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This thread is purely for links to environment and climate research papers and reports. You may upload pdf and word documents that are in the public domain.

No discussion allowed in this thread.. Thanks.

An overview of the 2010-12 drought and its dramatic termination. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

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As much as 44 billion tons of nitrogen and 850 billion tons of carbon stored in arctic permafrost, or frozen ground, could be released into the environment as the region begins to thaw over the next century as a result of a warmer planet according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey. This nitrogen and carbon are likely to impact ecosystems, the atmosphere, and water resources including rivers and lakes. For context, this is roughly the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere today.

USGS Press Release: http://www.usgs.gov/...me#.UI0OH8V1GSr

The Paper itself: http://www.agu.org/p...2GL051958.shtml

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

Abstract

We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El NiËœno/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low.

Posted Image

Observed annual global temperature, unadjusted (pink) and adjusted for short-term variations due to solar variability, volcanoes and ENSO (red) as in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011). 12-months running averages are shown as well as linear trend lines, and compared to the scenarios of the IPCC (blue range and lines from the third assessment, green from the fourth assessment report). Projections are aligned in the graph so that they start (in 1990 and 2000, respectively) on the linear trend line of the (adjusted) observational data.

Posted Image

Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line; AVISO data from (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales) and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011)). Tide gauge data were aligned to give the same mean during 1993–2010 as the altimeter data. The scenarios of the IPCC are again shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.

PDF here: http://iopscience.io..._7_4_044035.pdf

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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Weather warning

Study examines climate change as a national security issue

A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change — national security.

A new report co-authored by Michael McElroy, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.

The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.

"Over the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization — to concentrate people in smaller areas," McElroy said. "We've built an infrastructure — whether it's where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges — that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough."

Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.

On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters — whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support — could affect security.

"By recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes," Baker said.

The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.

http://environment.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf

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April was the 338th consecutive month (over 28 years) with a global temperature above the 20th century average. 

The combined average temperature over the ocean and land surface for April of this year was the 13th warmest on record (out of 134 years). Here are a few weather highlights for April:

• Australia: April, 2013 saw the 5th warmest April average maximum temperature since records began in 1900.
• North America: April, 2013 snow cover extent was the 3rd largest since records began in 1967.
• United Kingdom: April 2013 tied with April 2012 as the coolest April since 1989
• Antarctic: Sea ice extent for April was the 5th largest on record, 9.1 percent above the 1981-2010 average.
• Arctic: April sea ice extent was the 7th smallest on record, 2.6 percent below the 1981-2010 average.

 

The map below shows temperature anomalies for the month of April. Credit NOAA/NCDC

 

 

post-12319-0-57170000-1369206967_thumb.j

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more near real time climate reporting comes online. Haven't looked closely at it but looks quite good although probably not much different to some other sites, although after another quick look it's quite comprehensive.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/

Edited by knocker
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All-Time Heat Records Broken in . . . Alaska?!

A massive dome of high pressure, sometimes referred to as a "heat dome," has set up shop over Alaska, bringing all-time record temperatures just a few weeks after parts of the state had a record cold start to spring. In some cases, towns in Alaska were warmer on Monday and Tuesday than most locations in the lower 48 states.

Posted ImageForecast temperature anomalies on June 19 from the GFS computer model.

Click image to enlarge. Credit: WeatherBell.com.

 

EXCITEMENT ABOUNDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES WERE FELT ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS . . . HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR BROKEN . . . BUT TODAYS TEMPERATURES SOARED BEYOND ANYTHING PREVIOUSLY SEEN IN THIS AREA.

IN VALDEZ . . . THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 75 DEGREES SET IN 1997 WAS SHATTERED WHEN . . . AT 45 MINUTES AFTER 3 PM...THE MERCURY IN OUR THERMOMETER SHOT UP TO 90 DEGREES. AFTER A BRIEF DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S . . . THE MERCURY AGAIN REGISTERED 90 DEGREES AT 15 MINUTES BEFORE 6 PM.

