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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Statistics from the past are nice, but you can only use it to look into the past, it doesnt always really give you an objective view. Past results do not offer any future guarantees. If ya had a thousand years of data, it would be a different story.

Just keep in mind what Albert Einstein said: Imagination is more important than knowledge.

And especially this is one to give a thought: Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.

Edited by iceicebaby
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Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

    It looks like the polar vortex is reforming at higher levels as indicated by the mean zonal winds on the ECM at T+0:

    http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=a12&var=u&lng=eng

    And:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_JFM_NH_2013.gif

    Higher stratosphere is currently colder than average and the opposite is true for the lower stratosphere, with the recent warming downwelling:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif

    I know it is far in the future and at a less reliable level but a ridge is shown to build at 100 hPa on the ECM (T+240) :

    http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=100&forecast=f240&lng=eng

    The GFS supported the idea until T+204:

    http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=e715497de74cb61e04244e54cfe63354

    But the pattern seems to flatten out after this. Wishful thinking...

    Anyway guys, your contributions have been invaluable to increase our understanding of the phenomena.

    Thank you very much!

    Stephane

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Just one thing to consider: If I actually manage to make these climatologies, it would probably be quite a few graphics. And I dont really have a way to host these graphics. And just keeping them on my computer is basically nonsense. So I would like to know if there would be a way that these graphics would be hosted here on Netweather, having a page of their own? Of course I have to make the graphics first, but I have to ask in advance. Posted Image Basically the only really useful climatologies are the ones on the http://raleighwx.ame...wx.com/MJO.html site. So Netweather would basically then be the only site to have updated climatologies, with Europe maps, and different parameters. Just for consideration. Posted Image

    Best regards.

    Chiono just pointed me in the direction of this post - we'd be more than happy to host for you and setup a viewer etc - I'll drop you a pm later today :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    It looks like the polar vortex is reforming at higher levels as indicated by the mean zonal winds on the ECM at T+0:

    http://wekuw.met.fu-...2&var=u&lng=eng

    And:

    http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

    Higher stratosphere is currently colder than average and the opposite is true for the lower stratosphere, with the recent warming downwelling:

    http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

    I know it is far in the future and at a less reliable level but a ridge is shown to build at 100 hPa on the ECM (T+240) :

    http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

    The GFS supported the idea until T+204:

    http://www.netweathe...4244e54cfe63354

    But the pattern seems to flatten out after this. Wishful thinking...

    Anyway guys, your contributions have been invaluable to increase our understanding of the phenomena.

    Thank you very much!

    Stephane

    Yes and thats also very evident looking at the temperature profile through some of the various layers:

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Fortunately, at the 70mb level, things are only just starting to recover towards normal:

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Given the likely lag time down to 100mb, the next two weeks still look likely to have a rather weak and disoriented PV, giving plenty of opportunity for colder weather around the mid-latitudes. I'm not so confident that this will continue through to the second half of February at this stage, and we will have to keep an eye on the temperature profiles over the next week or so (bearing in mind across the tropics we are still at record lows at 70mb) to see how quickly these recover towards the normal. If in around 7-10 days time we are still seeing a reduced thermal gradient at the 70mb level, then the prospects for the second half of February in terms of a distorted polar vortex may look slightly better.

    Of course given the feint promise of more Scandinavian based height rises, we should bear in mind that the polar vortex need not necessarily be all that weak for this to continue, and so should we get such an HP system in place by the middle of the month, even a reformation across the pole of the PV might not affect this, assuming we can get that euro trough to slide down to the south of us.

    SK

    Edited by snowking
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Chiono just pointed me in the direction of this post - we'd be more than happy to host for you and setup a viewer etc - I'll drop you a pm later today Posted Image

    Not wanting to hijack the thread or anything, but as an addition to this, we do have a community fund setup for projects etc - so anyone with ideas for something which may need some hosting, computing power or whatever please shout..

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75266-netweather-community-fund/

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Thanks SK: the fact that the PV has already been disrupted is enough to displace surface HP and LP from their usual positions.

