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gottolovethisweather

Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

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Having not been about to view the models of late, I did wonder whether the 6z was showing a slightly different evolution and so too, does the 12z right now. Me is confused. cc_confused.gif

And here is another straw to clutch AWD, courtesy of Old Met Man.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75219-model-output-discussion-8th-december-onwards/page__st__400#entry2440506

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Whilst we've been straw clutching, here's another feasible outcome, i.e. it might eventually be a classic blocking scenario and who knows, a stalling font perhaps.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2440614

You could say the GFS and UKMO are both singing from rather similar hymn sheets and FI still remains at about Thursday, if not prior to that. sorry.gif

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it certainly is interesting to watch the models do a backtrack from showing a quick breakdown, if there's any breakdown at all!

Still, in terms of any battleground scenario our region is still not in the picture for snow although if the models continue to show that Russian high building and moving west and the pattern moving south west then who knows, we could be looking at seeing some of the white stuff.

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Monday night into Tuesday looks a cold, frosty & potentially foggy one.

Temperatures at surface level well below freezing for all:

post-12721-0-79633600-1355073375_thumb.j

With Upper air temperatures & Dewpoints also into negative territory;

post-12721-0-31285500-1355073419_thumb.jpost-12721-0-64024400-1355073427_thumb.j

With little if any breeze at the surface;

post-12721-0-67576100-1355073458_thumb.j

And predominetly clear skies across the West Country;

post-12721-0-71617200-1355073508_thumb.j

I would expect a widespread, harsh air frost for most of us away from the coast. One thing that could be noticeable in Dorset, Hampshire, Somerset, Bristol, Bath. Wiltshire & Gloucestershire is fog, and with negative temperatures, potentially freezing fog;

post-12721-0-31074300-1355073625_thumb.j

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it certainly is interesting to watch the models do a backtrack from showing a quick breakdown, if there's any breakdown at all!

Still, in terms of any battleground scenario our region is still not in the picture for snow although if the models continue to show that Russian high building and moving west and the pattern moving south west then who knows, we could be looking at seeing some of the white stuff.

Nothing mild on the charts for sure.. On the 00h run on Sunday they were widely 4/5/6. Frost and ice will still be an issue under any clear sky's.

On the 12z Average at best over the weekend.. Just shows how far away we are from knowing exactly what will happen for sure

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New thread to start afresh :)

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Certainly going to be putting the layers on over the next 5 days at least;

post-12721-0-06518200-1355074590_thumb.j

Brrrrrrr....

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Certainly going to be putting the layers on over the next 5 days at least;

post-12721-0-06518200-1355074590_thumb.j

Brrrrrrr....

And mine not too dissimilar with -3 from Wednesday night plus a little symbol on Friday which looks like a snow and sleet mix? Hmm .

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It looks like some areas may not see temperatures rise above freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Very bitter, with a High of 1C forcast here on Tuesday.

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I think I just read the first "winters over" post in the MOD thread. Not those words but something to the same affect. lol.

Looks increasingly likely that next weekend could be wet & windy. Glad I've almost finished my Christmas shopping now. :p

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Looking at countryfile and models.warming up for south from weds eve/thurs morning...a big disappointment from last weeks charts.we move on but I can't help feeling it will be feb/March for our chance of snowfall......thank you and goodnight

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That just brings me back to this one?? The last thread isn't on the main page, just the one before that??

Indeed, but if Paul opens a new thread, then that's his prerogative I suppose. Besides, I can't locate it either.

I think the last thread wondered off topic slightly, anyway onwards and upwards as I suggested.

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Latest from Ian;

W COUNTRY: Keeping close eye on potential for v wet & v windy weather into Fri; indeed, rain looks a likely key issue again here this month.

Looks like we could be entering round two with flooding issues after the cold weather at the beginning of the week. This time excessive winds could be an additional problem too.

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Looking at countryfile and models.warming up for south from weds eve/thurs morning...a big disappointment from last weeks charts.we move on but I can't help feeling it will be feb/March for our chance of snowfall......thank you and goodnight

I knew you would be back. rofl.gif

Chins up folks, when talking about the proverbial white crystallised stuff, it can and does occasionally happen, history tells us that mucah at least.

Personally, I will be grateful for a few cold sunny days before the predicted change comes about. ICE day anyone? clapping.gif

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Some more fergieweather Info;

W COUNTRY No strong snow signal in f'cast models for here, for those asking. Threat of further heavy rain events presents a greater concern.

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Looking at countryfile and models.warming up for south from weds eve/thurs morning...a big disappointment from last weeks charts.we move on but I can't help feeling it will be feb/March for our chance of snowfall......thank you and goodnight

Yes I saw that too but there was a fair few caveat words as "potentially as rain" and "things could change" confirming all the see sawing we have heard about on the models. Seeing the East's forecast and the BBC map I actually think I got to appreciate the scale of the what if scenario. Sorry if that sounds daft and simple to most. I am a complete novice and need pictures!

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Some more fergieweather Info;

W COUNTRY No strong snow signal in f'cast models for here, for those asking. Threat of further heavy rain events presents a greater concern.

Indeed, but that can also be read both ways, so I suggest things even now are up in the air and Wednesday/Thursday remains the date, out to which we can have any faith in the actual outcome.

Another small straw to clutch, with regards to something snowy.

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Yes I saw that too but there was a fair few caveat words as "potentially as rain" and "things could change" confirming all the see sawing we have heard about on the models. Seeing the East's forecast and the BBC map I actually think I got to appreciate the scale of the what if scenario. Sorry if that sounds daft and simple to most. I am a complete novice and need pictures!

Im not greedy .....a 30 minute flurry will do :-(..lets just pray for a miracle.:-/ lol

I knew you would be back. rofl.gif

Chins up folks, when talking about the proverbial white crystallised stuff, it can and does occasionally happen, history tells us that mucah at least.

Personally, I will be grateful for a few cold sunny days before the predicted change comes about. ICE day anyone? clapping.gif

yep......getting to be a bad habit lol.... Oh well a harsh frost for 2 days will have to do :-)

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Im not greedy .....a 30 minute flurry will do :-(..lets just pray for a miracle.:-/ lol

yep......getting to be a bad habit lol.... Oh well a harsh frost for 2 days will have to do :-)

Well as it is coming towards Christmas I believe you can be as greedy as you like. :) which reminds me I must find that letter paper and get my letter out to Father Christmas of what I want for Christmas........ Tee hee.

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Another small straw to clutch, with regards to something snowy.

Would you like some twezzers?

Real unknown end to this week weather wise, all possibilities within 600 miles of each other.

One thing that is certain i feel is the weather will be in the media towards the end of the week, for which reason i dont know.

Looking forward to a further cold week, following on form the last one which was chilly at times, a 2 week old spell for the start of winter not bad.

as long as the HP to our east stays there then a shot at some cold weather is always on the cards!

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I just got a reply on twitter from the Isle of Wight weather station and he told me this last week has been the most difficult week ever for forecasting and its not over just yet....he said a 25% chance of snow for the iow this week..but that can change ...fingers crossed

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I would just like to say, as my first ever post on here, that the weather still looks far from boring over the next few weeks. Potentially some quite stormy weather from next weekend, some vigorous shower activity behind the frontal bands, and if you believe the GFS 18Z, possibly cold again from the 23rd. Far from days of warm sector drizzle or anticyclonic gloomy.

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