Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec

[snowblues]

It looks like a bit of a waiting game for the uk for any long lasting cold,even when the lows do try and head on a se direction.The next ridging high in the south is there waiting.Patiently waiting for the next pattern change

Edited December 20, 2012 by snowblues

[-uksnow-]

In fairness to the GFS, its 12z looks very similar to the 18z

Same timeframe..

[Panayiotis]

Lovely battle between warm and cold at 300hrs! Fi I know but cool to see.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Dampdorset82]

I know 204hrs is FI but how can the PV be placed over scotland producing -13c and the south coast be 7/8c? crazy

[Neiller22]

Very true Peterf!!! I'm only getting my ears perked up because for once its the northwest in with a chance!!! Though this could change by the morning !! Us poor souls in northern Ireland have very little else to look forward to at the mo!! Can't even get into town to shop due to protests!!! U would think this country could move on!! Anyway here's hoping to snow for all mid jan if strat forecasts come to light.

[liam300]

Cannot believe how quiet this thread is with the potential in the outputs for the northwest!! Could be a white Xmas for some. If this was showing as the beast from the east this forum would be in meltdown!!! It's unreal. Unless its the beast from the east nobody is interested !! Surely it's a forum for the whole of the uk to talk about the weather

Its because not everybody lives in the North.

[nick sussex]

Well the GFS 18hrs run upto 240hrs is certainly better than that dross the ECM 12hrs dished out however it would be very unusual to see the lower resolution manage to get those cold uppers that far south.

I think we'd need to see the PV edged east in future outputs, the further you can keep it away from Greenland the better.

The next low heading se around 120hrs is perhaps the best chance for a Xmas surprise, could we squeeze its track more se with a correction west.

The UKMO has a similar set up a bit later at 144hrs on its 12hrs, hopefully the ECM will move away from its horror show tomorrow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Deepest FI okay, things finally drying out! or thawing out in Scotland, the azores high ridging our way

[Jason M]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzonal !!!! Enough said!!!! Low pressure to our North, High pressure to our south. Not good.

For much of the run the polar front straddles the UK which results in catastrophic rainfall for days on end. A gobsmackingly awful run in every sense of the word and i truly feel sorry for those who are going to be in the firing line of the flooding.

Jason

Edited December 20, 2012 by Jason M

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So it seems like over Xmas and new yr although we have brief fleeting cold snaps, everything that we need for a cold spell is absent, we have hights to the south, with lows to the north, and the vortex looks like gaining strength and regrouping together, is all this expected then because I thought we were having contineous wave one and two breaking into the strat continuing to disrupt the vortex but this is everything the models aren't showing in the medium term , can anyone shed light on this?

[bryan629]

Lovely battle between warm and cold at 300hrs! Fi I know but cool to see.

on this chart i also noticed a very large hp to our west , what impact will this have, i know its in FI but just wondered what the outcomes would be.

[gaia rules]

I've decided to expect the worst with a strong Azores high, zonal conditions with the cold air tickling the north before more murky Atlantic air swamps us back. Surely this wont really change until the New Year. Could the SSW really change things before then?

[Neiller22]

I know Liam 300!! Foer those that live in the north/northwest it's a good run!! Unfortunately for the south it's as rank as it can get. But I'm for everyone getting lucky soon. Keep the faith. All good things come to those who wait. Well!! That's what they say

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know Liam 300!! Foer those that live in the north/northwest it's a good run!! Unfortunately for the south it's as rank as it can get. But I'm for everyone getting lucky soon. Keep the faith. All good things come to those who wait. Well!! That's what they say

But where are you neiller? south? north?

[swfc]

So it seems like over Xmas and new yr although we have brief fleeting cold snaps, everything that we need for a cold spell is absent, we have hights to the south, with lows to the north, and the vortex looks like gaining strength and regrouping together, is all this expected then because I thought we were having contineous wave one and two breaking into the strat continuing to disrupt the vortex but this is everything the models aren't showing in the medium term , can anyone shed light on this?

The major vortex disruption is in fi so it may or may not materialise like other events over the last month or so!!!!!

