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Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well another mix and match?For me the pressure rise never gets there over greenland with any real strength.Very complex indeed

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Amazing to see the ECM move back to a similar place from it's 00z run 24 hours ago.

Great model watching,

tumblr_mdnl8eRfb91rrxhj7.gif

Hahahahaha sorry have to say that picture made me laugh big time because i can imagine some here doing that.

I expect this post to be deleted at some point :p

Still...it is nerve wrenching if you watch this run by run. Even if this initial cold spell doesnt really last im still glad we arent in the same position as last year...yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

It gets pretty messy in FI but until we get the details past what we may have already sorted out there's not much point worrying about it:

ECM1-168.GIF?26-12

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Icy
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL

So ECM a half way houser.. All three mixed .. CONSISTENCY WISE UKMO.... Nothing else to say. The way GFS and ECM have ahowed allsorts last few runs it is just get a pen and scribble blindly... After seeing the ECM I have begun tiltin towards the UKMO

Edit: 216 Seems a better block?

Edited by Jupiters Winter
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Model variability remains very high, we are far from a clear solution yet.

Except from the UKMO which has been rock steady in what it's been showing for days now, some on here really need to stop jumping to conclusions and writing stuff like it's over or the writings on the wall because it clearly isn't yet, is it!

From my years of model watching and being a lurker in this model discussion thread the one model I would want on board is the UKMO, do some of you not even remember years back when both the gfs and the ecm were showing cold for days and days yet the ukmo was having none of it and in the end it was correct and it could very well be correct this time too, the next few days will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The only thing the models are really telling us ATM is that beyond the 1st of December there is no strong trend. Almost every model we see goes for a slightly different evolution, ens has no strong signal re pressure. Essential there are unresolved issues still around the energy direction after the tip of Greenland.

I might seem odd but to be fair to the models it's obvious that a tiny change in the troughing makes a big difference re over , under or through the block. What we need to see is some consistence in the trends so uncertain untl this time tomorrow at least IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth

So ECM a half way houser.. All three mixed .. CONSISTENCY WISE UKMO.... Nothing else to say. The way GFS and ECM have ahowed allsorts last few runs it is just get a pen and scribble blindly... After seeing the ECM I have begun tiltin towards the UKMO

IMO the output is trying to get a handle on the energy up around greenland. Until this is resolved the rest of any run is pointless. This close but if you look at other out put and not just each run I would lean towards the block holding out and the energy going north. Yes its what I want but if I saw it the other way I would say so. What a day of watching we have in front of us.

Just seen you have similar thoughts Iceberg.

Edited by snow drift
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

(Sorry for nicking link from above)

Those ensembles are still cold for the time of year. The mean doesn't get above 0c, with very few members hitting 5c. Not the deep cold or sustained cold most want, but for late November & early December they are still below average and could be a lot worse.

The Operational is still a cold run throughout, with transient snow at times in the north, at lower levels too, and very well supported.

The UKMO still projects a more widespread colder outlook, although in not sure what to make of its T144 chart, with energy very close to going over the block;

http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0

The ECM is an improvement on its 12z run, going back to something closer to the UKMO up to T144;

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

It does send energy over the block afterwards, and I suspect the UKMO would follow too, bringing something similar to what the GFS shows, cold zonality;

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

So all in all, a bit of disappointment if you were hoping for some early sustained deep cold, but by no means a disaster either with mild weather still looking very limited for the foreseeable.

Temperatures look like being below average for most for most of the time, with snow still possible on northern hills, and maybe transient snowfalls down to lower levels in the north briefly.

It's like a football match IMO, not the perfect outcome, a win, but not the worst outcome either, a defeat. We have the equivalent of a draw.

Off to work I go. Enjoy the roller coaster all!

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

Like I said earlier, the writing was on the wall. The ECM is rarely wrong at that timeframe.

Let this be a lesson to people getting ahead of themselves before we have proceedings within the 96-120 hours timeframe.

This is the perfect example of why you should wait before jumping to conclusions!! A very COLD shower for some this morning!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

Yes this could go either way now. Interesting times ahead. If heights remain high to the north I believe we will see some colder weather by mid december.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

The only thing the models are really telling us ATM is that beyond the 1st of December there is no strong trend. Almost every model we see goes for a slightly different evolution, ens has no strong signal re pressure. Essential there are unresolved issues still around the energy direction after the tip of Greenland.

I might seem odd but to be fair to the models it's obvious that a tiny change in the troughing makes a big difference re over , under or through the block. What we need to see is some consistence in the trends so uncertain untl this time tomorrow at least IMHO.

