Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

[Frosty.]

Sucked into the most interesting chart evolution in my life time. If its snow your after your really in the wrong country. Im sorry but I cant understand the moans the science behind the changes are great.

Agreed, we should face facts, the russian/scandi high is very probably going to remain out of our reach and the uk is going to become very unsettled with lots of rain and strong cyclonic winds at times, no sign of anything settled either, the gfs 00z would keep us rather cold to near average but the ecm is showing a trend towards slightly milder beyond this week. We are right on the western edge of the cold block in the next few days but then we lose it, it's sad but a fact.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Frosty039

[KTtom]

I think the problem with Russian highs is they often just sit in the same location, too far east to entertain us. The UK ends up in no mans land with a trough stuck to the west unable to progress eastwards. Stalemate and before you know it were heading into February.... for me we really need a good block to the north west initially to force the trough under the Russian high, then we might get somewhere...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I share your frustration, but I'm trying to look on the brighter side.

The pattern could be worse though, with a strong vortex over Greenland and a bg far Bartlett over Europe with seemingly never ending mild dross. What we do have is a pattern of an increasingly southerly tracking jet with +ve heights to our north and a strong Russian block which could back west and increase the heights to our north when the Atlantic trough eventually weakens and fills.

Remember much of central and northern Europe has benefited from the current pattern with regards to cold and snow ecently , but unfortunatley with us being on the margins at mercy of the Atlantic jet.

Well no because when the trough finally fills which could be 2wks away , even if hights did begin to build , and we were due to bring in a northeasterly , a short wave would come unto the equation and stop the hights from pushing this far to effect us. If its not one thing it's another .

[Great Plum]

Ok, so lets look where we are at... There's pretty firm agreement that we will have cold but benign weather until mid week and then a period of average temperature but very wet for most... This takes us to probably this time next week... What then?

Well, mild south westerlies seems unlikely to me... If you look at this morning's London ensembles:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

You can see that the mean drops below the average until the end of the run. With positive signs from the strat, and the trends we have seen in FI (6 or 7 of the last gfs runs have shown something distinctly chilly for the weekend before Christmas), then I believe it's a matter of 'when' and not 'if' cold weather returns...

(This is hard work typing on a phone!)

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the 00z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Monday December 10th 2012.

All models show remarkable consistency throughout their output this morning. With just small but subtle differences in synoptic patterns day to day. The High pressure area recently developed near to the Britis Isles remains dominant to the weather over the next 72 hours. The weather will be cold and settled with widespread night frosts and freezing fog patches up until Thursday with cold and sunny days. A few wintry showers will occur near to Eastern coasts over the next 48 hours with some light snow in places there.

GFS then shows a strengthening SE flow on Thursday with rain spreading quite quickly NE with some snow for a while in the North. For the remainder of the run the weather remains unsettled with spells of wind and rain mixed with a few drier, brighter and rather colder interludes. Christmas Day and Boxing Day on this run would likely be wet and windy days with the chance of snow reserved only for the higher mountains of Scotland.

The GFS Ensembles show an unsettled spell to come with copious rainfall at times for some. With 850's near or just below the long term mean most of the precipitation would be of rain but there is just enough scope for some wintry weather on the highest ground at times, chiefly in the North.

The Jet Stream shows the Southward moving flow over the UK currently giving way to a renewed arm streaming across the Atlantic towards Southern England and France by next weekend.

UKMO for midnight on Sunday shows a large High over NW Russia with Low pressure North of Scotland with an unstable Westerly flow over the UK bringing rain or showers to all areas through the weekend.

GEM shows a similar setup with Low after Low moving across the Atlantic and hitting the buffers of the large Russian High. The net result too for the UK is for wet and windy weather at times with just brief drier interludes in between with temperatures close to normal.

ECM finally completes the set with Low pressure never far away to the NW or West with rain at times for all with maybe a short drier interlude for the SE early next week. Temperatures here too would remain close to the seasonal normal at worst.

In Summary it's a very unsettled look to the UK weather later this week. After a few days of cold and frosty weather the Atlantic comes into the UK by Friday with stalling Low pressure areas remaining close by to the UK thereafter with bands of rain and showers for all with the renewed risk of flooding at times, particularly in the West. There seems little likelihood of snow of note for anyone once the unsettled spell arrives except from showers on the higher hills, moors and mountains.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Sucked into the most interesting chart evolution in my life time. If its snow your after your really in the wrong country. Im sorry but I cant understand the moans the science behind the changes are great.

