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Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

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Here's the latest thread to discuss your regional weather and local observations fro Scotland

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Evening peeps! Been below freezing up here for the last three nights, but a big change on the way, eh? I've been following with interest the 'will it, won't it snow' comments. I still think it's too early to forecast anything with any accuracy, but for those of you who love the white stuff, I do hope you get a decent dump sometime soon!

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Been cold all day near strathy, started a bit misty & cloudy but cleared middle of the day, soon followed by a glorious sunset & rapid re-icing of all surfaces that had defrosted. 'Yee haa!' on winter tyres. <Bump> 'fark not again!!' on foot.

Not gonna torture myself with looking at models yet, wait till home i think. I have a phone screen of 5cm x 7cm & a browser designed by a sadistic warthog on morphine...

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With 72 hours about as far out as I can trust just now given the run to run flip around, this from ECM is good..

post-7292-0-11345500-1355854573_thumb.gi

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With 72 hours about as far out as I can trust just now given the run to run flip around, this from ECM is good..

post-7292-0-11345500-1355854573_thumb.gi

Not according to the Mayan's!!! rofl.gif

526030_504280699616988_319635940_n.jpg

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With 72 hours about as far out as I can trust just now given the run to run flip around, this from ECM is good..

post-7292-0-11345500-1355854573_thumb.gi

Yes, +96 is good too and +120 just needs a slight shift west to follow the GFS. So I'm pretty happy, since all the models seem to have been doing for days is shifting that high west.

Today's 12Z for the day after doomsday:

ECH1-96.GIF?18-0

Yesterday:

ECH1-120.GIF?12

Sunday:

ECH1-144.GIF?12

Same again over the next 48 hours and the high will be extending all the way to Greenland!

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Maybe the Mayan's were right, but it's to be snaw rather than fireballs?

Could think of worse ways to go.

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A wee Glasgow guy decides to go to New York to help them rebuild after Superstorm Sandy.

While he is working away, President Obama pays an official visit.

Talking to the cops, firemen & rescue workers he hears the wee mans accent..

''Hey fella'' says the President '' Where you from?''

''Am fae Govan'' says the wee man.

''Govan? What states that in ?'' asks Obama

Same state as this place mate.

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With 72 hours about as far out as I can trust just now given the run to run flip around, this from ECM is good..

post-7292-0-11345500-1355854573_thumb.gi

FI begins pretty much at T+48. Oocha. Nail biting stuff.

t850Aberdeenshire.png

Hope everyone has been nice and not naughty. He's gonna find out you know..

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FI begins pretty much at T+48. Oocha. Nail biting stuff.

t850Aberdeenshire.png

Hope everyone has been nice and not naughty. He's gonna find out you know..

Does this count as being naughty? Ach well......(Careful please, NOT for the kiddies!)

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I have a phone screen of 5cm x 7cm & a browser designed by a sadistic warthog on morphine...

I FEEL FOR YE HC

CURRENTLY -0.7C AND A NICE STARRY NIGHT. MON THE SNAW IN THE MODELS

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Lovely patch of blue uppers creeping across the North Sea...

post-7292-0-96102200-1355867463_thumb.pn

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LOL @ this chart.. Ridiculous difference across the UK.

post-7292-0-60874900-1355868244_thumb.pn

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Big Baws bad fog tonight, drove the last bit back to Kelso at 30mph and still felt like I was going to crash at any minute. Fog before snow...although I think that's just coincidence :lol:

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Starry frosty night now currently -2c. Been a pretty frosty December. Cooling the ground down nicely for the week end?

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so still no flecking clue what is going on........big baws snaw or a mild wet flow...... small upgrades in short term happening in last few runs could be a slow burner that becomes decent for many of us.....wonder if thats better than watching full scale beast charts anxiously waiting for them to materialise

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Had a slightly drunken look at the pub run, I'm going to sit on the fence I'm afraid, still an insane amount of differences between runs (correct me if that's just the drink) but there is a massive Greenland high on the control which comes from nowhere and is yet another possible outcome. Tomorrow morning we may know things better but for now all I know is it's 3.2C and dropping with clear skies and that's good enough for me.

LS

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The morns GFS

h850t850eu.png

Could be some very heavy snaw for inland/uplands

prectypeuktopo.png

ECM

ecmt850.096.png

I'll await LS or lorenzo's expert opinions....

EDIT.

End of the ECM looks interesting too:

ecm500.240.png

ecmt850.240.png

Hagar on sentry duty on that one!

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Looks interesting for snow on Saturday evening I reckon if we see cold enough uppers coming in and there is very much the potential for a Greenland high to build now but what is genuinely concerning is the amount of rain (and at about 300m+ inland snow) that is likely to fall just in the next 48 hours before we even consider Friday or Saturday.

post-9298-0-55176300-1355906872_thumb.jp

Those are pretty big baws totals, with the biggest of them likely to be falling as snow, so I suspect the ski runs will be well stocked up should we ever end up with some rogue dry surface cold setup (it's been so long I've forgotten what a mid latitude high looks like).

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4.9c/3.7c/E. Thanks for the update SS. I don't know about anyone else, but I have a serious case of model fatigue now. At the stage of thinking let it do what it's gonna do!

The approaching rain is a serious concern for some now. What a way to spend Christmas.....on floodwatch!

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It was 14c on Christmas day last year! This year there is a marginal chance of snow so that's something for us all to be thankful for. The good thing is whatever happens down here the Ski centres are having a fantastic season!drinks.gif

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