Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[AGAL]

By 204 the Atlantic is once again invincible. Mind you snow at Christmas, even Greg Lake whinged about the lack of it in the cooler seventies, so we shouldn't be to surprised.Best to put the whole thing out of your minds and enjoy Christmas and think about it Boxing day.

[bryan629]

jees, is there nothing at all consistant with this model ( GFS ) every single run is wildly different from its pre-decesour..... has this model taken leave of its senses...its crazy!!

ive been watching this model for about a week, each and every run...every single one different in some way shape or form,

no consistency with the pattern, a definate noodle baker.

can anybody on here with all their muscle possibly be brave enough to forcast the weather this comming friday... taking all the information from everything other model and be confident about their prediction.

p.s i think the cold air mass will win out , i just cant prove it lol

[AGAL]

ПожалуйÑта, пожалуйÑта, пожалуйÑта! Отправить на Зверь Ñ Ð’Ð¾Ñтока!

And a merry christmas to you comrade. Oh how uncle Joe used to love this time of year dressing up as father winter.

[Froze were the Days]

Ever get the feeling we're not getting any where just some teasing runs and then the default zonal pattern blows in, as I said mild all the way through to the month's end. The most consistent thing in the last day or so is the Iberian High now showing it's presence and that can only lead to one thing...

[Jason T]

I think its best to call it a draw for a Christmas cold spell,Hang your slings up and give it a week. I think there has been a spill over of emotions from the failed Easterly,We are looking to hard for any signal to produce anything Wintry like across the board for Christmas period. Be patient, I'm no expert in all synoptic s. CC has hit the nail on the head look beyond,Especially towards New years date. Our Winters are a lot more reliable and potent From January on-wards and our options are a lot wider. The Atlantic is just to strong in my opinion,In the past we have just been very lucky through a brief pattern change's. However the Atlantic dies down through January and February,If this current past,and present is a build up to what's coming then "BANK". I believe what we are seeing now is a build up on and off to the end result with good result's. Remember MOST historical UK Winter events "Never" started till January. As the current phrase goes(Keep calm and carry on). The bonus points from Jan events they can produce real top lengthy spells with record breaking scenario's. I have given up chasing the Xmas day wonderland and now focusing on The in-between to new year. MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL. As for happy new year"well" it could be just that.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Jason T

[mulzy]

Oh dear - the 18z is pretty much a horror show from start to finish. Big worry - the heights to the south (the Azores high and its relatives). But it's only one run.

[AGAL]

jees, is there nothing at all consistant with this model ( GFS ) every single run is wildly different from its pre-decesour..... has this model taken leave of its senses...its crazy!!

ive been watching this model for about a week, each and every run...every single one different in some way shape or form,

no consistency with the pattern, a definate noodle baker.

can anybody on here with all their muscle possibly be brave enough to forcast the weather this comming friday... taking all the information from everything other model and be confident about their prediction.

p.s i think the cold air mass will win out , i just cant prove it lol

It might be inconsistent in it's approach but the mild ending is consitency itself.

[swfc]

Well theres an upside and a downside for me over the last month!Upside do not mention or tell the family "esp grandkids"" cold and snow is on its way.Downside is all the so called background signals from november have not come to fruition"shortwaves,ete ete ete"and now the atlantic looks "imo"to be getting into gear.Still early days i guess and it is nearly xmas"last straw now clutched till 2013"lol

[Weathizard]

Given the way the models are flipping, I'm no expert but I'd advise looking only within 96, given how much little details (depth of shortwaves ect) affect the later parts of runs I'd say its almost pointless looking at the runs after these key components. Its not all lost anyway, even if people don't get what they want over christmas weatherwise, spend it with your family and enjoy the festive season.

[snowking]

I have to agree with the sentiments of this russian high just being a pain more than anything now - its been clear for some time that we are unlikely to see much in the way of wintry precipitation away from the far NE (of course if I lived up there i'm sure my attitude would be different - anybody want to adopt me up there for the weekend?)

Whats more encouraging to me in the longer term from the 18z is this:

Warming breaking the surf zone.

Followed by this:

Renewed warming surge, which has been pretty consistently modelled today...and all of that just at 10mb!

Not to mention a little earlier:

GP's Euro High/Aleutian Low combo - precursor to both Wave 1 and 2 activity shortly afterwards.

Longer term - vortex is going to be taking a very serious beating, and at this range thats all we can ask for

SK

[bluearmy]

I know it's ridiculous looking at a T384 chart but the vortex is in chunks all around the hemisphere, dancing around the arctic high. Very pretty!

[SnowBallz]

Pardon the pun, but I'm warming to the idea of much milder air.

It'll allow us all to turn the central heating off - which must be costing everyone a fortune?

It's going to be a very non-seasonal Christmas Day, by the looks of things - with the 18z the most pronounced. However, as many have observed, statistically the British Isles has more White Easters, than it does White Christmases:

[phil nw.]

Realistically a real push back from the East was never a likely development this week..

What we are seeing are the Atlantic troughs disrupting as they hit the edges of the cold block.It`s not so easy for the models to calculate exact placement of these hence the reason for differences in the modelling of the smaller features through this week.

The upstream flow will push the Iberian ridge ahead of it and the tilt of the jet from the south west looks like having enough forcing to push the milder air across all of the UK by this time next week.

The 12z mean charts at T192hrs.

show us in a westerly type of flow for Christmas week with temps. around average and these have been pretty consistent over the past few days,

What we can take comfort from is the continual modelling of the main core of the vortex displaced towards Siberia in later mean outputs.It creates chances for heights to rise on the Atlantic side which would bode well for a high anomaly somewhere in the N.Atlantic or Greenland.