    All clear.

    FSP

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    .

    I really have to develop a "fixated" methodology before I start. I was thinking of using phases with amplitude above 0.85. And for the ENSO years separation, the neutral period being MEI from 0.5 to -0.5.

    Yes, I used >1.27 amplitude simply because that was the long term average (of all phases) and originally 0.5 to -0.5 but relaxed it to 0.6/-0.6 to get three more samples Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Posted Image

    Slightly beside the point, but wow, what's up with the tropical stratosphere? Breaking a record by 1c might not seem hugely significant, but when the range is only ~7c it's a huge margin really. Is there any explanation as to why it's been persistently below average and what effect might this have for the mid-high latitudes?
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Slightly beside the point, but wow, what's up with the tropical stratosphere? Breaking a record by 1c might not seem hugely significant, but when the range is only ~7c it's a huge margin really. Is there any explanation as to why it's been persistently below average and what effect might this have for the mid-high latitudes?

    The best guess I could offer is the very active BDC we have seen this season, initially transporting a lot of ozone down to Antarctica and giving them a record breaking SSW, followed by the equally as impressive one experienced in the northern hemisphere a few months later. This has left little time for ozone to amalgamate around the tropics before being transported away and, consequently, we see far less warming than usual around the tropical stratosphere

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    The best guess I could offer is the very active BDC we have seen this season, initially transporting a lot of ozone down to Antarctica and giving them a record breaking SSW, followed by the equally as impressive one experienced in the northern hemisphere a few months later. This has left little time for ozone to amalgamate around the tropics before being transported away and, consequently, we see far less warming than usual around the tropical stratosphere

    SK

    The tropical stratosphere always rebounds with cooling when a polar warming event occurs. I think the BDC is only partly responsible though, the rest of the cooling will arise due to the mechanisms involved with the SSW - almost like the colder stratospheric polar air is displaced south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    Any suggestions before I start?

    Best regards.

    Recretos

    I have long wanted to do this for the GWO, but sadly not had the time.

    I would strongly advocate that if you want to do this, look at the GWO rather than the MJO. The GWO is a better, more refined measure of both the tropics and extratropics' influence on the general circulation. The data set goes back to 1958 and the MJO has been done to a degree by Allan Huffman.

    The best way of structuring it (from an operational perspective) would be:

    - Phase space (all magnitudes) by month, 500 hPa GPH anomaly and mean, T 850 hPa anomaly.

    - Phase space (for magnitudes > 1SD) by month, 500 hPa GPH anomaly and mean, T 850 hPa anomaly.

    - Sifted by ENSO signal <1 >1 SD (perhaps take MEI as the measure data set?)

    If you could do this, and Paul could host it, I'm sure we would have a tool that would be of great interest to a global met community.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    @ recretos.

    Furthermore to GP's post - and I agree with him regarding GWO anomaly patterns would be the way forward and groundbreaking, I would be happy to help constructing the anomalies with you over the summer if and when I have time.

    I would also see a benefit to constructing delayed H500 anomalies to the MJO at Days 10-15 to see if there was correlation there. I am sure that Paul would be able to create a sub forum during construction to assist this if asked.

    It would be an exciting project Recretos.

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    @GP:

    You gave me quite of a homework there. Posted Image In my original plans, which go back to autumn 2012, I was deciding between the MJO and GWO climatologies. I basically decided to use the MJO over GWO, for just one particular reason: MJO is something that is being actively forecasted. And knowing the climatology of the phase which is being forecasted, that would be useful to some extent in forecasting. But what attracted me with the GWO, is its actual "connection" with the patterns, and when considering that it goes "hand in hand" with GLAAM, I guess that the climatologies would have more consistency.

    Now my main dilemma with the GWO as the choice, is in the usefulness of these climatologies. Is the GWO actually forecasted the way MJO is? Or is it forecasted by deriving it from other factors, like AAM tendencies, with combination with GWO? It is clearly not something that would be addressed as "basic" meteorology.

