Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[SnowObsessor90]

Speaking of the Vortex are there any signs of it trying to move back towards Greenland and if so is there really anything to support that type of evolution? because that's what you'd think reading quite a few of the comments on here so far today.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Anonymous21

[mountain shadow]

Well the Met Office have written off cold and snow until the 8th of January. What a turn around.

The models are wet and windy for the foreseeable with perhaps slight height rises towards Greenland although Not currently strong enough to bring Arctic air.

The waiting continues and could well take us into mid January before our next shot.

[Alexis]

We keep seeing posts showing big concern over any potential heavy rain in the SW and catastrophic flooding. Is there really any need for such panic? This Friday will be approximately 18 days since last month's floods and the rivers are back to having substantial capacity. Yes the ground is sodden and there is surface water still about, but that's not unusual in winter. I really can't see much cause for panic if 25mm fell at the end of the week. I'm not being facetious, but just pointing out that after 18 days, capacity for water in the system is much more than 7 days after a big flood for example.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Alexis

[picog]

We keep seeing posts showing big concern over any potential heavy rain in the SW and catastrophic flooding. Is there really any need for such panic? This Friday will be approximately 18 days since last month's floods and the rivers are back to having substantial capacity. Yes the ground is sodden and there is surface water still about, but that's not unusual in winter. I really can't see much cause for panic if 25mm fell at the end of the week. I'm not being facetious, but just pointing out that after 18 days, capacity for water in the system is much more than 7 days after a big flood for example.

There remains little or no spare capacity in the fields and therefore flooding from run-off remains a threat. Even after the 12mm we had last week, we had substantial surface flooding here. Remember, the rain doesn't fall into the river, it mostly falls elsewhere and then travels overland to get to the river — and that's the part that often can cause flooding too!

[Weathizard]

Well the Met Office have written off cold and snow until the 8th of January. What a turn around.

The models are wet and windy for the foreseeable with perhaps slight height rises towards Greenland although Not currently strong enough to bring Arctic air.

The waiting continues and could well take us into mid January before our next shot.

The same Met Office that only thursday were saying significantly below average for the foreseeable, salt and pinch spring to mind, nobody really has a clue this far out and one things for sure, it won't be zonal, without the Vortex over Greenland feeding the lows I seriously doubt we'll be stuck in a zonal flow, its foolish to say we won't have another shot before mid January its a whole 28-35 days away?

Besides this, the METO don't actually write anything off, they mention a massive amount of uncertainty I'm sure they are just hedging there bets as they have to come out with something.

[mountain shadow]

It is zonal, although of a colder variety. The weather will be Atlantic driven, that to me is zonal.

Chiono mentioned a possible SSW in around ten days, it can then take a further 21 days to impact us, if at all.

That takes us to mid January.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
It wasn't good enough to use it twice.

[nick sussex]

Well the Met Office have written off cold and snow until the 8th of January. What a turn around.

The models are wet and windy for the foreseeable with perhaps slight height rises towards Greenland although Not currently strong enough to bring Arctic air.

The waiting continues and could well take us into mid January before our next shot.

They may well be right who knows but from what I've read their forecast for Xmas onwards seemed uncertain and hasn't changed for days.

I would say that if we saw the PV limpeted over Greenland and not displaced towards Siberia then it would be hard to see a way back to cold, as things stand it may change if the upstream pattern amplifies. If it doesn't then I suspect their call will be the right one upto Xmas.

In this type of set up with block to the east and troughing over the UK it can turn into a stalemate, the much maligned Azores high may well be the saviour if we can see some more amplification off the eastern seaboard of the USA.

This then gets pulled further west and north. We'll just have to see whether we can get some help from the upstream pattern.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Well, the title says "Hunt for cold" - I can't find any at all in the near future. Latest charts are abysmal for any cold/snow prospects. A strong Jet Stream, Westerly flow, and nothing building around us even for a glimmer of hope! Looking like a wet Christmas for most if the models are to be believed. I think there will be some twists & turns, but after Thursday / Friday... It's looking Atlantic Dominated.

[Frosty.]

Well we have now missed our first chance of a very wintry outlook which the models were showing recently with a prolonged very cold spell which was due to last until somewhere near christmas or beyond (no point in being in denial about that fact anymore), it got the first bit right although even that has downgraded a lot so when will we get our next chance? well, the 6z hints at us getting close and the russian high remains to the top right of the weather maps through FI, the gem 00z looks very good around dec 20th onwards but is a poor model and the latest meto has gone rather flat on the idea of anything cold this side of christmas once the current weak cold snap ends and we have an unsettled outlook with temps returning closer to average with a lot more rain and strong winds, the further outlook remains the same, a great deal of uncertainty so we have taken a few steps backwards but we live in hope of the next cold FI chart just around the corner.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Frosty039

[NL]

Maybe the title should be the hunt for snow, as its cold out there today at least a few degrees down on what it should be at this time of year.