These are at T240hrs from the 12z mean outputs

We need the Uk trough a little further east to benefit so that`s where the demise of the block to our east would help in the long run.

Edited December 17, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Cloud 10]

The latest fax charts for Friday and Saturday look like a battleground scenario over the UK

http://www.meteociel...ax96s.gif?17-12

http://www.meteociel...x120s.gif?17-12

[AGAL]

Pardon the pun, but I'm warming to the idea of much milder air.

It'll allow us all to turn the central heating off - which must be costing everyone a fortune?

It's going to be a very non-seasonal Christmas Day, by the looks of things - with the 18z the most pronounced. However, as many have observed, statistically the British Isles has more White Easters, than it does White Christmases:

You've actually got your central heating on!!!!!!! Nah tough weatther nuts sleep with the CH off , the bedroom windows wide open and under a half a tog duvet.

[Frosty.]

Like I have been saying all day, it looks like a very mild christmas coming up, yes it's not what most of us want but as the models have been showing the uk covered in green 850's, it cannot be ignored. I'm more optimiistic about a cold spell in the new year once the strat warming takes effect though. It now looks as though even the far north of scotland will miss out on a few snow flakes too, don't you just love the models. On the bright side, with the aid of a few stiff drinks, the models will look a lot better, cheers.

[Jason M]

It might be inconsistent in it's approach but the mild ending is consitency itself.

Indeed, run after run plus just about all the ensembles. The detail changes but the Iberian high wins every time and in our part of the world an Iberian high is a game over situation. Whilst we have heights to our immediate south there is next to no chance of a decent cold spell.

[snowking]

ECM32 control keeps us under cold zonality throughout, thats literally all I can report from it. Plenty of snowfall chances right through until mid jan, but in short spells.

Different from the previous run though, this is where you hope the ensembles offer a clearer picture with such wild operational swings

SK

[bradymk]

ECM32 control keeps us under cold zonality throughout, thats literally all I can report from it. Plenty of snowfall chances right through until mid jan, but in short spells.

Different from the previous run though, this is where you hope the ensembles offer a clearer picture with such wild operational swings

SK

An improvement from previous run? Sorry missed your update the other day SK

[bradymk]

18z ensemble mean showing a lot of members having a mid atlantic ridge in the longer term with the main core of the PV over siberia with low heights over Scandinavia. For me, increasing indications of a possible northerly flow for the end of the year. Might be time to stop chasing the potential easterly for some areas in the coming days and look for the block to our east shifting away eastwards and for a trough over Scandinavia. A northerly is plausible imo but i dont think it will be long lasting but as long as the current strat warming forecasts continue, that isn't really a problem.

[EML Network]

Finally we're seeing a tentative step in the right direction from the various GFS runs (all post +192 though it has to be said), potential for a brief flirtation with a more potent North / North Westerly, swinging to North Easterly temporarily, with a temporary Azores incursion before the next low passes over, and the process repeats.

There's going to be quite a few cold runs on the 18z as well as a fair few mild runs, but IMO that from 27th Dec onward, some of us might just get lucky and see a few flakes, but there's nothing I can see on the horizon that would deliver deep seated cold, however I am seeing a small move from the past 24 hours runs and in the right direction...all in all, quite a mobile period of weather over the next few weeks looks plausible

Edited December 18, 2012 by EML Network

[weather_it_will]

Pardon the pun, but I'm warming to the idea of much milder air.

It'll allow us all to turn the central heating off - which must be costing everyone a fortune?

Yes, why chase the non-existant snow chance and look for a tropical heatwave instead, as it seems more likely than snow before Christmas.

Edited December 18, 2012 by snow is falling

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think the outside shot of avoiding any kind of real mild incursion into northern parts may well be dead in the water tonight, and unfortunately it is likely that the warm up will coincide with Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Thereafter, a cooler pattern looks more likely, probably with some kind of mean north/northwesterly flow at times, perhaps with some proper cold zonality as SK mentions. How cold and how long lasting the colder incursions are depends on what kind of variety of cyclonic pattern we get, with options ranging from a flat zonal pattern to a scandi trough setup with mid Atlantic heights. In the shorter term I'm still not giving up on this easterly for my neck of the woods at least, it's very much unlikely to have a widespread impact but there's still a chance that it can at least deliver some snowfall this weekend to many of us in northern and eastern Scotland.

[Geordiesnow]

Yes, why chase the non-existant snow chance and look for a tropical heatwave instead, as it seems more likely than snow before Christmas.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-9-162.png?18

Tropical heatwave, honestly I think people have forgotten what Mild SW'lies deliver at this time of year, looking at this GFS run, it seems there is going to be an awful lot of low cloud and drizzle and with the sun at its lowest at this time of year, the low cloud will be widespread to say the least, there is also hints that the "main warmth" will only last a day or two and we may see fresher conditions by the time Xmas day arrives. Despite this, temperatures could very well approch the teens even mid teens quite widely if the set up comes off perfectly.

On the other hand, whilst I think the Iberian ridge will probably effect our weather, its total extent is still undecided, and this will decide how far North any mild air gets. On the other hand, we may get a short live cold blast from the east as the UKMO nicely shows which may some frontal snow for some. As I say, the mild air is odds on to win this battle but its not a total foregone conclusion just yet.

[Panayiotis]

The latest fax charts for Friday and Saturday look like a battleground scenario over the UK

http://www.meteociel...ax96s.gif?17-12

http://www.meteociel...x120s.gif?17-12

Are you sure?The 546dam line is covering most of the country, snow if any will be limited to Scotland's mountains. Edited December 18, 2012 by panayiotis