of cold from the Arctic regions.

Winter over... I laugh when I read posts like that...

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Chiono will be the best person to answer for sure, but if by looking at the very recent move of the Polar Vortex from Canada to Siberia it took the models around 5 days to get that shift in energy factored in, whilst we were seeing the Vortex move on the Berlin charts at 240 hrs we were seeing no response on NWP until around 96 hrs out, so definitely a delay.

In relation to the MJO and touching on the post above by lancia, the last large ensemble ECM prediction out to 21st Jan showed this..

post-7292-0-49362800-1356339545_thumb.gi

These phases are the NAO+ Phases and are not pretty on the eye in the analog charts. What has been in the background is the pattern for January of Phase 5, which if anything may slow the Atlantic assault.

post-7292-0-14090800-1356339660_thumb.gi

This blocky looking Atlantic has been toyed with on a couple of odd runs, so may be a development. One would think if we get to here then combine the state of the strat at even before this date then retrogression to a greenland high may be on the cards, if you add in the that the phases up after this for MJO are more pre-disposed to Greenland highs then there are 2 pointers towards this feature.

What may be the fight on the models is where the displaced vortex decamps to, would not suprise me at all if it was a straight up 50:50 between this teleconnector and a piece of vortex !

Phase 6 and 7 of the MJO analogs predict a developing NAO -ve signature, with phase 6 also being a pre-cursor to a Scandi High setting up, so just a wee bit more modelling to get through.

Could indeed be a helluva set up with the MJO in favourable modes right at the time of displacement of cold from the Arctic regions.

Winter over... I laugh when I read posts like that...

This is one of the most informative posts I've read on here for a long while and explains in quite simple English that there could be light at the end of the tunnel (pretty long tunnel it must be said lol). Heres hoping January delivers at some point for a change. Thanks for putting the effort into writing it!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Winter weather remains on hold this morning with ECM keeping the pattern much the same as it is now however come early January its still hinting at build high pressure to the south sending the rain to the north west

Recm2161.gif

Recm2401.gif

This is something GFS keeps hinting at as well

Rtavn2161.png

Rtavn2401.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria

In Summary the pattern remains locked in a totally Atlantic dominated set of outputs this morning. There will be further rainfall events for all regions over the coming few weeks not helping the flooding risk at all and next weekend sees the addition of severe gales in places as very deep Low pressure winds up close to NW scotland next weekend. The far outlook does show a long fetch SW flow possible in association with a build of pressure over France which would serve to direct the worst of the rain towards the NW while at the same time bring very mild temperatures to the lee of high ground in the East. For cold weather fans I can offer absolutely nothing of cheer today.

As an observation, I have noted that your summaries often contradict posts that are above and below them. It may be that others cold ramp, it may be that you have no preferrence in any way, but last night, and this morning with the post by Lorenzo, there have been balanced posts about possible cold chances further down the line, whereas you flatly state there are no such developments. I'd be inclined to think, purely due to the fact it is mid winter, no matter how bad the synoptics in the short range, cold can't be that far away. 'The coming few weeks' takes us to February, and if it is wall to wall mild all the way to then I would be very suprised.

Edited by trickydicky
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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Yes, very informative post there from Lorenzo.

Noticed right at the the end of 00z GFS run a bit of WAA in mid-Atlantic,with high pressure being pulled north. Hopefully we start to see more of this in those runs that go out to just after the New Year. This kind of evolution hopefully.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119841231.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870103.gif

First attempt failed in Jan 1987 but a few days later, another attempt to pull heights north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870107.gif

Hopefully this type of evolution will start to become more evident in runs over the Xmas period, for that time in January.

GP seems pretty confident on a pattern change around about the beginning of the 2nd week in January and I dont think we can rule that out yet, despite some pretty dire runs of late for cold weather fans, after all my calendar tells me its 24th December!

Regards,

Tom.

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Just when you think the runs can't get any worse they do. The 00z GEFS ensembles look flatter and more zonal than yesterday with any ridging of high pressure from the South looking limited and probably temporary anyway as the jet eventually flattens it. The 00z NAEFS shows this too, with any ridging flattening and low pressure dominating again for all towards the end of the run.

naefs-0-0-324_fes0.png

Not a good chart.,

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS ensembles are looking mild this morning with just 1 shot at a very short lived cold blip

MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

Just 1 chance of a short lived cold blip from the Aberdeen ensemble

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png?6767676767

Edited by Gavin.
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