North West England Regional Thread

[UV-RAY]

We can never say never as things can quickly change at short notice and by god they best do!

[Snow free zone]

Well surprising for the NW but next weeks snow seems to have vanished for our region, I suggest we all avoid the news in the next week if we wish to keep our sanity.

Was never going to be widespread snow regardless of what the model output was showing. Get the cold in place and a NW element to the wind and we're laughing, anything else and we can more or less forget about snow - cold and dry will be the order of the day.

All irrelevant anyway, as the way things are changing forecasts will most probably be altered again. Who'd be a forecaster when the supposed 2 most reliable models show so much divergence 4 days out, the only one that seems to be unmoved is the UK mets own model. Somethings afoot thats for sure, in my short time of taking an interest of looking at the models i can't remember seeing such uncertainty at such a short timescale before.

Will be interesting to see where we end up.

[davacr123]

Met have finally updated the temps for the next few days as was showing +5 for tomorrow now more realistic as for the models they are all over the place hardly even agreeing for 3 days ahead never mind later on next week and fed up of all the silly bickering of this model is right because of ....... Then actually if you look at this, this one is right no one really knows which is correct it will be a case of now casting until things settle down in my opinion

[snowdrifter]

Anyone who lives in the NW should spend any spare cash on extra thermals rather than a new sledge. Unless wind direction goes to a NNW (which I highly doubt) or the E'ly element has so much oomph that the Penines are irrelevant then as others have said, it'll be cold and dry. As I used to say when I was a kid - 'It's a waste of cold weather - this could be bringing snow..." However - so much better than mild and wet.

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[UV-RAY]

Anyone who lives in the NW should spend any spare cash on extra thermals rather than a new sledge. Unless wind direction goes to a NNW (which I highly doubt) or the E'ly element has so much oomph that the Penines are irrelevant then as others have said, it'll be cold and dry. As I used to say when I was a kid - 'It's a waste of cold weather - this cold be bringing snow..." However - so much better than mild and wet.

Our best bet would be if the GEM verified, that would bring the trough down the Western side on Monday.

[Snow free zone]

Agree SD, you never know though a bit of a shift here and a shove there and we could be in a feb 1996 position ....... wishful thinking but anything can and probably will happen. (If only )

[Cheshire Freeze]

Jeez, the models aren't even in unison about a cold spell at all yet and here we have people moaning about snow distribution. Did 09/10 and Dec '10 not teach people anything. If the flow is cold enough there is no way of telling this far out whether there will be troughs etc embedded in the flow. Plus we actually look favoured for Atlantic incursions on ECM, far more favourable up here than down in the south Midlands for example. Relax.

Dear me.

[UV-RAY]

Jeez, the models aren't even in unison about a cold spell at all yet and here we have people moaning about snow distribution. Did 09/10 and Dec '10 not teach people anything. If the flow is cold enough there is no way of telling this far out whether there will be troughs etc embedded in the flow. Plus we actually look favoured for Atlantic incursions on ECM, far more favourable up here than down in the south Midlands for example. Relax.

Dear me.

Ha Ha, come off it CC you'll be on here moaning with the best of them if we don't see anything. On a serious note I quite agree with you and any attack from the West which looks highly likely in this set up will deliver the goods.

[MrSunshine]

December 17/18th 2010 we got lucky, will we be lucky again only time will tell one thing for sure however is its going to be mighty cold going into the start of next week, I wouldn't rule Sunday night temps of -10 out of the equation.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ha Ha, come off it CC you'll be on here moaning with the best of them if we don't see anything. On a serious note I quite agree with you and any attack from the West which looks highly likely in this set up will deliver the goods.

I'll be moaning because I'm yet to see over 5cm here in the last 10 years!

[UV-RAY]

I'll be moaning because I'm yet to see over 5cm here in the last 10 years!

You'll be taking that to the grave with you.

[Cheshire Freeze]

You'll be taking that to the grave with you.

