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At least 14 people have died in the devastation wreaked by Superstorm Sandy - including two children killed instantly by a falling tree.

The children aged 11 and 13 were crushed by the toppled tree as they played outside their home in Westchester County, New York state at 6.45pm on Sunday.

Other fatalities include a woman who was electrocuted to death by falling wires on Manhattan’s 134th street and a 29-year-old man who was killed in a car crash in Queens.

A man was crushed by a falling tree in Ulster County, New York State, and one death has been reported in Connecticut and two people were killed when their pick-up was crushed by a falling tree in New Jersey.

Police in Toronto said a woman was killed by a falling sign as high winds closed in on Canada's largest city.

A 30-year-old man was killed when a tree fell on his house on 166th street in Flushing, New York City.

Meanwhile a 62-year-old man was killed as he let his dog out on his porch in Oley, Pennsylvania.

An eight-year-old boy died when he was crushed by a falling tree in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania.

And a jogger was reportedly hospitalised after being crushed by a falling tree in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225108/Hurricane-Sandy-2012-One-million-power-New-York-Bloomberg-warns-city-prepare-worst.html

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I have not had time to read more than the last four pages of the thread (following the storm all day from more locally sourced weather forums) so what I say could repeat earlier comments.

About 22z the storm underwent rapid transition just before a 23z landfall at Atlantic City NJ. Central pressures fell to about 937 mbs before landfall and were about 950 mbs by the time the low reached the vicinity of PHL. It is now over northeast PA heading for Lake Ontario, gradually weakening.

The storm surges were unprecedented in the region, although Delaware Bay and the Delmarva caught a break from the landfall being to their north, things could have been worse there. From Atlantic City north, the storm surge was very powerful and I fear that in the morning (local time) scenes of more extensive damage and human casualty may come to light since most of the media were located in various larger towns so all we've heard in detail so far comes from their immediate surroundings -- that was in itself bad enough. The zone between Atlantic City and Asbury Park NJ may have had a mega-disaster, I hope not, but some scattered reports have been coming in to suggest water rescues from people stranded on housetops, floating houses washed away, etc. Similar comments may apply to parts of Long Island further out from NYC. Quite honestly, at this point, the death toll could be anywhere from 50 to 5,000 -- and I can't really give you a reliable estimate. So be prepared to hear of much worse impacts than the first round of coverage has suggested.

As to this being part of ongoing climate change, maybe, maybe not -- it has to be remembered that a worse impact storm occurred in September 1938, only the track was from the south across central Long Island. The effects of that were worse to the east of its track. There were also some very severe hurricane impacts on New England and New York, New Jersey in colonial times. This may actually be related more to teleconnection parameters than AGW type climate change, I was thinking today that perhaps a small fraction of the storm's intensity could be related to human activity but there is really no way to prove or disprove what (if any) percentage that is. Recall also that there was a similar odd snowstorm with the November 1950 deep low of non-tropical origins that followed a similar track.

People were adequately warned of the storm surge dangers, but in some cases chose to "ride it out" -- this comes about for different reasons. Some can't afford to go anywhere else. Some feel the storm will underperform because others did, or because they distrust the authorities. Some aren't overly bright (not being overly critical here, the population is not all college educated folk with triple digit IQs, if they were, the mean IQ would be 130 or something). Some fear looting and prefer to stick around to guard their possessions (which would only be relevant if they were on the upper storey). Some might have been too engrossed in their lives, not everyone follows the news. The term "mandatory evacuation" is a relative term, you can only force people to evacuate by forceful means.

Meanwhile, the wind also did considerable damage although this was not the strongest wind event imaginable. Gusts frequently reached 80 mph in NYC and northern NJ, Long Island, and this both exacerbated the storm surge and brought down many trees, branches, and therefore electricity poles and wires. Some building damage was reported, and construction cranes in NYC were shown to be broken and dangling precariously at about the 50th floor levels of construction sites. Many fires started when transformers blew out, and despite rain and floods, people had property fires to fight with little chance of getting help. The assistance numbers (911 over here) were jammed with nuisance non-emergency calls (this always happens, once again, see comments above about not everyone being all that bright). Some fire departments had more on their hands at the fire stations than anywhere else, as storm surges flooded them out. There are reports of some subway stations flooded and in general New York City is likely to be cleaning up from this for a week or two. Things will just gradually come back on line, the situation is probably not all that bad for some people away from wind damage and flood zones. Power will likely be restored in stages over about a week but not everyone has lost power.

The situation in Boston is relatively normal and for Washington DC, a nasty day ahead of driving rain and strong cold winds, but generally manageable. Philadelphia will be closer to that than to the NYC situation, but a bit of both. Atlantic City NJ has a lot of flood water to remove, nature won't take all of it back out to sea. But huge and possibly major recovery operations may be necessary in other parts of New Jersey and Long Island. Parts of the CT coast are also badly impacted.

