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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Gaemi

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Another tropical storm has formed in the West Pacific. It has formed, however, in an area which has seen a lack of activity so far. Tropical Storm Gaemi is located 300 miles south of Hong Kong, in the South China Sea. Sustained winds are 35kts, and Gaemi has a small LLC with deep convection associated with it. Gaemi is trapped in a weak steering environment, and is forecast to drift very slowly northwards over the next day or so, followed by a faster westward track as ridging builds in to the north. This will send Gaemi towards Vietnam. Slow strengthening is expected as shear remains light and waters warm over the coming days.

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Gaemi has steadily strengthened to 45kts. The storm has moves southeastwards through the day, instead of to the north. Ridging is still expected to build over China, which will enforce a westward turn soon. Vietnam need to prepare for Gaemi, as the storm is expected to become a typhoon prior to landfall.

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Gaemi has not moved much today, and reached an intensity of 55kts this afternoon. Since, Gaemi has weakened slightly to 50kts. The reason for this is probably a little upwelling due to the slow or quasi-stationary motion over the last 24hrs. Modeate shear of 15kts may have also had a role. The long anticipated westward turn should commence tomorrow as ridging builds north of Gaemi. Gaemi should strengthen as it moves westwards and could still become a low end typhoon prior to landfall in central Vietnam.

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Gaemi still hasn't moved a great deal and is still located in the eastern South China sea, just west of the Philippines. Shear has caused Gaemi to weaken to 35kts today- minimal tropical storm strength. Convection is to the west of the circulation centre, which is clear to view on satellite due to it's exposure from the convection. Gaemi has started the westward turn, albeit slowly. The track speed should increase tomorrow as the subtropical ridge to the north continues to strengthen. Gaemi should re-intensify a little as it heads westwards towards Vietnam, but the storm is no longer forecast to become a typhoon.

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Gaemi has crossed the south china sea and is hours away from landfall on the coast of Vietnam. Intensity has increased slightly to 40kts, and the LLC is no longer fully exposed from the convection. Shear hasn't eased as such, but Gaemi's quick west-southwestward motion has lessened the impact of the easterly shear over the last 6 hours. Heavy rains are already spreading inland ahead of the LLC already.

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