Last deep depth was probably end of Dec 2000......about 7-8cm

Other falls since have been about 5cm at max e.g Feb 2010, Dec 2010 etc

Shocking.

[UV-RAY]

Last deep depth was probably end of Dec 2000......about 7-8cm

Other falls since have been about 5cm at max e.g Feb 2010, Dec 2010 etc

Shocking.

we got 10 cm in 2009/ 10 and December 2010. The most we've seen was was in Februaury 1996 and the winter of 78/79, over 30cm back then. I'm hoping for something similar as this cold spell progresses with the threat of attacks from the SW and West.

[Snow free zone]

Last deep depth was probably end of Dec 2000......about 7-8cm

Other falls since have been about 5cm at max e.g Feb 2010, Dec 2010 etc

Shocking.

And I thought we do poorly for snow here ... but then again 2009 & 2010 have skewed the memory here more recently.

Last winter and this winter up to now are certainly indicative of the more normal winters for us here = bugger all

[snowdrifter]

http://www.dailymail...ed-country.html

'Western areas will be a bit more sheltered from the conditions.’ How nice for us!!

Hi CC - yes Dec 2010 can of course happen again here as we didn't expect that but I just don't want to get expectant. Anyway its far better to get pleasantly surprised than let down. Sorry didn't realised you'd had it so bad snow-wise.

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[cheshire snow]

Well the GFS 12z mild fest is starting very soon

lets hope all the other models behave themselves LOL

C.S

Edit

lets not forget the rain that is meant to cross the region on Monday

Edited January 10, 2013 by cheshire snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

we got 10 cm in 2009/ 10 and December 2010. The most we've seen was was in Februaury 1996 and the winter of 78/79, over 30cm back then. I'm hoping for something similar as this cold spell progresses with the threat of attacks from the SW and West.

I've never seen over 10cm of snow on the ground in my life.

Actually, tell a lie I remember some days spent at my grandparents in the mid 90's.....they lived at about 170m above sea level back then and I can remember seeing snow drifted 3 feet up the garage door one time....was a farm and my grandad had to get a tractor to dig his car out! I was very young back then though and can hardly remember!

[SnowObsessor90]

Last deep depth was probably end of Dec 2000......about 7-8cm

Other falls since have been about 5cm at max e.g Feb 2010, Dec 2010 etc

Shocking.

Are sure you didn't see much in Jan 2010? had one of the highest snow accumulations in many a year round here.

[UV-RAY]

I've never seen over 10cm of snow on the ground in my life.

Actually, tell a lie I remember some days spent at my grandparents in the mid 90's.....they lived at about 170m above sea level back then and I can remember seeing snow drifted 3 feet up the garage door one time....was a farm and my grandad had to get a tractor to dig his car out! I was very young back then though and can hardly remember!

Fingers crossed CC your way overdue a good dumping of the white stuff.

[feb1991blizzard]

I've never seen over 10cm of snow on the ground in my life.

Actually, tell a lie I remember some days spent at my grandparents in the mid 90's.....they lived at about 170m above sea level back then and I can remember seeing snow drifted 3 feet up the garage door one time....was a farm and my grandad had to get a tractor to dig his car out! I was very young back then though and can hardly remember!

What do you reckon then, are we going to do it or not? ive been up in the middle of the night watching your posts for the last few days but i cant post in mod, ive still got my doubts but surely a little sw / small trough cant completely write of a months weather, the background signals surely suggest at some point we will either get a potent enough easterly to get showers across / wave feature from NE erly or a slider / frontal battleground situation at some point, ive got my doubts about the Next week but....

[Liam J]

Only reached 2.7c here today and dropping like a stone, down to 1.5c under clear skies and calm winds

[snowdrifter]

I may be wrong but this looks good for Monday snow-wise. Don't quite know how it got here though!:

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[davacr123]

Well there we go gfs staring its slide towards the other models so looking better

[cfallon]

And the gfs reverts and winter is back on with snow heading over the entire uk at t102! That mod thread has made me loose what little hair I have left over the past couple of days!

[davacr123]

Also looking more like the meto output