Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[cold snap]

Lets. Be honest here this is not what you would call a cold run ,infact it's very poor and zonal

[MR EXTREMES]

Did somebody order a blowtorch!!

yep i see warmth all the way from africa that would be a wild turn around.

its possible with low heights hanging out west it could aid the heights building but sure the southerly tracking jet would aid low heighs to swing a little more south than its already showing.

[Matty M]

Lets. Be honest here this is not what you would call a cold run ,infact it's very poor and zonal

Of course it isn't, it's quite gruesome by T192hrs!!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Shocking run,period!

How is it awful, High pressure building over the UK , trying to link with the Scandi High , can only be a good thing and would likely lead to some cold getting in from the NE / E eventually ... much better run than what we have seen lately.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1

Having said that small possibllitys here

Edited December 14, 2012 by cold snap

[The Eagle]

UKMO not too bad. Straw to clutch.

[Matty M]

UKMO not too bad. Straw to clutch.

Yep UKM is good enough, possibly a sign of what ECM will show us?

12z looks far too progressive and definitely a bin job for me.

[MR EXTREMES]

Lets. Be honest here this is not what you would call a cold run ,infact it's very poor and zonal

well its just one idear the models are throwing up so best not get to sucked in remember vortex disruption and its on the move so id think were have alsorts thrown up.

after the azores sinking away zonal maybe but nothing blowtorch which is a plus.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

And by 240 it's what you would call mild

[MR EXTREMES]

omg gfs later runs bbq lol but its way into fi.

[Panayiotis]

Is the PV heading for the UK? LOL

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121214/12/288/h500slp.png

[kold weather]

Horrible looking run from the 12z GFS....HOWEVER I've got my doubts big time about what it does to the PV, it really strengthens it and whilst I don't doubt the gist of the set-up may happen like the 12z, I don't think its going to be likely we get a PV like that...

[AWD]

I'm optimistic & all but even i can see there isn't nothing good about this;

Thankfully all FI so still opportunity for change.

Edited December 14, 2012 by AWD

[Weathizard]

Dreadful run from the GFS but this won't be resolved for a while yet as key changes off the eastern seaboard will have massive knock on effect.

I do however feel that we are on a road to nowhere with this one, I just can't see all the pieces falling into place correctly I think we'll have a 'faux' zonal pattern for 10 days or so before something more substantial, just my thoughts and having looked at the ens from the 00z ECM and 6z GFS I can't see a 'cold' outcome, just my opinion like

[Rocheydub]

omg gfs later runs bbq lol but its way into fi.

I'm very serious here. Looking at UKMO and GFS FI starts at 96. Orientation of the Low is crucial for us.

[karyo]

The 12z GFS is pretty bad compared to its earlier runs and in particular yesterday's 12z which was very promising for a cold spell.

The UKMO is much better but I have lost faith in it since the first cold spell failed and the UKMO continued to show promising charts only to drop them in the last minute! It seems to be following trends lately with some delay and I wonder whether it is worth paying any attention to it past 120 hours.

Karyo

[AWD]

I'm optimistic & all but even i can see there isn't nothing good about this;

Thankfully all FI so still opportunity for change.

And from there, the GFS still manages to get to this way in FI;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

Lol.

[warrenb]

Just look at how the PV is modelled in FI, it is completely different to the 6z. Junked beyond 144 I think.

[Zakos]

the gfs slows the atlantic progression further on this run. however the russuan high is slightly further east. overall no real change in the output, the outcome once again is far from clear. In FI, the gfs goes insane. it completely defaults at 240 hours with a very flat pattern. then out of nowhere we get a potent northerly. very odd. the ECM tonight will be intersting, let us hope it does not ditch the easterly.

[Methuselah]

Just look at how the PV is modelled in FI, it is completely different to the 6z. Junked beyond 144 I think.

And what makes you think that the 06Z is right?

[swfc]

And from there, the GFS still manages to get to this way in FI;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

Lol.

sledge ordered hahaha Edited December 14, 2012 by swfc

[Radiating Dendrite]

Interesting GFS - does the usual GFS party trick and goes a bit mad later on!

Those saying it is junk............let's be honest, every model is pretty much junk past +144.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Ian Brown]

Of course it isn't, it's quite gruesome by T192hrs!!!

Yes, that's one for the late 80s, late 90s period especially. The jet really fires up and pressure begins to rise over Europe.

We have to hope that the GFS is wrong with how it is handling the energy exiting the US, if we can't get some amplification or a delay then the GFS is where we weill head post day 7.

[Matty M]

Strat Warming only to -8c on this run.

Still very significant but not the +10c of yesterday!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Just look at how the PV is modelled in FI, it is completely different to the 6z. Junked beyond 144 I think.

You have confidence that it is correct upto T144 then?

Edited December 14, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls