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Paul

Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 19th December -->

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Another spell of very wet, very windy weather is now arriving, 48 hours rainfall totals paint a potentially nasty picture with the potential for flooding once more.

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Winds will be peaking in western Scotland over the next few hours

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It stays blustery throughout, but tomorrow worth watching for another peak in the windspeeds, in NE England and across parts of Scotland

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As I type the Environment Agency (England and Wales) have 41 flood warnings and 4 flood alerts issued - latest info here:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

SEPA (Scotland) currently have no warnings issued, but this may change..

http://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/

We have a weather alert issued for much of the country:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

Latest radar shows the current state of play with the first band of rain moving southwest to northeast.

post-2-0-31248900-1355902450_thumb.png

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

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Starting to get concerned for the South West and indeed a lot forecast for the Sussex area as well:

post-6667-0-45056300-1355902531_thumb.pn

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GFS highlighting that area too:

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+ Met Office:

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More wet than white in Christmas run-up: Forecasters warn of seven days of unsettled weather as rain systems sweep the UK

  • Met Office has issued a 'heavy rain' alert for southern England
  • East coast of England could expect gusty winds before it clears on Friday
  • Vicar has given a family his house after theirs was destroyed in floods
  • Around 18 million set to take to roads this Christmas
  • Friday is the busiest day for British Airways with 100,000 passengers

The weather will bring little festive cheer as the country is set to be swept by wind and rain in the run-up to Christmas Day. Forecasters are warning of an unsettled spell engulfing most areas as band after band of rain sweeps in from the Atlantic. The worst-hit could suffer yet more flooding, added the Environment Agency.

Recent days have brought pockets of mild, dry weather but that is expected to change today. It is going to be quite unsettled, wet and windy across the UK for the next few days,’ said John Lee, a forecaster with MeteoGroup. ‘We’re looking at seven days ahead and, in that time, it is looking unsettled with a succession of Atlantic systems coming to the UK.’ This did not necessarily mean a solid seven days of rain, he added, as there is a chance of some respite on Friday. But, he stressed: ‘It is going to be mild and unsettled until Christmas.’ Mr Lee said the east coast of England could expect gusty winds before the weather system starts clearing from Cornwall and Devon in time for the weekend.

Following that, however, would be yet another band of wet weather. ‘It is not uncommon for this time of year, so I think people should expect a few showers,’ Mr Lee warned. The rain and wind sweeping in have lengthened the odds for a white Christmas in the south of England. On Monday, the chances of snow in London were 5/2 but Ladbrokes yesterday said they were 6/1.

Last night, the Environment Agency also issued four flood warnings – three for South West England and one in East Anglia. The band of heavy rain expected to arrive in the South West early this morning would exacerbate an existing problem with standing surface water, officials said. ‘This will be followed by a band of further rain, throughout Wednesday night into Thursday morning,’ the agency added. ‘The outlook for the weekend is unsettled.’

Another 44 areas have been put on flood alerts, which are less serious. With these, the Environment Agency tells communities to be prepared for the possibility of flooding. Most of those areas are also in the South West, but there is also a risk of floods in the South East and North East of England as well as parts of the Midlands. Large swathes of England and Wales were brought to their knees last month when flood water surged through streets and down roads.

http://www.dailymail...mas-run-up.html

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It is to be hoped that the rainfall predictions are wrong, that is too much, as the link below shows some places predicted to get 3 inches in the next 5-6 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html

Very serious if those totals validate after all the rain in recent weeks leaving a totally saturated ground and some rivers and streams already above normal level for this time of the year.

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Thanks, Paul, for opening this timely new thread. Some worrying prognoses in the model output as we head towards Christmas and for sure, the omnipresent threat of flooding will again top the headlines now and again in areas previously badly affected. A key concern for here and now is the broad comparison between events unfolding now into tomorrow with those of 20-21 Nov. Meanwhile, with very good EC and MOGREPS agreement,the unsettled S-W regime shows little hint of let-up barring a temporary colder, showery NW phase post-Christmas but with a return to a W'rly flow thereafter into the trend period out towards 15 days. Clearly, we'd want to see some relaxation of this into early Jan to allow some drying-up to take hold, but there's little hint of any major pattern change as things stand. Not good.

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Moisture transport vectors for Southern England in the early hours of tomorrow:

gfs_mtv_eur33.png

Here's the system at 00 hrs tomorrow with the front over the SE and a second one sat over the SW:

PPVE89.png

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The NMM 06z totals keep a pretty similar theme to the earlier update.

post-2-0-87030600-1355920144_thumb.png

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I was just talking to my colleagues yesterday about the flooding risk yesterday - just a continual barrage of depressions stretching through until the other side of Christmas!

What with norovirus and now this terrible weather outlook, it could be a miserable Christmas for some indeed!!

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The NMM 06z totals keep a pretty similar theme to the earlier update.

Ouch, can't see much getting away from some flooding, serious in parts. Timing looks to be from dusk onwards, depending where you are:

LOC_20121219_0900.png

Saturday brings more of the same:

gfs_prec_eur72.png

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When is this rain arriving? The front looks well fragmented with hardly anything on it. Aha supposed to be tonight after a little hunting around.

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The worry is not just the amount of rain but how saturated the ground is already - across much of the country. I'm expecting flooding at least as bad as we had in November.

