Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

We need to all relax before the ECM comes out

[jimben]

Liam Dutton has just tweeted that the trend for much colder weather for next week is still very much on it is just the snowfall that is causing problems, remember the Met Office have info that we are not privvy to

[stainesbloke]

Trying to be glass half full. Reality sucks.

Really. You could be living out of a cardboard box, have to walk 10 miles for water or be dying of cancer. I think a less favourable run of weather charts doesn't quite compare.

[Snowman.]

Will the ECM kill at least half the people on this forum?

[AGAL]

I won't say too much only that I've just had time to catch up with what seems to be the aftermath of the 12z GFS. I think it's perfectly undrestandable that people get so upset with the way the models show outrageous synotopics and alays default back as we approach the precipes, Although I hated that phrase coined I believe by the Labour Minisiter John Reed but as soon as we accept the models are 'Not Fit for Purpose' the better. You woulddn't buy a poduct that useless yet we and understandably let ourselfs get carried away and sucked in with copious uses of the terms 'nailed on and reliable time frame' . yet they are usless the lot of them , each model came on board giving it all that. and now to change so rapidly is beyond words and ony prooves they are useless. Me personally I organaise an angry mob with pitchforks and the like and smash the computers to smitthereens and never allow them to take the proverbial out of us never again.

My big concern is this sort of thing could lead to Hate Crimes against other computers I can see the news headlines now. Lap top tortured in Slough. Rasberry Pi kicked to death up the Edgeware Road. Desk Top PC tarred and feathered in SE London, PC world raized to the ground.in Milton Keynes. You see once hate starts it's hard to stop and it would break my heart to see innocent Pocket Calculators having to suffer for the crimes of GFS and UKMO over priced and overartted piles of junk.

Now where's that Who track Won't Get Fooled Again...yeah right.

Mods move at will if you feel the need to stick it this elswhere.

[Bradowl]

Calendar news weatherman still going for easterlies but short lived.

[Number 23]

I think it may be time to party like it's 2005

From what I've read we could still get more bites at the cherry later - if it were Feb 28th 2013 that would be a real kick in the baubles.

Edited December 7, 2012 by wbs mullet

[Snowmadsam]

totally lost with the model output :S

[SnowRules]

BBC weatherman said colder weather early next week (as expected). For the beginning of December it's not bad at all.

[stevofunnelcl]

i'm buying a punch bag !

time for a music interlude

[Karl83]

C'mon ECM do us a favour!

Edit: Ahhh damn, looks like its not going to. *sobs* lol

Edited December 7, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Snowfan50]

Well for me i never get my hopes up when cold is signalled for the Uk, we live in a boring oceanic climate, real cold is hard to get through. Im really fed up with looking at the models now, most people just take the weather as it comes, wont even know it will be cold untill they set out the door that morning.

I only model watch in the winter as what i really want is great cold and snowy weather, not to waste time stressing over the models. Jeeeze.

[Karl83]

Will the ECM kill at least half the people on this forum?

Yes I believe it will. It was all too good to be true! I've learnt a hell of a lot this last week - Don't like snow!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I reckon we're in a new era of cold winters assisted.by arctic ossillation. Europe has gone into the freezer each of the last 4 winters and it is happening again this year. Don't worry we will see plenty of cold I'm certain and this latest cold is not the least surprising!

[Nights King]

Another waste of a cold spell for the west country! As bout as much use as a chocolate teapot,

Yay a couple of frosts followed by atlantic mush

[SLEETY]

not over yet by a long way , the credibility of some posters in here saying its all over already could be going through the floor shortly

Still very cold at t144 and thats where fl begins

[Davey80]

Sm thinks its all over! Not so sure myself.

[liam300]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=1&archive=0

to my untrained eye its still looks good up to DEC 17 so don't panic!!

For you maybe. Poor southerners

[chionomaniac]

Atlantic attack by T168:

http://www.meteociel...H0-168.GIF?07-0

Quite a snowy attack that one with the block reinforcing to the east......

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another waste of a cold spell for the west country! As bout as much use as a chocolate teapot,

Yay a couple of frosts followed by atlantic mush

not so sure at 290m asl, ecmwf could give 2 days of snow, but GFS and UKMO 3 cold days then rain

[jimben]

Fun. – All Alright Says it all really that and the waxwings that arrived early

[Karl83]

Surely as things change so quickly in the models it can all swing back in our 'cold favour' at any time even though we are getting closer to 'the time'?

[Frosty_wsm]

I'm getting fed up with that m4, come back battleground scenarios of the 80s, all is forgiven lol

[Ian Brown]

I don't know what to say really, I'm a veteran of seeing many cold spells go wrong, but never in this particular way but what I always say is that we are all always learning.

We have somehow gone from being clear on the bridle to being caught just as the final fence was approaching. I said to Crewe Cold in a PM the other day that I thought the worst case was HP over us if we didn't get the connection of the HP to the North at the right time, well that worst case is going to happen but even then you could have hardly have forseen the likely quick return of the Atlantic.

I know people will say the blocking could remain at Northern latitudes but once you have got the jet in control over the UK, you need another reload of heights to shift the pattern again.

For us, for now, the chase is over.

[The Melting Snowman in Guernsey]

Rubbish

Still unhappy, wondering if this thread was started all because of me !!