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Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>


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So no thunderstorms or anything I mean!!!

Just because it isn't a system associated with making thunderstorms doesn't mean it isn't a trouble maker. The ground is saturated, so all rain runs straight into the rivers, making them rise rapidly, hence all of the warnings out.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Just because it isn't a system associated with making thunderstorms doesn't mean it isn't a trouble maker. The ground is saturated, so all rain runs straight into the rivers, making them rise rapidly, hence all of the warnings out.

Quite - it's truly troubling as it stands.

High-res models (1.5km) pick out orographic enhancement as expected with 50-60mm event accumulation supported as a 60% PROB for Forest of Dean, also the likes of Quantocks, Brendon Hills, and other uplslopes across region facing SE. Widely 20-40mm elsewhere. It ain't going to be pretty - especially looking at the wave enhancement currently.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Quite - it's truly troubling as it stands.

High-res models (1.5km) pick out orographic enhancement as expected with 50-60mm event accumulation supported as a 60% PROB for Forest of Dean, also the likes of Quantocks, Brendon Hills, and other uplslopes across region facing SE. Widely 20-40mm elsewhere. It ain't going to be pretty - especially looking at the wave enhancement currently.

Any early thoughts on Friday/Saturday Ian?

That one seems just as troubling too, and after the rainfall over the next 24 hours, there won't be any room for the rainfall forecast over the weekend.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Any early thoughts on Friday/Saturday Ian?

That one seems just as troubling too, and after the rainfall over the next 24 hours, there won't be any room for the rainfall forecast over the weekend.

There's already surface flooding in some parts of S. Glos on my way home tonight. All the drainage Rhines surrounding fields around here are full so I'm expecting some roads to be impassable on my way to work tomorrow. Quite worrying for many with more rain forecast. I'm just lucky I live far away enough from the nearby stream but I really feel for those waiting and watching nearby rivers very carefully.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Hi, the orographic enhancement that Ian mentions - does that occur anywhere where there are hills/mountains, or is it reserved for areas where there is a sudden relative height difference (e.g. in somerset coming off the levels, or here in Gloucestershire when a system moves across the vale of Gloucester and then meets the Cotswolds? Thanks, if anyone can explain - learner here.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Hi, the orographic enhancement that Ian mentions - does that occur anywhere where there are hills/mountains, or is it reserved for areas where there is a sudden relative height difference (e.g. in somerset coming off the levels, or here in Gloucestershire when a system moves across the vale of Gloucester and then meets the Cotswolds? Thanks, if anyone can explain - learner here.

I'm not really sure about the Orographic lift, i could be wrong, but in some places, just the landmass itself can induce it.

When i look at charts during situations like this, i also look at the 700hPa Vorticity chart. At the moment there's a lot of strong PVA and VORTMX lobes being progged, this enhances rainfall quite significantly if some other parameters are in place.

They may be related in some way, i expect Ian would know better.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Thanks Mapantz

Hunting for snow Jay?. Sorry we ain't got any either

Edited by SilverWolf
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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

I'm not really sure about the Orographic lift, i could be wrong, but in some places, just the landmass itself can induce it.

When i look at charts during situations like this, i also look at the 700hPa Vorticity chart. At the moment there's a lot of strong PVA and VORTMX lobes being progged, this enhances rainfall quite significantly if some other parameters are in place.

They may be related in some way, i expect Ian would know better.

Orthographic lift is really only exceptable and seen around Mountainous terrain, Scottish Highlands/Alps for example.

I think for Moors and Hills this happens to a lesser extent, but still with the same effect of enhancing the rainfall totals on the windward side (SE Slopes for this event as Ian mentioned)

SM

Edited by SnowMania
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

More rain on the way then..........how rotten for those who are still recovering from the last lot.

On a lighter note, I had the misfortune today to come across someone to whom I had GUARANTEED snow a couple of weeks ago. I had almost had a wager with him!

I felt such a complete plonker when he asked me "where's all that snow then?".He's not the sort to let anything go............lesson well and truly learned for me. I squirmed with embarrasment.blush.png I shalln't be so rash in future.

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

I thought we were getting rain and more rain got the next 23hours.. So why did the highways agency advise on the VMS sign on the M4 tonight "salt spreading" ....... Have I missed something?

