Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[syed2878]

guys a qs. Is it so unusial to c snow in scotland and higher parts of england? The reason i ask is some peeps going on about how we already seen snow in parts of the country. Plz remove if needs be.

[Frosty.]

More worryingly, the 6z shows a lot of wet weather which we don't need, heavy rain to come and snow melt in the north will once again swell the rivers to breaking point once we are into the very disturbed pattern. Just a snapshot of the expected precipitation charts, you could multiply charts similar to that in the upcoming unsettled spell but notice how temps are still on the cold side generally, chilly and cyclonic for most with just the occasional milder blip, mainy for the south and southwest.

[The Northern Ramper]

Do you have your comments on speed dial, you wrote (word for word) that exact same comment early last week .....

The ignore feature is a useful tool.

[Mark Neal.]

A very interesting gfs 6z run, we do get close at times to a much colder spell so we are really in with a shout if we have a bit more luck, synoptically we are in a much healthier state than early last winter.

Agreed, colder weather is never to far away, a few more tweaks in our favour and we could be looking at a more promising outlook if you are a coldie!

I have to say the end of the week looks unsettled and for the areas that could really do without, with slow improvements over the past week-10days, in flooded areas. Into the weekend could see more localised flooding, not good. As for the models they are obviously still trying to come to terms with a big pattern change ahead, with the vortex likely to be moving towards siberia it seems. A interesting week to come for sure, although i hope the low pressure progged to head into western parts isn't as bad as perhaps currently modeled.

Mark

Edited December 10, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[EML Network]

I disagree entirely EML.

For potential this run has a lot and whilst the Atlantic troughs don't attach themselves to the vortex in the reliable that potential will remain.

Fair play Chino, I'm certainly not going to argue with you kind sir.

What I am seeing though is the formation of a flat High Pressure system over the Azores and that's why I didn't feel that the 06z run has much in the way of potential, perhaps I'm wrong to suggest that ??

The FI post was just done out of jest more than anything, but also to show what could happen if that Azores links up with the Russian High , if those Atlantic bombs keep coming, the Azores high is going to struggle to make much northward movement and we could end up on the wrong side of it, keeping us in a South Westerly feed for a good while, that in turn would prevent any southward movement of Low pressure and in turn force the Jet stream North with it, it's just me making an observation on one run though, not taking it as gospel, and perhaps I'm looking at things in the ''half empty'' as opposed to "Half full" way, but after the past week of let downs I'm going to struggle to see things from a half full perspective

[EML Network]

Do you have your comments on speed dial, you wrote (word for word) that exact same comment early last week .....

And look what happened !!!!

Whilst every one else was talking about who was going to get the most snow, I was being cautious, and rightly so !!

I swear down, if anyone even dare mention something showing anything other than cold on here, they get trampled on...have some members learn't nothing over the past few days events on here....clearly not !!

Edited December 10, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
Perhaps you need to check the thread title?!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It would be far better from all perspectives if it transpired that the models were overdoing the cyclonegenesis of that initial low. However, at this stage we can only really hope for slight adjustments to lessen the rainfall totals in the southwest in particular and also improve the situation going forward for coldies.

[Geordiesnow]

And look what happened !!!!

Whilst every one else was talking about who was going to get the most snow, I was being cautious, and rightly so !!

I swear down, if anyone even dare mention something showing anything other than cold on here, they get trampled on...have some members learn't nothing over the past few days events on here....clearly not !!

I agree the ramping in here can be a little OTT and I do urge caution of course(and yes I been critisized for being cautious aswell) but your last post was just as guilty as those ramping posts by posting a chart for Boxing day(384 hours away!) and worrying what it's showing!!

You can't have it both ways.

[Catacol]

I have a genuine question for those more expert than I. Here is the NH ECM chart for 192h:

I am interested in trying to understand GP's winter forecast comment about wavelengths in December being less of a problem than in February if pressure rises occur over towards Canada, giving a more west based NAO.

This chart is a case in point. We have the Russian high forecast to remain in situ, and then height rises behind the cut off troughs in the atlantic. Is this not exactly what was being suggested in the winter forecast for February as being a worry... and if so I am confused as to how it ISNT a worry in December.

Incidentally this chart also shows bad luck in its worst form. Is there anywhere in our part of the world with a worse SW flow than the UK?

