Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[January Snowstorm]

IF, the ECM does prove to be correct it's time to stop rubbishing the 06z run as it was the first to pick up on things going awol.

Of course that's a big if right now

[cold snap]

Biggest model nightmare from the ECM at 168 here comes the Atlantic

The difference from gfs to ecmf is astonishing

Can't believe it

[ChartViewer]

The ECM is a shocker and the block is smashed by T144.....Somehow this doesnt back all teleconnective signals.....Very interesting 7 day model watching period ahead

[beng]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

I think on the ECM, the small surface high pressure in NE Canada prevents the low from taking the UKMO/GFS track. I suspect it's right so the real cold may be delayed a few more days.

[Jonan92]

That's really bad luck, all the signs pointed to a good outlook but it seems that it's not going to happen as we wished

[LomondSnowstorm]

If the ECM is right, we might as well not have bothered taking the ensembles/composites/bigger picture approach and just taken a random guess because there's really nothing until tonight that supported it. I would add that it isn't so bad at +192, with -4C uppers coming into western Scotland and the vortex still disrupted:

but it's still a long way from what would appear to be a plausible evolution.

[Mark Neal.]

Sorry, but correct me if i'm wrong. But what if the ECM this evening was a mild outlier ( at mild side of the essembles which are yet to come out).. Just a thought?!

Seriously some people in here need to calm down and relax. Having just read John Holmes excellent analysis there really isn't too much to worry about, the back ground signals look good, UKMO & Gfs too. If the next few runs of GFS & UKMO drop the idea of this cold developing then i will start to get concerned.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Speechless at 192 it's gets worse

[Isolated Frost]

I'm sorry folks but you need to look at anything that is not NWP based- as GP noted for some bizarre reason, in times of pattern change we seem to be engrained on the NWP? ECM ensembles will be very interesting I'm sure- just because the ECM has agreed with the cannon fodder doesn't mean it's right, the NWP has been awol throughout this spell.

Play children, I'm not saying stop, but please, stop it with the kneejerk reactions and look outside the box..?

[TEITS]

Well for any of us who were model watching prior to 2009, this kind of thing happened virtually every time at the T120-T144 range.

ECM T144 not bad ? ? It's game over for cold going well forward from there.

Didn't you say the same during Dec 2009 when the ECM threw a few wobbles over a 48hr period!

Im not saying the ECM is wrong but after recent winters the milder model runs aren't always right. Come later this evening I have a sneaky feeling the fax charts will be based on the UKMO.

At the moment nobody can really say whether the ECM or GFS/UKMO are correct but im not going to base my prediction on bias alone!!

[Ian Brown]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.

[Frosty.]

It's time to take a step back and take stock of the situation rather than throwing in the towel on the basis of 1 op run, the ecm has been a bit iffy in the last few days compared to the ukmo at least, it's not over until GP says its over

[Weathizard]

Absolutely awful from the ECM, terrible goes against everything, very strange

[Interitus]

Not a massive shock on the ECM really, it has just brought forward the low pressures that featured on 0z and in other models. There is still the possibility of cold weather by next weekend, maybe reduced in intensity before a slight lull which was already expected, beyond which the cold and pressure patterns are still in place to the north and east.

[Ice BIast]

Please calm down guys, besides, T216 is not bad anyway.

Edited November 25, 2012 by lce Blast

[Eskimo]

If it's any consolation, the ECM has always flipped flopped more than Mahatma Ghandi on a hot day.

[PubliusEnigma]

What the hell ? This is an evolution of the 00Z but in an even worse direction... GFS and UKMO solid on the cold outlook,

ECM completely at odds with the UKMO. Which one has it right ? and which one will back down..

[Jason H]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.

LOL...You're very good, I'll give you that.

[Snowy Easterlies]

it's only one run, if it shows this again tomorrow i will be worried.

its not one run though ECM hasn't been that great all weekend

what a kick in the proverbials, i suppose its back to chasing cold charts at T300 again

Edited November 25, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Geordiesnow]

IF, the ECM does prove to be correct it's time to stop rubbishing the 06z run as it was the first to pick up on things going awol.

Of course that's a big if right now

Yep, and whilst the ECM has been a little bit inconsistent in its outputs, it has been consistent in sending that trough into Scandi for many runs now, the GFS agrees with this(I still don't understand how the GFS has backed the UKMO in people's eyes) so whilst the UKMO has perhaps rather surprisingly has not backed down, the ECM has not either, still I did not expect to see a horror show of a run like this though.

The UKMO was nearly on the money in the last cold snap but for a late change of a shortwave heading from the Labrador Sea into Greenland which killed off the Greenland high much quicker than it should so it will be interesting too see which model is right on this occasion. UKMO is really the only model I can see which has got snow potential within 120 hours, the GFS is not cold enough for low level snow until a later timeframe.

Of course, if the ECM is too keen on sending a bit too much energy further East, then the rest of its output will be wrong, however if the GFS/UKMO have not picked this up, then their outputs will be totally wrong! The GFS only backs the UKMO up regarding the Atlantic ridge but still disagrees with the positioning of the trough/low pressure system towards our east which determines how cold any cold set up gets!

[Isolated Frost]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.

Oh Ian how you love to play us all

It's a shame because your insight would have helped quite a few inexperienced members on here, and you really were doing quite well up until now- I mean, you aint even trying there are you?

[Ian Brown]

Didn't you say the same during Dec 2009 when the ECM threw a few wobbles over a 48hr period!

Im not saying the ECM is wrong but after recent winters the milder model runs aren't always right. Come later this evening I have a sneaky feeling the fax charts will be based on the UKMO.

At the moment nobody can really say whether the ECM or GFS/UKMO are correct but im not going to base my prediction on bias alone!!

Dave, you are a big fan of the ECM and no doubt if it were the GFS showing this we would be seeing people rubbish it, which to be fair plenty of people do in the US with some justification.

I doubt if the 18z will clarify matters but the morning runs will seal it, we have been here too many times but this will probably end up ranking in about 3rd place behind the 2006 episode and the Kettley.

[ukpaul]

You woudn't credit it. Just as we start to get agreement ECM does, in fact, wobble in the way that I suggested it would be typical to.

Still, no change in the overall pattern and this run is not part of it.

[bradymk]

A disappointing ECM run yes but it sounds like November 2011 in here. I am eagerly awaiting these fax charts tonight, can not see them going for the ECM output with the confidence that they seem to have for the upcoming cold weather. More runs needed. Ian please come and assure some members that think the world is ending right now.

Edited November 25, 2012 by bradythemole

[weather eater]

Am I the only one not surprised by some of tonights output, not because I have predicted this evolution it’s just that this sort of thing is what I expect from model outputs, now this may be a good call by the ECM, GEM, BOM and NOGAPS, but surely some of you who have been around for a long time know that it’s just as likely to be a red herring with normal service resumed tomorrow.