Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[snowmore]

Here is an animation of snow cover from Sat 12^th through Mon 14^th

http://www.wetterpool.de/prognosekarten.php

[BornFromTheVoid]

the strat thread has really picked up interest this winter.

It certainly has, and it's well warranted. Translating stratospheric conditions into tropospheric is still a little tricky though. Saying that, it's fascinating to see a new area of meteorology developing!

[The watcher]

I tend not to read Murrs posts anymore, because quite simply if it doesn't show a very cold pool of air heading into SE England then it's a bad run.

Regardless of what is being said of the Output at the moment, the potential is still there for either/or to happen and especially later on in the month rather than 5-7 days away. The mid latitude high in the Atlantic at +138 is what I'm keeping my eye on. That is OUR big chance to be in the spotlight in 10-15 days time.

[sundog]

I tend not to read Murrs posts anymore, because quite simply if it doesn't show a very cold pool of air heading into SE England then it's a bad run.

Regardless of what is being said of the Output at the moment, the potential is still there for either/or to happen and especially later on in the month rather than 5-7 days away. The mid latitude high in the Atlantic at +138 is what I'm keeping my eye on. That is OUR big chance to be in the spotlight in 10-15 days time.

indeed if that hp can ridge up to greenland that would suit us better i think and any cold spell would be more then likely longer lasting,if we were to get an easterly next weekend that would be a bonus but give me a gl hp any day over that.

[kippure]

indeed if that hp can ridge up to greenland that would suit us better i think and any cold spell would be more then likely longer lasting,if we were to get an easterly next weekend that would be a bonus but give me a gl hp any day over that.

There,ll be snow from saturday, then on and on till april....You,d like that sundog.

[Rocheydub]

Next weekends "potential" could see us on the marginal side of things though... I'm with the rest of you... Give me a Greenland/Iceland high any day!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Alright folks, anyone want to give me a quick summary as to our potential for the upcoming cold spell as usual I can't be arsed reading the MT!!!!

[The watcher]

At the minute I wouldn't like to call anything, a run up of the models today/morning would be cooler in the long run but very messy, any cold severe enough for snow is just a quick skurmish with Central and Eastern parts of the UK days 5-7. Thereafter on GFS, back to what we had most of December. On ECM however:

A HP ridges in from the East at day 10, but the Atlantic looms again. Not very promising for us I'm afraid to say this morning. There's a reason why the MOD thread gets excited by an Easterly all the time. Most of them will get hit directly by it. Ireland however, rarely gets a severe Easterly spell that delivers. I don't think however that our chances are gone yet. The area of concern in regards to what happens with the HP to our immediate West/SW is at days 7-10, so this can still change quite a bit. Then we have beyond that, which as ever, is subject to any volume of change regarding the current circumstances.

[stormforce 10]

apalling weather here. lashing rain all night and morning.

lots of uncertainty in the models today again. never seen it so uncertain before.

looks like this winter there is going to be no easy way to a cold spell. that damn atlantic.

[The watcher]

Better charts today, especially in regards to where the HP to our West ends up. I thought it looked a bit odd yesterday with how far South it was with so little low heights to its N and LP to its West pushing up WAA towards Greenland, I blamed this on the lack of strength in the Low heights to its West. Today, the LP to the West strengthened a little and its much further North. Not too much though as to erode it.

Edit: ECM spoils my party with a shortwave South of Iceland squeezing in between.

Edited January 7, 2013 by The watcher

[The watcher]

GFS tonight I would consider a compromise for East UK and Western areas (including Ireland), they get their Scandi High, we get our Greenie. Although, we get cold from both.

[Rocheydub]

This weekend cools down appears to be nothing more than just that. At least feeling more seasonal, for a while anyway!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

UK Met going for a messy picture next week with rain / snow as atlantic fronts try to make inroads - Ireland would probably be on the milder side of these fronts to begin - however if GFS is on the money, these fronts would overtime tend to be squeezed further and further south as the block to our north intensifies with the very cold air flooding the country bringing snowfall for some. On the other hand if ECM Operational is right we may have to wait another few weeks for something noteworthy.

Going to be fascinating watching all this unfold

EWS

[stormforce 10]

a much sunnier brighter day today after a truly shocking period of mild mush.

my spirit is lifted already. good old sunshine.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

a much sunnier brighter day today after a truly shocking period of mild mush.

my spirit is lifted already. good old sunshine.

Yes a friend of mine came back from Australia for Christmas for 3 weeks and started his journey back to Oz this morning - he was commenting to me last night that he has hardly seen the sun shine in the three weeks he has been home - shockingly mild, cloudy drizzly mush since he arrived without even a slight frost in sight.............he is now heading back to a heatwave and blue skies lucky sod

EWS

[Neiller22]

Looks like most off Britain getting snow this weekend! And you guess it. Ireland gets rain!! Going by gfs.

[Rocheydub]

Unless we get a more westerly correction, very possible at this range! Even likely!

[ronan]

Nothing new there then!! Initially we aren't gonna see anything! That cold pool isn't getting far enough west!! I do fear that for the remainder of winter we could get a repeat of Feb 2012 where the real cold stayed to the South East! Nice to see a change in outputs but I can't read that model thread anymore due to easterners getting all the action again!! Maybe things will change and things will push further west but I won't hold my breath!!

[Neiller22]

If anything I can't see it going any further west so I would say 90% rain for Ireland except possible the east coast that may get a wintry mix!! Will we ever hit the jacket. I really despise easterly's at times !

[markok]

still time for upgrades for Ireland but more so for the east coast. South Dublin/Wicklow generally gets the best from any easterly for some reason.

[Neiller22]

So u think like me the east coast could get a dusting here in Ireland. Maybe time to jump in the car and head to the east coast of Ireland this weekend!

[markok]

i've no need too, i'm already there haha, but i guess the dublin/wicklow mountains will get some sort of dusting of snow anyway.

[Rocheydub]

Models often overplay the easterly bias and shift things 2/300 miles west as we approach t-0, they did so last year and the previous 2 "good" winters we had. I see no reason why the next 2 GFS op runs won't do this again. Not so much as to prevent the high sucking up to our north of course!!! That's where the real fun begins!!!

[markok]

yep very true that last statement. all eyes are on the ECM at 6.30 and see if that's in agreement with the other models and if so we could have a very wintry weekend. still time for upgrades and downgrades but things looking good for coldies so far

[Rocheydub]

GEFS aren't great medium range... Didn't want to see that!