Hurricane Sandy

[knocker]

The latest NAM run has it mainly skirting the eastern seaboard.

Edited October 26, 2012 by knocker

[Somerset Squall]

Sandy's convection has been sheared well north of the expanding centre of circulation. Sandy is barely a hurricane (winds are now at 65kts), and will likely continue to lose tropical characteristics over the next few days, but will probably deepen in the process.

Sandy has killed 42 people in the Caribbean, and I fear that toll may yet increase.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Gael_Force]

A very good blog outlining the impacts likely.

http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/26/dont-panic-but-prepare-sandy-looks-like-the-real-deal/

According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0.

[toggerob]

A 'hybridcane' I believe the US media have labelled Sandy as, CAT1 right up to landfall and as we all know packing a punch in terms of barometric pressure, windfield as a whole, and the surge. Recent modelled heights are excacerbated by exceptional high seasonal tides next week, those along the Potomac and southern areas of NYC could feel the full force of that surge.

ECMWF puts Sandy's pressure at a record low of 922mb, more realistically the NHC is looking anywhere between 930mb to 940mb. And once it makes landfall the storm is going to be hanging around a few days thereafter due to influential effects on blocking from the north.

Latest oceanic height estimates

[Staffordshire]

But prdoucing snow for WV's mountains! 2-3ft even

[knocker]

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

SANDY IS SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID CYCLONE THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW.

HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE

GRADIENTS...AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN BANDS TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM NEAR 2000

UTC INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD A DEEP WARM CORE.

DROPSONDES AND SFMR DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE

CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONGER WINDS

WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. AN

INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THAT THE

STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CONVECTION AT FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY

LESS THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE INITIAL

MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 010/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK

FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH

MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN

NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THIS MOTION

SHOULD PERSIST FOR 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME

EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND

WEST-NORTHWEST...TOWARD AND OVER THE U.S. COAST. THE TRACK

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST 48

HR...AND THE FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THERE

WAS LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE LANDFALL AREA AND TIME

IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...VERY

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF

THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL

CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. SHORTWAVE

TROUGH WILL CAUSE SANDY TO RE-INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO

BAROCLININC ENERGY PROCESSES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SANDY

REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE

WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THIS HAPPENS...AND

WHEN THIS PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE

EXACT STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND

POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM

THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[tinybill]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/slow-moving-hurricane-sandy-marches-toward-u-east-052553857.html

looks fun !!!

[Iceberg]

Not had time to post but been keeping an eye on is one.

There is very good/almost complete model agreement on sandy having a warm core but with a baroclonic wind field as it moves ashore approx 100 miles south of NYC or 50 miles south of Philly.

It has to be said that 100 miles is neither here nor there for this kind of storm as the strongest winds will be 40-50 miles from the centre and the centre could be 50 miles north or south very easily.

Rainfall looks a probably with the Nhc forecasting upto 13 inches for some from this storm, which at this time of year will hang around.

The strongest winds will be from the baroclonic influence and since this hasn't happen yet there is still a degree of I

Uncertainty and dooming devestation can't be alled until probably Sunday IMHO.

Anyway a vicious storm of at least 950mb looks a certainty with the models probably at 940 on avg.

Gl ne us.

[Coast]

There is very good/almost complete model agreement on sandy having a warm core but with a baroclonic wind field as it moves ashore approx 100 miles south of NYC or 50 miles south of Philly.

Been looking at that this morning:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/sandy18l/fcst/archive/12102700/9.html

Models are in some agreement about direction, which is not good:

[Iceberg]

Sorry for my English can't kick the kids of the laptop so had to post on my iPhone. Blody kids

[Coast]

Slow-moving Hurricane Sandy heads toward East Coast

Hurricane Sandy pulled away from the Bahamas on Saturday after killing at least 41 people in the Caribbean, beginning a slow march toward the U.S. East Coast where it threatens to hit as one of the worst storms in decades. The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast models show it will have all the ingredients to morph into a massive and potentially catastrophic "super storm."