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South West on flood alert again as forecasters warn UK is in for seven days of bad weather - starting with wall of rain to hit whole country tonight

article-2250088-1693B14E000005DC-773_634x404.jpg

A great swathe of driving rain is set to engulf the entire country today, with downpours and fierce winds putting a dampener on any hope of festive snow in the run-up to December 25. Forecasters warn that band after band of wet weather will sweep in from the Atlantic throughout the week, with the worst-hit areas at risk of more flooding. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for rain today, tomorrow and Saturday, while the Environment Agency has 45 flood warnings and alerts out.

Recent days have brought pockets of mild, dry weather to Britain, but that is all expected to change today. ‘It is going to be quite unsettled, wet and windy across the UK for the next few days,’ said John Lee, a forecaster with MeteoGroup. ‘We’re looking at seven days ahead and, in that time, it is looking unsettled with a succession of Atlantic systems coming to the UK.’ Although there is a chance of some respite from the non-stop rain on Friday, he stressed: ‘It is going to be mild and unsettled until Christmas.’

Mr Lee said the east coast of England could expect gusty winds before the weather system starts clearing from Cornwall and Devon in time for the weekend.

Following that, however, would be yet another band of wet weather. ‘It is not uncommon for this time of year, so I think people should expect a few showers,’ Mr Lee warned.

article-2250088-16947601000005DC-15_634x375.jpg

Last night, the Environment Agency issued three flood warnings for South West England and one in East Anglia. The band of heavy rain expected to arrive in the South West early this morning would exacerbate an existing problem with standing surface water, officials said. ‘This will be followed by a band of further rain, throughout Wednesday night into Thursday morning,’ the agency added. ‘The outlook for the weekend is unsettled.’

A further 41 areas have been put on flood alerts, mostly in the South West, but also in the South East and North East of England as well as parts of the Midlands. Large swathes of England and Wales were brought to their knees last month when flood water surged through streets and down roads. Communities were cut off and dozens of residents were forced to flee their homes. Rivers burst their banks and fields were flooded as several days of rain fell in just a few hours.

article-2250088-1693D475000005DC-136_634x459.jpg

article-2250088-1693D47A000005DC-485_634x459.jpg

http://www.dailymail...mas-run-up.html

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Well we have quite heavy rain bursts now in Sussex. I am quite glad that I am dry and warm with the fire on at home (two poorly children to accompany me) but hope that the flooding isn't too severe especially in the SW. For Sussex we are forecast around 35mm before the end of Friday - that is quite enough but shouldn't lead to too much flooding hopefully. Those in the SW will be getting twice as much so keep safe.

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Well we have quite heavy rain bursts now in Sussex.

Right over here Ed:

post-6667-0-54510900-1355925318_thumb.jp

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I think the SW will have a worry with this system ,a far bigger worry is Saturday's system IMO. This could well drop as much rain over the SW and many areas may struggle to cope with 2 large rain events so close to each other.

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Flood warnings as heavy rain heads towards Sussex

Flood warnings have been issued for West Sussex as large swathes of heavy rain race towards the county this afternoon. Up to 6cm of rain is expected to have fallen in places by the end of tomorrow (Thursday, December 20). Environment Agency workers are this afternoon frantically clearing rivers, which are already full to bursting after two weeks of wet weather, in an attempt to reduce the possible carnage.

With the ground already saturated, the wet weather is likely to lead to property flooding from rivers and surface water, as well as disruption to road and rail networks. Craig Woolhouse, flood risk manager at the Environment Agency, said: "Our teams are out around the clock to minimise the risks and prepare for flooding, clearing drainage channels and ensuring that flood defences are working properly. "We urge people to keep up to date with the weather forecast and local news overnight and remain prepared for flooding in their area by signing up to receive free flood warnings and staying away from dangerous flood water."

Forecasters this week warned people to expect up to seven days of unsettled conditions as a series of wet weather systems engulf the UK.

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10117867.Flood_warnings_as_heavy_rain_heads_towards_Sussex/

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Got 60mph gusts early this morning really bad here the wind usually comes off the Atlantic with a Westerly direction for these strong winds but this is from the South East with 60mph gusts is usually unheard of.

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Lots of rain over the next 6 days says GFS, more flooding on the way I guess,

144-777_pth5.GIF

+144

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I can see the next batch of rain coming into the South West approaches. Looks like being a wet period ahead, I hope it doesn't spoil too many peoples Christmas.

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Not been a good day here- not least when I was stood waiting to get into a funeral this morning- it was literally sheeting down.

Flooding starting to show it's hand in Plymouth now.

Traffic has been delayed at rush hour at sites across Plymouth including Tavistock Road, Outland Road and the A38 at Deep Lane as well as other parts of Plympton.

There were also delays on the A388 at Saltash.

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Massive upgrade for rainfall in my back yard - it's literally happened in the last few hours, and we're now under a warning.

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Yes, a lot of rainfall in the next week if the GFS was to come off

150-777.GIF?19-12

Yes indeed Mark and a lot of that rainfall starting today and in to the weekend.

Images courtesy of net Weather Extra.

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That low complex just to our west throwing several bands of rain across the UK in the next few days.

Worryingly high totals expected further west as your image showed-hence the M.O warnings.

http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

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We already have superficial flooding from run-off, and the main event has yet to arrive. Every field and lane is awash with rainwater. Never seen it so bad. Council have been out clearing ditches.

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How much rainfall triggers a met office warning just out of interest?

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