Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Paul]

New thread for the model watching crew to use to let off some steam or get a bit emotional about what the models are showing. So if you fancy a massive ramp based on nothing but the fact you really want it to snow, or want to rant about what the models are showing, this is the place!

[Snowman.]

Nice touch might as well just say this.

PESKY SHORTWAVES!!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

That is all.

[kate1]

This thread is a cracking idea!!!

[Roadrunner]

S@#t. Fcuk. Bol@#$ks. A&@e. Bum. Po#y models...

Ah that's better. Back to model output discussion!

[Tony Beets]

I still reckon this is just a wobble!! Next 2 runs and we will get a massive swing back to an easterly!!!!

[Pixel]

meh... not half as much fun as watching stuff come out of prams !!!

edit: from the east that is (-:

Edited December 7, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[Bristawl Si]

Crap computer models! No private sector co that does modelling for its business would touch'em with a bargepole!

[jimben]

all an old timer has to say is expect the unexpected, the weather is dynamic it does what it wants to do, not always what the models suggest, this was how it was back in the day

[PolarWarsaw]

Such a frustrating period of model watching at the moment, it's hard to not rant.

What I find personally so very annoying is, that during the periods where the charts look great (at t168 and later) 95% of the forum and model thread contributors/watchers go into 'siberian express', 'lets buy the shovels' mode, blindly analysing every single frame section by section, run by run - talking about 'snow moving in from the south at t210' - yet the very second I or someone else pops in and makes a comment such as, 'its all in FI', 'there will be inveitable dramas', 'stop getting overally excited' and so I get my head taken off for not enjoying the charts, being negative and not getting into the 'swing of things'.

This is the SECOND, YES 2ND lesson of winter and we are only in the 2nd week of December. The models LEAD us up the garden path virtually everyday on a compilation of many different outcomes. It's why it becomes so frustrating and comments of 'told you so' come out of my mouth to thoose that sniped and swashed at my opinion. The climate and location we live in is so volatile in situations regarding winter its incredible, we may see 25 consistent GFS runs in addition to ECM/UKMO broadly reading the same hymn sheet all at t144, BUT that does not matter.

Just a few final notes of my rant.

*UNTIL THE WEATHER COMES INTO T48 - CHANCES ARE IT WONT! HAPPEN.

*DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING AFTER T48 AS GOSPEL, OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT.

*COLD SPELLS WILL ALWAYS* BE MODELED WELL, BETTER OR PERFECTLY AT T168 - DONT GET REMOTELY EXCITED OR POSITIVE ABOUT THEM

*DONT COUNT ANY CHICKENS.

*DONT RAMP ANYTHING UP UNTIL ITS ON YOUR DOORSTEP

*LASTLY - FOR GOD SAKE, DO NOT! UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES GET CAUGHT UP ON ANYTHING MODELED, OR WHAT ANYONE SAYS, AT ANYPOINT. THE TELECONNECTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFECT* FOR WEEKS NOW AND EVEN THOUGH GP,STEVE, NICK & CO HAVE CORRECTLY POINTED OUT EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE SO TO SPEAK, I'VE NOT SEEN A SNOWFLAKE YET.

Rant over.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

I still reckon this is just a wobble!! Next 2 runs and we will get a massive swing back to an easterly!!!!

ive got a gut feeling this will happen

[John Cox]

See this thread is going to be very popular....NOT

Ok, my moan.

I think the charts are great.

I really do and I wish everyone would stop moaning about how bad they are. Look at FI on GFS a lovely reload of cold at the end

Our Met guys in Ireland and I stated that this morning say :

"This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells."

Like your UKMet office. I really think they can see things and have access to info that us ordinary weather mortals dont have access to.

Edited December 7, 2012 by John Cox

[igloo50]

So dissapointing, changed plans for next week on the back of experts and models!!!!! Lets see what MetO say now?????????

[Somerset Squall]

I see all the truly cold/snowy weather is in FI again. This is why when people "the easterly is nailed" they really are setting themselves up for a fall. Until it's within 48hrs, it is not gospel. I have learnt that the hard way.

[A.J]

Phwoooar, modeltastic, orgasmic, 100% verification chance.....

and only T+1848 hours away....I'm counting those seconds by, COUNTING THEM!!!

[Barry12]

I am just annoyed at the fact that a few days ago everyone was saying how a cold easterly was nailed - including the 'experts', everything was 'in place' I read, over and over again. Then a few bad runs and it's all 'game over', over and over again people get excited about interesting sypnotics for it too just disappear. No one even the 'experts' imo, have a clue past 72 hours what the weather will be like. I was starting to think we were in a 'cold cycle' but were not, 2009/10 really was an exception and was 'a 100 year event' we won't see a repeat of December 2010 for a long, long time.

I think this Winter will be south-westerly dominated from no on, all the people moaning atleast you have had snow, still yet too see any.

P.s Paul please unmoderate me, i need cheering up

[John Cox]

They have back tracked.... Traitors.... Wont trust them again

"However, the forecaster said at the moment it appeared unlikely there would be any "large snowfalls" but there may be a chance of snowfalls on higher grounds near the east and north coast early next week."

[Captain Shortwave]

How many shortwaves does it take to ruin a cold snap

I'm sure we will get another shot soon, not to say that this one is well and truly over.

I have to admit even I feel a bit flat after this model run

[Somerset Squall]

See this thread is going to be very popular....NOT

Ok, my moan.

I think the charts are great.

I really do and I wish everyone would stop moaning about how bad they are. Look at FI on GFS a lovely reload of cold at the end

Yes, but in FI John, again. We will be chasing it forever (I do hope I'm wrong but that's what it feels like).

Edited December 7, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Fiddlesticks

[Wilxy]

Steve Murr needs to go back to tamper with the computer models as they were fine

Anyway the clear signal today is for the atlantic to fight back, and i favour that more because its happened to many times in the past.

On a positive note this winter looks alot better than last year, and its only december the 7th.

[Somerset Squall]

I am just annoyed at the fact that a few days ago everyone was saying how a cold easterly was nailed - including the 'experts', everything was 'in place' I read, over and over again. Then a few bad runs and it's all 'game over', over and over again people get excited about interesting sypnotics for it too just disappear. No one even the 'experts' imo, have a clue past 72 hours what the weather will be like.

Completely agree with this bit Barry, echoes my thoughts exactly.

[snowangel32]

I also feel that by the time next week comes the models will look completely different but wich way that is the question, what way it will go no one can answer that, they couldn't even predict two days ahead let alone a week or so just have to see what happens and dont get to excited or disappointed.

[Weather-history]

I look it this way, one day, a Scandinavian high will deliver a potent cold spell. I see no reason why it can't. The statistical elastic band is stretching on this point. The Greenland high has recently, there is no reason why a Scandinavian high can't.

[jimben]

As said in the great cult film Withnail And I "why trust one drug and not the other"