Inland, some major impacts are just developing now with the mountain snowstorm and some heavier rains well inland as the system backs up and moves north. The weather for coastal recovery efforts will not be all that great with continued strong winds from the south in the 30-50 mph range, and showers or squalls at times, feeling cold at 10 C.

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Nuclear plant declares "alert" after Sandy storm surge

Exelon Corp declares alert at New Jersey Oyster Creek nuclear plant on storm surge

* Fire suppression system may need to be used to cool spent rods if further water rise-NRC

* Exelon says no threat to public health or safety

Exelon Corp declared an "alert" at its New Jersey Oyster Creek nuclear power plant due to a record storm surge, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said, warning that a further water rise could force the country's oldest working plant to use emergency water supplies to cool spent uranium fuel rods. The alert -- the second lowest of four NRC action levels -- came after water levels at the plant rose by more than 6.5 feet (2 meters), potentially affecting the pumps that circulate water through the plant, an NRC spokesman said late on Monday.

Those pumps are not essential since the 43-year-old plant was shut for planned refueling since Oct. 22. However, a further rise to 7 feet could submerge the service water pump motor that is used to cool the water in the spent fuel pool. Exelon said in a statement that there was no danger to equipment and no threat to public health or safety. The incident at Oyster Creek, which is about 60 miles (95 km) east of Philadelphia on the New Jersey Coast, came as Sandy made landfall as the largest Atlantic storm ever, bringing up to 90 mile per hour (mph) winds and 13-foot storm surges in the biggest test of the industry's emergency preparedness since the Fukushima disaster in Japan a year and a half ago.

Although such alerts are considered serious events in the industry -- with only about a dozen such instances in the past four years, according to NRC press releases -- flood waters should be receding at the plant following high tide, reducing the risk of emergency action.

Sandy had been expected to force the closure of at least two other nuclear plants in New Jersey, although the NRC said none of the country's other nuclear reactors had been shut by the storm. The NRC spokesman said the company could use water from a fire suppression system to cool the pool if necessary. The used uranium rods in the pool could cause the water to boil within 25 hours without additional coolant; in an extreme scenario the rods could overheat, risking the eventual release of radiation. Exelon spokesman David Tillman said the plant has "multiple and redundant" sources of cooling for the spent fuel pool. He said he did not know whether the service water system was operational at the moment.

MONITORING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Constellation Energy Nuclear Group's 630-MW Nine Mile Point 1 nuclear power reactor in upstate New York did shut down due to a problem putting power onto the grid, although it was not clear whether the trouble was related to the storm, the NRC spokesman said. The relatively small 636-megawatt Oyster Creek plant also experienced a "power disruption" at its switch yard, causing two backup diesel generators to kick in and maintain a stable source of power, Exelon said. Tillman said another Exelon reactor at the Limerick facility in Pennsylvania was reduced to 91 percent power after Sandy caused a problem with the condenser.

An alert-level incident means there is a "potential substantial degradation in the level of safety" at a reactor.

"Given the breadth and intensity of this historic storm, the NRC is keeping a close watch on all of the nuclear power plants that could be impacted," NRC Chairman Allison Macfarlane said.

The concerns over the status of the spent fuel pool at Oyster Creek was reminiscent of the fears that followed the Fukushima disaster last year, when helicopters and fire hoses were enlisted to ensure the pools remained filled with fresh, cool water. The nuclear industry has said that the spent fuel rods at Fukushima were never exposed to the air.Nuclear plants must store the spent uranium fuel rods for at least five years in order to cool them sufficiently before they can be moved to dry cask storage containers.

The plant uses pumps to take in external water that circulates through a heat exchanger used to cool the internal water that surrounds the rods, keeping them from overheating

http://uk.reuters.co...E8LU1S120121030

http://youtu.be/QWY9U23Dx5I

http://youtu.be/YeutC1WN6dc

Edited by Coast
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Amongst the tragic losses of life, two from the tall ship HMS Bounty which had to be evacuated by helicopter

One of the world's most picturesque paeans to sailing nostalgia was claimed by the sea as giant waves off the Carolinas sunk HMS Bounty, a replica tall ship which was built for the 1962 film Mutiny On The Bounty and, more recently, took a supporting role in Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. The US Coast Guard rescued 14 of the 16 crew by helicopter after receiving an emergency call late on Sunday saying the owners had lost contact with the vessel. They then received a distress signal from the captain, who said Bounty was taking on water at a rate of 2ft per hour because power had been lost, putting its bilge pumps out of action.

The overnight operation began with the deployment of a Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft to search for the ship. At about 4.30am, the captain determined that Bounty was sinking and ordered all on board to abandon ship. Fourteen survivors were plucked from lifeboats before dawn amid 18ft waves. The Coast Guard was searching for the two missing crew members last night. The ship had left Connecticut and was bound for Florida when Sandy blew up in the Caribbean and moved north. "They were staying in constant contact with the National Hurricane Centre," said Tracie Simons, of the HMS Bounty Organisation. "They were trying to make it around the storm."