However... as the thread is now titled the Hunt for Cold then let's also be clear headed about it: you would struggle to find a less zonal chart than this. Our luck is terrible... but small changes could bring big results from here.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[EML Network]

I agree the ramping in here can be a little OTT and I do urge caution of course(and yes I been critisized for being cautious aswell) but your last post was just as guilty as those ramping posts by posting a chart for Boxing day(384 hours away!) and worrying what it's showing!!

You can't have it both ways.

Yeah fair play, I can't really argue with that

instead I'll post a chart much nearer the current time frame, showing pretty much the same thing with the flat Azores , mind you there is also a possibility of High pressure linking up with that Greeny High (just to balance things out a little).

[chionomaniac]

Morning Ed , it was only two days ago you were talking about a Canadian warming in the near future, But then yesterday you began to see signs of a full in SSW early new year, can I ask why the sudden change of thought apart from what was showin in the models , because you seemed very keen of a CW for a long time , so so my point is , if things can change quite quickly , what's to say this next sign won't be another false dawn?

I was looking at a CW from the current wave 1 activity - it is looking that even though a warming has been achieved it may not meet the criteria for a CW.

The next forecast warming from another expected bout of wave activity is expected to affect the previously untouched 10 hPa level . The FI forecasts for this suggest something bigger and stronger at around 15 days - though caution should still be advised that this may not cause a SSW. However, we have another situation again this year that the vortex will be 'ripe' for the taking.

With only 10 days gone into winter, we have still a lot to be optimistic about.

[Backtrack]

guys a qs. Is it so unusial to c snow in scotland and higher parts of england? The reason i ask is some peeps going on about how we already seen snow in parts of the country. Plz remove if needs be.

Most certainly not! Higher parts of England & Scotland can receive snow from around mid Autumn.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Backtrack

[Marty G]

Hi All

Been around for a few years lurking shall we say..... I have to say that this forum is excellent with the members susch as Steve M, Nick S, Chronio TEITS etc.. giving their individual time to put out their ideas and general understanding of the models and possible outcomes of same. Apologies if i have missed anyone out there a few i know...

Anyway i have always been led to believe that the around 3rd week in January historically is when we are susceptible to a `snowy` spell. With the current outlook across the models, for us to a lasting spell of the `snowy stuff` is always at least a few days away at best and never getting closer.. I hav ealso noticed that theconstant displacement of the PV is causing mayhem of the models... DO you think that this id down to the fact the fact the the sea ice around the pole this year had an effect and also affecting the `models` output today...

Anyway enough of my rambling .. I hope it makes sense what I have just posted.....

best Regards

Martin

[SnowBallz]

And look what happened !!!!

Whilst every one else was talking about who was going to get the most snow, I was being cautious, and rightly so !!

I swear down, if anyone even dare mention something showing anything other than cold on here, they get trampled on...have some members learn't nothing over the past few days events on here....clearly not !!

Actually, that isn't true.

Members were discussing the models, which were - at the time - arriving at solutions which proposed cold conditions arriving. The debate was very much focused - quite rightly - on whether we'd get the cold first, and the debate for snow potential would be discussed thereafter. On countless occassions, I witnessed the sage posters wisely advising to refrain from talking about snow, as - at that range - it would be futile. So, to suggest otherwise, is quite disparaging to the intelligence and experience of a number of notable members on here.

You were being cautious. Great. So was everyone else, though. Of course there were the fair share of rampers and nay-sayers, but - in the main - I felt the general 'mood' to be one of wise caution, with frequent reliance on experienced members to make sense of what was clearly a very volatile weather pattern. I feel that there is a clear acceptance that the British Isles, by nature of it's geographical position, doesn't lend itself often to extreme cold, so it would be foolish to count ones' chickens before they'd been hatched. I simply haven't seen the majority doing that.

I don't think it's so much that mild posters get trampled on. I think that's a bit dramatic. As I mention above, I think there is a clear shared understanding that, the majority of the time, the British Isles will experience mild, atlantic, fairly mundane and non-eventful weather. So, that becomes the baseline. Interest quite understandably grows when there is a deviation from that baseline, either in forecast or indeed if it verifies. And it isn't always cold. If major storms are foreseen, or a heatwave of some sort - interest grows. That, surely, is understandable?

We are in the winter season now, and as such the 'extreme' for this season is any spell of severe cold weather. That's the deviation from the baseline, and that's what will determine interest. You can't force people to have an interest in every aspect of the weather, or every season - it's each very much to their own, and I think it should be left that way.