    The structure you suggested can be accomplished. For the sake of the objective data, I would then use data from around 1970 on. Basically that is when the satellite observations of synoptic scales of weather were getting more "advanced".

    I have answered Paul in a PM, and I would like to thank him to be open to assist in the matter. Posted Image Thanks also to Snowking for the kind suggestion. Posted Image

    So in February, I will make a few "dummy" runs, to first really determine the best methodology, than to try coding the dates into data files, ready to be uploaded to NOAA FTP servers as custom time-series, and of course, some minor but important details. I am a perfectionist by nature, so I want to do my best, to really deliver something quality, and unique in its own extent. I am already testing the coding of the datafiles and the FTP uploading and practical use.

    So I think now would be a good time to make a final agreement, if I start the GWO or MJO climatologies project. Posted Image So far the "big two" Posted Image have suggested GWO, and since I am 50/50, GWO looks to be the choice for now. I just need to find some nice complied database of the GWO in a text format. Posted Image

    The overall project is nothing special, but since it is time consuming, I really want to get around all the details before I actually start collecting data. I think we all know pretty well how important time is these days. Posted Image

    Best regards.

    Edit: Thank you Chionomaniac for being open to cooperate. :) And a special sub forum wouldn't be a bad idea. But as I said, I first have to determine the "what" and "how". :)

    And you posted basically just seconds before me. :D

    Edited by Recretos
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Good luck Recretos, also willing to chip in and help out if I can although ou might need to provide some education on the working the re-analysis pages and mathematics of it all, bakes my noodle when sigmas and deviations come into it !

    GWO text file link from the map room.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo.data.txt

    I think the GWO set would be an amazing analog set, more consistent vs the MJO which at times is muted out or inactive. As C wrote if completed this would be one helluva resource for the entire community following GCMs

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good luck, Recretos! Look forward to seeing whatever you discover...Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, blizzards, cold, thunderstorms, frosts, fog, general extreme weather
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl

    Hear, hear...

    I wish I had the time to get involved, but without question my support and respect go out to you Recretos and anyone else that tries to combine this vast data source into a workable resource and as already stated it would be invaluable in forth coming winters in particular. The MJO data would have done for me to be honest and to quote the internal ECMWF site in terms of the ECMWF 32 day data regarding the MJO;

    "The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of predictability on the monthly time scale"

    Perhaps this could be argued, but as ever I can see the reasoning behind this and the MJO data as part of the ECMWF 32 day model is particularly important especially when you can compare it to the overall anoms as per americanwx etc.

    Combining the GWO data is one hell of a task, but if you're going to do it then good luck and I look forward to the results without question!

    Kind regards to all, Matt.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    good luck recretos look forward to the outcome. Keep up the good work guys.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eccles, Greater manchester.
  • Location: Eccles, Greater manchester.

    Hey guys and galls.I'm but a lowly novice in this area of meteorology and as such still at the bottom rungs of the ladder of learning.This being so I would greatly appreciate if you could give me a concise description of the possible tropospheric patterns given the stratospheric conditions at this time . I suppose what I am asking is if one [or more] or the learned members could breakdown what could ,and is indeed the most probable, weather in the near future.I ,as are many on this site at this time of the year,am looking for cold weather ,or more specifically cold which favours the north west of britain-I'm thinking omega block[that is a greenland block ,yes?]

    Anyway ,thankyou for taking the time to read my rather convoluted post .Cheers,Graham[aka-greybing]

    Edited by greybing
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Hey guys and galls.I'm but a lowly novice in this area of meteorology and as such still at the bottom rungs of the ladder of learning.This being so I would greatly appreciate if you could give me a concise description of the possible tropospheric patterns given the stratospheric conditions at this time . I suppose what I am asking is if one [or more] or the learned members could breakdown what could ,and is indeed the most probable, weather in the near future.I ,as are many on this site at this time of the year,am looking for cold weather ,or more specifically cold which favours the north west of britain-I'm thinking omega block[that is a greenland block ,yes?]