The facts are that although we all find the science side interesting especially with the strat Side involved, 90% of us are massive coldies and want snow. We were on the way to something big the models had us believe , only to be let down at last minute. It teaches us all something I guess, it's just so frustrating when everything appeared to be in our favour.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[EML Network]

With everyone's eyes out to the West and East, a lot of people are missing what has popped up to our South.

That damn pesky Azores High, which was so bothersome last winter is back again after a short break away sight seeing.

How it's going to interact with the set up remains to be seen,the ECM chart for next Monday can go pretty much anywhere from here, IMO we'll have to endure a pretty awful week ahead, with rain for areas that really don't want it, some areas are likely to see wind Gusts of up to 60-70 MPH, potentially for an extended period of time too, I think the weather is one way or another going to be making headlines at the later end of this week.

I can't see anything but a prolonged period of Atlantic driven weather from this chart at + 144

[TEITS]

Absolute joke this has been , chasing shadows and getting sucked in to what?

Welcome to the world of model watching in the UK in winter.

Im hardened to disappointments due to many years on this forum. However what is wrong is to assume is any future cold spell will be downgraded like the recent one. This is flawed meteorologically speaking and you have to judge the model output on its own merits. We all thought cold spells like Dec 2009, 2010 would never happen again but they did!

Back to the models and for a change im going to disagree with Nick Sussex. I don't see a long haul to an E,ly based on the ECM output this morning. You only need to see the Atlantic LP weaken to give this block a chance to back W. As some of the GFS runs have indicated if we see undercutting it could occur earlier.

[Methuselah]

I'm a coldie, too; I always have been. But, when the science/models dictates that there is none likely, for the forseeable - what's the point in ramping?

[stainesbloke]

The facts are that although we all find the science side interesting especially with the strat Side involved, 90% of us are massive coldies and want snow. We were on the way to something big the models had us believe , only to be let down at last minute. It teaches us all something I guess, it's just so frustrating when everything appeared to be in our favour.

True, it is frustrating and a let-down if you want cold/snow (which I really do) but it looks like its not our time to get that just now. Teaches us all to regard chart outputs as possibilities not something 'nailed on'...I've seen things go pear shaped more times than I can remember, but also seen things go right unexpectedly many times too! With cold remaining in Europe who knows? Jan/Feb could be good, don't get too down about it.

[PLANET THANET]

I'm a coldie, too; I always have been. But, when the science/models dictates that there is none likely, for the forseeable - what's the point in ramping?

where is GP , he always managed to pull us back from the edge , or is he busy revising his winter forecast (I hope not!!)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The facts are that although we all find the science side interesting especially with the strat Side involved, 90% of us are massive coldies and want snow. We were on the way to something big the models had us believe , only to be let down at last minute. It teaches us all something I guess, it's just so frustrating when everything appeared to be in our favour.

If you had read RJS winter forecast you wouldn't be so disappointed. Coldest period 12-18 Dec, and only a possibility if any of snow. We all get excited when models show/tease and also when most folks favourite LRFer suggests a major freeze ahead. Sadly that's looking off the mark, it got close but its fallen before the flat stretch. Even using that method the siganls are weaker after this week thus I wouldn't bank on a secondary attempt at an easterly after next weekend as the first hurdle has not been cleared. Some have mentioned the SW potential flooding issue, its worth concentrating on that as it may not just be the SW that gets very problematic rainfall totals and wind storms. Very interesting weather ahead, that is not in doubt.

BFTP

Edited December 10, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Matty M]

still uncertainty at 96hrs, still 30% of members want a cold snowy breakdown.

ECM op is also much different to gfs and ukm

forecast very uncertain at this juncture.

[Rollo]

Let me take you back to the winter of of 1947 , up to around the 18th of January I believe the winter had been fairly nondescript with two or three failed Easterly attempts but we all know what happened after January 18 th.

[Tuxedo]

All I can add to those that are gutted by the lack of the anticipated cold that never materialised, if you want to avoid it happening again only look at or at least only consider charts that are within the T0 - T72 charts to deliver the weather they are predicting... As soon as you start looking beyond this timescale(; 2/3 days ) there accuracy drops of rapidly. Ignore all the hype that is generated from later charts no matter who the posts are from however if you enjoy the roller coaster ride of trying to predict and forecast the weather then soak it all in upto T240 but be prepared for the twist and turns to which I personally enjoy. A week in politics is said to be a long time a week in weather terms is an eternity away!

[Paul]

Locking this one now with a new thread open shortly for the start of the week & the 6z's.

New thread now up