Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Nights King]

Still a frost outside here -0.5c but it is rising.

[gottolovethisweather]

It certainly is a bit chilly around the willy out there Tony (I really ought to put some clothes on before venturing outside...lol).....Tomorrow looks just awful, and I'm really hoping the hi-res models have over cooked the ppn totals to spare the otherwise inevitable flooding issues

Definitely agree with you on the last part but won't be commenting on first bit. Now at -0.3c and not too long before the Temps start rising once again and the flooding rains return.

[Dorset Weather]

Sadly we suspect not. Current positioning & areal extent has good model support. UKV prognosis of 30-40mm even as far east as the S Downs and parts of Hants etc all indicative of broader potential for trouble beyond just the SW/W Country later tomorrow night into Thurs AM.

I suspect your right Ian, looking like another busy weekend for us on call with Wessex 4x4 response after a busy period only two week ago helping residents in Devon and Cornwall cut off by flood water, rivers in the area still not recovered.

[fergieweather]

I suspect your right Ian, looking like another busy weekend for us on call with Wessex 4x4 response after a busy period only two week ago helping residents in Devon and Cornwall cut off by flood water, rivers in the area still not recovered.

Agreed.... and potentially greater impact this weekend given Xmas retail trade etc.

[MP-R]

Pretty chilly here at 2.4C, was 0.4C an hour or so ago so going up. Not looking forward to my first day of heavy rain in a long time!

[Dorset Weather]

Agreed.... and potentially greater impact this weekend given Xmas retail trade etc.

Indeed, lets just hope the public heed the warnings and stay home in the most affected areas, could do without rescuing shoppers and sightseers from puddles.

[AWD]

These have got to be some of the wettest ensembles I've seen in a long time;

[Dorsetbred]

Currently 7.8°C and the first band of rain is approx 20 miles to our west. Should arrive just as I leave for work!

Edited December 19, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[BARRY]

Raining hard since 02:30 4.2 mm, temp 8.9

[Dorsetbred]

Just started to rain in Bournemouth, made it to work before getting soaked.

[Andy Bown]

The initial rainband isn't that broad or heavy bet is very slow moving.

It's the shortest day on Friday and we have 2 dull, wet days beforehand, very glad there was so much sunshine yesterday and Monday!

[Evening thunder]

Had 7.6mm according to the Davis so far this morning. The heaviest part of this first band seems to have gone through.

This year has to be one of the wettest on record for my location, and there's plenty more to come before its done. Average is roughly 850mm and so far (including this so far morning) we've had 1249.4mm according to the Davis, and if the forecasts for the rest of December are correct, quite a high chance of reaching 1300mm

I have had a few issues with calibrating the Davis gauge and getting it to keep reading correct values, but do have a couple manual rain gauges I have used to correct it where possible, although this has been complicated by going to Uni and being away for the heaviest rain in July.

It would be good if anyone knows if you can access official Met Office rain gauge figures in the area to compare with mine. I know the Environment Agency/Met Office have several rain gauges around this area but don't think you can access any figures. There are some other amateur stations in the area but their rainfall totals very quite a bit and I'm pretty sure some seem to under-read.

It would be good to see if this is actually the wettest year recorded at my location but I don't know of any way to do that, Thanks in advance if anyone knows.

[Coast]

Severe weather warnings as three days of heavy rain forecast for Somerset

Severe weather warnings have been issued for three of the next four days as more torrential rain is forecast to hit Somerset.

The Met Office has yellow warnings in place for Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday as heavy downpours soak the already flooded county. The warning has been upgraded to an amber alert in Devon and Cornwall, with periods of heavy rain forecast for Wednesday evening and expected to last well into Thursday.

As much as 40mm of rain could fall, and the weather warnings are in place from 6pm on Wednesday evening until 3pm on Thursday afternoon. Another period of heavy rain is expected to sweep across Somerset on Saturday, and another yellow warning has been issued for the full 24 hours.

Met Office forecasters said another 30mm of rain could fall, the majority of it in a six-hour spell of torrential downpours. Met Office chief forecaster Andy Page said: "An active frontal system is expected to move eastwards across the UK over the next couple of days bringing rain to all parts of Britain. "The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings which means that the public should plan ahead to take account of possible travel delays or disruption to their day to day activities. "By thinking ahead the public can be more weather aware and better prepared for severe weather."

The Environment Agency's head of flood incident management, Craig Woolhouse, said: "Our teams have been out around the clock to minimise the risks and prepare for flooding. "We urge people to keep up to date with the weather forecast and remain prepared for flooding in their area by signing up to receive free flood warnings and staying away from dangerous flood water."

http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/Severe-weather-warnings-days-heavy-rain-forecast/story-17620264-detail/story.html

[AWD]

Temperature currently 5.8c with moderate rain.