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

More rain on the way then..........how rotten for those who are still recovering from the last lot.

On a lighter note, I had the misfortune today to come across someone to whom I had GUARANTEED snow a couple of weeks ago. I had almost had a wager with him!

I felt such a complete plonker when he asked me where the snow was. He is not the sort to let it go............lesson well and truly learned for me. I sq

Same here!

Never again!

It's 4 weeks ago on Saturday coming that i bought some snow boots at clarks village - jinxed it! Doh!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

More rain on the way then..........how rotten for those who are still recovering from the last lot.

On a lighter note, I had the misfortune today to come across someone to whom I had GUARANTEED snow a couple of weeks ago. I had almost had a wager with him!

I felt such a complete plonker when he asked me where the snow was. He is not the sort to let it go............lesson well and truly learned for me. I sq

Well what a small world ,my brother whom i spoke to on phone a couple of weeks ago and again today said wheres all this snow etc that you predicted , i just said it missed us by a wisker . radar showing incoming rain now hvy over cornwall you can see the system well on SAT24 ,plenty of action coming our way ,would currently put it in bristol by 10pm . and going by sat and radar,drinks.gif system seems to be slowing down more than forecast .cheers gang .
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

The mendips and some surrounding areas are prone to what Ian mentioned earlier.

Cley hill area is another one to.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol UK
  • Location: Siston, Bristol UK

There's already surface flooding in some parts of S. Glos on my way home tonight. All the drainage Rhines surrounding fields around here are full so I'm expecting some roads to be impassable on my way to work tomorrow. Quite worrying for many with more rain forecast. I'm just lucky I live far away enough from the nearby stream but I really feel for those waiting and watching nearby rivers very carefully.

I noticed the Frome was pretty high at Moorend (S.Glos near Winterbourne) this morning and I didn't think we had a huge amount of rain in the past 2/3 days so I can't imagine what its going to be like tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

peeps feel for you, Stay safe. Hope this link helps.

http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/lightning.htm

Jason.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Same here!

Never again!

It's 4 weeks ago on Saturday coming that i bought some snow boots at clarks village - jinxed it! Doh!

Same rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

I think in future, all members should make an agreement, no advising family or friends of "impending" snow or BFTE's until T+24 lol help.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

http://www.weathercast.co

BE SAFE the weather for your next of the woods is looking very nasty over night

Link doesn't work?

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Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All Weather
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL

Very heavy rain now across Dorset especially the Blandford area where surface water is becoming a problem, its looking like there is going to be a lot more through the night.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Not going to be a pleasent day at all tomorrow;

post-12721-0-76298300-1355953180_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .
  • Weather Preferences: thunder/lightning ,gales and warm sunny weather
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .

Rather wet here too. Not sure what the morning wil bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Very heavy rain now across Dorset especially the Blandford area where surface water is becoming a problem, its looking like there is going to be a lot more through the night.

yes it heading across Salisbury Plain to my neck of the woods, probably in the next hour or so....Looks very wet in some parts....Fingers crossed though that the ppn remains patchy though....some areas seeing mainly light rain, hopefully these areas will include those under flood warnings so they escape the worst of the overnight rain

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Been raining pretty heavily in Poole. Watching the radar, the break that appeared to be heading in, just keeps filling the closer it gets to the coast?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

A couple of tweets from Ian;

DORSET & WILTSHIRE: V heavy rain currently affecting areas around Sturminster Newton, across N of Blandford, tracking soon into Salisbury

BRISTOL, B&NES, S GLOS: Rain now already arriving or imminent from S, turning heavy in places

And onto the latest NAE output. Heavy outbreaks of rain across most of southern England overnight tonight;

post-12721-0-97395200-1355953708_thumb.j

Continuing throughout much of the day tomorrow, although generally becoming lighter & patchier in nature;

post-12721-0-31673900-1355953825_thumb.j

Clearing away through the late afternoon;

post-12721-0-20843000-1355953849_thumb.j

Widely 20mm - 30mm, locally more on channel facing coasts by tomorrow evening;

post-12721-0-56293100-1355953932_thumb.j

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