Hurricane Sandy

[Iceberg]

Recap have just found pressure of 946 and dropping with secure 90mph winds so expect an upgrade from the Nhc.

A huge swave of strong winds already found the sw.

[Coast]

http-~~-//www.youtube.c...l?v=yXMU2qwCVag Edited October 29, 2012 by Coast

[Iceberg]

Recap have just found pressure of 946 and dropping with secure 90mph winds so expect an upgrade from the Nhc.

A huge swave of strong winds already found the sw.

As expected the nhc have upped sandy to 75kts at 946mb, with further strengthening to 80kts.

Vortex drop also measured surface winds of nearly 80kts so this seems conservative.

Up until now the max nhc had her reaching was 70 kts, so this is both unforecasted and so concerning.

Sandy has consistantly had higher winds and lower pressure than forecasted and there is no reason to suggest this will stop now.

Not sure why the nhc are being so conservative tbh,

All of this will have a bearing on the winds and surge at landfall so any model predictions will already be too low imho.

I saw one which showed a 15ft storm surge with an addition 10-15ft max wave height into manhatten from the north of long island.......

[Paul Ashford]

HD webcam on the top of the NYT building.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/28/nyregion/nyt-webcam.html

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Sandy is at 75kts. May even make cat 2 again IMO, the shear has lessened, and Sandy is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

[Steve C]

I find this chart a bit fascinating.

It seems that the hurricane chances will all but disappear in 48 hours, but yet in 120, there's a 10% chance. Given that it's extremely unlikely to be a true hurricane, then I guess this represents the likely strength of the post tropical storm. The 1% chance is interesting in that case.

[Polar Bear]

I suspect they are quite capable of handling these seas. There is nothing mind boggling about them.

Doubt it knocker - well known amongst seafarers - a big ship is a small boat in big seas. With those winds and swell I suspect it it is not ideal for those types of passenger ship as many has found out before - mind you depends on the path it takes.#

Yep sure enough just checked the tracks of all those yesterday - explorer of the Seas, and Queen Mary are on a different track to yesterday - also a norwegian passenger boat. All seem to be travelling nearer the coast - hardly any boats out actually where the storm is. There is a wind layer too so you can see the relation of the storms wind to the boats etc.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?oldmmsi=311316000&zoom=10&olddate=lastknown#

Edited October 29, 2012 by Polar Bear

[Iceberg]

oh dear pressure just found of 941mb and getting rapidly lower.....

[gottolovethisweather]

oh dear pressure just found of 941mb and getting rapidly lower.....

Where's this from?

[Sainsbo]

Where's this from?

Wunderground's Hurricane Hunter is also now showing pressure at 941

http://www.wundergro...t201218_hd.html

Edited October 29, 2012 by Sainsbo

[NL]

Wunderground's Hurricane Hunter is also now showing pressure at 941

http://www.wundergro...t201218_hd.html

Just been confirmed from the reconnaissance aircraft that the centre is 941mb..

[gottolovethisweather]

Listening to Coast's link above, Washington currently getting hit by some serious deluges it seems. Over 12 inches is expected there due to wind convergence enhancing the rainfall. The main concern, in spite of some overhyping by the US media, surely has to be the amounts of rainfall, rather than the winds. NYC could see winds approximately at 70mph which is bad enough but not exceptional for them, I would imagine.

Nevertheless, I'm not so sure I'd like to facing the brunt of this powerful storm.

Edited October 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Steve C]

oh dear pressure just found of 941mb and getting rapidly lower.....

I've got a really bad feeling about this storm; the sheer size of it. 941 mb and a category one storm implies to me a wide area of very strong winds.

Not the same thing as a Katrina, which had the huge storm surge, but it's going to lead to massive disruption imo.

[knocker]

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE

CENTER...WITH AN EYE OCCASIONALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY

IMPRESSIVE...SFMR MEASUREMENTS...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AND DROPSONDE

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS

HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL TRAVERSE

THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT

THIS TIME...SOME MORE STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS

POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MECHANISM

FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE

OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION

AS THAT MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TYPE

OF SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A WELL-MARKED WARM AND COLD FRONT LIE NOT

FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY. AS THE

CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THESE FRONTS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME

EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO

BE COMPLETE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS

TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO

HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING

RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE

GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER

LANDFALL.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR ABOUT

360/13...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT MOVES BETWEEN

THE CYCLONE AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR

ATLANTIC CANADA...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...THE

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS

THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA

SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT

NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE

CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES

POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND

WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 35.9N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 29/1800Z 37.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 30/0600Z 39.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

36H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 02/0600Z 45.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 03/0600Z 46.5N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

Current Baltimore radar

[Steve C]

Listening to Coast's link above, Washington currently getting hit by some serious deluges it seems. Over 12 inches is expected there due to wind convergence enhancing the rainfall. The main concern, in spite of some overhyping by the US media, surely has to be the amounts of rainfall, rather than the winds. NYC could see winds approximately at 70mph which is bad enough but not exceptional for them, I would imagine.

