Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Coast]

Please use this thread to continue your regional weather chat and any topical meteorological conversation.

[cerneman]

People already placing sand bags around village here, Hope not going to be so bad this time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Dorsetbred]

People already placing sand bags around village here, Hope not going to be so bad this time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

I wouldn't be too sure, the daily amounts I'm sure will cause some grief by the weekend.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[A.J]

Well, if...and it's a big if, 12z GFS output verifies then parts of our region could have a white christmas!....A long way to go though, but the possibilities are there...and bedsides 'tis the season to be snowy, tra-la-la la-lah, la-la-la-lah....lol....A few charts to illustrate...

[Frosty_wsm]

Well, if...and it's a big if, 12z GFS output verifies then parts of our region could have a white christmas!

certainly would be nice if the 12z gfs verified, but either way this years xmas day weather is far from certain and anyone touting mild with any kind of certainty is talking out their backside lol

The next few days of model watching will be very interesting indeed and I wonder if the ecm later will backup the latest gfs run, I can imagine what the mod thread would be like if it does!

[cerneman]

My neighbours homes still not fully recovered after last flood.Insurance company arranged for them have replacement carpet laid, They only finally got it two weeks ago, Local Church just dried out and nicely decorated for Christmas, Just can only hope river not come visiting again

[Andy Bown]

Clear sky is allowing a surprisingly chilly evening here,could even get a touch of frost, currently 2.2c .

[Dorsetbred]

Well, if...and it's a big if, 12z GFS output verifies then parts of our region could have a white christmas!....A long way to go though, but the possibilities are there...and bedsides 'tis the season to be snowy, tra-la-la la-lah, la-la-la-lah....lol....A few charts to illustrate...

I certainly wont be holding my breath on that sequence of charts

Some might get lucky, but I shan't be looking IMBY

Edited December 18, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[cerneman]

Currently 3.5c here,clear evening

[AWD]

From Ian:

W COUNTRY We have significant concern re cumulative impacts of rainfall from Weds AM to Thurs AM, especially for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset.

[khodds]

Somerset not currently in Amber warning tho I guess thisd may get upgraded?

[124alex]

unexpected cold 1.9c

[Chris K]

I wish I took a picture of the river I was working next to today. Water still must of been only inches from the top of its banks and you can still see large areas of water covering surrounding fields. Looks like the upcoming rain over the next few days will mean flooding for that area....

[fergieweather]

Somerset not currently in Amber warning tho I guess thisd may get upgraded?

Correct - impact-based matrix used for current warning criteria and concern for Somerset shouldn't be underestimated but we will await developments and amendments to warnings into tomorrow. Some worrying totals especially on the (uncertain) wave development tomorrow evening / night.

[Dorset Weather]

Thanks for the updates Ian, it sounds like a very fluid situation, rivers in the area are still only just below bursting point. It's ging to be a very interesting 48 hours with more expected over the weekend.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly would be nice if the 12z gfs verified, but either way this years xmas day weather is far from certain and anyone touting mild with any kind of certainty is talking out their backside lol

The next few days of model watching will be very interesting indeed and I wonder if the ecm later will backup the latest gfs run, I can imagine what the mod thread would be like if it does!

Agree with the first bit, lets just hope Alex Deakin looks a fool soon! he just said wet and windy Xmas week, how the hell does he know that

[microclimate]

Flood alerts issued for Weymouth rivers, I guess if the rain totals are as forecast then the other Dorset rivers will be included.

[cerneman]

Flood alerts issued for Weymouth rivers, I guess if the rain totals are as forecast then the other Dorset rivers will be included.

The river cerne been cleaned out of all the debris over last few days,which will help a little,But river still very high and fast. Parts of the Frome still very high and some water still on fields, Be interested to hear the state of river Brit? Remember before flood defence work. Bridport got flooding, Around where Morrisons is now would get rather bad at times. Remember some flooding of River Wey, around Upwey area by the ford? Edited December 18, 2012 by cerneman

[Andy Bown]

Still getting colder at 0.9c and it's quite frosty now, certainly wasn't expecting this.

What chance of the LOW attacking at a different angle * to engage the continental air a little more and bring wintriness?

* = I know it won't but what's wrong with a little fantasy lol !

[AWD]

The NAE shows most places in the South West receiving around 30mm of rainfall by Thursday morning, locally more in Cornwall & Devon;

[Dorsetbred]

Temperature bumping along at 2.2°C for the last few hours now as it becomes misty, in time to blown away tomorrow morning.

[microclimate]

Surprisingly cold here this evening, I thought it would of started to warm up by now.

[AWD]

These are the 12z GFS forecast minimum temperatures for 21.00;

Excluding local variances, not too far off the mark really.

Edited December 18, 2012 by AWD

[cerneman]

2,3c at moment. Expect temps to rise as breeze picks up, Rain band getting into Cornwall far as Penzance at moment

[microclimate]

These are the 12z GFS forecast minimum temperatures for 21.00;

Excluding local variances, not too far off the mark really.

No, you're right from that chart. The trouble with my location is the forecast temperatures are always based on Portland so are always several degrees higher than they actually are. Very annoying at times.

Just checked my forecast temperature on Netweather as 9 degrees, it's actually 3 outside. The met office used to be as bad but have improved lately.

Edited December 18, 2012 by microclimate