Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[snow1975]

Potential for some surprise snowfalls next week, especially later on Boxing Day onwards as colder uppers come in from the west

A complex low over the UK on Xmas Day. Uppers are a bit high, around 0C. Possible evaporative snow events??? in any heavier precip and slack winds.

Here's the latest GEM 12z for Xmas DAy. More potential for snow later in the day in the north and west.

Edited December 19, 2012 by snow1975

[LomondSnowstorm]

Potential for some surprise snowfalls next week, especially later on Boxing Day onwards as colder uppers come in from the west

A complex low over the UK on Xmas Day. Uppers are a bit high, around 0C. Possible evaporative snow events??? in any heavier precip and slack winds.

Hmm possible, if the pattern backs a bit further southeast though it could become very interesting. Both the ECM and the GEM this morning were keen on developing a Scandi trough which to me looks to be the most plausible route to a cold spell from the kind of charts we're seeing at +144 at the moment (model consistency today is a lot better than it has been for weeks).

[snow1975]

Notice the control at the bottom of the pack around Hogmanay showing -10C 850hPa's.

[skifreak]

The NMM 48hour accumulated precipitation cell with the highest total on the last run was 115mm over Deeside. Glenshee Ski Area looks like it could be on for somewhere between 60-90mm rain equivalent precipitation if this verifies. These totals are quite astonishing for that part of the world and I notice SEPA has a flood watch out for Aberdeen City covering surface water flooding, river flooding and coastal flooding with the strong SE winds combining with high tides. I guess areas that suffered damage to their harbours and sea defenses last week are getting a bit restless with the forecast outlook?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Incoming:

My bet on a white christmas in Belfast isn't looking like a bad shout...

[BurntFishTrousers]

Gonna be persisting doon the morn: http://www.sepa.org.uk/about_us/news/2012/sepa_warns_of_potential_floodi.aspx

[mistyqueen]

Potential for some surprise snowfalls next week, especially later on Boxing Day onwards as colder uppers come in from the west

A complex low over the UK on Xmas Day. Uppers are a bit high, around 0C. Possible evaporative snow events??? in any heavier precip and slack winds.

Here's the latest GEM 12z for Xmas DAy. More potential for snow later in the day in the north and west.

Oh, now that looks a bit more like it, but I'm not holding my breath!

[Highland Snow]

Gonna be persisting doon the morn: http://www.sepa.org....ial_floodi.aspx

Oh dear, the Almond could be facing another catastrophic inundation like January 2011 when the whole flow pattern of the river changed below Almondbank bridge.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Highland Snow

[LomondSnowstorm]

Apparently, we're locked into a mild pattern with no sign of an exit:

[Highland Snow]

Apparently, we're locked into a mild pattern with no sign of an exit:

Despite exam pressure you're still a hoot LSS.

[LomondSnowstorm]

About half of the EPS members have -5C or below uppers into central Scotland by midday on Boxing Day. Remember of course that with northwesterlies we don't have the same hassles as we do with easterlies: with easterlies anything above -8C is potentially suspect, and anything above -6C would be unlikely to give any low ground snowfall, but often the bare minimum of -4/-5C can be enough providing decent enough precipitation. And a setup where the winds are too northerly with the cold uppers not quite potent enough for more widespread snowfall would also be welcome in providing a nice cold, dry interlude. Still a long way to go with this but a few further tweaks to the pattern and we could well be on for a more long lived and potent spell lasting into the New Year.

[Northernlights]

Dull windy day with some rain this evening. Cold most of the day with the temperature about 4.0c but 5.7c currently.

[thebigyin]

hi all

that is the rain just started here. that is us for the next wee while here.

have a look at the MetO 5 day forecast for here - worth a giggle (although maybe not, if it really does that then quite serous I suspect? High tides and flooding on east coast in places still sore from last time?)

