Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Mesosphere]

[Tony Beets]

O ye have little faith!!! Some people on here are fruit loops, crying and throwing the towel in before anything is set in stone!! By the end of the weekend we should know either way. I'm firmly in the camp that thinks we will get this easterly!! You just watch!!!! Lol.

[Pixel]

Rubbish

Still unhappy, wondering if this thread was started all because of me !!

You are correct - remain unhappy the weather is ALL your fault.

Just come on here and gloat in the summer when its Pxxxing down with rain here in the summer

edit: just to be sure ... I forgot to add a smiley (-:

Edited December 7, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[weather eater]

Rubbish

Still unhappy, wondering if this thread was started all because of me !!

Yours was a good post and needed saying

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yours was a good post and needed saying

Yeah, I thought it was a perfectly valid viewpoint, the whole atmosphere in the model thread goes up and down more than a *insert dirty imagery here*

[joggs]

All i know is ive lost 60 hours sleep n im booked in to see a marriage counsilor due to the fact in the 2 hours sleep i get a night i shout in my sleep"the models oh yeh ooooo i loue that one n no that ones useless but im still seeing her/it". Im in a fab mood when top synoptics show n kids stay away when i stagger off laptop dazed lol oh well he he

[Zenarcher]

[Weather-history]

It could be worse, it could be like this virtually 14 years ago today

Edited December 7, 2012 by Weather-history

[PeteB]

To all those who feel like cutting their wrists I'll just remind you that the 2 most severe winters of the last 65 years started on the 26th of December(1962)and the 23rd of January(1947). In fact I've read that just a week before the 1947 big freeze the temperature was in the mid teens over much of the country. Plenty of time and model watching before we need to panic.

Pete

[mcweather]

This just tweeted by Fergie

@fergieweather: Tail-end of next week remains v interesting. Models diverge on solutions, but wIth potential for a 'battleground' snow event in W Country...

[BlueHedgehog074]

It could be worse, it could be like this virtually 14 years ago today

It's like an unhappy ending from a movie where the cold spell gets wiped out as fast as a bolt of lightning. :o At least there is that possibility next week for a Low Pressure system from to West to possibly undercut far enough South to give a broad area of the UK an attack of snow (although changes clearly likely from model update to model update).

[Bradowl]

To all those who feel like cutting their wrists I'll just remind you that the 2 most severe winters of the last 65 years started on the 26th of December(1962)and the 23rd of January(1947). In fact I've read that just a week before the 1947 big freeze the temperature was in the mid teens over much of the country. Plenty of time and model watching before we need to panic.

Pete

Large percentage of severe winters in late 70s and early 80s didn't get going until after Christmas.

[Aaron]

To all those who feel like cutting their wrists I'll just remind you that the 2 most severe winters of the last 65 years started on the 26th of December(1962)and the 23rd of January(1947). In fact I've read that just a week before the 1947 big freeze the temperature was in the mid teens over much of the country. Plenty of time and model watching before we need to panic.

Pete

We said that last year!

This just tweeted by Fergie

@fergieweather: Tail-end of next week remains v interesting. Models diverge on solutions, but wIth potential for a 'battleground' snow event in W Country...

That's really exciting for everyone else.. don't mind if I show little excitement by the prospects of snowfall in the West Country.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Aaron

[Froze were the Days]

Yeah still to play for although our chances of keeping the cold towards next weekend are far less than ALL models were showing a day or so ago. This country really struggles to get cold air from the continent at the best of times even when the Teleconnections are in our favour and as mentioned why had NONE of the models picked up the blasted SW until late yesterday, how many times has this happened over the last 10 years or so?? frustrating but keeping fingers crossed rather than model watching now:

Edited December 7, 2012 by Froze were the Days

[tonbridgemole]

We will all be snowed in by next friday then!!

[Chris K]

That's really exciting for everyone else.. don't mind if I show little excitement by the prospects of snowfall in the West Country.

He may of posted it for other reasons other than 'IMBYism'....for all we know it will shift East leaving the W country with rain and other areas under snow...or might not even happen at all?

It just goes to show we can't write anything off yet and the models are struggling.

[doog443]

I rarely post and only visit each winter. I have a genuine interest in the weather and the Model forum has been a great source of interest for me over many years.

It appears to me that this forum has been a victim of its own success. Long before I even joined I would marvel at the knowledge of some of the posters on here but back then there was a general acceptance that nothing was set in stone. Just a few years back the Model discussion thread wasn't somewhere where people would tread lightly. What went wrong?

