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Officially the deepest intensity of a Hurricane ever, according to Paul's storm chaser link.

Ocean City going under water too, yikes.

Storm surge also expected to be worse than previously suggested, I just hope that is purely hype but it may well not be the case. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Possibly don't want to cause mass panic, Snow Joke.

complacency is what's killed people in the past, the NHC are effectively mis-labelling the storm for a PR-Stunt if the case of 'not wanting to cause panic' is the reason. A CAT2 Hurricane is so when all the data and collected readings say so, fiddling with numbers isn't professional imho simply to save face.

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Apparently still getting reports that people arent going to the evacuation areas.......and authorities are concerned... everyone here put on your twitter feed or facebook feeds to spread the word for anyone they know over there ""if they are asked to evacuate do so without delay"!

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It seems all of the hype about this being a monster storm may have been worth it. I just really hope people listen to the authorities and get out. Not just for their sake, but for the sake of the people who may have to come and save them.

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Intensifying Sandy, no official hurricane watches / warnings, i find bizarre

Since the storm has accelerated, and the inner core is re-established, it will probably make landfall as a warm core hurricane

look at this

http://goes.gsfc.nas..._lrg/latest.jpg

For some unusual reason I suspect these experienced forecasters know more than I do. Their latest Public Advisory.

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL

HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W

ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF

THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...

THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS

OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY

AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO

MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND

SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN

ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR

THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. SANDY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE

SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A

FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF

THE SYSTEM...AND...IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE

DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING

INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...

MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO

TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG

THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND

EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND

DELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53

MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...HAS RECENTLY

OCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE-FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY

OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH

CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY THIS EVENING. WINDS

AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE

AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE

FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING

DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH

TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS

BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT

MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE

AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...

ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER

SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION

SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR

NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH

WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF

SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES

OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE

BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH

NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited by knocker
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Re cat 1 or 2

Nhc have admitted in their latest update that surface winds of 80-83 kts have been recorded since 83 is cat 2 . It should be raised IMHO.

Particularly since the strongest section of the storm is only Foown over twice and is maybe 50 mile or so across they almost certainly haven't found the strongest winds.

So in reality we have a strengthening cat 2 baring down as the strongest storm in recorded history against the most densely populated area of the worlds super power......

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complacency is what's killed people in the past, the NHC are effectively mis-labelling the storm for a PR-Stunt if the case of 'not wanting to cause panic' is the reason. A CAT2 Hurricane is so when all the data and collected readings say so, fiddling with numbers isn't professional imho simply to save face.

Franly I find that a tad ridiculous.

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Staying on topic here instead of picking arguments, the storm chasers are on the move again, should anyone be interested. The commentator is constantly updating folk with regard to the latest news. Posted Image

http://www.ustream.t.../chasercam-live

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Franly I find that a tad ridiculous.

I find not issuing Hurricane Watches (based on the model assumption that Sandy will be 'subtropical' upon landfall) more ridiculous. We've had Hurricane Watches in the past from Bermuda to FL despite the systems being hundreds of miles away and moving in complete opposite direction from the Watch.

It's been said for the past few years that the NHC needs a revamp on the way it issues warnings/watches/projections. Even before the days of Katrina. Perhaps now is a time for a independent body to be setup for competition against the state-sponsored NHC.

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I find not issuing Hurricane Watches (based on the model assumption that Sandy will be 'subtropical' upon landfall) more ridiculous. We've had Hurricane Watches in the past from Bermuda to FL despite the systems being hundreds of miles away and moving in complete opposite direction from the Watch.

It's been said for the past few years that the NHC needs a revamp on the way it issues warnings/watches/projections. Even before the days of Katrina. Perhaps now is a time for a independent body to be setup for competition against the state-sponsored NHC.

No, my thinking was that if they are now planning for Zone B evacuation, then they will want it to be orderly. The authorities will need to have everything in place ready. I'm not suggesting that the public are being misinformed at all. If the information isn't conveyed at an appropriate time an evacuation could turn into a stampeed. In a similar way, the Met Police kept spouting the "Power surges" line until the London Underground was completely evacuated on 7/7. A short delay and some carefully managed information can stop panic and save lives.

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