As for learning: I think we're all trying to learn, are we not? None of us are experts though, and I think one puts themselves in a vulnerable position if they begin to believe that they are. I think it's better to take the positives out of situations and what pleases me, is the fact that this current period - whether it verified or not - actually made people want to join the forum and enter the discussion. That's got to be a good thing

[Barry12]

This week? 1%

After the weekend? Probably 50/50 for a return to cold after Tuesday/Weds next weekl based on ensembles and background indicators (that's on opinion, not a scientific 50/50)

Doubt it's 1%, when a few ensembles are saying that block will remain throughout.

[Dean E]

Good afternoon folks,

Seems like the GFS 06z is another (small) step in the right direction. The block being modelled a little stronger and the Atlantic being a little slower at attacking from the West/South West.

Still concerned about Friday:

Thankfully, the GFS has downgraded the strength of the Low approaching the SW a little with strong winds being a little lighter, but the rainfall is something we really do not need. 10-30mm seems likely quite widely from today's outputs. Not good for the South West at all.

Really would like the block to hold and keep the lows out for a while, even a no mans lands situation would be welcomed just so the SW can dry out a little!

SM

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I was looking at a CW from the current wave 1 activity - it is looking that even though a warming has been achieved it may not meet the criteria for a CW.

The next forecast warming from another expected bout of wave activity is expected to affect the previously untouched 10 hPa level . The FI forecasts for this suggest something bigger and stronger at around 15 days - though caution should still be advised that this may not cause a SSW. However, we have another situation again this year that the vortex will be 'ripe' for the taking.

With only 10 days gone into winter, we have still a lot to be optimistic about.

Ok thanks for your reply Ed, guess its a waiting game then , but even then there is no guarantees of cold effecting us , there may be another short wave or another fragment of the PV that comes this way throwing energy over our shores again , so we need to be realistic in what we think will happen. Guess it may be just bad luck this time , but time will tell.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Theresnoway]

Well the 06z has got to be the most awful run yet if you are looking at it for potential cold and snow (which let's face it most of us on here do).

And to end it all off, we end up with the beginnings of a Bartlett High...ohh well...there's always next winter (JOKE)

Excellent news.

The fact that it is so far out means it stands a very, very small chance of verifying... (But must remember the same stands for when it is showing cold!)

[Richard Taylor]

Don't often venture in here. Given my location, I like nothing better than a good snowy spell of weather...as long as you don't have to walk or drive in it!

Anyway, plenty time for good snow events. I've seen deep snow in my part of the world any time between Oct & May over the years; easter is often more snowy than ealier in the winter!

So relax - I'm sure the signals will all point in the right direction soon enough. Maybe not for this month, but it isn't often you get a Dec like the one in 2010 (snow) or 1981 (extreme low temps after snow) - the former was a once in a hundred year event wasn't it? Nevertheless, I'm sure the sledges can be dusted down at some point!

[Snowly does it]

Doubt it's 1%, when a few ensembles are saying that block will remain throughout.

The 1% is only for the cold winning out this Thursday/Friday. We are now so close and the models in so much agreement that I cannot see any other outcome. However, once we reach the end of the weekend (which is the minimum amount of time it would take for it to change again) then things are more 50/50 as to the outcome. As you say, the block remains and looks like it will do for some time so there is a chance of things happening to our advantage for cold later on.

It would be utterly astonishing if anything other than a short term milder victory happens on Thursday and Friday. However, it is only Dec 10, we have a long long time ahead for hopeful snow.

[Chris K]

I apologise if this isn't really the right thread to ask in, but would someone be able to explain why the PV transferring over to Siberia is seen as a positive factor towards increasing our chances of a cold weather? Sorry if its an obvious answer hah...

I'm also wondering whether one factor for the current modelled unsettled weather, predominantly from the atlantic, is due to the movement of the PV as it's on its travels?

It has been a trend for quite a few runs now for it to shift location, along with the unsettled outlook in the medium term (for now). Perhaps IF it settles towards Siberia, with not much energy left behind, could we start, or have an increasing likelyhood, of seeing some interesting outputs? (Probably pure speculation I know)

Please don't shoot me if I'm completely off the ball. Very amateur learner here

[Dampdorset82]

Actually, that isn't true.