Nevertheless, I'm not so sure I'd like to facing the brunt of this powerful storm.

I reckon it'll be wind, rain and snow, with some coastal flooding - it's going to stretch emergency resources for sure.

[gottolovethisweather]

I reckon it'll be wind, rain and snow, with some coastal flooding - it's going to stretch emergency resources for sure.

Yes, undoubtedly the coastal flooding and the very large area impacted by such an event makes it a storm to remember and also to fear. However, we are not in the position to confirm whether it warrants a superstorm status just yet, as ever, time will tell.

What I'm saying is, be aware of the hype, not in here but by the media driven coverage. It's a bit like these forums at times, the true situation is not always reflected by the actual events on the ground. Same can be said of forecasts not turningh out as expected, once again driven by hype or overexcitedness, which of course, we are all guilty of.

Whatever, I'm enjoying tracking this and it is entertaining and informative stuff.

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure if this link to the satellite images has been posted but they appear to be regularly updated.

http://www.wundergro...201218_sat.html

Edited October 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[kold weather]

Listening to Coast's link above, Washington currently getting hit by some serious deluges it seems. Over 12 inches is expected there due to wind convergence enhancing the rainfall. The main concern, in spite of some overhyping by the US media, surely has to be the amounts of rainfall, rather than the winds. NYC could see winds approximately at 70mph which is bad enough but not exceptional for them, I would imagine.

Nevertheless, I'm not so sure I'd like to facing the brunt of this powerful storm.

Surge is the main worry IMO, especially given the sheer size of the area that is being hit by the surge.

That being said, I'd be rather worried about New York. Given the winds up over 100M is likely going to be a bit stronger than surface reports and the gusts are higher again, it'll be interesting to see how the older buildings handle it. Afterall most of them haven't been built with a Sandy type system in mind,

[gottolovethisweather]

Surge is the main worry IMO, especially given the sheer size of the area that is being hit by the surge.

That being said, I'd be rather worried about New York. Given the winds up over 100M is likely going to be a bit stronger than surface reports and the gusts are higher again, it'll be interesting to see how the older buildings handle it. Afterall most of them haven't been built with a Sandy type system in mind,

True Kold, that is becoming very relevant as I listen to the latest information. As you say surge, flooding etc. has to be a big worry but again, I can't help thinking that hype drives our interest and when all is said and done, it hopefully won't cost any more people's lives.

[toggerob]

The Coast Guard is responding to a distressed vessel with 17 people aboard approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras N.C.

Crews received a call from the owner of the 180-foot, three mast tall ship, HMS Bounty, saying she had lost communication with the vessel’s crew late Sunday evening. An air crew from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City launched aboard an HC-130 Hercules aircraft, which later arrived on scene and reestablished communications with the Bounty’s crew. The vessel is reportedly taking on water and is without propulsion. The Coast Guard is continuing to monitor the Bounty’s situation.

The vessel is about 160 miles west of the eye of hurricane Sandy.

[Buzz]

The Coast Guard is responding to a distressed vessel with 17 people aboard approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras N.C.

Crews received a call from the owner of the 180-foot, three mast tall ship, HMS Bounty, saying she had lost communication with the vessel’s crew late Sunday evening. An air crew from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City launched aboard an HC-130 Hercules aircraft, which later arrived on scene and reestablished communications with the Bounty’s crew. The vessel is reportedly taking on water and is without propulsion. The Coast Guard is continuing to monitor the Bounty’s situation.

The vessel is about 160 miles west of the eye of hurricane Sandy.

Some more on that:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/10/29/ns-hms-bounty-hurricane-sandy.html

Edited October 29, 2012 by Buzz

[Staffordshire]

Bet there will be some intense wind tunnels created in NY!

[Staffordshire]

staffordshire its not live

ill just try get the link working because its a great webcam hold on!

[toggerob]

ALL 17 crew from HMS Bounty have now been rescued and accounted for. Some good news at least, lets hope the ship holds her own against the onslaught.

[Staffordshire]

Brookyln bridge - http://t.co/VgiKNhpm

Statue of liberty - http://earthcam.com/usa/newyork/statueofliberty/index.php

not sure if they will work though just c/p on my phone sorry if not! but you can find loads by searching hurricane webcam into twitter!