North West England Regional Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

...and if it were to come off (just a bit of fun this far out of course) then acc to the ppn charts we'd get 24hrs of snow, again, not unlike the stalling front of Feb '96 - Blackpool was cut off.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=1

Yeah I know - you're right of course - I'll try and reign things in myself! V rare we get even some kind of suggestion of something decent though!

I was living in the West Midlands in 96 so did not get it as bad as blackpool but it was a good 6 inches (the best since 91 ive personally seen and did not see again until jan 5th 210 (Salford))

[cfallon]

WOW! I am amazed only been away for a few hours! What's this I see? Is this the weekend or next week?

[snowdrifter]

WOW! I am amazed only been away for a few hours! What's this I see? Is this the weekend or next week?

Potential stalling front next Thurs. Obviously only one run but shows the potential...

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[feb1991blizzard]

WOW! I am amazed only been away for a few hours! What's this I see? Is this the weekend or next week?

WOW! I am amazed only been away for a few hours! What's this I see? Is this the weekend or next week?

Calm required and obvious caveats but the GFS is a stonker, GEFS variation but not many dire ones in there now, lots of stalled front / battleground / trough snow potential.

[cfallon]

Calm required and obvious caveats but the GFS is a stonker, GEFS variation but not many dire ones in there now, lots of stalled front / battleground / trough snow potential.

Nevertheless great to see and get some buzz back in the nw thread! Even at t160! :-)

[feb1991blizzard]

Nevertheless great to see and get some buzz back in the nw thread! Even at t160! :-)

Yes, if it verified i will be doing the allnighter this time next week with a bottle of bollinger...

[Snow free zone]

Great eye candy, but as SP has just said in the MO thread relying on breakdown scenarios a bit risky.

Another 24 hrs passed though and at least we now have some kind of consensus. Detail for potential snowfall into next week eagerly awaited.

Would be ironic if block strengthened so much that the fronts stay out to the west of Ireland ..... would be just our luck .....

[feb1991blizzard]

Stunning set of ensembles, these are for somewhere in East EIRE, i always pick somewhere further west in these setups so that we have more leeway and OMG they would have still been good if they were further East and they are in fact a few hundred miles west!!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=85&y=32

[snowdrifter]

Great eye candy, but as SP has just said in the MO thread relying on breakdown scenarios a bit risky.

Another 24 hrs passed though and at least we now have some kind of consensus. Detail for potential snowfall into next week eagerly awaited.

Would be ironic if block strengthened so much that the fronts stay out to the west of Ireland ..... would be just our luck .....

Maybe SFZ we'd get ALL the snow and anywhere East of Oldham was looking west in jealousy for once!

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[SP1986]

We have had 2 days of fog here, now in historical terms, nearly all severe winter have seen notable fog preceding them.

1947, 1963, and apparently there are reports from 1740 and 1683-4 which documents a great fog (presumably lasting a few days), occurring before a big freeze sets in. In all of those freezes, a period of snow followed the fog, followed by a 'great drop in temperature'

[Snow free zone]

Maybe SFZ we'd get ALL the snow and anywhere East of Oldham was looking west in jealousy for once!

Indeed.It may all be gone by the morning thats the problem with 'virtual snow' but at least its going to get a bit colder and we may get some snow. (not giving up on the reverse psychology)

[SP1986]

It looks like my garden will be hit realy badly by this cold spell, and that will be gutting, however I know what I'm going to lose, and I know what I can try to recover/get through, so I'm at peace with it now... time to take my mind off it and enjoy the weather, I just hope if it's going to be very cold, we get alot of snow!

[MrSunshine]

I think in the next 7 days snow is pretty much nailed on now, how much and when is still in question however.

[weathersupremacy]

Looking on METO weather forecast for this morning and it's saying snow for Stoke, Congleton and Leek? With sleet for Middlewich area.

[MrSunshine]

Looking on METO weather forecast for this morning and it's saying snow for Stoke, Congleton and Leek? With sleet for Middlewich area.

I would start taking notice of UKMO forecasts as of Sunday when I fully expect a warning to be issued for parts of the North West for Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday morning.

[weathersupremacy]

I would start taking notice of UKMO forecasts as of Sunday when I fully expect a warning to be issued for parts of the North West for Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Yes, maybe even sooner depending on how the 00z and 12z goes on Friday.

