October Month Ahead Forecasts

[Gavin P]

Hello all,

Please check out my latest, model based month ahead forecast video for October - http://www.gavsweath...om/monthly.html

After several months of disappointing forecasts using the BCC model, I've reverted back to CFS for this month.

You can also read Terry Scholey's October forecast here: http://www.gavsweath...rryscholey.html

Here's the first part;

October 2012 - final update.

October will be a month of changes,

with brief touches of "Indian Summer" possible in the east and south. Shades of

winter could also occur though, mostly over Scotland but probably more widely

towards month end that could bring snow to some parts and the first major frosts

of the coming winter.

Three weather types should prevail. Mild, moist

winds from the south or south-west bringing wet and windy weather, interspersed

by brief colder north westerlies giving brighter intervals. Quieter spells could

come from between east and south bringing a mixture of dull, misty weather and

intervals of warm, hazy sunshine. And finally, much colder northerlies

particularly towards month end.

Colder snaps could be significant

particularly later in the month, although any beforehand should be short-lived.

Timing of events should be within a couple of days, with confidence for the

first half of the month rated as medium to high, as it generally falls in the

line with that issued a fortnight ago.

The third week of October seems

to be the most difficult to predict and there could be timing errors during the

final week, but I will "firm up" on this in the mid-October to mid-November

prediction....

For the rest, please click here: http://www.gavsweath...rryscholey.html

As always, many thanks

Edited October 1, 2012 by Gavin P