Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

How to follow the models without getting too stressed out!


johnholmes

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

How to follow the models without getting too stressed out!

It’s that time of year when every nuance of every run from GFS, ECMWF and UK Met is scrutinised with a fine toothcomb for minor changes which MIGHT give the cold and snow most folk on Net Weather crave for during the winter period.

There are a few ways of reducing the stress this seems to cause some of you. On a high after one run, deep despondency after the next one!

The most obvious is don’t watch each run, stick with once a day or perhaps rely on the more objective posters for a good idea what the models have on offer. Those by Gibby and Frosty spring to mind. Or read the Met O 1-3, 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks. They may not have the excitement of some posters but they are about as free from hype as either amateurs or professionals can get.

If you must keep totting up the numbers for viewing figures for Net Weather then what is a less stressful way?

One and I am quite pleased to see some taking this on board this year. Compare like with like at long time scales which is where most of you seem to get your ‘kicks’ from. How far out is that? Anything beyond T+240 in my view, so watch whatever run you prefer, 00, 06, 12 or 18Z and STICK with that until it is down to T+240, then again STICK with a time frame that corresponds with the runs from ECM so that is 00 or 12z. This means you can then compare the two models for consistency. By the time you are down to T+144 you have UK Met as well, again at 00 and 12z.Remember it is consistency run to run at the same time and with inter model consistency which you are looking for.

The above gets away from the oft heard argument of which GFS run is the most reliable. Different folk have their own favourites and data in Net Wx Guides will give you factual information on what each run contains. You can also check out how accurate the 500mb charts are on the NOAA web site both for the northern hemisphere and the more local European region.

By now (T+144) you can begin to look at run to run if you wish so for at least 10 days you have saved a lot of the ups and downs of watching every single 6 hour output from GFS cutting it down to every 24 hours!

Another way for time scales beyond T+144, honest it does work, is to look at the 500mb charts issued by GFS-ECMWF twice daily with a time scale validity of 6-10 days, 00 and 12z outputs, and NOAA once daily for two time scales, 6-10 and 8-14 days ahead. They do give, if used carefully, about a 65-70% accuracy in the 6-16 or so day time scale for how the upper air pattern is predicted to be. It really is no use ‘hoping’ GFS is right at T+200 hours say with a lovely looking northerly, backed up perhaps by a couple of other runs from it, when the anomaly charts show no sign of any upper air flow from north of west, no trough over Scandinavia and no ridge in the Iceland/Greenland region.

Of course sometimes these charts are not very helpful in their guidance and there are rules which I use to try and ensure I only use them when a variety of parameters are in place. As with any model do NOT take just one run or one day. Watch how the 3 I’ve named develop over 2-3 days. IF they show consistency from day to day in an overall evolution and consistency with one another then you can be fairly certain that the pattern they are predicting will be pretty close to what occurs 6-15 days down the line. Another model that may give additional help at 500mb are the outputs from NAEFS. I have not done any check on this output so can make no comment about how accurate it may be. It does give charts out to T+384 with 500mb anomaly expectations.

I hope this rough guide I use may help new folk and perhaps persuade some of the longer Net Wx followers to try this idea?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...