    Anyway ,thankyou for taking the time to read my rather convoluted post .Cheers,Graham[aka-greybing]

    Hi Graham,

    I highlighted briefly yesterday in the MOD thread the strat support from the GFS, and to a lesser extent the ECM, for height rises to the NE and this has grown today.

    Firstly, it is worth pointing out that following the SSW we are now seeing a return to 'normal' conditions at the top of the stratosphere. The polar vortex is increasing in strength and this is slowly working its way down the stratosphere.

    Mean zonal winds are now at 60+m/s at 1 hpa and this is slowly descending.

    post-4523-0-59621200-1359793216_thumb.gi

    The forecast for the mid stratosphere still only increases the mean zonal wind to less than 10m/s at 10 hPa (whereas 20+m/s could reasonaably be expected) so these are still weak by day 10.

    post-4523-0-77062000-1359793337_thumb.gi

    Down to the most variable level at 100 hpa close to the troposphere and we see the disrupted vortex that could ( I will repeat this for those who fail to grasp - COULD) lead to some form of height rises to the NE. Today the ECM paints a far better picture than the GFS due to the extent that the Euro trough is forecast to head south, rather than slightly east as per the GFS.

    Here is the ECM 10 day forecast at 100 hPa with NE height rises indicated.

    post-4523-0-36925500-1359793615_thumb.gi

    Compare this to the latest GFS in respect of Euro trough.

    post-4523-0-33403500-1359793653_thumb.pn

    One thing to note though on both 100 hPA charts is the slight waning of our Canadian friend. Could it just possibly leave residence. We know what that could lead to if it does.........

    Any way Graham - no particular focus on the NW with these synoptics, but as ever get the cold in place and then see what happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Hi Graham,

    I highlighted briefly yesterday in the MOD thread the strat support from the GFS, and to a lesser extent the ECM, for height rises to the NE and this has grown today.

    Firstly, it is worth pointing out that following the SSW we are now seeing a return to 'normal' conditions at the top of the stratosphere. The polar vortex is increasing in strength and this is slowly working its way down the stratosphere.

    Mean zonal winds are now at 60+m/s at 1 hpa and this is slowly descending.

    post-4523-0-59621200-1359793216_thumb.gi

    The forecast for the mid stratosphere still only increases the mean zonal wind to less than 10m/s at 10 hPa (whereas 20+m/s could reasonaably be expected) so these are still weak by day 10.

    post-4523-0-77062000-1359793337_thumb.gi

    Down to the most variable level at 100 hpa close to the troposphere and we see the disrupted vortex that could ( I will repeat this for those who fail to grasp - COULD) lead to some form of height rises to the NE. Today the ECM paints a far better picture than the GFS due to the extent that the Euro trough is forecast to head south, rather than slightly east as per the GFS.

    Here is the ECM 10 day forecast at 100 hPa with NE height rises indicated.

    post-4523-0-36925500-1359793615_thumb.gi

    Compare this to the latest GFS in respect of Euro trough.

    post-4523-0-33403500-1359793653_thumb.pn

    One thing to note though on both 100 hPA charts is the slight waning of our Canadian friend. Could it just possibly leave residence. We know what that could lead to if it does.........

    Any way Graham - no particular focus on the NW with these synoptics, but as ever get the cold in place and then see what happens.

    i just like to add u said we would get deep cold from this strat warming event guess what i had great fun with my kids in the snow just recently here on the costa del southcoast and only joking about the deep cold because its been yet another year of so near yet so far in some cases.

    and the first bit of the post was a certain someone yesterday thought they would take a snipe and try to say something your never said!

    and as always this thread is the most exciting and best bit of research and bunch of people who put there free time into such an amazing and intresting feature of our atmosphere and long may it continue so a big thank you from me to all the net weather team.

    no greeny heights but theres plenty more winters to keep us going and with the sun due to sleep lets see where we go from now.

    i know winter may not have finsished with us yet so im watching with intrest and this thread not only can be used for winter surely the strat effects during summer can be of use.

    thanks again.