Obviously its great for the forum that people are joining but the problem with social media is that nowadays it doesn't take much for someone to be 'an expert' and Im afraid the forum has become swamped with so called experts creating mass hysteria.

I really appreciate the efforts of the mods in trying to keep things on the straight and narrow but its now getting bloody hard work just to read this thread . Fortunately I know the posters to look out for, so scan the pages but a newcomer would be forgiven for thinking this place was an hysterical mess.

Edited December 7, 2012 by doog443

[LomondSnowstorm]

That's really exciting for everyone else.. don't mind if I show little excitement by the prospects of snowfall in the West Country.

You honestly think that if the West Country has snow that it'll somehow have turned mild everywhere else?

[Harve]

It could be worse, it could be like this virtually 14 years ago today

It doesn't seem to be too different to this year in all honesty - a cold spell with snow in the east that looks to be wiped away by mild weather? The difference is that our cold spell - as it stands - is a lot chillier than then, and temperatures aren't quite set to reach 10c.

[Aaron]

You honestly think that if the West Country has snow that it'll somehow have turned mild everywhere else?

No, but it may not affect anywhere else. Systems from the SW don't always make it here.

[cold snap]

Can understand the emotion

Alot of us have had sleepless nights ,we have put time into this because we are passionate about it

Need to see 18z start well I believe by 96 will know the outcome ,still time for change

[bobbydog]

personally, i think this winter might throw something good at us. after all we're only just into it and the 09/10 snowfest happened after xmas, as did (as has been pointed out) 62/63 and 47.

what makes me laugh is the 'godlike' status some of our resident 'experts' are elevated to when they ramp like hell (oh yes they do- under the guise of informed analysis) when a cold spell has a greater chance of happening than normal. they convince everyone that snowmageddon is 'nailed on' then quietly backtrack when, inevitably, the models "downgrade". the met office takes a lot of flak for 'fence sitting' but you will usually find that their short to medium range forecasts are spot on. if they are vague or unspecific, that is because the weather is at a stage which is difficult to predict and the wild swings of the model outcomes reflect this very well. some of our more informed members and forecasters have been telling us to ignore the details and look at anomaly and mean charts for overall guidance- good advice, as somewhere along the line, the weather should deliver the goods. however the details are the most difficult to predict and can throw a spanner in the works at short notice- as we have found out.

my point is, overall conditions can be great for the type of weather we are looking for but nothing is guaranteed. we can miss out by the narrowest of margins and this is always the case. therefore if anyone claims "we are going into the freezer", always take it with a pinch of salt until its +48 hours away or even less. or until the met office say it will happen.

[Jack Wales]

This cold spell looks less and less likely as time goes by. We have seen continuous downgrades in all models/ensembles of late, particularly regarding the heights over scandi and the location of the Euro low. The bottom line is that the jet stream is too amplified rendering the blocking to take up a more eastern position. If you look at the trend so far this winter, the severe cold has always been a week away (sound familiar?) and this could be the story of our winter. Don't get me wrong, I take my hat off to GP et al as their winter forecast is panning out according to plan regarding the northern hemisphere analogues, however for our tiny islands, the smallest divergence is proving to have a dramatic effect. Therefore, I expect a brief cold/dry spell until Tue/Wed next week followed by a more traditional mild zonal pattern.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Jack Wales

[West Sussex Kate]

48 hours ago things were looking very different! Can only hope that things will change for the better again!

[leemondo]

This cold spell looks less and less likely as time goes by. We have seen continuous downgrades in all models/ensembles of late, particularly regarding the heights over scandi and the location of the Euro low. The bottom line is that the jet stream is too amplified rendering the blocking to take up a more eastern position. If you look at the trend so far this winter, the severe cold has always been a week away (sound familiar?) and this could be the story of our winter. Don't get me wrong, I take my hat off to GP et al as their winter forecast is panning out according to plan regarding the northern hemisphere analogues, however for our tiny islands, the smallest divergence is proving to have a dramatic effect. Therefore, I expect a brief cold/dry spell until Tue/Wed next week followed by a more traditional mild zonal pattern.

Edited by Jack Wales, A minute ago.

name='cyclonic happiness' timestamp='1354918689' post='2438068']

This is a definite upgrade in the medium term, we have colder air over the country which is both further west and will hang on slightly longer compare to previous runs.

This could be the start of a string of upgrade over the next few days, if the pendulum can swing one way, then it can swing back the other just as far.

We should be happy with the offering tonight

not picking on you guys , but just using this to highlight why some of us noobs find it difficult to fathom what on earth is going on!