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Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A new thread ready for the 12z models then.

Just a recap on the different model threads.

The winter / cold model output discussion thread (this one) - busy, fast moving, sometimes a bit of a rollercoaster, generally cold orientated, with views from a wide range of people with differing interests, biases and levels of knowledge.

In depth model discussion, analysis and summaries - slower moving, sometimes more technical, straight down the line type model analysis, info and discussion:

http://forum.netweat...-and-summaries/

Model mayhem - all the emotion from looking at the models, rants, ramps etc

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

Some interest in the next few days as the Atlantic lows come against the cold block further east.

Will we get the undercut of energy to bring some of that cold this way or will have to wait a while for a return of lower temperatures?

As ever please keep it polite and use the relevant threads-continue here.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The area of interest showed around T120-144hrs on the 00z ECM where the trough starts to disrupt as it slows just to our west.

post-2026-0-97871600-1355499626_thumb.pn

signs of undercutting but in the end the Atlantic won-let`s see what the 12Z`s do.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The UK right in between the Mild to the south west and cold to the north east.

post-2026-0-72491900-1355501031_thumb.pn

The interesting period coming now.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

At T120hrs.the low is having a battle sending those fronts north east as a surface high tries to build over S. Norway.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

It's all very messy, and very different to the 6z. Nearly have FI at T96 on these 2 runs. Still possibilities here, just not that confident. Anyway, what appens from here on is into FI, so very unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

By T138hrs the milder push just wins through.The Russian high still very much in evidence in next weeks modelling though and it wouldn`t take much adjustment in the pattern to bring the cold this way.

Still time for changes in such a finely balanced setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

UKM playing catch up as usual of late.

Not rating it much at the moment.

UW120-21.GIF?14-17

'Catch up' to what, exactly?

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

i wonder in this chart does the other low pressure moving out of the states prop or help push the main low east or does it not work this way?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Some changes on the UKMO at 120hrs

UW120-21.GIF?14-17

Not great but better.

Yes by T120hrs UKMO more bullish in pushing the trough east towards the UK so T96hrs is as far as we could see similarities with the 2 models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Compare it to its run last night, it is pushing Atlantic energy too far east.

Yeah? But 'too far east' compared to what?

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

I think the main point of interest tonight is to compare the ECM at t96 compared to its 12z run last night at t120.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Your a rollercoaster all by yourself Matty! :):p

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

t168 here comes the azores anychance of a link up maybe?

h850t850eu.png

Did somebody order a blowtorch!! help.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

t168 here comes the azores anychance of a link up maybe?

h850t850eu.png

Nope here comes the zonal train!
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Missing is the potential secondary low which was progged last night which would act as a cut off.

Also problematic on the 12z is the faster movement of the Low exiting NE US around T144hrs, this leaves no window for us.

However the 12z GFS is often too progressive with its output.

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