Members were discussing the models, which were - at the time - arriving at solutions which proposed cold conditions arriving. The debate was very much focused - quite rightly - on whether we'd get the cold first, and the debate for snow potential would be discussed thereafter. On countless occassions, I witnessed the sage posters wisely advising to refrain from talking about snow, as - at that range - it would be futile. So, to suggest otherwise, is quite disparaging to the intelligence and experience of a number of notable members on here.

You were being cautious. Great. So was everyone else, though. Of course there were the fair share of rampers and nay-sayers, but - in the main - I felt the general 'mood' to be one of wise caution, with frequent reliance on experienced members to make sense of what was clearly a very volatile weather pattern. I feel that there is a clear acceptance that the British Isles, by nature of it's geographical position, doesn't lend itself often to extreme cold, so it would be foolish to count ones' chickens before they'd been hatched. I simply haven't seen the majority doing that.

I don't think it's so much that mild posters get trampled on. I think that's a bit dramatic. As I mention above, I think there is a clear shared understanding that, the majority of the time, the British Isles will experience mild, atlantic, fairly mundane and non-eventful weather. So, that becomes the baseline. Interest quite understandably grows when there is a deviation from that baseline, either in forecast or indeed if it verifies. And it isn't always cold. If major storms are foreseen, or a heatwave of some sort - interest grows. That, surely, is understandable?

We are in the winter season now, and as such the 'extreme' for this season is any spell of severe cold weather. That's the deviation from the baseline, and that's what will determine interest. You can't force people to have an interest in every aspect of the weather, or every season - it's each very much to their own, and I think it should be left that way.

As for learning: I think we're all trying to learn, are we not? None of us are experts though, and I think one puts themselves in a vulnerable position if they begin to believe that they are. I think it's better to take the positives out of situations and what pleases me, is the fact that this current period - whether it verified or not - actually made people want to join the forum and enter the discussion. That's got to be a good thing

I agree to a certain extent but it is very frustrating when people cluctch at straws this a weather forum a not snow forum. If Ive heard screams potential or background signals when the models are quite clearly showing westerly winds and no sign of snow is just wrong. I agree yes people want snow but dont make scenarios up. Look at the models look at the pattern and comment on them dont say "that west flow is SCREAMING POTENTIAL i think i will get 10 foot of snow in 3 weeks time!!" (a bit dramatic but thats how frustrating it is )

edit - Yes we are trying to learn but lets learn then comment

and as a result we are losing some excellent knowlegable meterologists so its not just my view at all

Edited December 10, 2012 by Dampdorset82

[Iceaxecrampon]

Most certainly not! Higher parts of England & Scotland can receive snow from around mid Autumn.

Yes - Nevis and sheltered Corries in Scotland has and can hold snow all year round.

[CanadaAl]

I apologise if this isn't really the right thread to ask in, but would someone be able to explain why the PV transferring over to Siberia is seen as a positive factor towards increasing our chances of a cold weather? Sorry if its an obvious answer hah...

I'm also wondering whether one factor for the current modelled unsettled weather, predominantly from the atlantic, is due to the movement of the PV as it's on its travels?

It has been a trend for quite a few runs now for it to shift location, along with the unsettled outlook in the medium term (for now). Perhaps IF it settles towards Siberia, with not much energy left behind, could we start, or have an increasing likelyhood, of seeing some interesting outputs? (Probably pure speculation I know)

Please don't shoot me if I'm completely off the ball. Very amateur learner here

You've pretty much hit the nail on the head with what i'm thinking too. I generally think that the models are struggling with modelling this energy transfer. Guess we'll have to wait and see eh?

[bluearmy]

I apologise if this isn't really the right thread to ask in, but would someone be able to explain why the PV transferring over to Siberia is seen as a positive factor towards increasing our chances of a cold weather? Sorry if its an obvious answer hah...

I'm also wondering whether one factor for the current modelled unsettled weather, predominantly from the atlantic, is due to the movement of the PV as it's on its travels?

It has been a trend for quite a few runs now for it to shift location, along with the unsettled outlook in the medium term (for now). Perhaps IF it settles towards Siberia, with not much energy left behind, could we start, or have an increasing likelyhood, of seeing some interesting outputs? (Probably pure speculation I know)

Please don't shoot me if I'm completely off the ball. Very amateur learner here

you answered your own questions pretty well. if the siberian vortex will actually drive any deep cold in our direction is unknown. i would rather have a voretx in siberia rotating the flow anticlockwise than western greenland. where the heights are not low, they can more easily be filled by pressure rises.