[Jason M]

I know Liam 300!! Foer those that live in the north/northwest it's a good run!! Unfortunately for the south it's as rank as it can get. But I'm for everyone getting lucky soon. Keep the faith. All good things come to those who wait. Well!! That's what they say

P

Not sure its as good in practice as it appears at face value. Uppers of -4 to -6 in a PM airflow will likely require elevation for meaningful snow given that things will be moving quickly and cold air wont get embedded. I'd imagine the temp would fall quickly with altitude so pennines etc will do well.

Jason

[Neiller22]

I'm in Northern Ireland gimmesomsnow! 120 metres above sea level!! It's a long shot I know but here's hoping!! I'm just for the models turning for the better for everyone. I have no preference to be honest. Off to New England in feb so hoping I see something there if the uk winter turns into a damp suid!

[johnholmes]

Great post

Yes with out any kind of block ,it's just quick hits of pm air ,even though the 850s get going its just to short notice before the next front comes in

The angle of jet might look slightly favorable but it doesn't cut the mustard

Look the showers may turn wintry for about 5 minutes before the next shortwave ,it wouldn't be a place you would like to be stuck in for to long ,unless you see Greenland blocking but that Seams not on the agenda at present time,

Ecm 2 out of 10

Gfs 5 out of 10

Ukmo 6 out of 10

To conclude Scottish mountains won't mind this set up best others can hope for I suppose is a possible dusting but they may be pushing it, further south and east you are the chances of even that would be nearly zero

I find the term 'dusting' is a touch odd, dusting implies dry=cold with snow falling as the dry variety?

With the predictions for very marginal away from the Cairngorms the term some wet snow at times seem a better description in these situations?

[Panayiotis]

on this chart i also noticed a very large hp to our west , what impact will this have, i know its in FI but just wondered what the outcomes would be.

Do you mean SW as that is the Azores high, and where you are seeing it, is its default location (its in the name really), having this to the south is not very good for a coldie, as this can move north and put is in the firing line, with low pressure after low pressure(zonal) however i will use this run's Fi as an example, but it can also ridge North and west if there is low pressure over Europe and leave us in a NW wind. This is much better if you want cold.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121220/18/384/h500slp.png

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm in Northern Ireland gimmesomsnow! 120 metres above sea level!! It's a long shot I know but here's hoping!! I'm just for the models turning for the better for everyone. I have no preference to be honest. Off to New England in feb so hoping I see something there if the uk winter turns into a damp suid!

Decent chance them of snow, on and off with mild sectors moving through

[SMU]

Well the models are firming up on the Xmas period- Nowt for us down south, but some very good/ excellent charts for the North & extreme North - IE scotland.-

Probably white Xmas for the west & North west of Scotland & periods of heavy snow in the Northern Aisles-

Signs in the extreme long term IE day 12-16 that the H5 anomaly is better - however its a slow boat to china,.

some very unusual charts also at 168 with 500 heights close to Scotland...

S

Edited December 20, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

I dont understand all the negativity. We all k ow its going to be well I to Jan before we have a chance of sustained cold. In the meantime charts like this are more than welcome and give some interest http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=228&code=0&mode=2

[igloo]

on this chart i also noticed a very large hp to our west , what impact will this have, i know its in FI but just wondered what the outcomes would be.

run it another few frames and you would more than likely have a bartlett HP there has bean plenty of bartletts in the past and the GFS has constantly shown these for the past week so one could well be on the way shortly

Edited December 20, 2012 by igloo

[nick sussex]

Some individuals like pants, so why use such poor lanquage?

As for the self proclaimed experts with their heights and troughs.

Am I missing something?

I've got nothing against pants! lol And its not poor language, sometimes you just have to use the term that basically sums up the output without a load of technobabble!

Sometimes I don't feel like getting all technical and pants summed up the ECM, unless its meaning has suddenly changed whilst I've been away pants= something you wear or pants=basically not up to much a bit rubbish.

I didn't realize this would lead to Pantsgate!!!

[Neiller22]

I'm working Xmas day too at Belfast international. The last thing I need is snow as the wife will kill me because if it snows i work all day but if its mild I'm home at 1pm!!! Only work half a shift!! Secretly I want snow so there could be a divorce!! Going by the models it's 50/50 but there is a chance!! Height building in Greenland so I think mid jan could be good!