THIS ALSO CRUSHED THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ANY DAY OF THE YEAR . . . AND FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE . . . WHICH WAS 87 DEGREES AND WAS ACHIEVED TWICE . . . ON BOTH THE 25TH AND THE 26TH OF JUNE IN 1953. A LOCAL WEATHER SPOTTER IN TOWN RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES NEAR THE HOSPITAL DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS WELL. SUN-WORSHIPERS WERE OUT IN FORCE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS . . . AS THE TEMPERATURE AT 10      PM WAS STILL AN ASTOUNDING 77 DEGREES.  http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/all-time-heat-records-broken-in-alaska-heat-wave-to-continue-16131

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Subduction zone earthquake as potential trigger of submarine hydrocarbon seepage

 

 

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is abundant in marine sediments1, 2. Submarine seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and mechanisms that can trigger episodic seep events are poorly understood2, 3, 4. For example, critical gas pressures have been predicted to develop beneath impermeable sediments that bear gas hydrates, making them susceptible to mechanical failure and gas release5, 6. Gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, but the role of earthquakes as triggers of hydrocarbon seepage through gas-hydrate-bearing sediments has been only superficially addressed7, 8. Here we present geochemical analyses of sediment cores retrieved from the convergent margin off Pakistan. We find that a substantial increase in the upward flux of gas occurred within a few decades of a Mw 8.1 earthquake in 1945—the strongest earthquake reported for the Arabian Sea. Our seismic reflection data suggest that co-seismic shaking fractured gas-hydrate-bearing sediments, creating pathways for the free gas to migrate from a shallow reservoir within the gas hydrate stability zone into the water column. We conservatively estimate that 3.26×108 mol of methane have been discharged from the seep site since the earthquake. We therefore suggest that hydrocarbon seepage triggered by earthquakes needs to be considered in local and global carbon budgets at active continental margin

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1886.html

 

pity cannot see the full report as behind a pay wall

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Good Afternoon Everyone,

I am not certain if I have posted in the correct thread, but if I have not please accept my apologies and moderator please transfer to the correct one.

Please find below a link to an article from "Off Shore Technology" which I trust that you find of interest.

http://www.offshore-technology.com/features/feature-arctic-sea-ice-decline-climate-change-nersc/?WT.mc_id=WN_Feat

It is a bit confusing to me as I am not an expert on the subject, but I though that I read in other posts that the sea ice has held up better this year over the summer months and is considerably better than ladt year's. The report that I have provrded the link to appears to contradict this. Cpould someone more knowledgable please clarify this for me.

Many thanks

Kind regards

Dave

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New paper finds Arctic ice is controlled by natural cycles http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/12/new-paper-finds-arctic-sea-ice-is.html

 

Here' the full abstract, so nobody is misled by the editorialised biased nature of the link and your description.

 

 

A Signal of Persistent Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice

Satellite data suggest an Arctic sea ice–climate system in rapid transformation, yet its long-term natural modes of variability are poorly known. Here, we integrate and synthesize a set of multi-century historical records of Atlantic Arctic sea ice, supplemented with high-resolution paleo proxy records, each reflecting primarily winter/spring sea ice conditions. We establish a signal of pervasive and persistent multidecadal (~60–90 year) fluctuations that is most pronounced in the Greenland Sea, and weakens further away. Covariability between sea ice and Atlantic multidecadal variability as represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is evident during the instrumental record, including an abrupt change at the onset of the early 20th century warming (ETCW). Similar covariability through previous centuries is evident from comparison of the longest historical sea ice records and paleo proxy reconstructions of sea ice and the AMO. This observational evidence supports recent modelling studies that have suggested that Arctic sea ice is intrinsically linked to Atlantic multidecadal variability. This may have implications for understanding the recent negative trend in Arctic winter sea ice extent, although because the losses have been greater in summer, other processes and feedbacks are also important.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058084/abstract

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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The Future of Arctic Sea Ice

 

Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of the state of global climate because of both its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. Accelerated melting of the perennial sea ice cover has occurred since the late 1990s, which is important to the pan-Arctic region, through effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulations, the Greenland ice sheet, snow cover, permafrost, and vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation, native coastal communities, and commercial activities, as well as effects on the global surface energy and moisture budgets, atmospheric and oceanic circulations, and geosphere-biosphere feedbacks. However, a system-level understanding of critical Arctic processes and feedbacks is still lacking. To better understand the past and present states and estimate future trajectories of Arctic sea ice and climate, we argue that it is critical to advance hierarchical regional climate modeling and coordinate it with the design of an integrated Arctic observing system to constrain models.

 

http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345

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