Governors in states along the U.S. East Coast declared states of emergency on Friday, and officials urged residents to stock up on food, water and batteries in the event the storm develops as forecast. The U.S. Navy ordered all ships in the Norfolk, Virginia, area, including a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, out to sea to ride out the approaching storm. "We're expecting a large, large storm," said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Center for Environmental Prediction. "The circulation of this storm as it approaches the coast could cover about the eastern third of the United States."

Sandy, a Category 1 hurricane, battered the Bahamas southeast of Florida on Friday. The storm was expected to crawl northward on Saturday and Sunday and then turn toward the U.S. coast. On its current projected track, Sandy could make landfall on Monday night or Tuesday somewhere between North Carolina and southern New England, forecasters said. The storm packs the potential to cause widespread power outages and unleash flooding and even dump snow as far inland as West Virginia. It also threatens to disrupt air travel all along the U.S. East Coast. Early Saturday morning, Sandy was about 375 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, packing sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km per hour). It was moving slowly over the Atlantic at 7 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Sandy was forecast to weaken to a tropical storm before strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane over open water on Sunday. The storm, coming in the final weeks before the U.S. presidential election on November 6, was presenting a challenge to the campaigns of U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Romney canceled a rally scheduled for Sunday evening in Virginia Beach, Virginia. President Barack Obama's re-election campaign announced that Vice President Joe Biden also canceled a Saturday trip to Virginia Beach. Ahead of the election, millions of Americans are taking advantage of early voting arrangements to cast their ballots. State officials said they had put in place contingency plans in case Sandy caused extended power outages or other problems that could disrupt voting.

In New York City, officials were considering shutting down the country's largest mass transit system, worried the storm's impact could cause flooding or high winds that would endanger subways and buses. Much of Florida's northeast coast was under a tropical storm warning and storm watches extended up the coast through South Carolina. Along North Carolina's Outer Banks, which jut out into the Atlantic, vacationers in large camper trailers and motor homes streamed off the barrier islands. Many forecasters are warning that Sandy could be more destructive than last year's Hurricane Irene, which caused billions of dollars in damage across the U.S. Northeast.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-storm-sandy-hurricane-idUSBRE89N16J20121027

[Coast]

[Sainsbo]

Sandy has just been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but I doubt that will be for too long.

[Coast]

Well the Yanks are ramping it up now, but is with good reason?

Approaching Megastorm Threatens East Coast

Douglas Jumper choked up as he described the long, slow recovery in his central Pennsylvania town from last year's historic flooding caused by Hurricane Irene and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee — and contemplated the possibility of yet more damage from an approaching storm. "I'm tired. I am tired," Jumper, who turned 58 on Saturday, said through tears. "We don't need this again."

Jumper's town of Bloomsburg, and much of the Eastern Seaboard, was in the path of a rare behemoth storm barreling north from the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Sandy was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm that could bring nearly a foot of rain, high winds and up to 2 feet of snow. Experts said the storm could be wider and stronger than Irene, which caused more than $15 billion in damage, and could rival the worst East Coast storm on record.

Jumper's first floor took on nearly 5 feet of water last year, and he was busy Friday moving items from his wood shop to higher ground. Across the street, Patrick and Heather Peters pulled into the driveway with a kerosene heater, 12 gallons of water, paper plates, batteries, flashlights and the last lantern on Wal-Mart's shelf. "I'm not screwing around this time," Heather Peters said.

Up and down the coast, people were cautioned to be prepared for days without electricity. Jersey Shore beach towns began issuing voluntary evacuations and protecting boardwalks. Atlantic City casinos made contingency plans to close, and officials advised residents of flood-prone areas to stay with family or be ready to leave. Several governors declared states of emergency. Airlines said to expect cancellations and waived change fees for passengers who want to reschedule. "Be forewarned," Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. "Assume that you will be in the midst of flooding conditions, the likes of which you may not have seen at any of the major storms that have occurred over the last 30 years."

