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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

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And remember: the models do not control the weather!

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112518/gfsnh-0-42.png?18

GFS out to 42- feelking chilly in that NE Wind- crunch time coming soon- It will interesting if it sticks to its guns!

theres changes at 66- but its east, less negative tilt of the trough so the GFS resembles the UKMO even more...

we await the canadian development....

S

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Eyes down folks, our favourite run of the day (the GFS 18z) is trickling out. Will it be momentous, or just momentous crap?

Just watch it produce a screaming snowy Beast from the East from +72 to the end all the way from Siberia with -15cs, just to confuse and torment us a bit more.

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Already the pub run has deepened the low similarly to the UKMO, 10mb lower pressure than the ECM:

gfs-0-66.png?18

ECM:

ECM1-72.GIF

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The 0z runs are not massive. If they aren't cold or mild- the 12z's will probably be opposite- there is no 'massive' runs now, apart from human input and the resultant output- we need to focus less on the details of the nwp for the time being and I'm sure you, Ian, knows that

Yes, it's foolish to assign importance to any particular run. All they do is use the current data and that is subject to change, especially in a very fluid situation such as the one we are in. I shall continue to look at the overall patterns, if people want avoid heart attacks/anxiety/depression then they can do the same!

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If I read nicks post earlier correctly, I understood that the NOAA gathering.gif supported a blend of the gfs and ukmo rather than ecm, so perhaps the ecm is just under the weather today. As I mentioned before, I can't see a return to mild weather for more than a few days and we could get several bites of the cherry here, it's not the same nightmare we had for the majority of last winter, things are still promising for a cold wntry outlook, whether it's cold zonal or continental arctic, fingers crossed for 18z.drunk.gif

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T78 and it is virtually identical to the 12z.

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Irish met service have gone with the ECM for Saturday, but a note of caution "by no means certain"?

not over yet ECM in the morning will decide. so lets not panic!

The Irish Met use ECM as their forecasting tool - they basically show the latest ECM operational graphics - in the run up to 2010 cold spell ECM were steadfast behind the upcoming cold and the Irish Met's forecasts matched this prediction - then a few days before that spell commenced the ECM threw a wobbler and showed milder conditions pushing through as they projected a ridge to collapse - low and behold the next day the forecast on Met Eireann was for mild conditions to become established rather than the cold they had been predicting for several days - the next run the ECM flipped back and within a few hours the Met Eireann website updated to confirm that the cold spell was now coming after all - on the flip side a similar thing happened in January this year when for several runs ECM were showing a north-easterly airflow becoming established (against other models) and Met Eireann stated that a very cold snowy spell was on the way that weekend - ECM came in to line with the other models the next day and the forecasts were updated to reflect same. I therefore always look on sites such as Net Weather for a more balanced view on things as I feel Met Eireann have all their eggs in one basket so to speak.

The current situation has no bearing on what went before but if I was a betting man and based on NOAA discussions, CPC charts etc. I would expect ECM to come in to line tomorrow with UKMO etc. However the weather has a habit of making fools of us all so we wait and see what the 18z and tomorrows runs bring..............

EWS

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The low looks deeper over Europe (than the 12z) at 78hrs so it should bring those colder uppers from the NE towards us!

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See the difference in the low 990hpa vs 1010hpa

GFS

gfs-0-90_sts9.png

ECM

ECM1-96_vhp3.GIF

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So far it's looking okay .interesting this model watching.

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naefs 12z is different to naefs 00z. although not quite in the ecm 12z suite area, its headed in that direction. seems to take energy more se rather than the east of ecm to begin with (which would give the possibility of shortwaves running across the s of the uk with snowfall possible to the north ) but then definitely a change from recent output to follow. there is a stronger mean northern arm across the n atlantic post T180 than we have seen before. i

the extended ecm ens for holland are clearly not as cold as previously but such is the nature of a more atlantic driven pattern with a southerly jet, there seem more likelihood of snowfall !

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Still early but it looks like this run will disrupt the trough again so it won't follow the ECM

I'd give a 65% prob of ECM flipping back tomorrow morning

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Well the 18Z is nothing like the ECM regarding the low heading up to greenland at T90.

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18z does not follow the ECM,

18z

ECM

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I'm actually sweating here still we move on the gfs getting near 100 hours now still okay

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I'm actually sweating here still we move on the gfs getting near 100 hours now still okay

This is model watching....TO THE EXTREME! hahaha

Looking v. good so far out to 102hrs! Then again, I don't usually have this much faith in the pub run...

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Just to add as I said earlier the 18z is quite reliable these days imo

Eventhough it got the label 'pub run' justifably years ago it's very much sober these days

Going quite well at 102hrs!

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What's with the non-default font, as makes it difficult to read.

i copied and pasted whilst i waited for the new thread to open. it must have shrunk !!!

the 18z a tad different with the jet. T114 is our next opportunity to compare with ecm 12z

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