    Edited by model rollercoaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    I have finally perfected my data extraction system, which will speed up the process. Took me around 6 hours, and another hour to figure out how to convert the extracted data directly into a code form suitable for NOAA reanalysis system. I am not so familiar with excel and data editing, so that is the reason it took so long. So I am now "officially" launching my GWO project.

    - Phase space (all magnitudes) by month, 500 hPa GPH anomaly and mean, T 850 hPa anomaly.

    - Phase space (for magnitudes > 1SD) by month, 500 hPa GPH anomaly and mean, T 850 hPa anomaly.

    - Sifted by ENSO signal <1 >1 SD (perhaps take MEI as the measure data set?)

    You have to confirm if this is the most optimal configuration, so I adjust my data extraction to this configuration. And by magnitudes, you mean the AMP (amplitude) column in the GWO text data?

    And I have selected the data time span to be 1970-2013. I will not include the 58-69 period, because I kinda doubt the 100% accuracy.

    And about MEI, the data is in dual month format, basically like a 2 month average. So I am just going to take above 0.5 as El Nino and below -0.5 as La Nina. I am also going to use the ONI index to really determine the ENSO phases.

    One heck of an apple to bite in, but it should be done with some patience. Posted Image

    I apologise for being offtopic again. I really hope a new thread can be arranged for this matter. Posted Image

    Best regards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    So we're looking for 6 plots per phase per month 6 x 12 x 8. That is a lot of work. If you feel you have to cut back, I would go for amplitude >1 H5 anomalies first, then 850 hPa anomalies for amp >1.

    Best wishes for a stirling effort.

    I have finally perfected my data extraction system, which will speed up the process. Took me around 6 hours, and another hour to figure out how to convert the extracted data directly into a code form suitable for NOAA reanalysis system. I am not so familiar with excel and data editing, so that is the reason it took so long. So I am now "officially" launching my GWO project.

    You have to confirm if this is the most optimal configuration, so I adjust my data extraction to this configuration. And by magnitudes, you mean the AMP (amplitude) column in the GWO text data?

    Yes

    And I have selected the data time span to be 1970-2013. I will not include the 58-69 period, because I kinda doubt the 100% accuracy.

    And about MEI, the data is in dual month format, basically like a 2 month average. So I am just going to take above 0.5 as El Nino and below -0.5 as La Nina. I am also going to use the ONI index to really determine the ENSO phases.

    ONI is fine, and those definitions work well.

    One heck of an apple to bite in, but it should be done with some patience. Posted Image

    I apologise for being offtopic again. I really hope a new thread can be arranged for this matter. Posted Image

    Best regards.

    Edited by Glacier Point
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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    So we're looking for 6 plots per phase per month 6 x 12 x 8. That is a lot of work. If you feel you have to cut back, I would go for amplitude >1 H5 anomalies first, then 850 hPa anomalies for amp >1.

    Best wishes for a stirling effort.

    Well, the hardest part is extracting the data. Once I collect and code the data, I can plot what ever the reanalysis interface has to offer. Posted Image

    So the plan is:

    8 phases for each month, separated by Neutral, warm or cold ENSO phase. That means i have to create 8x12x3 custom coded data files for AMP≥1. The same number goes for a date set with the criteria AMP≤1. And shall you want all AMPs, it would be again the same number. So if I separate it by AMP criteria, that would mean 864 data files. Now you said the plots would be H500 mean, H500 anom, and T850 anom for N HEM. That would mean in total of 2592 graphics. Posted Image the size of one is around 35KB, so that would mean around 90MB of graphical data.

    Now my plan is:

    8 phases for each month, divided into 3 ENSO phases and divided into 2 AMP criteria, above or below 1. I dont think making a composite of all amps even has a meaning.

    I am already working with the data, and it is really confusing. Posted Image

    edit: I will also have all the collected data saved, so I can do custom plots or "on demand" plots if it may be required.

    Edited by Recretos
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