You can see below the main rainband crossing the UK currently, and the developing secondary wave down towards Biscay;

It's what's developing down towards Biscay that I think could be the main troublemaker.

Edited December 19, 2012 by AWD

[Coast]

It's what's developing down towards Biscay that I think could be the main troublemaker.

[cerneman]

Rain but not bad at moment. Temp 7.5c, Wind gusty, Dog wet and muddy after his walk, Back to normal after few nice dry days,

[fergieweather]

Correct re wave tonight. Current splitting frontal rain likely to offer 5-15mm widely; 20-25mm parts of Cornwall-Devon, and serves to precondition situation for greater impacts later. Expect widespread 20-25mm with spot totals 50mm in some southern districts. High-res output for Saturday suggests another 20-40mm SW Peninsula and 15-30mm into the likes of S Somerset and Dorset.

[Coast]

http://www.meteoalarm.info/

[Dorset Weather]

Thanks Ian, sounds like a proper dreadful run up to xmas and even worse for people in flood prone areas that are still mopping up after the last disaster, the last thing we want is more people having to spend Xmas forced our of there home, never mind all the moaning going on because there's a lack of cold and snow over Xmas, some people need to see the bigger picture!

[AWD]

Hello all

It's Wednesday, less than a week to Christmas, but what do the next few days hold for the West Country.

The question on everyone's lips, will it snow? Unfortunetly, no, we can confidently say there will be no snow for the remainder of December. It would take a rather large swing in sypnotic pattern to deliver snow over the festive period here now unfortunetly. That's the first bit of bad news.

The second bit of bad news is that we are going to get very wet over the next week or two. The first system is with us all now. A rainband is currently crossing over Southern England as I type. This isn't all too heavy however, with just light - moderate outbreaks of rain not amounting to a great deal during daylight hours;

The more concerning rainfall will happen overnight tonight and continue through tomorrow. This is in association with a secondary wave development currently forming over the Biscay area now, and expected to head up into the South & South West overnight, all the time intensifying;

You can see from the above that the heavier rainfall hits the SW later tonight & engulfs most of southern England by midnight, continuing well into Thursday morning, and not losing a great deal of intensity either. Accumulated totals up until 06:00 Thursday start to rise considerably, with most areas seeing 30mm+ by then and its still not over;

Although during daylight hours Thursday the rainfall starts to lose intensity and becomes much lighter, it still looks like raining throughout much of Thursday across many areas. Perhaps clearing Cornwall & Devon later in the day;

By 18:00 Thursday, accumulated rainfall totals look to be between 35mm & 40mm for most places, which of course will cause further flooding problems;

Temperatures over the next couple of days are on the mild side, with the below chart typical of temperature expectations really;

Also, winds could become quite gusty at times too, as isobars tighten in response to the depression passing over the UK;

Where do we go from here? Well, unfortunetly no where far, with similar weather expected to dominate up until Christmas at least, possible further.

You can see what's responsible for all these depressions riding up over the UK. A High Pressure cell over Spain. This is causing the jet stream to ride over the top of this HP cell, sending all the Atlantic depressions our way, in mild south westerly winds;

Friday daytime looks like being a dry day for most of us. Sunny to start with possibly before clouding over as the day progresses ahead of another frontal system off the Atlantic;

Temperatures on the mild side of average;

Later on Friday more heavy rainfall heads into Cornwall, eventually spreading up to most areas by the end of the night;

This heavy and persistent rainfall continuing through much of Saturday, leading to a real washout, miserable day for many.

That's the next few days outlook, and it doesn't get no better into the following week, with more rain forecast. I won't go any further for now however, as we have enough to contend with over the next 72 hours.

Stay safe all.

Edited December 19, 2012 by AWD

[fergieweather]

Amber upgrade for Somerset and Bristol areas expected shortly.

[bradymk]

Amber upgrade for Somerset and Bristol areas expected shortly.

Hi Ian, just wondering if you have any info for here in Pembrokeshire. We too had very wet weather the week before last and the ground is still saturated with water levels still high. Models have 80mm accumalated for next week here so im worried flooding could become an issue once again by this weekend. Being in the left exit of the jet atm and slow moving fronts due to the block looks like causing more upset for people over the coming days after a brief respite for us here and with you in the SW.

[SteveB]

Amber upgrade for Somerset and Bristol areas expected shortly.

I'm guessing that also includes W-S-M. Has there been further developments as I thought we might escape the worst?

[offerman]

Morning Ian and all,

Thanks for the continued warning updates.

Heart goes out to the people already hit and whats to come. This next prolonged spell of wet weather might produce than the recent floods a few weeks ago in some parts , not whats needed that's for sure.

Difficult to see where the unsettled weather ends at the moment with it to last up at least until Christmas period and beyond.

A.T.B

Offerman.

[Coast]

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