Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Snowly does it]

A mild Friday for England with 11-13 possible. Ugh, we need that LP to do something else. ANYTHING else

[Snowman31]

The Met Office models have been updated today for December

40% chance of above normal temperatures, 20% chance of below normal

40% chance of above average precipitation, 20% chance of below average

Its not looking good for coldies at the moment ample time for change of course

How often are these correct. I personally don't believe them one bit

[Buriedundersnow]

is it just me or does anyone else notice in the past few runs that trough getting boxed in by high now run it on would it not end up like the gfs chart on the right

[Weathizard]

Very similar in my eyes at T96 apart from the alignment of the system in the Atlantic.

[Cheshire Freeze]

How often are these correct. I personally don't believe them one bit

I believed they're based on the Glosea4 long range model which has done really quite well in recent years. A consistent signal since the last update too for HP to the south and LP to the north of us as a general pattern.

[Panayiotis]

Well, the title says "Hunt for cold" - I can't find any at all in the near future. Latest charts are abysmal for any cold/snow prospects. A strong Jet Stream, Westerly flow, and nothing building around us even for a glimmer of hope! Looking like a wet Christmas for most if the models are to be believed. I think there will be some twists & turns, but after Thursday / Friday... It's looking Atlantic Dominated.

You seem to have a lot of confidence in what you are saying, but why? The weather for later this week is still changing, so how can you know what Christmas has in store?

[Isolated Frost]

As the transfer of energy takes place across the arctic- the only erratic longwave feature is the atlantic flow; the pfj tint is more SW-NE rather than W-E on this run and accordingly more energy is moved up into Britain and Central Europe on it's eastern frontier-

The notable heights over Novaya Zemlya can really make inroads if the more temporary progressive Azores ridge falters- the 12z suite is often progressive so the GEFS will provide a sharper guide as to where we stand-

[Weathizard]

One thing I have noticed is within 120 that high to the east just keeps increasing in strength and size

6Z

12z

Also worth noting that there was a large increase in this from the 00z to 6z as well.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Weathizard

[Great Plum]

How often are these correct. I personally don't believe them one bit

I can't believe that there is a 40% chance of above average temperatures this month... Running as we are about 2c under until at least the 12th, that means the rest of the month would have to be very mild!

[Cheshire Freeze]

One thing I have noticed is within 120 that high to the east just keeps increasing in strength and size

6Z

12z

Also worth noting that there was a large increase in this from the 00z to 6z as well.

The thing is the size of the HP means nothing if it's stuck out east,not being able to back west. In fact it could become more of a hinderance than a help as it's just stalling LP over or just to the east of us.....we just sit in mild Atlantic air.

[Paul]

Moved some posts in to the mayhem thread just now, please drop your posts in there direct if they're not actual model discussion, thanks

[Cheshire Freeze]

I can't believe that there is a 40% chance of above average temperatures this month... Running as we are about 2c under until at least the 12th, that means the rest of the month would have to be very mild!

They're for Jan/Feb/Mar, not this month

[Jonan92]

Well, at t144 the Azorian High starts rising

[latitude]

The thing is the size of the HP means nothing if it's stuck out east,not being able to back west. In fact it could become more of a hinderance than a help as it's just stalling LP over or just to the east of us.....we just sit in mild Atlantic air.

Spot on with that assessment. We will end up a bin for the LP's from the Atlantic to rain on!

[Matty M]

12z GFS is fairly gruesome.

UKM too.

At 120hrs

[Panayiotis]

Jet stream taking a trip to Spain at 141hrs, will this help cause a ridge into Greenland?

Edit: C'mon Low move SE!

Edited December 10, 2012 by panayiotis

[Snowly does it]

Well, at t144 the Azorian High starts rising

Yes, Azores is ridging, it's one possible way for things to tip in our favour for cold, but it's tricky. Need the LP to move now

Edit... Close by T156 to dropping through

Edited December 10, 2012 by snowmaiden

[nick sussex]

Well, at t144 the Azorian High starts rising

Yes this is really going to be the saviour if it can retrogress.

We need more amplification in the eastern USA but as I mentioned earlier today the Azores high often the winter enemy can help if we get that amplification upstream.

[snow drift]

WOW, if this run was to verify, how much snow in Scandinavia plus strong winds. That would be a 36 hour plus snow fall.

Edited December 10, 2012 by snow drift

[Weathizard]

The thing is the size of the HP means nothing if it's stuck out east,not being able to back west. In fact it could become more of a hinderance than a help as it's just stalling LP over or just to the east of us.....we just sit in mild Atlantic air.

True, was just noting a trend anyway, seems to be increasing in strength and size every run now. I just hope we can avoid the worst of the rain from this system as I have relatives living in the south west and they are still recovering from the last water encroachment.

[syed2878]

im mor incline to go with u.k met they call it mor rite than wrong.

[nick sussex]

Not enough amplification yet on the GFS with the next low upstream flattening the ridge. Given the timeframes a chance we could get more but also they could flatten things out!

[EML Network]

Interestingly the METO Glosea4 model has been updated today for the period Jan/Feb/Mar.....look away if you're a coldie....

Bartlettesque I would say

Well you know I did mention earlier today that the charts looked to be trending towards a Bartlett style set up , but hey what do I know...I'm just a weather enthusiast who keeps repeating myself and who knows nothing

[Isolated Frost]

Question. After 7 days of being under a 1055-1060 blocking high, how cold will it be at dawn in a Ural valley?

The major point of the 12z is the Azores-Greenland link-up will occur earlier as a result of progression-

from a more weather 'geek' rather than 'enthusiast' view, the strength and intensity of this block against an atlantic which is lacking of typical systems- is bloody enjoyable!

[Timmytour]

I really don't want to keep watching to see if the Azores high links up with Greenland and then ponder the possibilities that brings up and talk about potential but....but ....but