At a Home Depot in Freeport, on New York's Long Island, Bob Notheis bought sawhorses to put his furniture on inside his home. "I'm just worried about how bad it's going to be with the tidal surge," he said. "Irene was kind of rough on me and I'm just trying to prepare." After Irene left millions without power, utilities were taking no chances and were lining up extra crews and tree-trimmers. Wind threatened to topple power lines, and trees that still have leaves could be weighed down by snow and fall over if the weight becomes too much. New York City began precautions for an ominous but still uncertain forecast. No decision had been made on whether any of the city's public transportation outlets would be shut, despite predictions that a sudden shift of the storm's path could cause a surge of 3 to 6 feet in the subways.

The subway system was completely shuttered during Irene, the first such shutdown ever for weather-related reasons. Irene largely missed the city, but struck other areas hard. In upstate New York, Richard Ball was plucking carrots, potatoes, beets and other crops from the ground as quickly as possible Friday. Ball was still shaky from Irene, which scoured away soil, ruined crops and killed livestock. Farmers were moving tractors and other equipment to high ground, and some families pondered moving furniture to upper stories in their homes."The fear we have a similar recipe to Irene has really intensified anxieties in town," Ball said.

The storm loomed a little more than a week before Election Day, while several states were heavily involved in campaigning, canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Vice President Joe Biden both canceled weekend campaign events in coastal Virginia Beach, Va., though their events in other parts of the states were going on as planned. In Rhode Island, politicians asked supporters to take down yard signs for fear they might turn into projectiles in the storm. Sandy, which the National Weather Service was calling a "very large tropical cyclone" early Saturday, killed more than 40 people in the Caribbean, wrecked homes and knocked down trees and power lines.

Early Saturday, the storm was about 155 miles (250 kilometers) north of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 350 miles (565 kilometers) south-southeast of Charleston, S.C. Its sustained wind speed dropped below 70 mph (110 kph), which downgraded the storm from hurricane strength. Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of Florida's East Coast, along with parts of coastal North and South Carolina and the Bahamas. Tropical storm watches were issued for coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina, along with parts of Florida and Bermuda.

Sandy was projected to hit the Atlantic Coast early Tuesday. As it turns back to the north and northwest and merges with colder air from a winter system, West Virginia and further west into eastern Ohio and southern Pennsylvania are expected to get snow. Forecasters were looking at the Delaware shore as the spot the storm will turn inland, bringing 10 inches of rain and extreme storm surges, said Louis Uccellini, environmental prediction director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Up to 2 feet of snow was predicted to fall on West Virginia, with lighter snow in parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. A wide swath of the East, measuring several hundreds of miles, will get persistent gale-force 50 mph winds, with some areas closer to storm landfall getting closer to 70 mph, said James Franklin, forecast chief for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It's going to be a long-lasting event, two to three days of impact for a lot of people," Franklin said. "Wind damage, widespread power outages, heavy rainfall, inland flooding and somebody is going to get a significant surge event." Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground, said this could be as big, perhaps bigger, than the worst East Coast storm on record, a 1938 New England hurricane that is sometimes known as the Long Island Express, which killed nearly 800 people. Nonetheless, some residents were still shrugging off the impending storm.

On North Carolina's Outer Banks, Marilyn McCluster made the four-hour drive from her home in Chase City, Va., to her family's beach house in Nags Head anticipating a relaxing weekend by the shore. "It's just wind and rain; I'm hoping that's it," she said Friday as she filled her SUV at the Duck Thru, a gas station. Inside the station, clerks had a busy day, with daytime sales bringing in about 75 percent of the revenue typically seen during the mid-summer tourist high season, said Jamicthon Howard, 56, of Manteo. Gasoline demand came from tourists leaving Hatteras Island to the south to avoid being stranded if low-lying NC Highway 12 is buried under saltwater and sand as often happens during storms, Howard said, but also locals making sure they're ready for anything. "They're preparing for lockdown or to make a move," Howard said.

No evacuations had been ordered and ferries hadn't yet been closed. Plenty of stores remained open and houses still featured Halloween decorations outside, as rain started to roll in. "I'll never evacuate again," said Lori Hilby, manager of a natural foods market in Duck, who left her home before Hurricane Irene struck last August. "... Whenever I evacuate, I always end up somewhere and they lose power and my house is fine. So I'm always wishing I was home."