I do think the NW will get a good pasting this coming week.

[feb1991blizzard]

Sunday night looks interesting as well.

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Run it from Sunday through Tuesday.

Edited January 11, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[MrSunshine]

Yes, maybe even sooner depending on how the 00z and 12z goes on Friday.

I do think the NW will get a good pasting this coming week.

Yes I think once we get it we'll get it good style, I'm seeing frightening comparisons to the February 6th 1996 setup.

[Backtrack]

Raining here at 1.3C, ouch, must be freezing rain.

[MrSunshine]

Raining here at 1.3C, ouch, must be freezing rain.

I've seen it raining at below 0 in the past, all depends on uppers & dew points.

[weathersupremacy]

Sunday night looks interesting as well.

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Run it from Sunday through Tuesday.

It;s updated again. Saying 'snow' for Liverpool right now?

[MrSunshine]

It;s updated again. Saying 'snow' for Liverpool right now?

Have you got a link.

[HotCuppa]

Jeez, the models aren't even in unison about a cold spell at all yet and here we have people moaning about snow distribution. Did 09/10 and Dec '10 not teach people anything. If the flow is cold enough there is no way of telling this far out whether there will be troughs etc embedded in the flow. Plus we actually look favoured for Atlantic incursions on ECM, far more favourable up here than down in the south Midlands for example. Relax.

Dear me.

I think that is more in the way of wishful thinking at the moment. I just can't see much if anything in the way of snowfall. There was a mention by Ian B a few pages back saying the south of the region, cheshire has a better chance, but I am not so sure about that at all. Night and day time temperatures at the moment (imby) are at best average for the time of year. +4C day, and +3C night, with fog at times. Now wether the temperatures will drop again during Friday and the first part of Saturday is another thing, the upper air temps really don't look that inspiring from my own personal experience, but then with the right setup it really wouldn't matter too much.

By Monday we have a rain band moving in over NW England whether the current temperatures are going to be low enough is anyone's guess, but so far it looks like it's going to be of the rain variety, we just have to hope the cold can hold on, and hope that local temperatures really fall away more so for low lying areas and west facing coasts, otherwise the best that will probably happen is freezing rain and the worst rain.

Even by Monday things are extremely uncertain, let alone this weekend..so far imby I'm not convinced since I was hoping to see lower temperatures by now, and all we are getting is seasonal average...let's see what happens.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think that is more in the way of wishful thinking at the moment. I just can't see much if anything in the way of snowfall. There was a mention by Ian B a few pages back saying the south of the region, cheshire has a better chance, but I am not so sure about that at all. Night and day time temperatures at the moment (imby) are at best average for the time of year. +4C day, and +3C night, with fog at times. Now wether the temperatures will drop again during Friday and the first part of Saturday is another thing, the upper air temps really don't look that inspiring from my own personal experience, but then with the right setup it really wouldn't matter too much.

By Monday we have a rain band moving in over NW England whether the current temperatures are going to be low enough is anyone's guess, but so far it looks like it's going to be of the rain variety, we just have to hope the cold can hold on, and hope that local temperatures really fall away more so for low lying areas and west facing coasts, otherwise the best that will probably happen is freezing rain and the worst rain.

Even by Monday things are extremely uncertain, let alone this weekend..so far imby I'm not convinced since I was hoping to see lower temperatures by now, and all we are getting is seasonal average...let's see what happens.

If something like the 0z GFS came off we'd be looking at 10-20cm

Seeing as I've never even seen 10cm+ of lying snow since I was 6 or 7 I'd quite happily take this GFS run.

Edited January 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

If something like the 0z GFS came off we'd be looking at 10-20cm

Seeing as I've never even seen 10cm+ of lying snow since I was 6 or 7 I'd quite happily take this GFS run.

Ive seen these setups before though, i can see it ending up a SW England and Part of Wales only event, at least the cold looks like its nailed now though, cant see this trending back east again now.

Have you got a link.

Its the same link as above, it automatically updates, looks marginal for the coast.

EDIT : just seen the GEM and NOGAPS, we need a good ECM now.

Edited January 11, 2013 by feb1991blizzard