The original HMS Bounty, built in 1789, was deployed by the Royal Navy on a supply mission to the South Pacific when a crewman, Fletcher Christian, led one of the most famous mutinies in nautical history against the captain, William Bligh, as the ship sailed from Tahiti for the West Indies with a cargo of breadfruit. After Bligh and those loyal to him were allowed to escape in a longboat, Christian and his followers ended up landing on Pitcairn Island in the South Pacific, where they burned the ship and settled. The replica was built to the original plans but was a third larger to accommodate more passengers and modern navigation equipment.

There was no word last night on the condition of the 14 who survived the sinking. According to reports, the crew posted a message on the ship's website yesterday about their concern as the storm approached. "This will be a tough voyage for the Bounty," it said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/two-lost-as-storm-sinks-replica-tall-ship-hms-bounty-8231132.html

http://youtu.be/uCUcT-yPYwE

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this storm is quite close to be a hypercane, because the storm system is actually is so massive. If the storm headed towards us we be screwed and quite possibly bring down our ecomony to 2008 levels.

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If the storm headed towards us we be screwed and quite possibly bring down our ecomony to 2008 levels.

I think that it is quite unlikely to have anything like that strength if it did managed to head to us, given current storm data and the fact it is now largely going to be over land:

Hurricane SANDY: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 93 hours lead

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Hurricane SANDY: Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

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http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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Posted Image

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Without trying to sound blase about the situation, it is probably the closest NYC has come to "The Day After Tommorow" scenario regarding the level of flooding. Just extraordinary

Does anyone have info about the level of inland snowfall?.

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ECMWF had the track of this storm nailed at 7 days ago - here is the T+168 charts from the 00z run last Tuesday, when Sandy hadn't even developed.

post-1052-0-90028500-1351588755_thumb.gi

Pretty impressive given the difficulty of modelling hurricane tracks. GFS on the other hand took a lot longer to home in on the likely track.

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Amongst the tragic losses of life, two from the tall ship HMS Bounty which had to be evacuated by helicopter

http://www.independe...ty-8231132.html

http-~~-//youtu.be/uCUcT-yPYwE

As I mentioned yesterday I find it difficult to understand why they continued on the course they did knowing the forecast.

http://www.tallshipbounty.org/

post-12275-0-46292600-1351589248_thumb.j

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Without trying to sound blase about the situation, it is probably the closest NYC has come to "The Day After Tommorow" scenario regarding the level of flooding. Just extraordinary

Does anyone have info about the level of inland snowfall?.

Reports on sky news of 18inc of snow dumped in in few hrs North of Charleston amazing.
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this storm is quite close to be a hypercane, because the storm system is actually is so massive. If the storm headed towards us we be screwed and quite possibly bring down our ecomony to 2008 levels.

sorry, it's not close to becoming a hypercane...far from it...A hypthetical 'Hypercane' by definition has a central pressure of 500mb, with wind speeds approaching the speed of sound, and would be around 30-50 miles in diameter....This type of storm, if indeed it's ever occurred during the history of Earth could only be caused by a 2 things, firstly a major under sea volcanic eruption, or secondly a large asteroid or comet oceanic impact as the body of ocean in the vicinity of the catastrophe would have to be heated to 80C for the hypercane to form
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As I mentioned yesterday I find it difficult to understand why they continued on the course they did knowing the forecast.

http://www.tallshipbounty.org/

Yes totally agree, the track and timing have been pretty certainty for several days, yet the ship failed to try and make its way to a safe harbour.

It seems almost criminally negligent of the captain or owners.... we know that the seas were 30m or so around there so roughly the size of the ship and frankly it didnt stand a chance.

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Reports on sky news of 18inc of snow dumped in in few hrs North of Charleston amazing.

Not surprising.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

505 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...FIRST WINTER STORM IS A BLIZZARD FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...

.THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE SANDY HAVE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL

LOW TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS

COUNTIES.

WVZ035>038-046-047-301715-

/O.CON.KRLX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121031T2000Z/

RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...

MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...

MARLINTON...ELKINS

505 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH THE DEEPEST SNOWS

ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 15 INCHES IN THE LOW

TERRAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING...OR THE

WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING

COLLAPSING ROOFS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD

TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RLX.

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I will still fail to understand why people park their vehicles next to trees in storms.

Especially a Hurricane of this magnitude, surely they will know there's a slight chance the tree will collapse.

Perhaps thats the only place they can park them ? Cars are replaceable, lives are not.

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It will take 14 hours to four days to get out the water that has flooded the subway tunnels in New York, Metro Transit Authority spokesman Kevin Ortiz said.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2Am8k3Fd8

This is a historic weather event unfurling with New York Metro tunnels beginning to flood and likely to cause the most devastation in their 108 year history and now huge amounts of snow being dumped on West Virginia and the Appalachian mountains:

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Snow plows were out in parts of the southern Appalachian mountains Monday, preparing for as much as 3 feet of snow in higher elevations spawned by the merger of a winter storm with Hurricane Sandy.

http://www.oregonliv..._plows_app.html

Edited by Coast
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