We have got consistence now Hp over the the N east dragging colder air in for the rest of the week becoming drier with night frosts according to the latest from the met. Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth

This is the perfect example of why you should wait before jumping to conclusions!! A very COLD shower for some this morning!!!!

Why, he maybe right. Nothing resolved. fool.giffool.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Although I hope the UKMO is correct here I'd be very cautious now as it seems to be losing more support from the other models and it wouldn't be the first time the UKMO has been the last one to drop an idea.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

Why, he maybe right. Nothing resolved. fool.giffool.gif

I know that, that's the point I want to make, the models need at least another 24 hours watching to see which route we take. Knee jerk reactions just don't help less experienced members like me.

I'm not getting at people just saying keep the emotions intact.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Icy
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL

All three have their own solutions - As for consistency UKMO is only one standing firm. As ECM and GFS have supported the UKMO like musical chairs. UKMO/NOGAPS with ECM catching up and GFS far from the rest but not avoidable..

Edit: Or as a negative point of view. GFS with support from the GEM and little support from the ECM and no support from UKMO/NOGAPS.

Although I hope the UKMO is correct here I'd be very cautious now as it seems to be losing more support from the other models and it wouldn't be the first the UKMO has been the last one to drop an idea.

Edited by Jupiters Winter
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Posted
  • Location: Bedford
  • Location: Bedford

before we all praise the ECM lets not forgot that the GFS is hideous, but i suppose the GFS is deemed useless if it shows mild,

the good news is that in the earlier timeframe ECM is an improvement the bad news is by 168 it all goes wrong anyway

Edited by Snowy Easterlies
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

Except from the UKMO which has been rock steady in what it's been showing for days now, some on here really need to stop jumping to conclusions and writing stuff like it's over or the writings on the wall because it clearly isn't yet, is it!

From my years of model watching and being a lurker in this model discussion thread the one model I would want on board is the UKMO, do some of you not even remember years back when both the gfs and the ecm were showing cold for days and days yet the ukmo was having none of it and in the end it was correct and it could very well be correct this time too, the next few days will tell.

Precisely, UKMO has been rock solid with its support for the cold spell. Definitely the model you want on board for a cold spell. Yes, this February was a classic example, the GFS and ECM teasing with cold shots for weeks beforehand, and only when the UKMO finally backed it up did the cold spell materialize.

Agreed, the pessimism on here recently has been most annoying. I dont blame anyone for getting worried, I certainly was today. But to write off the cold spell altogether is a tad foolish IMO

I stick to the simple rule of waiting until 2 runs in a row where the ECM+GFS+UKMO all show mild conditions.This has not, at any point occurred, and so the cold spell was always still going to occur according to this simple rule.

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

Is this NOT the time to mention the verification stats which currently show the GFS 00z to be top of the pile by some way?

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

And to be as equally patronising back to you CC, let his be a lesson to you getting ahead of yourself after one model run...

I didn't really understand that either to be honest, especially not after the UKMO came out with a broadly similar output to what it had before, some of my comments there weren't exactly coherent but it's bizarre to 'claim victory' on an outcome that didn't even have cross model agreement.

Still a heck of a lot to be sorted out but the main thing is that both the ECM and UKMO are agreed on that low tracking up towards Western Greenland (even if the ECM doesn't quite get there) rather than shifting the energy eastwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Although I hope the UKMO is correct here I'd be very cautious now as it seems to be losing more support from the other models and it wouldn't be the first time the UKMO has been the last one to drop an idea.

The UKMO will often follow the previous days ECM, so it will probably change by the 12z.

The ecm run last night was an outlier for next weekend in the speed of the Atlantic coming back in so I think this mornings slower transition is generally more reflective of the ensemble spread last night.

The GFS flip is the most worrying, as not only does it bring back zonality and +ve NAO, the PV is then looking very well organised and that would be 2-3 weeks written off.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

ECM and GFS still playing catch up with the UKMO leading the way.

Great run from the UKMO this morning and is the form horse to follow.

I don't think you really believe that yourself do you CC ? The pitfalls of this evolution were obvious and as it has come into the nearer timeframes, the energy at Northern latitudes has sunk us as it so often has in the past.

A real problem for Exeter today when they update their outlook, assume they will follow a blend of the ECM ensembles and the GFS.

Edited by Terry Michael Wood
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I don't think you really believe that yourself do you CC ? The pitfalls of this evolution were obvious and as it has come into the nearer timeframes, the energy at Northern latitudes has sunk us as it so often has in the past.

A real problem for Exeter today when they update their outlook, assume they will follow a blend of the ECM ensembles and the GFS.

So the ukmo produce the charts on the ecm and gfs ens?I really didnt know that.
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