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/approaching-megastorm-threatens-east-coast-17577853#.UIuva2_R68B

http://youtu.be/JCmSQgoSOso

[Iceberg]

I wouldnt ramp it up yet, althought i dont blame the yanks in doing that. The models will be a very good guide as to what *might* happen and are probably the best guide we have however this will be a massive complex system, it will be interacting with a front 500 miles long, with tropical winds already extending 400+ miles and the warm core and central precip 20 and 40 miles atm.

The models are generally got her initialised at 970mb without much change for 24 hrs, NHC only 3 hrs ago had the pressure at 970mb, however recent recon below have measured a central pressure confirmed by vortex drop as 961mb which is a massive massive difference.

This could yet be a damp squid or be a total 1 in 100 year monster. The next 24 hrs should be interesting as it will confirm whether the core starts to get its act together as the shear lessens....

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 27/10:27:20Z

B. 28 deg 47 min N

076 deg 40 min W

C. NA

D. 58 kt

E. 313 deg 35 nm

F. 026 deg 53 kt

G. 314 deg 38 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 9 C / 3657 m

J. 12 C / 3622 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. SPIRAL BANDING

M. NA

N. 12345 / NA

O. 1 / 1

P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 13

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 10:18:12Z

SST 27.2 IN CENTER FROM AXBT

SONDE SPLASH WITH 6 KTS WIND

[Sainsbo]

Sandy's been upgraded back up to a Hurricane. Could be interesting to watch this. Are there any cams around NY or surrounding areas that will be interesting to look at when this thing hits?

[peterf]

anyone have a link to US radio or tv channels?

[Iceberg]

Yep back to hurricane based on this vortex which only came out about 15 mins ago.

pressure of 957mb and flight winds of 91kts in the sw which is normally the weakest part of a hurricane.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 27/11:50:30Z

B. 28 deg 46 min N

076 deg 48 min W

C. 850 mb 1055 m

D. 67 kt

E. 223 deg 70 nm

F. 315 deg 91 kt

G. 225 deg 93 nm

H. 957 mb

I. 14 C / 1523 m

J. 23 C / 1523 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 05

MAX FL WIND 91 KT SW QUAD 11:19:30Z

[Iceberg]

a 9C difference between inside and outside the eye, thats huge. Its normally a very good indication of central warm core strength and is (i believe a bigger difference than any storm we have seen in the atlantic this season so far which means that the core is in very good shape indeed....

[Iceberg]

06Z GFS has come out and is predicting the eye to pass approx 10miles to south of NYC as a 930mb storm landfall is t66 from the 06Z.

GFDL keeps it down south but doesnt predict a pressure of 957mb for another 48 hrs so is hopelessly out.

HWRF 06Z pushes it just north of long island with a pressure in the 920's mb...

[knocker]

For the same time frame the NAM has it here. They are struggling a bit on the central pressure. Not surprising as it's a very complex scenario.

Edited October 27, 2012 by knocker

[gottolovethisweather]

06Z GFS has come out and is predicting the eye to pass approx 10miles to south of NYC as a 930mb storm landfall is t66 from the 06Z.

GFDL keeps it down south but doesnt predict a pressure of 957mb for another 48 hrs so is hopelessly out.

HWRF 06Z pushes it just north of long island with a pressure in the 920's mb...

Holy poo.

Air Pressure readings aren't everything but that is still pretty phenomenal if it were to occur.

[philglossop]

Just seen a report of pressure at 957mb. Looking more likely that Sandy will the Hurricane of 2012 that could do the most damage to the North East of America. If she continues to bomb like some predictions it's not going to be pretty on that East coast.

[Dorsetbred]

Webcams on NYC to the ready...

[philglossop]

Actually just looked at the GFS and hopefully someone can confirm what I'm seeing, in that the High Pressure south of Greenland and into Canada which so many winter lovers on here look for, is going to cause it to curve in towards New England? If I've read that correctly its a case of be careful of what you wish for? Good for the winter rampers on this forum, extremely bad for US?