[itsnowjoke]

I would make snow the law at this time of year if i could

[bluearmy]

you're all mad!! well some of you anyway. i hope JH is keeping away from this thread.

the meto update 30 dayer says 'rainfall or snowfall' as it did over the weekend. it will update in the morning with the new 32 day ecm run.

the only thing that has changed in the last 24 hours is that some of you have finally realised that the incursion of less cold at the end of the week will definitely happen. no one, and that includes exeter, know whats going to happen as next week progresses.

[Paul]

But anyway, whilst we've given this thread a title which more reflects its usage, there is still 'model discussion' in that title so can we keep it to that please.

For those who don't want to just talk cold prospects etc we have a thread setup for that side of the discussion here:

http://forum.netweat...7th-nov-onward/

And for those who want to ramp it, or whine about the models, this one is for you:

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

Thanks

Paul

[nick sussex]

Fully agree!! Everyone saying how good it is with the pv here n there, well I disagree. It might as well be in Greenland because the foreseeable is zonal garbage of some type. Dare we say that this winter is going to be one of those.... hope not.

If you think the current set up is zonal garbage you'd need the swear filter on emergency mode to describe this hideous looking chart from December 1988!

The worst winter I can ever remember!

[pyrotech]

Okay to clear up exactly what meto have said i have it below, you can then monitor it as the days pass for changes.

As bluearmy said its updated to what ever ECM and what ever other models they decide to give credability too for a particular run.

With the longer term outlook i find they only make big changes every few days, i would suggest if Ecm showed a cold outlook on 12z they would still leave it pretty much as it is as that is what the latest trend from it has shown ( possibly adjusting the wording on confidence only) Then if models begin a new trend they will look at changing the forecast with more depth. The 5 day is more prone to daily changes as its more reliable on model runs, however at that timescale any changes are normally much smaller anyway.

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2012 to Monday 24 Dec 2012:

Unsettled conditions should have spread to affect most the UK into the first weekend, with temperatures widely recovering to near-normal for the time of year. The rain may be preceded by a period of snow, mainly across higher ground of Scotland with the colder conditions starting the period here. Otherwise, occasionally heavy rain will follow into southwest England before moving northeast across the country, leaving clearer, windier and showery conditions, particularly affecting the west, with a risk of gales in places. Conditions should then stay unsettled through the remainder of the period, with rainbands crossing the UK, turning clearer but showery in between. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average, perhaps even mild at times in the south, but there may still be overnight frost in clearer spells.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2013:

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast, but there are indications of more unsettled weather during this period. Temperatures will generally be a little below average for the time of year, although they may recover to nearer normal by the New Year. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts and distribution shows a high degree of uncertainty. On balance, it seems most likely that many areas will receive average amounts of rain.

Issued at: 1600 on Mon 10 Dec 2012

[Shunter]

12z- t48 .....it's moving south again.....look at the -5c 850"s , starting to filter south through Scotland.......c'mon ,!,

Edited December 10, 2012 by Shunter

[Buriedundersnow]

that low in the atlantic seems to be weaker in this run up till now

[Buriedundersnow]

slightly better hieghts over greenland aswell

[Snowly does it]

Fractionally more advantageous to T60, can't see any additional chance of frontal snow off the hilltops though

Having said that, sitting on the Drumochter Pass would probably be fun come the end of the week

Edited December 10, 2012 by snowmaiden

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interestingly the METO Glosea4 model has been updated today for the period Jan/Feb/Mar.....look away if you're a coldie....

Bartlettesque I would say

[Buriedundersnow]

if that trough in the atlantic keeps getting put further south or south east is that our best chance of getting the cold in

[Snowly does it]

Interestingly the METO Glosea4 model has been updated today for the period Jan/Feb/Mar.....look away if you're a coldie....

Bartlettesque I would say

Hopefully the entire anomaly is March!

Out to T84 and the lp is deeper and further south but carries a fat wedge of mild air with it. Scotland hanging on to -5s

if that trough in the atlantic keeps getting put further south or south east is that our best chance of getting the cold in

It would need to slide under us with the cold pulled in on the Northern flank. I think it's way too late to see that happen now.

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office models have been updated today for December

40% chance of above normal temperatures, 20% chance of below normal

40% chance of above average precipitation, 20% chance of below average

Its not looking good for coldies at the moment ample time for change of course

[chionomaniac]

It is zonal, although of a colder variety. The weather will be Atlantic driven, that to me is zonal.

Chiono mentioned a possible SSW in around ten days, it can then take a further 21 days to impact us, if at all.

That takes us to mid January.

No I haven't - go and read correctly what I have said please on the strat thread

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ensembles offer some hope still from later next week for another cold spell