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

If that is snow on the hills then ye-ha - and looks like it will be. Heading to Loch tay for chrimbo on Friday. Aberfeldy forecast does not look much better.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

with temps at 4-5C then wont need to get too high to see some deep snow - perhaps 500m or so. I suspect I will be a wondering!

Thanks to all for the weather analysis posts on this part of the site. saves trawling through a load of cr@p in the model thread. despite what you might think by the posts on model thread then for us lot there is some promise, eh.

Have a great festive break - all the best.

Edited December 19, 2012 by thebigyin

[Cheggers]

So looks like we may need this for a wee while

[Hairy Celt]

Nearly lost a car door today thanx to the wind up north - not many hills there to slow the wind. Further tales of coastal destruction from Caithness too.

Then the rain came on patchily, nowt like further south.

Anyone else still to start the Xmas shopping? Oddbins 1st I reckon

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's like all my mildest dreams come true:

[blitzen]

Nearly lost a car door today thanx to the wind up north - not many hills there to slow the wind. Further tales of coastal destruction from Caithness too.

Then the rain came on patchily, nowt like further south.

Anyone else still to start the Xmas shopping? Oddbins 1st I reckon

Yep, done and dusted HC! Last of it today. Great feeling.

[A Winter's Tale]

Shocking conditions here in the afternoon it what was a grey and benign day - once the front arrived, skies became very dark and very heavy rain was dumped all over the region for a period. And Flooding concerns continue in the run-up to Christmas across parts of Scotland and the rest of the UK.

It looks like the south easterly flow for the weekend is not looking as promising as it has been on past runs but some parts could see some brief wintryness from it - especially Shetland. Christmas Day could be unsettled - who knows whether it will be a white one but with a bit of luck, if the charts during the coming days ugrade the uppers in the north westerly flow later on the big day then there could indeed be a white christmas for some.

After seeing the potential for eastern areas during this weekend be downgraded - for Boxing day - the focus switches to more western areas with potential for snow showers to be fed inland in a decent north westerly flow.

This scenario is certainly an exciting one.

So all and all, the model output is particulary changeable at the moment and at short time-frames aswell. There's some certainly some active weather to be looking out for during the run-up to Christmas and at the same time there's the potential for some festive magic - and although it's near impossibe to define what could follow in the new year, I'd say that things are looking decent for a more enhanced potential for wintry joy across Scotland during the rest of the winter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure about the earth but I think the Tay Valley is going to take a hell of a beating over the next 48 hours. Stay safe everyone.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=56.23481781376518&lon=-3.2075471698113205

Goodness me, 35% chance of a white Christmas, 50% chance of snow boxing day onwards. The only slightly less cold runs are those which have a shortwave nearby I believe, and a large number are sub -8C by the morning of the 27th.

[lorenzo]

We wish you a merry pub run and a pertur - bation 6.

[Allyw12]

I'm not sure about the earth but I think the Tay Valley is going to take a hell of a beating over the next 48 hours. Stay safe everyone.

I wish it was Snow and not rain

[edo]

been busy tyring to decide on new TV...been getting a bit over analytical and spent 5 hrs today reading reviews to make a decision then discover its out of stock all over....therefore have decided to get back to weather and hmmmmm may have rejoined the models today at right time although concerned how wet its goona be for my crimbo day/night out on Friday

[Hairy Celt]

Seems to be a tendency to colder after Xmas... or could be a case of

Anyhoo, off to toon in the morn: get in, get done, get out quick. Then tsss aaaah.

Is there a theme developing here?

[Hairy Celt]

been busy tyring to decide on new TV...been getting a bit over analytical and spent 5 hrs today reading reviews to make a decision then discover its out of stock all over....therefore have decided to get back to weather and hmmmmm may have rejoined the models today at right time although concerned how wet its goona be for my crimbo day/night out on Friday

I have a tv for sale if you get desperate. Weighs a ton mind and the vertical hold is pretty poor . Could be used as a contraceptive if dropped from 5m on to 'courting' couple.